lengthy dicussion on Jays on XM

[GD]

I get Walker and Taillon mixed up all the time. Even did it when i was making trade offers to Spanky.

 

You didn't even get Taijuan and Neil mixed up, you got those two mixed up? Nice one

 

Taillon + Glasnow would be interesting. I doubt the Pirates say no to that though.

[DuckDuckGose]

You didn't even get Taijuan and Neil mixed up, you got those two mixed up? Nice one

 

Taillon + Glasnow would be interesting. I doubt the Pirates say no to that though.

 

Doesn't help the Jays enough to win right now IMO. Glasnow is too far away and I'm not as high on Taillon as others around here (I have him as more of a 2/3 going forward).

 

If Seattle would do it I would sen dJOse their way for Walker and Franklin though

[KingKat]

You didn't even get Taijuan and Neil mixed up, you got those two mixed up? Nice one

 

Taillon + Glasnow would be interesting. I doubt the Pirates say no to that though.

 

I never even though about Neil Walker. He's a huge hometown favourite though so even though the trade seems fair on paper, I doubt they would want to open a hole in their infield while also moving one of their most popular players.

[DuckDuckGose]

I wouldn't be that interested in Glasnow. Swap in Heredia, Hanson, or Polanco and I'd pull the trigger.

[KingKat]

Interesting. I'd take Glasnow over Hanson and Heredia.

 

I'd take Glasnow over any of them.

[GD]

Interesting. I'd take Glasnow over Hanson and Heredia.

 

Interesting, I'd take Hanson over Glasnow, but I'd take Glasnow over Heredia.

 

Quite the split opinion. I think Hanson would be a better fit too though.

[kgm1]

I listened to the program waiting to hear what JPA had to say . The one thing Duquette kept saying was he would have a hard time trading Bautista unless he got a great package . I was pissed when JPA was a no show . Duquette felt bautista might be able to talk Santana into signing there .

Is Bautista the guy you trade with his value down due to the injuries or do you sell high on Rasmus .

[KingKat]

Interesting, I'd take Hanson over Glasnow, but I'd take Glasnow over Heredia.

 

Quite the split opinion. I think Hanson would be a better fit too though.

 

It's a good system. Those are all good prospects. Glasnow *> Polanco > Hanson > Heredia for me but it's true that you could argue Hanson because of greater positional need.

[DuckDuckGose]

I wonder if you could even poach Russ Martin in the deal as well. Bautista for Hanson + Taillon + Martin would be great from the Jays side, might be too steep for Pitt to match.

[GD]

I wonder if you could even poach Russ Martin in the deal as well. Bautista for Hanson + Taillon + Martin would be great from the Jays side, might be too steep for Pitt to match.

 

I doubt they trade Martin. They really love him and justifiably so. Martin would equal Bautista's value next year or give even more, and Taillon and Hanson would be some damn fine icing on the cake.

[G-Snarls]

I doubt they trade Martin.

 

Funny... we could have had Martin for nothing but 17M over 2 years. But oh no... we had our catcher of the future already.

[DuckDuckGose]

He's only signed through 2014 and Tony Sanchez is supposed to be the future. MArtin is one of my favourite catchers so I'd want him in any deal! haha

[DuckDuckGose]

You gonna get flamed.

 

Martin had a good year. I wouldn't expect the same results in the AL East.

[GD]

You gonna get flamed.

 

Get at me brah

 

Martin was probably worth about 5.5 wins and JPA was probably worth about -1.5 wins so that's probably the difference between 74 wins and 81 wins. Ugh.

[GD]

Imagine if AA had signed Martin, and did whatever possible to secure Ryu and Chapman? LOOK AT OUR 2014 ROSTER:

 

And then had signed Sanchez last winter, or signed Darvish. SO MANY WHAT IFS. SO MANY TEARS.

[Boxcar]

It really is amazing that he was able to f*** up taking payroll from like 70 to 120. It just boggles the mind that all he was able to do with that cash was trade great assets for a bunch of declining players on backloaded contracts.

 

And then sit back and do smug interviews about his genius moves.

[The_DH]

Amazing how fast a ninja became a toad.

[ace3113]

And then had signed Sanchez last winter, or signed Darvish. SO MANY WHAT IFS. SO MANY TEARS.

 

To think how good we could have been if you could change 1 or 2 of AA's moves over the last 3 years.

 

Deck over Chris Sale

 

Not bidding high enough for Chapman

 

Not bidding high enough for Darvish

 

DJ Davis over Michael Wacha

 

Trading for Johnson instead of trying to sign Sanchez

 

Not trying to trade for Santana who the Royals got for a non-prospect.

