The Turnaround and Reyes

[GD]

Honestly I think that streaks have little to do with luck.

 

I disagree.

[KSaw]

Series by series isn't good enough anymore. Two weeks ago maybe, but now there has to be some sweeps in the mix. Realistically this team needs a 7-10 game win streak this month before anyone should take them seriously.

 

Not being mathematically out of it doesn't mean this team has a chance. They haven't earned that type of optimism.

 

You're right. They haven't really proven anything yet. I'm basing my opinion on a few positive factors and my years of seeing so many night and day turn arounds by so many teams that come off of just a few good games and a few players starting to click at the same time. Hope I'm right. It'll all be more fun.

 

If they do run off 21-13 to the break as I suggest, take them seriously. Even 20-14 or 19-15 would keep them right in it. Lets just see how the next few weeks go I guess.

[KSaw]

I disagree.

 

I just don't see it. A little luck, sure. Maybe 1-2 games with a bad hop but being hot really means more. Ask players on a team about to play an opponent on a 7-game win streak how they feel going in. Generally they are playing not to lose, instead of to win.

[BlueJayWay]

You know what's an interesting experiment? Flip a coin a thousand times. Record the results and pretend the heads are wins and the tails are losses. Marvel at all the "winning" and "losing" streaks, some of which grow to be quite long.

[Jimcanuck]

The '89 Jays were 42-45 at the break-- if anyone cares.

 

*12-24 start

*Same record today

*42-45 at break

*89-73 finish

 

Ah, 1989..... I ran into Cito at Lionhead Golf and Country the other week and asked him if he will be managing again. He gave a little smile and said "We will see"

[GD]

Wang vs. Quintana

 

I dunno if you can really say we *should* win this game.

[KSaw]

You know what's an interesting experiment? Flip a coin a thousand times. Record the results and pretend the heads are wins and the tails are losses. Marvel at all the "winning" and "losing" streaks, some of which grow to be quite long.

 

Completely random but I saw 2 guys do this and bet on each flip. There was at least 700 flips. Longest streak was 18. The funny thing is it's not 50/50 because the coin can and will eventually land straight up and balanced upward on neither heads or tails. Also, some coins are weighted differently on each side. A US quarter will land on heads more often than tails by about 0.7% apparently.

[KSaw]

Jays should win their next three games:

 

JJ vs. Grimm

Dickey vs. Axelrod

Wang vs. Quintana

 

If JJ, Dickey and Buehrle can pitch like they have been recently, maybe we can get to .500 by the time Reyes is back.

 

Well Reyes may be back in 3 weeks so...

[GD]

White Sox offense is terrible and Wang will have a quick hook. I think it's a game we should grind out. Not a total mismatch like the other two though.

 

Wang is a groundballer with a s***** defense behind him.

[sachmo55]

One thing that catches my eye is this:

 

2010/11 = +2.1 runs/100 fastballs

2012/13 = +1.37 runs/100 fastballs

 

Has his bat speed dropped?

 

Without getting too much into narratives

 

From what im seeing, his 2011 & 2013 numbers on fastballs are very similar.

 

2012 was worse, but I think that's because he got off to a poor start and was on the upswing before getting hurt (so it doesnt constitute a full sample).

 

2010 was in it's own league, but that might have something to do with the league making adjustments to him

[KSaw]

Wang is a groundballer with a s***** defense behind him.

 

As long as Bonifacio is sitting, the infield defense is fine. And if LaRoche is at 3rd and Kawasaki is at short it is pretty good.

[Caper]

I don't give a f*** if we are due for a streak... if it's probable or not..... if there is luck involved or not..... I just want one. A good long stretch.... 20-5 over the next 25 or something.

[SAAviour]

If we're close to back in it, say .500, and buehrle keeps pitching like he is, do you trade for a nothing prospect to dump the salary?

 

If I were gm, I would.

[SAAviour]

Also, getting back into the race is also about jumping over teams. We jumped a couple and now are 1.5 games back of jumping the twins and royals. That should be the next goal.

[Chappy]

I watch the games now just because I love baseball not because I expect the Jays to do anything this season anymore. That being said, if they get a little run going this month it could get interesting. Now 7 games under .500, they need to be .500 or better by the end of this month and they will be back in the mix. Dickey, JJ and Buehrle are starting to make this rotation look better, but we need to get lucky with Wang or simply have some huge offensive games when he is pitching to have a chance at any type of run.

 

Sweep Texas, win the next couple after that and they will have my attention.

[Anemic0ffense]

.500 at the AS break would be golden... I won't hold my breath, but it's possible... We'll see I guess

[ElNik2013]

This team can't get over the 7 games under .500 hurdle, let alone get back to .500 and until they do, I won't get excited.

 

The problem is and has been the starting rotation. Now, Buehrle has put together a good stretch of starts. Dickey had his best start, but it was against a NL opponent. Johnson had a good start on his return, but again, against SF and I'd need to see 3 good starts in a row to proclaim him healthy and back to what we thought he would be.

 

After those 3, even if they continue to pitch well, it's a crapshoot. Morrow isn't even back throwing and I suspect he'll be out for a loooong time, his forearm soreness might be a precursor to more serious problems, I hope this is not the case.

