Blue Jays prospects: Sleeper, bust and new legit guy

[bendera3]

I don't get the Urena bust train.

 

Guy just turned 20 and already has 128 PA in High A. Had good power in A ball as a 19 year old (15 HR in 400 PA, .172 ISO). ZiPS thinks he's already a replacement level player. BB rates don't matter much in the low minors, and he has an okay K rate for age/level. He hit more homers than Tellez did last year.

 

In my OOTP 17 franchise I accidentally let Urena go unprotected in the Rule 5 and he got drafted by the D-Backs and hit 30 homers and was top 5 in MVP voting.

 

Also that season the Jays won the World Series.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Angrioter]

Can we reinforce what the difference between new legit and sleeper is? New Legit = ranked on prospect lists (or mentioned), whereas sleeper guys will quietly put up good stats but not really get noticed by the media?

 

"New legit" is my Mexican term. NJH helped us with the definition.

[Angrioter]

I don't get the Urena bust train.

 

Guy just turned 20 and already has 128 PA in High A. Had good power in A ball as a 19 year old (15 HR in 400 PA, .172 ISO). ZiPS thinks he's already a replacement level player. BB rates don't matter much in the low minors, and he has an okay K rate for age/level. He hit more homers than Tellez did last year.

 

Ureña isn't Adam Jones. The kid is too aggressive at the home plate, with poor pitches recognition and below average runner for his position. I said 2 or 3 years ago that he's not the big deal.

[Laika]

I don't get the Urena bust train.

 

Guy just turned 20 and already has 128 PA in High A. Had good power in A ball as a 19 year old (15 HR in 400 PA, .172 ISO). ZiPS thinks he's already a replacement level player. BB rates don't matter much in the low minors, and he has an okay K rate for age/level. He hit more homers than Tellez did last year.

 

Basically comes down to two things...

 

- being highly ranked enough in the first place to "bust"

- an eye sore of a walk rate

 

Ok, a third thing - a .691 OPS while hitting 16 home runs. What?

 

There aren't a ton of options for the bust group. SRF (control) Pentecost (injuries) Harris (skill) and Urena are it. But Pentecost has already busted, for all intensive porpoises.

[P2F]

New legit guy: Vlad Jr., Greene

Sleeper: Hollon, Espada

Bust: SRF, Harris

[Cyborg]

for all intensive porpoises.

I hope this was on purpose.

[Laika]

I hope this was on purpose.

 

porpoise

[Boxcar]

I hope this was on purpose.

 

Jesus Christ. 20 humor detection tool.

[Pendleton]

New Legit Guy : SRF, Guerrero JR, Thomas

 

Sleeper: Smoral, Burns

 

Bust: Pentecost

[KingKat]

Busts: Anthony Alford, Max Pentecost, Andy Burns, Conner Greene, Vlad Guerrero Junior, Rowdy Tellez, Jon Harris, Sean Reid-Foley, Danny Jansen, Richard Urena, Dwight Smith, Jesus Tinoco, Shane Dawson, Francisco Rios, Clinton Hollon, Ryan Borucki.

 

New Legit Guy: Hansel Rodriguez

 

Sleepers: Yorman Rodriguez, Norberto Obeso, Sterling Guzman, Daniel Rodriguez, Jose Espada

[Sammy225]

All i am going to put in this thread is that Pentecost comes back from injury and swings a big stick. Likely at 1st Base

[Angrioter]

Busts: Anthony Alford, Max Pentecost, Andy Burns, Conner Greene, Vlad Guerrero Junior, Rowdy Tellez, Jon Harris, Sean Reid-Foley, Danny Jansen, Richard Urena, Dwight Smith, Jesus Tinoco, Shane Dawson, Francisco Rios, Clinton Hollon, Ryan Borucki.

 

New Legit Guy: Hansel Rodriguez

 

Sleepers: Yorman Rodriguez, Norberto Obeso, Sterling Guzman, Daniel Rodriguez, Jose Espada

 

That means gringos suxx, and latinos are good at baseball. Thanks.

[43211234]

Busts: Jesus Tinoco

 

He has been pretty terrible this season but he's not a Blue Jay!

[5minutesforframing]

Jesus tinoco amd Hansel Rodriguez have both been traded.

 

Thanks for the update Todd.

[Krylian]

Jesus tinoco amd Hansel Rodriguez have both been traded.

 

s***. When?

[King]

2017 time

 

Sleeper: Maximo Castillo

Bust: Harold Ramirez

New Legit Guy: Justin Maese

[burlingtonbandit]

Sleeper: Josh Palacios

Bust: Max Pentecost

New Legit Guy: Bo Bichette

[Cyborg]

Sleeper: David Jacob

Bust: Conner Greene

New Legit: David Jacob

[Jimcanuck]

Sleeper - Danny Jansen

Bust - Urena

Legit - Palacios

[Spanky99]

Meh...

