Selling sooner than later

[Caper]

Won't bother, you got your ass kicked enough last night on the playoff chance debate.

 

Yes grammer correction... And a question about how long I expect to live.... That apparently went no where.... Did I ever.

[Dick_Pole]

If were planning on selling, then start with the big names, Oliver, Davis and Izturis will bring little returns

 

Who knows...if they sell off all the garbage like they did in 1998 maybe they'll go on a huge winning streak and end the season pretty well. With that 2nd WC there's always a chance. Addition by subtraction. Of course the team doesn't have the young guys to take over for the dead wood that gets traded.

[Dick_Pole]

Won't bother, you got your ass kicked enough last night on the playoff chance debate.

 

For the record, I never needed RBIs explained to me (meh I should have taken perspective), but I didn't realize that ERA and WHIP were flawed until a long while ago.

 

I haven't posted on this board too much, but you seem to hijack every thread that I have an interest in with your nonsense. There is something wrong with you. Picking fights with several different people is all you seem to do. If your other 2300+ posts in three weeks are anything like the ones in this thread you need mental help. Seriously. That's not even a jab meant to start an e-war that's a serious piece of advice.

 

You called RBI a "flawed, situational statistic". It is situational but it's by no means "flawed". It's a situational stat and it has value for what it is meant to describe. I think that's the consensus among baseball people for the longest period of time or else Joe Carter would be in the HOF for having 300 more RBI than Rickey Henderson. It's not just the sabermetrics followers who discovered this idea in the past decade or so that RBI are a situational stat...it's pretty common sense.

[GD]

You called RBI a "flawed, situational statistic". It is situational but it's by no means "flawed". It's a situational stat and it has value for what it is meant to describe. I think that's the consensus among baseball people for the longest period of time or else Joe Carter would be in the HOF for having 300 more RBI than Rickey Henderson. It's not just the sabermetrics followers who discovered this idea in the past decade or so that RBI are a situational stat...it's pretty common sense.

 

I'm going to ignore the entire first paragraph because it's stooping to, well, my level lol. And it isn't three weeks, but ok.

 

What it's meant is to describe is how well a player performs with runners in scoring position, no? Just factoring in that a player can perform well (get a hit, get a walk) with the runner in scoring position doesn't mean that they'll get the RBI, that already shows that the statistic is pretty f***ing flawed.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm going to ignore the entire first paragraph because it's stooping to, well, my level lol. And it isn't three weeks, but ok.

 

What it's meant is to describe is how well a player performs with runners in scoring position, no? Just factoring in that a player can perform well (get a hit, get a walk) with the runner in scoring position doesn't mean that they'll get the RBI, that already shows that the statistic is pretty f***ing flawed.

 

Well it says you joined in May (this site started in May?) and we're on the 25th day in the month so it can't be too much more than three...unless you meant less than three lol

 

Technically avg or obp with RISP would be the best stat to judge how a player performs in the situation but I still don't see how that makes an RBI stat flawed.

 

Think Joe Carter's 1990 Season with SD. Then think who he had batting in front of him (Tony Gwynn, Bip Roberts and sometimes Jack Clark). Everyone sees Carter's season and knows it was s*** except RBI. What does it mean? It means he had a lot of guys on base before him for many of his AB, which is part of your argument but also pretty self-explanatory and obvious to most others, even in the pre-SABR acceptance days. But what it also means is what little use he had that season, he used to drive in runs. Clutch or whatever else you want to call it. RBI shows that even if you are a piece of s*** like Carter was in 1990, at least if there's a guy on third with one out you're going to have that tendency to do something other than strikeout or pop up in that situation. To be able to have 115 RBI with only 147 hits and 52 XBH in a full season is an impressive accomplishment in its own way and it tells you something about that player. Carter was intentionally walked 18 times that season. It certainly wasn't because of his tendency to get on-base otherwise.

[GD]

Well it says you joined in May (this site started in May?) and we're on the 25th day in the month so it can't be too much more than three...unless you meant less than three lol

 

Technically avg or obp with RISP would be the best stat to judge how a player performs in the situation but I still don't see how that makes an RBI stat flawed.

