Hayhurst: Blue Jays not in strong trade position (good read)

[G-Snarls]

You could say that about our entire Opening Day starting rotation. Dickey and Beurhle have under performed and Johnson, Morrow, and Happ have been injured. I'm not expecting every single guy to bounce back but 2 or 3 of them should expect some progression to the mean.

 

And as you said, Lawrie and Cabrera should expect improvement as well. Reyes is back and that adds a couple of wins over the junk we were trotting out there at SS too.

 

Add a 2B or 3B (depending on what you do with Lawrie), a C, and another starting pitcher and I think the team will be set to contend next year. Hutchinson, Drabek, Stroman, Nolin, and maybe even Romero will lead a group that is much more suited to provide rotation depth next year too which has been a big problem this year.

 

Right

 

2-3 of the guys on the DL/rehab will be back for the rotation next year. If we keep or replace JJ I think we have enough starting pitching in 2014

 

Decisions on Lawrie/Melky/Lind depend on how they perform second half, and who's available in the off season.

[G-Snarls]

I agree with this. It's looking like the SP depth in the minors should be stronger next season, the pen is stacked and we don't even have room for all our options and we have a strong enough offense.

 

This team just needs to fix the defensive deficiencies at 2B and C and add a legitimate #3 or better to the rotation. If AA can get it into his head that JPA sucks, he could plug C with a defensive minded player at a low cost. Then look to see what can be done at 2B. This team likely contends next season just by shoring up the D. Adding to the rotation just makes them that much better.

 

Right. Catcher should be the EASIEST thing to fix this off season IF (huge if, literally and figuratively) the FO finally admit that JPA isn't good enough.

[Chappy]

We aren't in as dire of a situation as everyone thinks. With the right tweaks we will contend.

 

Our rotation depth for 2014 assuming JJ walks would be: Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Happ, Rogers, Romero, Stroman, Nolin, Hutch and Drabek.

 

I don't see this as bad as so many are saying. If AA can shore up the D at 2B or 3B depending on where Lawrie plays and get rid of JPA and bring in a defensive minded catcher then this team will contend. Upgrading the rotation will just further that cause, but I am not even sure its as dire as its being made out to be.

[G-Snarls]

I think you're being a bit too optimistic.

 

Buehrle hasn't really under performed. He put up 1.9 WAR last year and is on pace for like 1.7 this year. A bit poor ERA luck, but this is Buehrle. I wouldn't expect an improvement at 35. Same with Dickey. He'll be 39 next year. Expecting an improvement is a bit much at that age IMO.

.

 

Agree on Buerhle. He is what he is, an inning-eating ox who puts up acceptable but unspectacular numbers year after year. That's fine if we make sure we have 2-3 guys better than him in the rotation.

[Chappy]

One starter replaces JJ likely for no net gain, and one FA catcher adds 2-3 wins. So we've increased payroll to ~160 million to add 2-3 wins to a likely sub-0.500 team. And that's not considering the fact the team is old as s*** and will mostly be declining, rather than improving over the next couple years.

 

I don't think the group of morons who made this mess are in any way capable of fixing it.

 

Well to be fair JJ has done nothing for this team more than halfway into the season. Unless he pitches like an Ace the rest of the way its not going to be that tough to improve on him. In terms of ceiling, sure he will be tough to replace, but he is far from that ceiling right now.

[Chappy]

Right. Catcher should be the EASIEST thing to fix this off season IF (huge if, literally and figuratively) the FO finally admit that JPA isn't good enough.

 

That is what worries me, I don't think they will actually realize this but I really hope I am wrong.

[sachmo55]

I think you're being a bit too optimistic.

 

Buehrle hasn't really under performed. He put up 1.9 WAR last year and is on pace for like 1.7 this year. A bit poor ERA luck, but this is Buehrle. I wouldn't expect an improvement at 35. Same with Dickey. He'll be 39 next year. Expecting an improvement is a bit much at that age IMO.

 

I can buy projecting Melky at like 1.5 WAR, and I can buy an improvement in Lawrie, but I hate the idea that everyone who was hurt/disappointing this year will naturally be better next year. 2014 will have its own set of injuries and poor performances, and the last two years are evidence that this team is not young, deep, or well-managed enough to weather them.

