Can Ryan Goins stick?

[flafson]

Sorry if this was posted already: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/tor/blue-jays-ryan-goins-putting-in-extra-effort-to-improve-offensively?ymd=20140304&content_id=68715210&vkey=news_tor

 

"When I met with him it was awkward, it was something new, something different," Goins said. "It was something I had to buy into, and just keep doing on a daily basis. After a couple of weeks it started to become second nature and I feel like it's natural now. When I go into a game, I don't feel like I have to do anything different than what I've been doing. I don't have to think about it, I can be free and just play my game."

 

Don't you guys find it odd that he has been in the system for years and only now someone is changing his mechanics?

[CHRIS]

Don't you guys find it odd that he has been in the system for years and only now someone is changing his mechanics?

 

Are you new? Par for the course for the Prospect Development Machine that is the Toronto Blue Jays organization.

[Caper]

I think this thread should be published as a book.

 

Ryan Goins: Stick?

[Olerud363]

BS much?

 

Actually I don't. I got trashed in the Hech thread for predicting a Goins line of .260 .305 .340 or so. Some f-bombs were dropped. "Thanks for the laugh" by JFAS, "f***y wilding optimistic" by Gordie Dougy. It's all in the context of a larger stupid argument and in the end I conceded this was an optimistic prediction.

 

BP has Goins at .244 .286 .354... the average of the projection systems (BP, Steamer, Oliver, FANS, ZIPS) is something like .240 .280 .330.

 

So I am basically predicting a few extra singles fall in and maybe a couple more walks. This could easily happen. People aren't thinking straight on Goins.

 

The negative equivalent of my prediction would be .220 .260 .300. It's about the same distance from the concensus of the projection systems. I have a feeling nobody would blink an eye for that projection. People are not thinking straight on Goins.

[Olerud363]

Lol, that whole post... In the GDT the other day Gruber was dropping Fbombs like you wouldn't believe and calling other people idiots, squirrels(?), retarded, etc. and all the "Non-Goins" people were staying completely calm.

 

This entire bet is a coin flip. If Gruber is crazy overconfident on his view then he is wrong.

[flafson]

It's not a coin flip. Ryan Goins is not an above-replacement major leaguer. It doesn't matter how committed to him the Blue Jays seem be, or how much play this thread gets. He can't hit.

 

That was true when they didn't teach him how to hold the bat and take a swing. The guy was holding the bat like he's 2 meters tall and tried to take a whack at everything he saw. Pitchers picked up on the fact that he didn't know what he was doing and was very slow to the ball so they threw him balls to the ground a la JPA and he tried to whack them.

They did a ton of changes on him recently and you can see that he's at least getting quality at bats. Will he get better results than his minor league careers? Only time will tell.

[flafson]

I'm not really in the middle of the Goins debate. I think the whole thing is overblown, and I do think the insecure crew does lash out in their "if you say anything different than us, we'll trash you like insecure kids trying to be cool, but please look at us as being reasoned and in the know" way. They don't understand how dumb they look trying to be smart. And I stress "trying."

 

But that's neither here nor there regarding my comment above.

 

I'm talking about Gruber suggesting a bet that lacks integrity. The reality is, if Goins sucks ... if he really, really sucks ... there's a good chance he doesn't log many PAs. And at the heart of this bet is "will he really, really suck? or will he be better than utterly worthless (anywhere from poor to great)?" So, fine ... if your stance is that he won't really, really suck, then you take one side of the bet, and you have that whole range of performance from which to benefit or win. If he's poor, you win. If he's marginal, you win. If he's good, you win. If he's great, you win. All the other side has, in order to win, is for him to really, really suck. That's it. And yet you want to set a minimum PA threshold to further limit their ability to win, when if he really, really sucks he'll likely have limited playing time? Now you're just being unfair.

 

It's one thing to take advantage of undeserved hubris. It's another to just be slimy. That's all.

 

The key in the bet was that it's 99% guarantee that Goins will be very poor, therefore you adjust those chances by giving him a minimum PA's. Fact is, unless he gets hurt, the bet should stand with or without those minimum PA's.

[Olerud363]

It's not a coin flip. Ryan Goins is not an above-replacement major leaguer. It doesn't matter how committed to him the Blue Jays seem be, or how much play this thread gets. He can't hit.

 

The only system that has him negative is Steamer and just slightly at -0.1. Oliver has him at 0.7 (600 plate appearances), Zips 0.4, baseball prospectus 0.3 (250 PA). So the projection systems don't see him as "not an above-replacement player". So that's an argument you'll have to take to the projection system guys and offer them suggestions on how to rectify this error.

 

It's a coin flip because the bet also has a plate appearance criteria, which Goins will only reach if he's playing well.

 

It's a coin flip because Goins projects as a defense first player, and I doubt the projection system or the geniuses on this board know exactly how to predict a future WAR for that type of player.

