The Prospect/Minor Leagues Thread

[King]

Kramer Champlin (released in October) suspended 50 games for drug of abuse

[Boxcar]

I know people are gonna be offended by this but here it goes, "makeup" issues are thrown around pretty casually at black and latino players in Baseball, especially super athletic guys like Pompey. Its sometimes used as a codeword for "uppity" and less than humble/not subservient, and interestingly Pompey doesn't come across as cocky(which for some reason is seen as a negative trait in an athlete but only in selected cases, see Puig vs Harper) in interviews and on twitter.

 

Makes sense when most scouts are old white dudes.

[jays_fever]

lol this is probably the same twat that said our team had to many Dominicans on the team to really grind out wins.

[Boxcar]

And really, scouts need to lay off the f***ing "makeup" opinion. Its like it gives them an option for righteous judgement. The best players in the history of baseball had terrible make up, what the hell does it matter as long as the player is good?

[burlingtonbandit]

And really, scouts need to lay off the f***ing "makeup" opinion. Its like it gives them an option for righteous judgement. The best players in the history of baseball had terrible make up, what the hell does it matter as long as the player is good?

 

Makeup is a broad term that could mean a lot of different things. In terms of makeup being a douchebag, no that really doesn't make a difference. But if they have poor makeup as in a bad work eithic and/or lazy that is a thing you would want to stay away from especially when we are talking about prospects. Guys can have great talent but if they don't work hard they can easily flame out and probably do more than guys with a great work ethic.

[TwistedLogic]

Can we not use Steve Adams as a source for anything ever again please?

[Deadpool]

Ftfy u fob

 

Implying Ang has been on a boat... f***er is still down there in Mexico or Cuba or wherever Mexicans come from...

[Angrioter]

KLaw: 2015 ranking of all 30 farm systems

Blue Jays #19?

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12211903/chicago-cubs-no-1-farm-system-rankings-2015-mlb?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_law_2015rankingall30farmsystems

[burlingtonbandit]

Was just about to see if anyone can post it..Apparently Jays are 19th. Law has fallen a lot recently but still interested to hear what he has to say.

[burlingtonbandit]

I wonder if Law counts Norris, Sanchez and Pompey as graduated because that write-up is underwhelming.

[Laika]

I wonder if Law counts Norris, Sanchez and Pompey as graduated because that write-up is underwhelming.

 

pretty sure he does

[bendera3]

Former Jays farmhand Mike Crouse signed with my hometown Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League. A few years ago Beebop Tallet was on the team.

[TwistedLogic]

Former Jays farmhand Mike Crouse signed with my hometown Lancaster Barnstormers of the Atlantic League. A few years ago Beebop Tallet was on the team.

 

I used to be so high on Crouse and Knecht a few years ago

 

Speaking of which, I found the top 50 prospects list I submitted to another site pre-2012...

 

My top ten were...

 

http://i.gyazo.com/acd08ce86e5db5b231c38ef1b22e955a.png

 

It's pretty damn crazy that there's only been two real bust-ish guys from that list so far.

 

And I'm proud of myself for having ranked Norris ahead of Sanchez even then, lol.

[Deadpool]

pretty sure he does

 

Apparently not...

[GD]

f*** you, Jacob Anderson is not a bust.^^

[Angrioter]

Apparently not...

 

f*** you, Jacob Anderson is not a bust.^^

 

Jacob Anderson the next Steven Moya or Teoscar Hernandez.

 

btw Nicolino isn't that great.

[Laika]

Apparently not...

 

I don't see how you can reasonably rank them 19th when they have 3 top ~50 prospects that are major league ready. The value from those 3 alone should = top half farm.

 

But whatever.

[GD]

Some might remember the first Anthony Alford we chose, Luke Willson. He signed with us in 2011 as a 1B.

 

He chose to play football, and will now be playing in the Super Bowl with the Seahawks tomorrow (today?).

[burlingtonbandit]

Some might remember the first Anthony Alford we chose, Luke Willson. He signed with us in 2011 as a 1B.

 

He chose to play football, and will now be playing in the Super Bowl with the Seahawks tomorrow (today?).

 

Wow I didn't even realize thats the same guy. Wilson definitely made the right call choosing football.