 

In my mind, the Jays playoff hopes ride largely on 2 players: Dickey and Lawrie

 

If Dickey proves that he struggles are because of injuries, and he returns to being the low strikeout/walk guy with a lot of GB's he was in 2010/2011 that always beat his FIP (He's still posting low babip's this year)

AND

Lawrie becomes a slightly better version of his 2012 self (2.5 WAR in 125 games)

 

Then were talking about a big WAR swing from this season (3ish WAR from Dickey (I prefer bWAR for dickey) and 5WAR from Lawrie vs our current 3B/2B production... because our current production is NEGATIVE WAR)

Edited July 18, 2013 by sachmo55

[Chappy]

I get the feeling that we'll look up at the end of the season and notice JJ at 2-3 WAR. That's not insignificant to replace.

 

Yup it won't be, but he would have to pitch like an ace the rest of the way for that to happen. He is still negative WAR right now.

[DuckDuckGose]

Replace JPA via FA

 

Remove JPA and Bonifacio from the roster

 

Acquire one more legit SP when JJ walks

 

Teach Lawrie how to hit again

 

That's all we absolutely have to do for next year.

 

Upgrades at 2B/DH optional

 

1. Sign Ruiz or McCann our trade for Lucroy

2. Both could only fetch C prospects but ya move them out

3. Sign Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez now

4. Think he'll be just fine going forward. He just hate losing to much to not refind his stroke.

5. Need to add a starting 2B (or 3B with Lawrie up the middle), no excuse to go on to next season with that gaping hole.

[sachmo55]

Yup it won't be, but he would have to pitch like an ace the rest of the way for that to happen. He is still negative WAR right now.

 

JJ has a 0.9 WAR

He's got a 4.08 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP

[G-Snarls]

Yup it won't be, but he would have to pitch like an ace the rest of the way for that to happen. He is still negative WAR right now.

 

I think Drew Hutchison has a very good chance of putting up better WAR in 2014 than JJ will this year

[Arkadium]

JJ has a 0.9 WAR

He's got a 4.08 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP

 

JJ has been pretty unlucky this season, most of his peripherals are good.

[sachmo55]

Upgrade C. 2-3 W

Full season of Reyes 2-3 W

Actual 5th starter (Rogers Happ Stroman Hutch) 1-2 W

JJ replacement performing better than him this year 2 W

Morrow healthy 1 W

Lawrie healthy (career avg numbers) 2-3 W

No more Boni 1-2 (2 if replacement is better than replacement) W

 

11-16 win increase if all happen, and all need to happen to make playoffs.

 

I'd say the WAR swing of Lawrie playing at his career averages is more than 2-3. Given that our current 3B WAR is -1.0 and -1.8 for 2B, a 3 WAR season (which is what 2012 Lawrie effectively did) is closer to a 5 WAR Swing

[G-Snarls]

Upgrade C. 2-3 W

Full season of Reyes 2-3 W

Actual 5th starter (Rogers Happ Stroman Hutch) 1-2 W

JJ replacement performing better than him this year 2 W

Morrow healthy 1 W

Lawrie healthy (career avg numbers) 2-3 W

No more Boni 1-2 (2 if replacement is better than replacement) W

 

11-16 win increase if all happen, and all need to happen to make playoffs.

 

Yep. Plus if we actually do move Lawrie to 2B and get a decent hitting 3B, that helps our bench by having Izturis there

[G-Snarls]

I'd say the WAR swing of Lawrie playing at his career averages is more than 2-3. Given that our current 3B WAR is -1.0 and -1.8 for 2B, a 3 WAR season (which is what 2012 Lawrie effectively did) is closer to a 5 WAR Swing

 

Presuming you fill whichever position Lawrie doesn't play with at least a league average player.

 

If Lawrie stays at 3B and you played Boni at 2B all year next year (theoretical nightmare scenario for illustrative purposes only, please do not panic) it doesn't help.

[Chappy]

He's actually at 0.9. His ERA > his FIP.

 

Your right, I misread.

[G-Snarls]

And more people need Oliver and Loup:

 

@Buster_ESPN: The Indians are looking for a left-handed reliever.

 

@scottcoleman55: Along with every other team within 10 games of .500 RT @Buster_ESPN: The Indians are looking for a left-handed reliever.

[flafson]

JJ has been pretty unlucky this season, most of his peripherals are good.

 

He's a big guy who's afraid to attack hitters, pretty sure that's his problem.

[Angrioter]

And more people need Oliver and Loup:

 

@Buster_ESPN: The Indians are looking for a left-handed reliever.

 

@scottcoleman55: Along with every other team within 10 games of .500 RT @Buster_ESPN: The Indians are looking for a left-handed reliever.

 

Oliver and Boni for Dorssys Paulino +