Can Ryan Goins stick?

[Howard Roark]

There's some degree of random variation in virtually everything.

 

It seems to be one of the laws of the universe that no matter the issue being debated, the answer is always "a little from column A, and a little from column B, and C, and D, and......"

[theblujay]

I enjoy how you change the topic when you know you're out of things to bitch about to an already resolved issue.

 

Oh this topic is far from over. Someone with more knowledge tell me if I screw this up

 

Goins UZR/150: 33.1 in 260 innings

 

That's not historical, it actually only 3rd best this year.

 

Uribe: 35.3

Victorino: 35.3

Parra: 32.3

Machado: 31.8

Pollock: 28.6

Gomez: 27.2

 

Now someone else who put a very high number in a similar amount of innings as Goins: Craig Gentry: 29.3 in over 300 innings 3 years ago. Next two seasons? Both over 30.

 

So the question is why can't Goins keep this up? He might not be the top defensive player, but how do we know he's not top 5 or top 10?

[GD]

Because this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

 

Holy s*** Kevin Kouzmanoff. I had completely forgotten about him.

[NorthOf49]

Because this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

Also, none of the guys theblujay listed played 2B, which is relevant. The highest UZR ever at 2B was Utley's 18.3 in 2008. There's simply not enough opportunities available for a second baseman to be viable with no bat.

[theblujay]

Because this:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=24,d

 

That still doesn't mean Goins can't put up 25-30 UZR/150 next season.

[theblujay]

Confine your search to second basemen only. 25-30 UZR/150s do not happen at the keystone position.

 

Well Goins is really a SS playing 2B, so that's why its so high.

[theblujay]

Ok Steamer has him at .1 WAR in 97 games next year. With 5.3 Def. Let's say he puts up a great defensive year, which he is definitely capable of considering he is a SS playing 2B and he was fantastic this year. With 18 UZR/150 thats almost 11 UZR. The scale for 2B seems to be around +2. Thats 13 Def, which is much more than 5.3. I don't know the formula for WAR, but that definitely puts him much higher than .1

[NorthOf49]

Ok Steamer has him at .1 WAR in 97 games next year. With 5.3 Def. Let's say he puts up a great defensive year, which he is definitely capable of considering he is a SS playing 2B and he was fantastic this year. With 18 UZR/150 thats almost 11 UZR. The scale for 2B seems to be around +2. Thats 13 Def, which is much more than 5.3. I don't know the formula for WAR, but that definitely puts him much higher than .1

WAR is basically 1 win = 10 runs (can be demonstrated using pythag). So if you increase the 5.3 to 15.3 then you add a win to his WAR.

[theblujay]

WAR is basically 1 win = 10 runs (can be demonstrated using pythag). So if you increase the 5.3 to 15.3 then you add a win to his WAR.

 

There you go. 1 WAR over 90-100 games.

[theblujay]

Except he hit right at his projections, and was worth -7.3 runs offensively in just 121 PA.

 

Steamer has him at .1 WAR taking into account his bat. BTW just a minute ago it had his steamer projections for next year and now its gone.

[GD]

That still doesn't mean Goins can't put up 25-30 UZR/150 next season.

 

ok lel

 

Well Goins is really a SS playing 2B, so that's why its so high.

 

No, it isn't.

 

Ok Steamer has him at .1 WAR in 97 games next year. With 5.3 Def. Let's say he puts up a great defensive year, which he is definitely capable of considering he is a SS playing 2B and he was fantastic this year. With 18 UZR/150 thats almost 11 UZR. The scale for 2B seems to be around +2. Thats 13 Def, which is much more than 5.3. I don't know the formula for WAR, but that definitely puts him much higher than .1

 

13 def + 17.5 replacement runs + 2 positional = Like 3 and a half wins without the offensive component. But the thing is that he put up such terrible numbers that if you extrapolate them you get -35.7 offensive runs and that's like -3.5 wins. Which means, shocker, replacement level. I have no clue if I did that right but meh

[theblujay]

ok lel

 

 

 

No, it isn't.

 

 

 

13 def + 17.5 replacement runs + 2 positional = Like 3 and a half wins without the offensive component. But the thing is that he put up such terrible numbers that if you extrapolate them you get -35.7 offensive runs and that's like -3.5 wins. Which means, shocker, replacement level. I have no clue if I did that right but meh

 

Except Steamer had him at around -17 offensive runs. I swear I just saw it on fangraphs page for Goins, but now its gone.

[Convo]

Except Steamer had him at around -17 offensive runs. I swear I just saw it on fangraphs page for Goins, but now its gone.

 

From what I saw in 1.5 months this year, his defense would probably make up for his offensive lackings... not saying there isn't a better option though.

