Y. Escobar, the best

[DuckDuckGose]

Zips has Reyes about half a win better over a full season. Steamer has them equivalent. Chone likes Escobar better.

 

They're not in different tiers talent wise at all.

 

Those projections are based on playing time though Nox. I added this qualifing statement for that reason;

 

Getting in to contract value/health definitely muddies the water but, one player is clearly superior when on the field.

 

I agree that when you take in to account playing time the gap is narrowed quite a bit and when you consider contracts Yunel probably comes out on top as the preferred asset. In the hypothetical scenario in which you are in the WC one game playoff, both are healthy, you can pick one to play for you and the other plays against you, who do you pick? IMO it's Reyes 100 times out of 100.

[Nox]

Those projections are based on playing time though Nox. I added this qualifing statement for that reason;

 

Of course playing time is projected. Why would it not be?

 

Zips projects Escobar to play 52 games ROS, Reyes 42. Steamer has it at Escobar: 50, 46. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me at all.

 

Even if you look at it on a per game basis, they're not projected to provide dissimilar value.

[DuckDuckGose]

Of course playing time is projected. Why would it not be?

 

Zips projects Escobar to play 52 games ROS, Reyes 42. Steamer has it at Escobar: 50, 46. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me at all.

 

Even if you look at it on a per game basis, they're not projected to provide dissimilar value.

 

The whole point was that Reyes is in another talent class than Escobar. I completely agree when you look at projections (especially health projections) and contract status Yunel comes out on top for very concrete and quantifiable reasons.

 

Pure talent though, it's Reyes all day, every day, and twice on Tuesdays.

[Nox]

 

Pure talent though, it's Reyes all day, every day, and twice on Tuesdays.

 

That's just not true though. Projection systems are basically a true talent estimator. Steamer has Escobar's true talent at 1.3 WAR/50 games compared to Reyes' 1.3 WAR/46 games. That's a very similar estimation of their respective talent levels.

 

Obviously Reyes is a superior offensive player. That's not debatable. But just as obvious is Escobar's advantage in the field. He's a sublime defender at SS while Reyes' ability to convert outs has shown to be lacking throughout his career.

 

If I had to choose one of these guys for one game, I'd take Reyes. But it's not as clear cut as you're making it out to be.

[fatcowxlive]

The whole point was that Reyes is in another talent class than Escobar. I completely agree when you look at projections (especially health projections) and contract status Yunel comes out on top for very concrete and quantifiable reasons.

 

Pure talent though, it's Reyes all day, every day, and twice on Tuesdays.

 

What health projections Dr. DuckDuckGose?

[DuckDuckGose]

That's just not true though. Projection systems are basically a true talent estimator. Steamer has Escobar's true talent at 1.3 WAR/50 games compared to Reyes' 1.3 WAR/46 games. That's a very similar estimation of their respective talent levels.

 

Obviously Reyes is a superior offensive player. That's not debatable. But just as obvious is Escobar's advantage in the field. He's a sublime defender at SS while Reyes' ability to convert outs has shown to be lacking throughout his career.

 

If I had to choose one of these guys for one game, I'd take Reyes. But it's not as clear cut as you're making it out to be.

 

Where do you get the projections on a per game basis? I'm really only familiar with PECOTA and ZIPS and was taught not to use them that way...

 

On defence we're talking a ~1 win gap. I think Reyes provides more than that with his speed, base-running and offence but, I'm too lazy at the moment to actually analyze the stats.

[DuckDuckGose]

What health projections Dr. DuckDuckGose?

 

Projection systems also project the number of PA's expected out of a player. So those health projections.

[fatcowxlive]

Projection systems also project the number of PA's expected out of a player. So those health projections.

 

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

Makes sense

[Nox]

Where do you get the projections on a per game basis? I'm really only familiar with PECOTA and ZIPS and was taught not to use them that way...

 

On defence we're talking a ~1 win gap. I think Reyes provides more than that with his speed, base-running and offence but, I'm too lazy at the moment to actually analyze the stats.

 

There are no game by game projections published. I just meant that if you disregard projected playing time (for some reason), even their performance per game is expected to be around the same.

 

I'd put the defensive gap closer to 1.5 wins, but that's splitting hairs at this point.

[DuckDuckGose]

There are no game by game projections published. I just meant that if you disregard projected playing time (for some reason), even their performance per game is expected to be around the same.

 

I'd put the defensive gap closer to 1.5 wins, but that's splitting hairs at this point.