[TwistedLogic]

I'll take this as pretty great news, considering this guy had TJS just eight friggin months ago...

[Deadpool]

I'll take this as pretty great news, considering this guy had TJS just eight friggin months ago...

 

I'd like to add six or seven more thanks and a round of thumbs up to this post. Smack of the ball hitting the glove there was pretty damn sexy...

[TwistedLogic]

Can an angel with a BP subscription please post the full version of this article from a few days ago?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25441

[ace3113]

Can an angel with a BP subscription please post the full version of this article from a few days ago?

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25441

 

For 2015

 

Kris Bryant, Cubs

 

Ever heard of him? Bryant is the consensus no. 1 fantasy prospect in baseball after a season in which he hit .355/.458/.702 in Double-A and then wasn’t much worse in Iowa. The 23-year-old can hit for massive power, has the potential to hit for a decent average and will even throw in a few steals early in his career. He’s not a perfect prospect: he strikes out a lot, he’s not a great bet to hit above .275 with regularity and he could be an outfielder. But he has the best combination of upside and floor in the minors when it comes to a fantasy bat, and even if he moves to the outfield (or, god forbid, first base) he’s a potential monster. It’s not hard to see him amassing in excess of 300 PA in 2015 and finishing as a top-100 player as soon as 2016.

 

Maikel Franco, Phillies

 

We’ve spent so much time picking apart the flaws in Franco’s profile; he’s not an adept defender at third, he thinks he can hit everything, he doesn’t walk enough; that it’s easy to overlook what’s attractive about the package here. A 6+ potential power tool and a 5+ potential hit tool in Citizens Bank Park? Thank you sir, I’ll have another. Franco has hit somewhere between “respectably” and “really well” at every MiLB level, he’s 22, he should see substantial time in the majors in 2015 and he’ll at least start his career at third base. The reason Franco thinks he can hit everything is generally because he has to this point, and I’m ok with gambling on a player with natural bat speed and bat-to-ball ability. That being said, there’s a lot of room between .280 with 25 homers at third and .260 with 18 homers at first, which seem equally plausible outcomes.

 

D.J. Peterson, Mariners

 

From a fantasy perspective--not a scouting perspective--Franco and Peterson have pretty similar final products to offer. Peterson is another guy with a penchant for punishing baseballs, perhaps giving up a bit of natural bat-to-ball ability to Franco but making up that ground with a more sound approach. The problem here is that we’re not evaluating Franco and Peterson in a vacuum; we’re judging the latter knowing he’s in an org that’s failed miserably at developing hitters (with apologies to Kyle Seager), calls a power-suppressing park home and has a long-term solution at the position at which Peterson profiles best, third base. If he’s traded, Peterson could be a lucrative third base option for the first few years of his career. If he stays in Seattle, he’s probably a second-division first baseman, and that’s a bummer. There’s a lot of room between .280 with 25 homers at third and .260 with 18 homers at first, which seem equally plausible outcomes.

 

Garin Cecchini, Red Sox

 

Hahahaha did you really think I was going to stop talking about Cecchini? I never will. The Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez signings mean his future isn’t in Boston, which is a bit of a bummer considering the offensive environment in which he could’ve developed. But maybe, just maybe, the Sandoval and Ramirez deals precipitate Cecchini’s move out of town, which at this point is a good thing for his fantasy value. Scouts still don’t agree whether there’s a legit first-division starter or a fringy second-division guy here, but in OBP leagues he’s going to be good, and he still has a chance to be relevant in 5x5 leagues, too. He doesn’t profile as a star, but ignore him at your own peril.

 

Jacob Lamb, Diamondbacks

 

At a certain point, when a player keeps on hitting his way through the minors, we need to be willing to change our initial perceptions about said player. We’re entering that territory with Lamb, who put some “yeah but that’s the Cal League” doubts to rest by crushing Double-A in 2014, then somewhat holding his own in the majors. There are contact and approach issues that mitigate some of Lamb’s upside, but he’s got pop, plays in a good ballpark for power and has a chance to see semi-regular time in 2015. In an ideal developmental world he accumulates at-bats in Triple-A for most of the year, but he’ll be interesting if he’s pressed into service. Then again, that sounds a lot like ...

