Starting pitching wins championships

[G-Snarls]

We all know this but many forget some times. I do, sometimes until this point of the playoffs when you see good offenses like Boston and St. Louis getting reduced to 2-3 hit one run performances so often. These last two playoff rounds have reminded us that killer starting pitching trumps everything else. Yes you can break out with a bunch of runs here and there. But not very often.

 

Just about every game in the LCS and WS you're facing a Cy Young caliber ace. Every night it's a Verlander, Bucholz, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, Wainwright, Sabbathia, etc. It's no coincidence that all 4 remaining teams each have 2-3 top notch starting pitchers.

 

The Jays don't have any guys like that. We thought maybe Dickey Johnson and Morrow could be that good but guess what. It's not happening.

 

It's depressing when you look at the roster and the thread about it. We're agonizing over upgrades to defense and hitting, and hoping for another #2 caliber pitcher. AA himself has even said "maybe you can get it done with 5 number 2's"

 

Well, as far as I can tell, with 5 number 2's you can win 85-90 games. As long as your offense is really good. You can squeak in to the playoffs. You might even win a 5 game division series. But to ask any more than that of an ace-less team is asking too much. Just ask Oakland and Pittsburg or any number of other teams that just aren't quite good enough.

 

We need serious upgrades to the rotation or this team will never get over the top.

Edited October 16, 2013 by G-Snarls

[GD]

A wins is a win is a win.

[G-Snarls]

A wins is a win is a win.

 

I know. And you can stack up wins with good offense during the regular season against the Astros and White Sox of the world

 

Get to the second round of the playoffs and suddenly that same offense can struggle to score single runs. If you're not fighting fire with fire (killer SP) you just don't stand much of a chance.

[connorp]

I would be thrilled with 5 #2 SP. Unfortunately, we have 2 #3-4 guys and the rest #5 guys.

 

Playoffs are still a crapshoot though. Guys like Lester and Lackey can come up big.

 

Getting to the playoffs (and not just as the WC as thats a 1 game coin flip) is the goal.

 

That said, no doubt teams with aces have the advantage but stuff happens.

[Jays]

Playoffs are still a crapshoot though. Guys like Lester and Lackey can come up big.

 

Exactly. Are Lackey and Lester really all that more talented than guys like Dickey/Morrow/Johnson? They had better years this year but potential wise, I think they're around the same level. Johnson has the best career xFIP of all of them.

[theblujay]

Exactly. Are Lackey and Lester really all that more talented than guys like Dickey/Morrow/Johnson? They had better years this year but potential wise, I think they're around the same level. Johnson has the best career xFIP of all of them.

 

It seems like every player on the Red Sox was better than expected this year.

[G-Snarls]

Exactly. Are Lackey and Lester really all that more talented than guys like Dickey/Morrow/Johnson? They had better years this year but potential wise, I think they're around the same level. Johnson has the best career xFIP of all of them.

 

You're right. And I am over reacting a bit. There have just been an amazing number of great performances by the starting pitching in these playoffs and I'm worried about our rotation.

[GD]

It seems like every player on the Red Sox was better than expected this year.

 

Life's a bitch.

 

[And then you marry one.]

[G-Snarls]

It seems like every player on the Red Sox was better than expected this year.

 

It's clearly Farrell

 

#30WarManager

[G-Snarls]

Tigers starters' game scores in the ALCS: 78, 80, 79. They're 1-2 so far. The Tigers could not have asked for better starting pitching in the series... it's the offense that has let them down big time.

 

I can't believe how crappy Fielder has been over his two years of playoffs with them.

[ElNik2013]

I don't think the Blue Jays are trying to build a championship team, they just want to play well enough to keep interest going.

[Jays]

You're giving AA too much credit! They do want to build a championship team but are just really bad at it.

 

That's what happens when you place an importance on optics... or just have a GM that doesn't know what he's doing.

[BlueJayWay]

It seems like every player on the Red Sox was better than expected this year.

I don't think anyone on that team was worse than expected.

[SAAviour]

What I've noticed in these playoffs is how smooth a catcher like yadier Molina is behind the plate and how much he helps his pitchers. U know, almost like J.P. ....

[kgm1]

"""""" Starting pitching wins championships """""

 

And we don't have it . Only hope is Dickey has his hard knuckler , Morrow suddenly gets health and success and AA can somehow trade for a 3

 

AND we can sign a decent catcher

[baseballsss]

If i remember corretly the jays had one of the best pitching staffs in 07 and we didn't even sniff the playoffs. If pitching wins championships we should of atleast been contending..