 

Not signing Martin

 

Trading for Dickey

 

If 1 or 2 of these things ended up differently (particularly 1 and 3) I have to think we're a playoff team if not more.

[admin]

Would be funny if we did like the Marlins and blew it right up.

Without some major pitching help it's not the worst idea either.

[The_DH]

Was thinking the same. What good is a rotation with two older starters and nothing else?

[kgm1]

Would be funny if we did like the Marlins and blew it right up.

Without some major pitching help it's not the worst idea either.

 

 

I think you have to give it till the Trade deadline and see if a healthy team can make a run . Health killed this team last year and while some make us out to be 75 win talent we are actually better than that . BUT If this team self destructs health wise again then you sell .

 

With the right moves you could be right back in it in 3 years .

[The_DH]

I'd expect reasonable results from the two men in the rotation say 14 wins each, 16 tops. The pen should still be good enough but Happ should only be good for 7 wins and beyond that not much. Like last off season we only have two real starters.

[ace3113]

From Baseball Prospectus:

 

13. Ubaldo Jimenez

Position: SP

DOB: 1/22/1984

Height/Weight: 6'5" 210 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

2011-2013 Averages: 183 IP, 4.45 ERA, 2.04

 

Observations: Exiting June, Jimenez had a 4.63 ERA and little hope of earning a top-20 ranking. From that point on, he started 16 games, tossed 99 innings, struck out 109 batters, and held opponents to two runs or fewer 11 times. Jimenez finished with the best strikeout and strikeout-to-walk ratios of his career, and cemented his place as the most polarizing free agent of the winter. There's no doubting his impressive stuff—from a pair of low-to-mid-90s fastballs to a slider and splitter—or potential to be an impact starter. But just how much should teams trust him, and what kind of contract will he demand? There might not be a bigger boom-or-bust player on the market.

 

Prediction: Blue Jays. Toronto needs an impact starter and has shown a willingness to be bold in the past.

Random Number Generator's Prediction: Rangers

 

42. Geovany Soto

Position: C

DOB: 1/20/1983

Height/Weight: 6'1" 235 lbs.

Bats/Throws: R/R

2011-2013 Averages: .220/.299/.396

 

Observations: Soto spent the season with Texas, seldom playing as A.J. Pierzynski's backup. When he did appear, he mashed left-handed pitching. Soto still possesses good pull-side power, and his approach continues to result in healthy walk rates. However, his strikeout rate spiked last season, and he's never been an effective hitter against secondary pitches—particularly from right-handed hurlers. Defensively, Soto can be an overenthusiastic field general. He's a decent receiver, but his inaccurate throws limit his caught-stealing rate. Soto should get the chance to play more next season.

 

Prediction: Blue Jays. Toronto probably can't be thrilled with J.P. Arencibia's production.

Random Number Generator's Prediction: Rays

 

Toronto Blue Jays: Buy a starting catcher

 

J.P. Arencibia has started 324 games at catcher for the Blue Jays over the past three years, and has accumulated just 2.7 WARP in that time. The power is nice, and there’s some debate over whether he’s quite as bad defensively as his reputation would lead one to believe, but Arencibia finished 103 out of 103 in BVORP among catchers this season. He’s one of the worst starters in the American League, and Toronto should look for other options.

 

The Blue Jays figure to be pretty cash-strapped this offseason unless they plan on giving their payroll another bump. That should rule out McCann, the crown jewel of free agent backstops, and perhaps Jarrod Saltalamacchia. However, there are some lesser options that Toronto should be able to lure up north at a much lower cost.

 

Adding a third-tier catcher to a team that won 74 games last year may not seem terribly inspiring, but the odds that the Blue Jays suffer the same mix of injury and ineffectiveness as they did in 2013 aren’t great. This is a talented team with a winning nucleus in place. Rather than blow it up and entertain trading players like Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, or Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto should keep the band together for one more year with upgrades behind the plate and, if possible, in the middle of the rotation. They may have to get creative with the latter improvement, but the free agent pool allows them to address their catcher problem at a relatively light cost.

 

A.J. Pierzynski may not be a massive defensive upgrade over Arencibia, but he did hit .272/.297/.425, ranking 19th in catcher BVORP. Carlos Ruiz ranked one spot better, hitting .268/.320/.368 with better defense. Despite his age, he could land a two-year deal. Even options such as Dioner Navarro and Kurt Suzuki could conceivably represent upgrades, despite their inherent flaws. Even if Toronto does decide to attack the position via trade, catcher is a quick way for the Blue Jays to improve the periphery of a team that doesn’t yet need to change its core.