[flafson]

Goins has logged 2286 professional plate appearances over five seasons. You're willing to throw all of that out just because the Blue Jays say they adjusted his swing? That's ridiculous. Talent is what makes baseball players good. Ryan Goins is a bad hitter because he doesn't have the physical gifts necessary to hit at the major league level.

 

I think he has the physical gifts to hit in major league level. I don't throw it all away, if you check his numbers you will see they are all over the place, the kid didn't know what he was doing and since he wasn't a number 1 pick or signed for a huge bonus, the Jays didn't bother with him that much. I'm actually surprised that he reached AAA at all.

[NorthOf49]

I think he has the physical gifts to hit in major league level. I don't throw it all away, if you check his numbers you will see they are all over the place, the kid didn't know what he was doing and since he wasn't a number 1 pick or signed for a huge bonus, the Jays didn't bother with him that much. I'm actually surprised that he reached AAA at all.

I'm not sure what makes you think that. Are there specific things you've identified in him that make him look like a major league hitter?

[Sammy225]

He aims up the middle now bro.

 

Aiming your hits is huge lol. f*** me I forget what f*** nut said that on the old board.

[flafson]

Not for age vs. level. He's consistently around 55-65 mlb equivalent wRC+

 

That may be true but if you look at every level where he had more than 300 PA's then he was able to handle himself enough to suggest (to me at least) that there is potential.

2010 (A) 338 PA's 122 wRC+

2011 (A+) 398 PA's 109 wRC+

2012 (AA) 618 PA's 105 wRC+

2010 (AAA) 418 PA's 90 wRC+

 

To me, he was able to hold his own. With the new help he's getting now, i think he can at least hold his own in the MLB level. That plus his defense should hopefully give him a decent WAR.

[flafson]

I'm not sure what makes you think that. Are there specific things you've identified in him that make him look like a major league hitter?

 

He's quicker to the ball, more balanced/relaxed, doesn't whack at everything, takes pitches and aims the middle. I think almost every swing he had in spring training so far was to the middle. Last year he was only pulling the ball.

[flafson]

wat

 

A swing that resulted with the ball being in play.

[NorthOf49]

That may be true but if you look at every level where he had more than 300 PA's then he was able to handle himself enough to suggest (to me at least) that there is potential.

2010 (A) 338 PA's 122 wRC+

2011 (A+) 398 PA's 109 wRC+

2012 (AA) 618 PA's 105 wRC+

2010 (AAA) 418 PA's 90 wRC+

 

To me, he was able to hold his own. With the new help he's getting now, i think he can at least hold his own in the MLB level. That plus his defense should hopefully give him a decent WAR.

If we're looking at minor league stats, then why not endorse Mike McCoy instead?

 

2009 (AAA): 572 PA's 120 wRC+

2010 (AAA): 259 PA's 132 wRC+

2011 (AAA): 186 PA's 123 wRC+

2012 (AAA): 349 PA's 101 wRC+

2013 (AAA): 430 PA's 100 wRC+

 

Airmiles has never been a below-average AAA hitter! Decent defense too.

[flafson]

If we're looking at minor league stats, then why not endorse Mike McCoy instead?

 

2009 (AAA): 572 PA's 120 wRC+

2010 (AAA): 259 PA's 132 wRC+

2011 (AAA): 186 PA's 123 wRC+

2012 (AAA): 349 PA's 101 wRC+

2013 (AAA): 430 PA's 100 wRC+

 

Airmiles has never been a below-average AAA hitter! Decent defense too.

 

Good example.

Last time i checked, they did try McCoy for a while and he wasn't lights out with his glove like Goins is. But yea i guess it's similar.

Although IMO, Goins is more physically gifted than McCoy.

[Sammy225]

Good example.

Last time i checked, they did try McCoy for a while and he wasn't lights out with his glove like Goins is. But yea i guess it's similar.

Although IMO, Goins is more physically gifted than McCoy.

 

No they never tried him as a starter at all. He was the man that collected a lot of air miles to be a bench player or AAA starter. Never ever was appointed a starting spot ever.

[Olerud363]

If we're looking at minor league stats, then why not endorse Mike McCoy instead?

 

2009 (AAA): 572 PA's 120 wRC+

2010 (AAA): 259 PA's 132 wRC+

2011 (AAA): 186 PA's 123 wRC+

2012 (AAA): 349 PA's 101 wRC+

2013 (AAA): 430 PA's 100 wRC+

 

Airmiles has never been a below-average AAA hitter! Decent defense too.

 

McCoy is 32. And didn't start doing anything until hitting Colorada Springs and Vegas in his late 20s. I know wRC+ is adjusted for that.

 

At age 25 he was actualy behind Goins.

 

Which brings up another point. The next 2 or 3 years may be Ryan Goins at his very f***ing best. Which again isn't that good. But if you're ever going to play Ryan Goins 2014-2016 will be the years to do it. Not 2020 after he's gone through a couple of aaa west coast cities and tore it up but lost his D.