[Jays]

If i remember corretly the jays had one of the best pitching staffs in 07 and we didn't even sniff the playoffs. If pitching wins championships we should of atleast been contending..

 

It was 08. We had Halladay, Burnett, Marcum, Mcgowan and Litsch. With a darn good bullpen that had Ben-Hur Tallet.

[Abomination]

If i remember corretly the jays had one of the best pitching staffs in 07 and we didn't even sniff the playoffs. If pitching wins championships we should of atleast been contending..

 

It's actually interesting seeing the difference in runs scored / allowed between then and now. Back in '07, only 4 teams gave up less than 700 runs and only 2 scored less than that. Last year, 20 teams gave up less than 700 runs (5 with less than 600), and 19 scored less than 700 (2 less than 600).

[fapaholic]

I wonder how JP would do against playoff type pitching??....shudder...

[Jays]

I wonder how JP would do against playoff type pitching??....shudder...

 

Imagine all those passed balls in one run play off games.

[jaysblue]

We all know this but many forget some times. I do, sometimes until this point of the playoffs when you see good offenses like Boston and St. Louis getting reduced to 2-3 hit one run performances so often. These last two playoff rounds have reminded us that killer starting pitching trumps everything else. Yes you can break out with a bunch of runs here and there. But not very often.

 

Just about every game in the LCS and WS you're facing a Cy Young caliber ace. Every night it's a Verlander, Bucholz, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, Wainwright, Sabbathia, etc. It's no coincidence that all 4 remaining teams each have 2-3 top notch starting pitchers.

 

The Jays don't have any guys like that. We thought maybe Dickey Johnson and Morrow could be that good but guess what. It's not happening.

 

It's depressing when you look at the roster and the thread about it. We're agonizing over upgrades to defense and hitting, and hoping for another #2 caliber pitcher. AA himself has even said "maybe you can get it done with 5 number 2's"

 

Well, as far as I can tell, with 5 number 2's you can win 85-90 games. As long as your offense is really good. You can squeak in to the playoffs. You might even win a 5 game division series. But to ask any more than that of an ace-less team is asking too much. Just ask Oakland and Pittsburg or any number of other teams that just aren't quite good enough.

 

We need serious upgrades to the rotation or this team will never get over the top.

 

Well, in a 5 game or 7 game series, and if the Jays have Morrow and JJ healthy and at their best during that time, they both can pitch like a Cy Young winner. Over the course of a full season that's a lot to ask from both especially with their injury history.

 

I do agree, the Blue Jays still need an ace and a solid No. 2 (which you cross your fingers its Dickey, or the Jays catch lightning in the bottle with Morrow staying healthy or resigning JJ).

[jaysblue]

It was 08. We had Halladay, Burnett, Marcum, Mcgowan and Litsch. With a darn good bullpen that had Ben-Hur Tallet.

 

In the postseason, I've said it time before that rotation would be incredible.

[G-Snarls]

It's actually interesting seeing the difference in runs scored / allowed between then and now. Back in '07, only 4 teams gave up less than 700 runs and only 2 scored less than that. Last year, 20 teams gave up less than 700 runs (5 with less than 600), and 19 scored less than 700 (2 less than 600).

 

Wow. Yes, we really are in a pitching-dominated era again it seems.

[Olerud363]

We all know this but many forget some times. I do, sometimes until this point of the playoffs when you see good offenses like Boston and St. Louis getting reduced to 2-3 hit one run performances so often. These last two playoff rounds have reminded us that killer starting pitching trumps everything else. Yes you can break out with a bunch of runs here and there. But not very often.

 

Just about every game in the LCS and WS you're facing a Cy Young caliber ace. Every night it's a Verlander, Bucholz, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, Wainwright, Sabbathia, etc. It's no coincidence that all 4 remaining teams each have 2-3 top notch starting pitchers.

 

The Jays don't have any guys like that. We thought maybe Dickey Johnson and Morrow could be that good but guess what. It's not happening.

 

It's depressing when you look at the roster and the thread about it. We're agonizing over upgrades to defense and hitting, and hoping for another #2 caliber pitcher. AA himself has even said "maybe you can get it done with 5 number 2's"

 

Well, as far as I can tell, with 5 number 2's you can win 85-90 games. As long as your offense is really good. You can squeak in to the playoffs. You might even win a 5 game division series. But to ask any more than that of an ace-less team is asking too much. Just ask Oakland and Pittsburg or any number of other teams that just aren't quite good enough.

