Did I hear Josh Johnson's agent correctly?

[Caper]

Was listening to an interview with Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick?

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Matt-Sosnick-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20130725-Interview.mp3

 

Yeah, he's a little bit full of s***.... but what I got from it was that he is basically saying that if AA offers Johnson a qualifying offer that Johnson will most likely take it? Is that correct?

 

I don't know, might be a smart roll of the dice. He can't be that bad again.... can he?

[IronLadle]

Was listening to an interview with Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick?

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Matt-Sosnick-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20130725-Interview.mp3

 

Yeah, he's a little bit full of s***.... but what I got from it was that he is basically saying that if AA offers Johnson a qualifying offer that Johnson will most likely take it? Is that correct?

 

I don't know, might be a smart roll of the dice. He can't be that bad again.... can he?

 

Can't imagine Johnson getting anything better

[digiblader]

At this point, he might be better taking a QO from the Jays--no team is giving him a multi-year deal with his current numbers or health. Tim Lincecum of the Giants faces the same dilemma..

[dineke]

Why wouldn't he take the 14 mil and try to rebuild his value for next off-season? No-brainer really.

[JaysFan4Ever]

Was listening to an interview with Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick?

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Matt-Sosnick-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20130725-Interview.mp3

 

Yeah, he's a little bit full of s***.... but what I got from it was that he is basically saying that if AA offers Johnson a qualifying offer that Johnson will most likely take it? Is that correct?

 

I don't know, might be a smart roll of the dice. He can't be that bad again.... can he?

 

It seems like his agent is saying with such a poor market this winter and a poor showing by JJ that it might be in his best interest to take an QO and return to get his numbers back up and go next year for a bigger deal. If he's offered it'll cost the signing team a pick so they might not bite unless he's Cy Young from now until the end of the season and even then losing a first rounder will scare off many teams with how he's played this year.

 

It's not a bad move on both parties. If JJ accepts a QO it'll be around what he made this year (anywhere from what he made to about $15 M). It's a bargain price if he can put up the dominate numbers he can and if he sucks out loud it's not the worst waste of money. If he pitches a lot better next year he can cash in whether it be in Toronto or another team.

 

It might be the best offer he'll get unless a team gets desperate but with compensation attached and his lackluster performance this year it's unlikely he'll get anything better.

[SAAviour]

I'd rather take my chances on Hutchison then give JJ 15 mil. Cut the losses and let him walk...back to the NL, he might be decent there.

[IronLadle]

I'd rather take my chances on Hutchison then give JJ 15 mil. Cut the losses and let him walk...back to the NL, he might be decent there.

 

It's stupid to let him leave for nothing, this is the only year he's ever sucked.

[Orgfiller]

I'd rather take my chances on Hutchison then give JJ 15 mil. Cut the losses and let him walk...back to the NL, he might be decent there.

 

He hasn't been as bad as his ERA suggests, if he accepts a QO there would be no problem with that. Yes he's injury prone, but he has good stuff and could give pretty decent value next year. I think currently there is a spot for Hutch, assuming JJ stays, we probably keep due to age/salaries Dickey and Buerhle, so we have those three plus probably Morrow if he has no setbacks. Rogers back to the pen or trade him if some team wants him as their 5th starter, I don't think he'll have trouble gaining a spot unless something goes wrong from here onto next ST.

[G-Snarls]

I'm not a big fan of JJ, but why not take both him and Hutch? It's not really an either-or. If there's anything we've learned this year, it's that you can never have enough guys.

 

And Hutch has options

[AdamGreenwood]

So, basically we're not getting a free draft pick for Johnson (even though Miami probably included that as part of the deal).

So, the question is: do we want to pay $14 million for another year of Josh Johnson?

 

According to the Fangraphs sheep, he's already been worth $7.2 million, and likely going to produce over $10 million worth of pitching by the end of the year.

So, assuming he can produce 1.5 WAR next year, he'll be worth it. (if you believe in the 9 million dollar WAR).

 

At this point JJ has to be thinking that he can have a great year next year, and then cash in.

Maybe we should gamble on him bouncing back and offer him a 4 year deala for the minimum amount that gives us a draft pick if he declines.

 

He might actually be more likely to decline, (giving us a pick).

[G-Snarls]

No question AA makes him a qualitying offer. I can live with the result either way. Though have to say I'm intrigued to see how well he could perform next year for us.

[P2F]

I still prefer BTS' proposal of tabling Johnson a 3-year offer worth $45-50 MM. Maybe he accepts.

 

His xFIP and SIERA are right on par with his career average, but he's been a victim of bad luck (.338 BABIP).

 

Great buy-low opportunity here.

[Orgfiller]

So, basically we're not getting a free draft pick for Johnson (even though Miami probably included that as part of the deal).

So, the question is: do we want to pay $14 million for another year of Josh Johnson?

 

According to the Fangraphs sheep, he's already been worth $7.2 million, and likely going to produce over $10 million worth of pitching by the end of the year.

So, assuming he can produce 1.5 WAR next year, he'll be worth it. (if you believe in the 9 million dollar WAR).

 

At this point JJ has to be thinking that he can have a great year next year, and then cash in.

Maybe we should gamble on him bouncing back and offer him a 4 year deala for the minimum amount that gives us a draft pick if he declines.

 

He might actually be more likely to decline, (giving us a pick).

 

With a pitcher with his injury history a four year deal would likely not be very smart to offer him, it's also the AL East and while I like JJ a bit more than some he's probably not going back to his Cy Young contending years.

 

Edit: He's also likely not accepting a long deal because he needs to prove he's worth more, which is why he might accept the QO for one year.

[G-Snarls]

I'd do a cheaper extension or if he doesn't want to then a QO is fine.