 

Ah gotcha. Pretty interesting stuff. for my reference did you use the preseason projections or the updated ZIPs/Steamer?

[DuckDuckGose]

The question of just how bad a defender Reyes is is an interesting question. IIRC UZR has him at around -5 and DRS -15 the last two years. Hopefully we're not looking at a Jeter situation as he enters his mid-30s.

 

I was shocked to see how terribly DRS rated Reyes' D. One of those ones where the stats don't match your eyes.

[DuckDuckGose]

I thought the opposite actually. He's pretty sure-handed on balls hit to him, but I'm not impressed by his range or throws when he can't plant his feet.

 

Good arm and glove, I thought his range was around average but, I'm clearly mistaken.

[Jimcanuck]

To my eye, Reyes range is slightly below average, arm is average. He also does not extend for the ball, self preservation most likely. Seems much more suited for 2B

 

Damn.... Bautista for Profar is possible?? Do it AA! Profar may yet be the generational talent he was hyped to be.

 

Lawrie, Profar, Reyes, EE is a dynamite infield.

[Chappy]

If AA somehow pulled off a Buatista/Profar type of deal that would be pretty huge for this team moving forward. Gets us younger and cheaper and sets up the infield D quite nicely with Reyes moving over to 2B. Still keeps this team competitive in the short-term with more flexibility to add in the winter for another attempt at a run.

[DuckDuckGose]

If AA somehow pulled off a Buatista/Profar type of deal that would be pretty huge for this team moving forward. Gets us younger and cheaper and sets up the infield D quite nicely with Reyes moving over to 2B. Still keeps this team competitive in the short-term with more flexibility to add in the winter for another attempt at a run.

 

Lock up McCann, trade for Peavy call it an off-season. Gose/Pillar/Davis/Melky/Rasmus fight for the final OF spots.

[DuckDuckGose]

Can Profar defend short? Yoy make that deal either way, but it would be best that he can play short.

 

Best position is SS

[Chappy]

Can Profar defend short? Yoy make that deal either way, but it would be best that he can play short.

 

From what I understand yes, but I would prefer to see him play a few games a short to see for myself. If not, he would still be a cheap young controllable option for the infield with high upside. It's a no brainer if he is available in a Bautista deal.

[Jimcanuck]

Lock up McCann, trade for Peavy call it an off-season. Gose/Pillar/Davis/Melky/Rasmus fight for the final OF spots.

 

Make the team even older? Nah

 

And why would Rasmus be fighting for an OF spot?

[DuckDuckGose]

Make the team even older? Nah

 

And why would Rasmus be fighting for an OF spot?

 

McCann is 29, not exactly old. Peavy is on a 1 year deal (with an option that only vests if he plays well). Not exactly committing yourself to a bunch of grey hairs. I understand why you wouldn't want the Jays taking a bunch of long term deals though.

 

Rasmus really wouldn't be fighting for a spot, Melky probably either. It was more just to throw out the names of theoretical fielders to see them on paper. Sometimes I make a fantasy trade and then go wait a minute Gose, Melky, Rasmus would be a terrible OF (which it would haha).

[AuntieJPA]

From what I understand yes, but I would prefer to see him play a few games a short to see for myself. If not, he would still be a cheap young controllable option for the infield with high upside. It's a no brainer if he is available in a Bautista deal.

 

Listening to round table and someone mentions having good infield D and not much of an average would be nice. Really wish the Miami deal could have been done without Hech. He, Lawrie, and Reyes on 2nd would be great. Yes, I know Hech isn't the best hitter but. At least he is 12th or so in NL for ss hitting.

[Nox]

Ah gotcha. Pretty interesting stuff. for my reference did you use the preseason projections or the updated ZIPs/Steamer?

 

Updated ZIPS/Steamer ROS projections that fangraphs uses.

[Nox]

The question of just how bad a defender Reyes is is an interesting question. IIRC UZR has him at around -5 and DRS -15 the last two years. Hopefully we're not looking at a Jeter situation as he enters his mid-30s.

 

It's also worth noting that play by play based defensive metrics (which are more accurate when we're talking samples approaching a career length) have also always hated Reyes' work at SS. BPro's FRAA is one of these systems.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31511

[Arkadium]

You understand people don't value your opinions, right? You understand that you make polls because you are incapable of meaningful, value-added, insightful commentary. Conversing with you is pandering to the lowest common denominator, a plea to forgoing rational thought, a window in to the musings of a fool.

 

Did I make you that mad? I honestly thought you were trolling. Relax man, don't try so f***ing hard.