Don't Get Your Hopes Up - Blue Jays Scouted Tanaka (Elliot)

[G-Snarls]

AA is pissed we missed out on Darvish. With a larger budget, AA goes after Tanaka.

Tanaka flops.

Blue Jays destiny.

 

I wish this wasn't so plausible

[ace3113]

BA's latest report on Tanaka.

 

Masahiro Tanaka Game Report: Sept. 6

 

The Game

 

Sept. 6: Tohoku Rakuten Eagles 3, Nippon Ham Fighters 2

 

Tanaka helped the Eagles retain their stronghold on first place in the Pacific League and maintained his Nippon Professional Baseball lead in ERA (1.24) en route to what will likely be his second Sawamura Award, the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young. According to Japanese media outlet Sponichi, the Braves, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox and Yankees were among the teams with scouts in attendance.

 

Tanaka’s Line

 

9 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 11 SO, 128 pitches

 

Season Stats

 

20-0, 1.24 ERA, 23 G, 23 GS, 181 IP, 142 H, 6 HR, 27 BB, 156 SO

 

Game Report

 

After lacking the typical crispness on his pitches in his previous outing, Tanaka returned to the mound on Friday with a swing-and-miss fastball and excellent splitter against the Fighters.

 

Tanaka generally pitched off his fastball, which parked at 90-94 mph for most of the game. The majority of Tanaka’s strikeouts came on his fastball, which he ramped up to 93-96 in the ninth inning to preserve the Eagles’ one-run lead.

 

Eight of Tanaka’s 11 strikeouts were swinging, with most of those swing-throughs coming on his fastball rather than his splitter, which is typically his out pitch. While just two of Tanaka’s strikeouts came on his 84-89 mph splitter (including a called strike three to end the game), it was also a swing-and-miss pitch that had much sharper movement than his last outing. Tanaka’s splitter had its usual plus-plus diving action when he threw it well, and the best the Fighters could do against Tanaka’s splitter was foul it off or hit it into the ground.

 

Tanaka’s slider was a solid third pitch at times, although it did get him into some trouble when he left it up in the zone. Facing Michel Abreu in the second inning, Tanaka got behind the Pacific League home run leader 2-0 with a pair of sliders that missed away. Tanaka came back with a third slider that hung up in the zone out over the plate, allowing Abreu to extend his arms and smash it for a home run.

 

Three consecutive base hits allowed the second run to score in the fourth inning, but otherwise Tanaka didn’t run into much trouble the rest of the game.

 

[admin]

Dodgers don't even waste time with sending scouts, they'll just send a boatload of money and get him. Ryu worked out for them, why stop now?

That splitter looks filthy.

[Convo]

. According to Japanese media outlet Sponichi, the Braves, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Red Sox and Yankees were among the teams with scouts in attendance.

 

Well that's that

[KingKat]

Dodgers don't even waste time with sending scouts, they'll just send a boatload of money and get him. Ryu worked out for them, why stop now?

That splitter looks filthy.

 

Life is sweet when money is no object.

[wilko]

Why spend all the money on a bidding war? Just go after Daisuke. #ForgottonAznStud

[Frenchsoup]

What do you guys think the winning posting fee will be? 40 mill?

[Abomination]

What do you guys think the winning posting fee will be? 40 mill?

 

I would think more in the 25M range, but hard to say for sure

[Laika]

How hard does Tanaka throw? I remember reading that he has like, a 70 splitter and a 60 slider.

 

I think I read 90-91 mph, but that could mean a lot of things. Maxing out at 91/92, or sitting 90/91 and touching 96?

[Laika]

What do you guys think the winning posting fee will be? 40 mill?

 

Yeah.

 

Ryu was 25.xxM. Have to think that Tanaka will be a bit more than that, based on age, league, and production.

 

I'd probably split the difference between Darvish and Ryu and say ~38M.

 

I don't really think it's a great investment. GMs are going to have an illusion of safety based on recent imports like Darvish, Ryu, and Iwakuma who have all succeeded wildly.

 

Being said, I don't know enough about Tanaka to have a very informed opinion. The last comment there was about the Asian pitching market in general, not necessarily specific to this guy.

[o2cui2i]

he better be MLB ready because the jays farm system hasn't seen an arm they cant ruin.

[G-Snarls]

What do you guys think the winning posting fee will be? 40 mill?

 

That's exactly the amount I was thinking.

[G-Snarls]

Why spend all the money on a bidding war? Just go after Daisuke. #ForgottonAznStud

 

He's available!

[kcjaysfan]

2011 fip: 1.90

2012: 1.87

2013: 2.40

 

Really good but not trending the right way now.

 

There is no trend in that data.

[G-Snarls]

Why spend all the money on a bidding war? Just go after Daisuke. #ForgottonAznStud

 

http://cache.boston.com/images/bostondirtdogs//Headline_Archives/bdd_dice-K_11.16.06.jpg

[KingKat]

What do you guys think the winning posting fee will be? 40 mill?

 

Kei Igawa went for 26 million (lol) and Daisuke infamously went for 51 million. Thirty-Five to Fourty for this guy seems about right.