 

Yeah you could consider 2-3 years at 12ish Million per. But he'd probably prefer the 1 year QO.

[8D]

I'd take JJ at $14MM next season. JJ is not this bad and he still has great potential (5-6WAR). I think he can

easily exceed $14MM in worth next season. And I'd say that's the best option for the Jays as well.

I actually kind of prefer JJ @ $14MM over the draft pick.

[G-Snarls]

I'd take JJ at $14MM next season. JJ is not this bad and he still has great potential (5-6WAR). I think he can

easily exceed $14MM in worth next season. And I'd say that's the best option for the Jays as well.

I actually kind of prefer JJ @ $14MM over the draft pick.

 

Well the nice thing if he stays for another year you still might get to cash him for a draft pick after the 2014 season.

[SAAviour]

I see what you are all saying, I just don't think he'll perform next year. I wouldn't risk 15 mil on it unless Rogers has really opened up the vault for the team.

[G-Snarls]

I see what you are all saying, I just don't think he'll perform next year. I wouldn't risk 15 mil on it unless Rogers has really opened up the vault for the team.

 

Yeah it's a small risk to extend the QO. But if he's not traded before the season ends it I think it would be silly not to make the offer. No sense letting him walk for nothing. I'd prefer to "risk" getting JJ at 14M or getting an extra 1st round pick over letting him walk for nothing.

[G-Snarls]

There's essentially no risk in signing him. He is a potential ace with a 3.60 xFIP.

 

It's weird how it feels like he's been worse than that

[8D]

Well the nice thing if he stays for another year you still might get to cash him for a draft pick after the 2014 season.

 

Another positive.

[Arkadium]

I don't really get why a team wouldn't want to pick up JJ? He's a stud having a poor but mostly unlucky 1/3 of a season. Yet people seem to think a team would pick up Buehrle's massive contract when he's been only mildly better? Confusing.

[Caper]

IMO there's a decent chance that AA is too afraid of that ERA to offer JJ a QO, and we lose him for nothing.

 

There is no chance of that.

[leaffie]

There's essentially no risk in signing him. He is a potential ace with a 3.60 xFIP.

 

Has anyone actually watched this guy pitch this year. He is afraid to throw anything near the plate. No risk? How about $15 million risk. Aren't all his numbers trending down. I think he has been injured this year and hiding it, trying to protect a future contract.

 

I would make him a minimal offer, and if he doesn't want it, he walks. How about for once, let's not HOPE, that our pitchers can be healthy. If the Jays have 15 million to spend on a pitcher, let's hope they can find a healthy one.

[Nox]

We signed Cordero because of his ERA and savez so why would we not make another decision based of flawed information?

[jaysblue]

Was listening to an interview with Johnson's agent, Matt Sosnick?

 

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-3/Matt-Sosnick-with-Jeff-Blair-jb-20130725-Interview.mp3

 

Yeah, he's a little bit full of s***.... but what I got from it was that he is basically saying that if AA offers Johnson a qualifying offer that Johnson will most likely take it? Is that correct?

 

I don't know, might be a smart roll of the dice. He can't be that bad again.... can he?

 

I don't mind having JJ back since we all know he is not this terrible. If he puts up big numbers, the QO could be a bargain and at least solidify the Jays staff in 2014.

[jaysblue]

Has anyone actually watched this guy pitch this year. He is afraid to throw anything near the plate. No risk? How about $15 million risk. Aren't all his numbers trending down. I think he has been injured this year and hiding it, trying to protect a future contract.

 

I would make him a minimal offer, and if he doesn't want it, he walks. How about for once, let's not HOPE, that our pitchers can be healthy. If the Jays have 15 million to spend on a pitcher, let's hope they can find a healthy one.

 

Thing is, a pitcher like Garza likely will demand a 5 + year deal worth $70-$80 million or more. Johnson when healthy is a better pitcher than Garza and getting JJ back on a one-year deal worth $13-$15 million isn't the worst. I'd rather have JJ for one year rather than sign Garza to a massive contract.

[jaysblue]

At this point, he might be better taking a QO from the Jays--no team is giving him a multi-year deal with his current numbers or health. Tim Lincecum of the Giants faces the same dilemma..

 

I can see a team giving Lincecum a 2 or 3 year deal if he finishes the season strong. He was pitching pretty well until that blow up against Cincy. His name alone and pedigree (2 Cy Youngs) should guarantee him a multi-year deal if he finishes with an ERA in the low 4's and a K % of 9.0/IP

[jaysblue]

I still prefer BTS' proposal of tabling Johnson a 3-year offer worth $45-50 MM. Maybe he accepts.

 

His xFIP and SIERA are right on par with his career average, but he's been a victim of bad luck (.338 BABIP).

 

Great buy-low opportunity here.

 

Doubt the Jays offer that after the season JJ had and I doubt JJ would take that since he's still young and he's one big season away from landing a huge contract. It would be a good buy low opp, since we know JJ ain't this bad, though it unlikely happen between both parties.

[TheHurl]

Aren't all his numbers trending down. .

 

velocity is up, K-Rate is up, BB Rate is down. HR rates are way up which can be explained partially by the Rogers Centre (where he's given up 8 of his 11). His road numbers are ugly 7.66 ERA (despite better K-Rates on the road and lower BB rates), he's had a 43% LOB rate on the road...no one can sustain that bad of a rate. Why are righties killing him to a rate of a .405 wOBA, when he's handled them throughout his career. Jays figure that out and they should get much more respectable numbers from him.

[leaffie]

When Healthy.

 

Posters use these two words all the time. I want this club to sign a pitcher that has no health problems, that has no provisos of "when healthy".