[KingKat]

He was the man that collected a lot of air miles to be a bench player or AAA starter. Never ever was appointed a starting spot ever.

 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think that would be a great job for Goins. I don't mean that as a put down. Having a quality defensive middle infiedler who, depending on roster needs, can be taxied back and forth (not to Vegas like McCoy but simply to Buffalo) would be a great assett for the club. He'd be a better Mike McCoy than Mike McCoy.

[Olerud363]

What about Jim Negrych? You should endorse him.

 

2008 (A+): 453 PA 162 wRC+

2009 (AA): 378 PA 107 wRC+

2010 (AA): 266 PA 104 wRC+

2010 (AAA): 191 PA 116 wRC+

2011 (AA): 458 PA 111 wRC+

2012 (AAA): 324 PA 113 wRC+

2013 (AAA): 437 PA 111 wRC+

 

This guy has hit everywhere he's gone! And he's said to be a decent defender at second. The projections actually like Negrych much more than Goins too: 77, 80, 82 wRC+'s are projected. ZIPs says .254/.312/.346. That's better than Olerud's pie-in-the-sky Goins projection!

 

Mccoy I don't like because of his age. Negrych?? As a hitter a step above Goins obviously. Along the same lines as the Goins predictions, the optimistic (but realistic) Negrych projection would be .280 .340 .370 or so...

 

Something like Joe Inglett??

 

I'd be fine with Negrych over Goins. 2 years 11 months older, but if he is better take him. If they choose Goins I assume

 

a) The Jays have some reasonable data that shows Goins defense is REALLY projected to be good.

The Jays are idiots. They aren't looking at stats or any advanced methodolgy. They view Goins as a athletic, defense-whiz, who will learn to hit, and view Negrych as a shiftless, worthless minor league scrub because... well no reason really the scouts just like to spew s*** around and AA believes it.

 

If AA should be fired right now.

[Olerud363]

Using my age level wRC+ projections for this year:

 

Goins 59

Negrych 76

McCoy 71

 

What about Kawasaki?

[Olerud363]

Or that Negrych isn't in the org!

 

So who is plan C again?? Brett Carroll?? Brent Morral?? Kawasaki I guess. Getz?

 

A quick glance at these guys show them all projected around the same level as Goins. Maybe a bit less actually.

[Olerud363]

Kawasaki has 81 PA in the minors lol.

 

But he has a lot of playing time in Japan, some in the majors? Should be enough data for a projection. Not that I expect your system to handle everything.

[GD]

Could you treat Japan as AAA?

[Olerud363]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think that would be a great job for Goins. I don't mean that as a put down. Having a quality defensive middle infiedler who, depending on roster needs, can be taxied back and forth (not to Vegas like McCoy but simply to Buffalo) would be a great assett for the club. He'd be a better Mike McCoy than Mike McCoy.

 

Yes. This. The problem is that if Ryan Goins is a starter then what happens when Reyes goes down?? Or Lawrie?? Or Ryan Goins??

 

So at some point there will be Ryan Goins and Gertz or Kawasaki hitting 1 and 9?? If we signed Drew, between Lawrie, Reyes, and Drew there would still be 400 at bats for Goins to enjoy. And that is optimistic health for those guys. There is about 2000 plate appearances for 3 positions. Lawrie, Reyes, and Drew would be projected for 1500 or so.

 

So now we have Lawrie, Reyes, Goins, still projected for 1500, and 500 plate appearances of playing time going to the next guy down,.

[flafson]

Is this your first spring training as a baseball fan? Pretty much every bad player shows up to camp talking about new tweaks/approaches they've been working on. It's best to just disregard all of that.

 

It's one thing for the player to talk about it and another for the whole organization to talk about it. They obviously have a lot invested in him now so we will soon find out who was right. Obviously if they miss with him then that's a big nail in the coffin for this FO.

[Sammy225]

Is this your first spring training as a baseball fan? Pretty much every bad player shows up to camp talking about new tweaks/approaches they've been working on. It's best to just disregard all of that.

 

Gabe Gross award looks like it is still up for grabs though this year.

[Jimcanuck]

Far rather have Goins than McCoy.... McCoy is a supersub that plays a lot of positions, at replacement level. At least with Goins there is the golden (?) glove.

 

I'd prefer Kawasaki at 2B over either of them, easily.

[The Cats Ass]

I think AA is thinking if he throws a dozen AAAA 2B on the field atleast 1 of them could put up a career year and provide average stats and defence there for the year.

[KingKat]

 

The new guys we have in camp are Jared Goedert, Andy Burns and Steve Tolleson. All have much better MiLB stats than Goins and better projections. What does your projection thing say for those guys?

 

Edit: Kevin Nolan too.

 

Given the lack of depth at 2B and 3B, I could see Andy Burns becoming an important role player for the Jays.