[P2F]

Sleeper: McGregory Contreras

Bust: Jon Harris

New legit guy: Rowdy Tellez

[GreekFatAss]

Sleeper: Jose Espada

Bust: Rowdy Tellez

New legit guy: Bo Bichette

[43211234]

Sleeper: Palacios

Bust: Alford

New Legit Guy: Ryan Borucki

[Jimcanuck]

Assuming the couple of bust tags on Alford is due to the K rate?

[John_Havok]

Assuming the couple of bust tags on Alford is due to the K rate?

 

Just trying to be contrary. Theres no reason to put a bust tag on him at this point in his career at all.

[43211234]

Just trying to be contrary. Theres no reason to put a bust tag on him at this point in his career at all.

 

Not really. It's not like I want Alford to bust, I just see him as having the highest prospect stock variance among the top guys, with the K% something that could easily sink him. He essentially just repeated A+ and still has the big hurdle of A+ to AA to face this season. He could easily struggle to make contact at AA and have whispers start that maybe his 2015 was more than just injury luck.

 

When I think of bust I tend towards the top guys in the system, who you can at least reasonably expect to reach the majors. And among those guys they all have specific factors that their careers hinge on. They aren't really Devon Travis types who are sorta good at everything or a corner outfielder with average/above-average tools across the board. For someone like Tellez, it's so hard to comfortably expect the difference between the average bat that would sink him and the well above-average bat a guy like him needs to survive. It's similarly difficult to project a player whose big league career is so reliant on the hit tool like Urena is or to project a toolsy guy like Alford that lacks experience against upper-level pitching.

 

I feel like we'll have a clearer idea of Alford's fate at the end of the season than we will with some of the other top guys and the bust potential is definitely there. If someone like Pentecost flames out this year, sure, it's a bust when you look at his entire Blue Jays career but at this point in time it's not like he's anywhere near a top-100 list.

[John_Havok]

Not really. It's not like I want Alford to bust, I just see him as having the highest prospect stock variance among the top guys, with the K% something that could easily sink him. He essentially just repeated A+ and still has the big hurdle of A+ to AA to face this season. He could easily struggle to make contact at AA and have whispers start that maybe his 2015 was more than just injury luck.

 

When I think of bust I tend towards the top guys in the system, who you can at least reasonably expect to reach the majors. And among those guys they all have specific factors that their careers hinge on. They aren't really Devon Travis types who are sorta good at everything or a corner outfielder with average/above-average tools across the board. For someone like Tellez, it's so hard to comfortably expect the difference between the average bat that would sink him and the well above-average bat a guy like him needs to survive. It's similarly difficult to project a player whose big league career is so reliant on the hit tool like Urena is or to project a toolsy guy like Alford that lacks experience against upper-level pitching.

 

I feel like we'll have a clearer idea of Alford's fate at the end of the season than we will with some of the other top guys and the bust potential is definitely there. If someone like Pentecost flames out this year, sure, it's a bust when you look at his entire Blue Jays career but at this point in time it's not like he's anywhere near a top-100 list.

 

I agree that based on his skill set he has a higher bust potential and if you picked him to say you predict he will bust, not that he already is one... I can see the rationale. But for anyone to say he's already a bust is very premature.

 

He also has the floor of a plus defensive CF with burning speed, power potential and a good eye as evidenced by his increasing walk rate. Even if he can't contact as well he will still likely make the big leagues barring injury as a 4th OF/pinch runner, barring further injury issues.

 

So at that point I guess it depends on one's definition of bust.... making the majors but nowhere near your ceiling, or just never making it at all and getting punted, like Jake Anderson

[Angrioter]

Sleeper: Juan "Carlos Santana" Kelly

Bust: Conner Greene

New Legit Guy: T.J. Zeuch

[KingKat]

I used to think Anthony Gose had a really good floor because of the speed he brought to the OF and to the base paths. Figure he was at worst an excellent 4th OF. Is there a cautionary tale there about Alford? You could argue that Gose's physical tools WERE that of an excellent 4th OF and that it's only a bad makeup that kept him from reaching his floor and you could further argue that all Alford has to do is keep a good head on his shoulders to reach his floor. But even thout what happened to Gose isn't predictive of what will happen to Alford, I would still argue that there's a cautionary tale there, albeit a broad one, about overestimating a player's floor. Hardly any prospects have a floor of productive major leaguer. It's nearly always lower than that.