 

Think Joe Carter's 1990 Season with SD. Then think who he had batting in front of him (Tony Gwynn, Bip Roberts and sometimes Jack Clark). Everyone sees Carter's season and knows it was s*** except RBI. What does it mean? It means he had a lot of guys on base before him for many of his AB, which is part of your argument but also pretty self-explanatory and obvious to most others, even in the pre-SABR acceptance days. But what it also means is what little use he had that season, he used to drive in runs. Clutch or whatever else you want to call it. RBI shows that even if you are a piece of s*** like Carter was in 1990, at least if there's a guy on third with one out you're going to have that tendency to do something other than strikeout or pop up in that situation. To be able to have 115 RBI with only 147 hits and 52 XBH in a full season is an impressive accomplishment in its own way and it tells you something about that player. Carter was intentionally walked 18 times that season. It certainly wasn't because of his tendency to get on-base otherwise.

 

Wasn't it at the very, very beginning of May that the forum started? It's over 3 weeks by a bit, I think. Doesn't matter, not the focal point of this discussion.

 

I think all that's stopping us from agreeing here is that we're crossing up terms. I don't think that RBIs are a BAD stat, I just think that they're flawed in that they don't account for the whole picture and that's a flaw in them, and that they're not the best stat for the situation. But they're not bad, which I think you may be implying that I think. Did that sentence make sense? Probably not. I think that you think that I think that they're bad, is what I'm saying... haha, f*** the English language.

[Dr Negative]

No real need to trade off JJ until closer to the deadline. Other changes should be made in the offseason, preferably with a new GM.

[GD]

There is no such thing as clutch, that's the argument against RBI. There's no reason to believe it tells you anything batting average and other traditional stats don't.

 

It's descriptive, not predictive. Would it be swayed by BABIP luck too?

[Dr Negative]

I think hitting in clutch situations is different than normal situations but the problem is that it is hard to quantify statistically. I also imagine it is extremely variable since it would depend on a player's confidence (which will change month to month, never mind year to year) so it does not make a whole lot of sense to value it on the market.

[GD]

I think hitting in clutch situations is different than normal situations but the problem is that it is hard to quantify statistically. I also imagine it is extremely variable since it would depend on a player's confidence (which will change month to month, never mind year to year) so it does not make a whole lot of sense to value it on the market.

 

It's different, but players don't perform consistently in it, there's too much variance season to season.

[Pete_7]

Only position player I'd consider selling is Colby, I know they won't trade JP and there is no reason to move anyone else.

 

This team needs pitching, if we had any we would be golden

[EdelweissBouquet]

Really? Why? Why should it not need to be explained to a casual fan why RBI's are a flawed statistic? I'm sure you had it explained to you.

 

Actually you couldn't be more wrong. It very much needs to be explained to casual fans why RBIs are a flawed stat. The stat is still held on very high regard and its a big reason why last years MVP won.

 

Getting hits while men are in scoring position is a valuable

talent, just because math can't explain why a hitter

can only get on base when the bases are empty

and cannot evaluate a player dealing with high pressure

situations or lack of does not mean it doesn't translate

in the real non-math world.

[EdelweissBouquet]

It's different, but players don't perform consistently in it, there's too much variance season to season.

 

 

Why would a players confidence vary month to month?

The variance from season to season is what separates these

players from the great players who show very little variance.

Of course you're not going to fault any player if he never

has men on, but stats can factor that in.

[Caper]

Getting hits while men are in scoring position is a valuable

talent, just because math can't explain why a hitter

can only get on base when the bases are empty

and cannot evaluate a player dealing with high pressure

situations or lack of does not mean it doesn't translate

in the real non-math world.

 

 

I'm not going to argue, you may have a point.

 

There is a tendency for saber-metrics minded people to ignore something or pretend it doesn't exist if they can't somehow put it on a spreadsheet. There were a lot that argued PED's didn't help, because there seemed to be no predictable rate of increase of power, velocity, ect.

[oakville69]

Lind is unable to hit LHP. He was supposed to be platooned with Rajai Davis.

 

He's having a better year because Gibby won't let him hit against LHP.