[GD]

From what I saw in 1.5 months this year, his defense would probably make up for his offensive lackings... not saying there isn't a better option though.

 

But that's not true though.

[theblujay]

But that's not true though.

 

Yes it is. We just went through this. 13 runs if he continues his great defensive play, and steamer has him at -17 for Offense, with .1 WAR total (and thats only with 5 defensive runs). The boost puts him at 1 WAR in 100 games.

[GD]

Yes it is. We just went through this. 13 runs if he continues his great defensive play, and steamer has him at -17 for Offense, with .1 WAR total (and thats only with 5 defensive runs). The boost puts him at 1 WAR in 100 games.

 

Using Steamer's projections, over the course of a full season of 600 PA, using 17.5 replacement runs and +2 positional adjustment runs, Ryan Goins projects to post .18 or 0.2 fWAR. Fun fact: That's more or less replacement level and absolutely unacceptable to have starting every day.

 

See, you're saying that he needs to continue his defensive play, but it's already been established that his UZR isn't a true talent level (most likely) and I'm far more comfortable using Steamer's very reasonable defensive projections of +5.3 defense.

[theblujay]

See, you're saying that he needs to continue his defensive play, but it's already been established that his UZR isn't a true talent level (most likely) and I'm far more comfortable using Steamer's very reasonable defensive projections of +5.3 defense.

 

I'm didn't calculate it with a UZR/150 of 33. I calculated it with a number of 18. That's much more reasonable

[Boxcar]

You realize 0-1WAR is defined as scrub?

 

Not if his name is Ryan Goins.

[theblujay]

You realize 0-1WAR is defined as scrub?

 

Yeah, but this was over 1 WAR in only 100 games.

[gruber92]

Holy f*** already. If AA upgrades the offense elsewhere and he has no success in finding a quality starting second baseman, then Ryan f***ing Goins is the organization's best option. Unless AA finds a 2.5 + WAR second baseman, its not worth the money. Use it elsewhere.

 

Agreed?

[gruber92]

Second base is the most gaping hole on the roster (even more so than catcher)... why not address it first? Then look elsewhere.

 

The offseason is four months long. It's long enough that a bevy of better options will present themselves. Why accept ineptitude?

 

2B is a bigger hole to fill than the catching spot? WTF? Please don't use the full season's WAR numbers at second base either. That's not indicative of what we got there in the last six weeks of the season.

[GD]

Please don't use the full season's WAR numbers at second base either. That's not indicative of what we got there in the last six weeks of the season.

 

Somewhere, a single tear sheds down 49's face.

[gruber92]

Arencibia is a better player than Ryan Goins. It's true. And while AJ Jimenez isn't a great prospect, he's better than any second baseman in the pipeline.

 

Wut..

[Angrioter]

Second base is the most gaping hole on the roster (even more so than catcher)... why not address it first? Then look elsewhere.

 

The offseason is four months long. It's long enough that a bevy of superior options should present themselves. Why accept ineptitude?

 

It's always important to consider positional value. The players/defensive position are active, right now the most precious assets:

C> SS> 2B

 

Nobody (defensibly) has the ball longer in their domains than these 3 guys, for that reason his defense skills must be important.

[Angrioter]

Arencibia is a better player than Ryan Goins. It's true. And while AJ Jimenez isn't a great prospect, he's better than any second baseman in the pipeline.

 

2B is a bigger hole to fill than the catching spot? WTF? Please don't use the full season's WAR numbers at second base either. That's not indicative of what we got there in the last six weeks of the season.

 

Arencibia "improved" something defensively and................. nobody can be as bad as JPA 2013 version.

 

1A - 2B

A - catcher

1B - Top-starter

B - depth

[Laika]

The fact of the matter is that the Blue Jays absolutely are not, and absolutely will not be, deep enough to afford a Pete Kozma type of experiment.

 

They'll probably do it anyway though because they're dumb like you guys.

 

And it'll probably work out too, because AA is due for another blind squirrel event.

[GD]

There is no reason to be content with a guy you project at like -0.5 to 0.5 WAR.

 

The issue is that they don't project Goins at that.

[Laika]

The issue is that they don't project Goins at that.

 

Then they have.... issues.

[GD]

Then they have.... issues.

 

I'll assume you haven't read the last ~5 pages (and I don't blame you) but they project Goins at roughly 1.5 WAR. Well, theblujay does.

 

Issues is probably right.

[Angrioter]

I'll assume you haven't read the last ~5 pages (and I don't blame you) but they project Goins at roughly 1.5 WAR. Well, theblujay does.

 

Issues is probably right.

 

Goins 1,5 WAR and I a 12-inches dick.