[DuckDuckGose]

How hard does Tanaka throw? I remember reading that he has like, a 70 splitter and a 60 slider.

 

I think I read 90-91 mph, but that could mean a lot of things. Maxing out at 91/92, or sitting 90/91 and touching 96?

 

The BA scouting report ace posted earlier today said Tanaka touched 93-96mph. From what I've read he sits in the low 90's that's paired with a plus slider and mid 70's splitter.

[kgm1]

Yeah.

 

Ryu was 25.xxM. Have to think that Tanaka will be a bit more than that, based on age, league, and production.

 

I'd probably split the difference between Darvish and Ryu and say ~38M.

 

I don't really think it's a great investment. GMs are going to have an illusion of safety based on recent imports like Darvish, Ryu, and Iwakuma who have all succeeded wildly.

 

Being said, I don't know enough about Tanaka to have a very informed opinion. The last comment there was about the Asian pitching market in general, not necessarily specific to this guy.

 

Agreed , Not really a good investment IF you could put that money plus his signing amt towards getting a top of rotation type guy like Garza. Unfortunately we don't seem to be able to get those guys . I really wanted Darvish but Hindsight is always 20 20 . Can we we attract a De La Rosa ?? possibly but Garza Types ? Americans want to play in the US .I just think AA strikes out again in the FA market and I have no faith in Morrow or Romero so WTF , go get this kid .

[G-Snarls]

Agreed , Not really a good investment IF you could put that money plus his signing amt towards getting a top of rotation type guy like Garza. Unfortunately we don't seem to be able to get those guys . I really wanted Darvish but Hindsight is always 20 20 . Can we we attract a De La Rosa ?? possibly but Garza Types ? Americans want to play in the US .I just think AA strikes out again in the FA market and I have no faith in Morrow or Romero so WTF , go get this kid .

 

Good point

 

Heck, even the best Canadian player in baseball has zero interest in playing here

[GD]

For those of us who aren't aware of Tanaka's skills, here's a really nice profile on him from Ben Nicholson-Smith on Sportsnet.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/impact-starter-tanaka-may-be-headed-for-mlb/

 

Such a good writer.

[torontofan]

If the Jays sign him, they pump him up to the media as being an instant "ace" and he flops for the next 5 years pitching as #5 pitcher.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

AA will screw it up somehow.

[reedjohnsonfan]

For those of us who aren't aware of Tanaka's skills, here's a really nice profile on him from Ben Nicholson-Smith on Sportsnet.

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/impact-starter-tanaka-may-be-headed-for-mlb/

 

Such a good writer.

 

Thanks that was interesting, his splitter looks really good but it looks like he's basically a 2-pitch guy. His FB does touch 96 apparently. He should be a good pitcher, not the level of Darvish though.

 

"Jonah Keri of Grantland recently suggested that winning the bidding for Tanaka and signing him could cost a team between $62-110 million total."

 

Wow expert analysis there Jonah.

[Errorcebia]

I think the Jays waste their time and money 'scouting' these players just so that they look like a legitimate organization.

[kgm1]

I think the Jays waste their time and money 'scouting' these players just so that they look like a legitimate organization.

AA wants his people to see all good free agents to compare for future reference . Tinnish going there means nothing . in fact because AA didn't go with them I would suggest we aren't in the mix

[G-Snarls]

AA wants his people to see all good free agents to compare for future reference . Tinnish going there means nothing . in fact because AA didn't go with them I would suggest we aren't in the mix

 

Did AA got to Japan to see Darvish?

[DuckDuckGose]

Did AA got to Japan to see Darvish?

 

Ya with his top scouting staff.

[G-Snarls]

Ya with his top scouting staff.

 

Benefit-of-retrospect-useless-repeated-annoying-rant warning...

 

Nothing would have helped this team more than having signed Darvish 2 off seasons ago, and therefore having had no need to trade for R A Dickey this past season. We'd now have Darvish, Syndergaard and D'Arnaud, and Arencibia might have lost his job in July.

 

F me.

 

Sigh...

Edited September 11, 2013 by G-Snarls

[kgm1]

Ya with his top scouting staff.

 

AA has gone to watch all top international FAs but he might still go and get a look if the kid gets posted . I just thought it weird that Tinnish went without him.

[kgm1]

Benefit-of-retrospect-useless-repeated-annoying-rant warning...

 

Nothing would have helped this team more than having signed Darvish 2 off seasons ago, and therefore having had no need to trade for R A Dickey this past season. We'd now have Darvish, Syndergaard and D'Arnaud, and Arencibia might have lost his job in July.

 

F me.

 

Sigh...

 

Just a quote from John Manuel during BA,s Minors POY chat

 

" Izzy (New York): How many pitching prospects (and which ones) do you prefer to Noah Syndergaard? "

 

 

John Manuel: I'd start with Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker and C.J. Edwards. Andrew Heaney and Michael Wacha would be in that competition, could be one or two others that I'm not thinking of, but it's not a long list. He's in the top 5-7 pitching prospects in the game; just got a Roy Halladay comp from a FSL manager today.

 

We will be talking about that bad deal for the next 10 to 15 years