[G-Snarls]

From Baseball Prospectus:

 

... the odds that the Blue Jays suffer the same mix of injury and ineffectiveness as they did in 2013 aren’t great. This is a talented team with a winning nucleus in place. Rather than blow it up and entertain trading players like Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, or Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto should keep the band together for one more year with upgrades behind the plate and, if possible, in the middle of the rotation. They may have to get creative with the latter improvement, but the free agent pool allows them to address their catcher problem at a relatively light cost.

 

A.J. Pierzynski may not be a massive defensive upgrade over Arencibia, but he did hit .272/.297/.425, ranking 19th in catcher BVORP. Carlos Ruiz ranked one spot better, hitting .268/.320/.368 with better defense. Despite his age, he could land a two-year deal. Even options such as Dioner Navarro and Kurt Suzuki could conceivably represent upgrades, despite their inherent flaws. Even if Toronto does decide to attack the position via trade, catcher is a quick way for the Blue Jays to improve the periphery of a team that doesn’t yet need to change its core.

 

Yes, yes, YES

 

This core deserves another kick at the can, absolutely

 

A better catcher, an extra starter, a league average 2B plus some reasonable luck and this team is very good in 2014

[Sammy225]

I don't mind Soto as platoon catcher. I think if you add a guy like Salty who can handle left handed pitching. Both guys get rotated out and stay fresh.

 

I don't want to see them in on Jimenez but I can see AA over reacting and getting a guy like that and over valuing him. Don't mind him on a 3 year deal likely will get more though.

[z3r0s]

I honestly think Jimenez is the best option out there. We put ourselves in a spot where we NEED a starter and he is probably the best combination of contract term, ceiling, and durability out there.

 

I'd be happy with a 4 year deal on Ubaldo.

[z3r0s]

Meh, I think we'd regret that.

 

Whats the more desirable alternative?

I would certainly like Tanaka more, but I don't see it happening.

Garza is an ok option, but he has more durability concerns. He is more consistent (when pitching), but probably doesn't have the same upside).

I don't like the idea of Santana here at all. Flyball guy, low K's, not a huge upside, and probably cost more than Ubaldo.

AJ and Kuroda are likely staying put or retiring.

I would love to take a flier on Bartolo, but he isn't a top guy and we need one.

 

Base on our roster we basically have to 'go for it' next year. I just feel Ubaldo is the bets option we have available.

[G-Snarls]

Whats the more desirable alternative?

I would certainly like Tanaka more, but I don't see it happening.

Garza is an ok option, but he has more durability concerns. He is more consistent (when pitching), but probably doesn't have the same upside).

I don't like the idea of Santana here at all. Flyball guy, low K's, not a huge upside, and probably cost more than Ubaldo.

AJ and Kuroda are likely staying put or retiring.

I would love to take a flier on Bartolo, but he isn't a top guy and we need one.

 

Base on our roster we basically have to 'go for it' next year. I just feel Ubaldo is the bets option we have available.

 

Good options are lacking

 

Jiminez and Hudson may be our best bets among the free agents

[KingKat]

Melky looks about 40 pound overweight.(...) Next year I expect Morrow to go down, Reyes to miss 30+ games, Dickey to have a stiff back, and Melky to suck if he's stil fat.

 

The Melky thing was so damn weird. I realize that he had a health issue that no one knew about but it seems like him being so badly out of shape should have been foreseen by the team. I mean a lot of us wanted him to be signed but we hadn't seen him play in about half a year and didn't realize it had gotten this bad. Do the Jays have the same excuse? Don't they run physicals before acquiring players? Negotiations between Boston and Napoli where held up over issues around his physical and he turned out to be in much better overall health than Melky. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing but maybe this is a hint that there's some very basic stuff that is being mishandled in Toronto.

[Abomination]

The Melky thing was so damn weird. I realize that he had a health issue that no one knew about but it seems like him being so badly out of shape should have been foreseen by the team. I mean a lot of us wanted him to be signed but we hadn't seen him play in about half a year and didn't realize it had gotten this bad. Do the Jays have the same excuse? Don't they run physicals before acquiring players? Negotiations between Boston and Napoli where held up over issues around his physical and he turned out to be in much better overall health than Melky. Maybe I'm making something out of nothing but maybe this is a hint that there's some very basic stuff that is being mishandled in Toronto.

 

Melky looked like he was moving pretty good in the spring. I'm more than willing to chalk it up to the tumor.