 

We need serious upgrades to the rotation or this team will never get over the top.

 

I wouldn't think this is true at all. As recently as 2011 the Cardinals won the world series. Squeaked in as the wild card, 8th in pitching, 1st in offense. A bunch of 2, 3s as starters. Won a World Series game 16-7, won another 10-9.

 

And actually the 2012 Giants were an offense team, though it didn't appear so because of their park, 106 ops+, 96 era+, beat Verlander 8-3 to set the tone in the Series, admittedly there was a couple of 2-0 games, but sometimes it-s 11-5, sometimes it's 6-4, sometimes it's 1-0, just the way it works.

 

I've mentioned the 93 Jays team... not because it is super unique (ie 2011 Cardinals) but just because it is the last real good team we had, and everyone over 30 should remember it... Good offense, great bullpen, mediocre starters... won world series games 8-5, 10-3, 15-14, and 8-6.

 

What you say is not true. You seem like a reasonable guy... I don't understand why you think something that isn't true. A win is a win, a run is a run.

 

I'm trying to tone it down a bit... but these are things I used to rant about... it's not you, it's humanity, a lot of people are wired funny and like to believe things that aren't true, we could get into religion, finance, medicine, politics, all kinds of topics, humans, even intelligent ones believe things that aren't true, just the way we are.

 

Guess I'll just have to accept it and stop going crazy at all this.

[Boxcar]

We all know this but many forget some times. I do, sometimes until this point of the playoffs when you see good offenses like Boston and St. Louis getting reduced to 2-3 hit one run performances so often. These last two playoff rounds have reminded us that killer starting pitching trumps everything else. Yes you can break out with a bunch of runs here and there. But not very often.

 

Just about every game in the LCS and WS you're facing a Cy Young caliber ace. Every night it's a Verlander, Bucholz, Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, Wainwright, Sabbathia, etc. It's no coincidence that all 4 remaining teams each have 2-3 top notch starting pitchers.

 

The Jays don't have any guys like that. We thought maybe Dickey Johnson and Morrow could be that good but guess what. It's not happening.

 

It's depressing when you look at the roster and the thread about it. We're agonizing over upgrades to defense and hitting, and hoping for another #2 caliber pitcher. AA himself has even said "maybe you can get it done with 5 number 2's"

 

Well, as far as I can tell, with 5 number 2's you can win 85-90 games. As long as your offense is really good. You can squeak in to the playoffs. You might even win a 5 game division series. But to ask any more than that of an ace-less team is asking too much. Just ask Oakland and Pittsburg or any number of other teams that just aren't quite good enough.

 

We need serious upgrades to the rotation or this team will never get over the top.

 

No offense, but this whole post is another of those completely disprovable narratives that guys like Tim McCarver and Rick Sutcliffe love so much.

[G-Snarls]

No offense, but this whole post is another of those completely disprovable narratives that guys like Tim McCarver and Rick Sutcliffe love so much.

 

I know. I really do.

 

It's the old "good pitching beats good hitting" adage which in unprovable crap. You just have to outscore the other team, it doesn't matter how. I've just been having rotation envy.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

I can't believe how crappy Fielder has been over his two years of playoffs with them.

 

That Fielder contract is going to look really, really bad in a few years. 24 million to a fat guy for the next 7 years. The guy has 2 XBH in 89 playoff plate appearances so far in his time with the Tigers .

 

That's a massive bust right there.

[G-Snarls]

I should have just called the thread "The playoffs will be difficult to make"

[Sammy225]

That Fielder contract is going to look really, really bad in a few years. 24 million to a fat guy for the next 7 years. The guy has 2 XBH in 89 playoff plate appearances so far in his time with the Tigers .

 

That's a massive bust right there.

 

You could tell just by this year that he has already started his regression. If I am paying a guy over 200m dollars then I expect more than what he did this year. I would say 2 years this deal is going to look horrific.

[G-Snarls]

That Fielder contract is going to look really, really bad in a few years. 24 million to a fat guy for the next 7 years. The guy has 2 XBH in 89 playoff plate appearances so far in his time with the Tigers .

 

That's a massive bust right there.

 

Fat guy with serious personal problems according to team mates