 

JPA was in the cleanup spot until a few games ago.

[kgm1]

Only position player I'd consider selling is Colby, I know they won't trade JP and there is no reason to move anyone else.

 

This team needs pitching, if we had any we would be golden

 

Pitching and defense is now the big issue now that the offense has come around . We need to trade with 2014 in mind and thus have to aquire guys who don't need to be put on the 40 man roster . The 40 man has huge issues coming up as guys start coming back from the 60 day DL . Somewhere AA has to clear 7 roster spots

[o2cui2i]

We won't sell. AA won't admit defeat. He'll ride this out.

 

http://www.bimmerboost.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=20425&d=1346296930

[Captain Adama]

Getting hits while men are in scoring position is a valuable

talent, just because math can't explain why a hitter

can only get on base when the bases are empty

and cannot evaluate a player dealing with high pressure

situations or lack of does not mean it doesn't translate

in the real non-math world.

 

Sorry, were you actually implying that the real world actually doesn't have math incroporated into it?

[GD]

Why would a players confidence vary month to month?

The variance from season to season is what separates these

players from the great players who show very little variance.

Of course you're not going to fault any player if he never

has men on, but stats can factor that in.

 

I said nothing about confidence varying from month to month.

[bzapple]

So back on topic...

 

I know he's a fan favourite but if we're selling in July, Casey Janssen would make a pretty awesome trade chip. There are plenty of teams out there that pay big for dominant late inning relievers.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

I think it's more likely we see AA try to work out a long-term extension with Johnson to capitalize on his injury plagued season than to see him dealt.

[kgm1]

So back on topic...

 

I know he's a fan favourite but if we're selling in July, Casey Janssen would make a pretty awesome trade chip. There are plenty of teams out there that pay big for dominant late inning relievers.

 

Yes cheap BP arms like Janssen will be valuable come July but I'm not sure I trade him as He is just as valuable to us in 2014 . Lets face it we have used 10 different starters so far this year . No team wins with that many pitching injuries . We need to trade with 2014 in mind . Gose can take Rasmus,s spot and when Healthy Davis , Oliver and hopefully Izturis can be moved . DFA Blanco and De Rosa and that clears enough 40 man roster spots to build for next year .

[bzapple]

Yes cheap BP arms like Janssen will be valuable come July but I'm not sure I trade him as He is just as valuable to us in 2014 . Lets face it we have used 10 different starters so far this year . No team wins with that many pitching injuries . We need to trade with 2014 in mind . Gose can take Rasmus,s spot and when Healthy Davis , Oliver and hopefully Izturis can be moved . DFA Blanco and De Rosa and that clears enough 40 man roster spots to build for next year .

 

Well I'm not necessarily saying trade him just to replenish the farm. We recently saw the Red Sox for example deal young controllable players in Lowrie and Reddick for Melancon/Bailey (Janssen is easily better than either of those guys). If the opportunity comes up to acquire say, a young 2B who could help us as soon as next year, I'd be willing to take the hit in the bullpen. However this is all hypothetical as I doubt AA deals the proven closer.

[EdelweissBouquet]

Sorry, were you actually implying that the real world actually doesn't have math incroporated into it?

 

No, I'm saying there are things

in the real world that cannot be

validated by math.

[EdelweissBouquet]

I said nothing about confidence varying from month to month.

 

Sorry, got a few posts mixed up..someone else

made that statement.

[o2cui2i]

No, I'm saying there are things

in the real world that cannot be

validated by math.

 

everything can and is validated by math. there is nothing that comes outside of mathematics because math is the only true absolute in the universe.

 

just sayin

[GD]

everything can and is validated by math. there is nothing that comes outside of mathematics because math is the only true absolute in the universe.

 

just sayin

 

I don't need math to tell me JPA sucks.

[o2cui2i]

I don't need math to tell me JPA sucks.

 

whether you need it or not, there is math to tell you that he is and why.

[GD]

whether you need it or not, there is math to tell you that he is and why.

 

Math is everywhere we look. Which sucks, because I'm terrible at it lol.

[Dude]

Is this Richardjj from the other board?