 

So basically, I'm not confident that this team has turned any corner and I will continue with my reverse jinx...season's over bros!

[Caper]

This isn't an elite team that's underachieving: they just aren't very good. Their rotation depth sucks, they get replacement-level production from C and 2B, Lawrie is out long-term, and it remains to be seen whether LF and CF are even league-average this year.

 

You posted on the old board that this was a awesome team.

[Metallijay]

like the optimism OP, nothing wrong with that, but one bad april really cost this tam a realistic chance. They also lost 4-5 games they really gave away and should have won. The pitching is simply not good enough to be a serous contender and turn it around in my opinion. We also have total incompetence at second base, catcher, and lac of depth.

[G-Snarls]

like the optimism OP, nothing wrong with that, but one bad april really cost this tam a realistic chance. They also lost 4-5 games they really gave away and should have won. The pitching is simply not good enough to be a serous contender and turn it around in my opinion. We also have total incompetence at second base, catcher, and lac of depth.

 

Yep. If they'd have had their growing pains but managed to play .500 ball in April we'd have a real shot.

[Metallijay]

Yep. If they'd have had their growing pains but managed to play .500 ball in April we'd have a real shot.

 

YEs the offense should be good enough to carry to team through a couple rough patches really, but in April everyone was behind the 8 ball. They are better then their record, but they still play poor defense, pitching is inconsistent, and struggle with RISP at times, and have poor fundamentals.

 

What you need to understand as well is we have 4 other teams in the division all with above .500 records to pass. Unlikely now.

[ElNik2013]

like the optimism OP, nothing wrong with that, but one bad april really cost this tam a realistic chance. They also lost 4-5 games they really gave away and should have won. The pitching is simply not good enough to be a serous contender and turn it around in my opinion. We also have total incompetence at second base, catcher, and lac of depth.

 

 

No doubt. I really think the team trusted the vetrinness of the players to get themselves ready and didn't push them much in ST and they gave them too little playing time against ML'ers especially. They seemed to run out a lot of the AAAA players all spring. Maybe I'm wrong, like usual, but I really don't think this team was ready to start the year, it was obvious to me during the opening series against the Indians.

[Metallijay]

No doubt. I really think the team trusted the vetrinness of the players to get themselves ready and didn't push them much in ST and they gave them too little playing time against ML'ers especially. They seemed to run out a lot of the AAAA players all spring. Maybe I'm wrong, like usual, but I really don't think this team was ready to start the year, it was obvious to me during the opening series against the Indians.

 

Totally agree, I suspected that as well, everyone timing was off in april, not a coincedence imo.

[G-Snarls]

YEs the offense should be good enough to carry to team through a couple rough patches really, but in April everyone was behind the 8 ball. They are better then their record, but they still play poor defense, pitching is inconsistent, and struggle with RISP at times, and have poor .

 

It was crazy. At the end of April, we had ONE player (Rajai Davis) hitting above the AL mean batting average of .255

 

It was absolutely unbelievable

[DuckDuckGose]

It was crazy. At the end of April, we had ONE player (Rajai Davis) hitting above the AL mean batting average of .255

 

It was absolutely unbelievable

 

Only because Reyes blew his ankle

[Metallijay]

It was crazy. At the end of April, we had ONE player (Rajai Davis) hitting above the AL mean batting average of .255

 

It was absolutely unbelievable

 

Something not right with that picture. Sounds like they simply were not ready.

[ElNik2013]

Yep. If they'd have had their growing pains but managed to play .500 ball in April we'd have a real shot.

 

 

Even if they had gone just a few games under .500 in April, they'd have a shot, but to fall 11 games under was the killer. The obvious thing is, they'll need a 7-10 gamer and the other 4 teams in the division to stay aorund 10 games over to keep any glimmer of hope alive.

 

The thing is, even though I have thought the season's been over for 3 weeks, I'm not sure it'll take more than 90 wins to win the East.

 

Anyway, as I said, season's over in my mind, they can't even get past the 7 games under .500 hurdle, every time they get to this point, they stink it up.

[G-Snarls]

Only because Reyes blew his ankle

 

True. He was just on fire. .465 OBP IIRC...

 

We could use THAT back at he top of the lineup.

[DuckDuckGose]

True. He was just on fire. .465 OBP IIRC...

 

We could use THAT back at he top of the lineup.

 

Only a couple more weeks now, well fingers crossed at least...

[DuckDuckGose]

Even if they had gone just a few games under .500 in April, they'd have a shot, but to fall 11 games under was the killer. The obvious thing is, they'll need a 7-10 gamer and the other 4 teams in the division to stay aorund 10 games over to keep any glimmer of hope alive.

 

The thing is, even though I have thought the season's been over for 3 weeks, I'm not sure it'll take more than 90 wins to win the East.

 

Anyway, as I said, season's over in my mind, they can't even get past the 7 games under .500 hurdle, every time they get to this point, they stink it up.

 

Jays need to go 65W and 36L the rest of the way to get to 93 wins, or a .643 win %. It's not impossible but, it's going to take a couple long streaks and the entire team performing better than it has.