 

Matt Davidson, White Sox

 

Hitting .199/.283/.362 is maybe not so great, especially not when it comes in Triple-A as a 23-year-old. Yet before we move Davidson to “We Hardly Knew Ye,” let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s just one year removed from crushing the same level that just crushed him, and while there have always been concerns about his hit tool, he’s an adjustment away from at least being able to hold his own. Conor Gillaspie is the only thing that stands in his way at the MLB level, which is a kind way of saying nothing is standing in his way at all. He’s one of my favorite post-hype prospects for 2015, as you’ll get him for free and he could provide a modest reward by mid-season.

 

Others: Christian Villanueva, Cubs; Cheslor Cuthbert, Royals; Patrick Kivlehan, Mariners; Giovanny Urshela, Indians; Kyle Kubtiza, Angels; Ryan Rua, Rangers

 

2016 and Beyond

 

Miguel Sano, Twins

 

Take everything you knew about Sano heading into 2014 before his Tommy John surgery and apply it to Sano now. Nothing’s changed in his profile, and while a year of lost development time and an elbow boo-boo aren’t good signs, they’re hardly deal breakers, either. Sano is more athletic than you’d assume, with a natural physicality and attitude that tells you he knows he’s going to do very bad things to baseballs when he’s at the plate. The AVG is in question, but the power isn’t, and he’s as good a bet as anyone in the minors to blossom into a perennial 30-homer threat. Even with the surgery under (above?) his belt, there’s a good chance that power come while Sano plays third base, making him an extraordinarily exciting potential fantasy asset. If someone has prospect fatigue and wants to jump ship for a less-blemished product, jump all over that.

 

Joey Gallo, Rangers

 

A year ago, some of the sport’s more embarrassing fantasy analysts couldn’t even pronounce Gallo’s name. Viewed as a boom-or-bust prospect who was far more likely to bust, Gallo’s power was legendary, but so too was the breeze created by his massive swings-and-misses. Gallo started to assuage some of those fears in 2014, laying waste to High-A as a 20-year-old before hitting for prodigious power and a lower average in Double-A. What was especially heartening was the more refined approach Gallo showed in Myrtle Beach. Yes, that was largely wiped away once he reached Frisco, but given how aggressively he’s being pushed that’s no surprise. Gallo can strike out in a third of his at-bats and still be a devastatingly effective fantasy player at the MLB level because he has the most raw power in the minors; we’re talking about Bryce Harper-, Giancarlo Stanton-type pop here. Odds are he needs to spend a good amount of time in the upper minors, but the upside is a top-50 fantasy player, even if a very ugly floor still exists as a possibility, too.

 

Rafael Devers, Red Sox

 

Devers is shiny and new. He has never been bad at professional baseball, and so it’s very, very easy to love him. You know better than to get carried away after 300 PA in Rookie Ball, but now everyone’s ranking him so high and he has so much promise and he’s never failed you. Devers is going to fail you at some point. He’s not a perfect prospect, he’s not a lock to stay at third base, he’s a million years away. Devers is already on the short list of third basemen with the highest fantasy upside in the minors, though, and that’s pretty neat for an 18-year-old.

 

Ryan McMahon, Rockies

 

I feel like I shouldn’t even be speaking about McMahon; he belongs to Craig Goldstein; but I’ll see if I can do his profile justice here. He’s got big natural power, a potentially above average hit tool and is a lock to stay at the hot corner. Reverse the hit and power tools and that sounds a lot like the guy Colorado has at third base right now, but McMahon is still in the low minors, and we have a long time before we need to worry about a logjam. The ETA is probably 2017 or 2018, but McMahon has top-10 fantasy third baseman potential, which, according to Craig and Bret Sayre, only puts him 70 or 80 slots behind Forrest Wall.

 

Hunter Dozier, Royals

 

Dozier crushed it in High-A as a 22-year-old in 2014 but found Double-A to be a more daunting challenge. His prodigious natural power wasn’t fully on display, as he hit just nine homers all year, and the disparity in his AVG between Wilmington (.296) and Northwest Arkansas (.209) make it difficult to project that number, too. Unfortunately, the latter more accurately represents Dozier’s hit tool at present, but there’s still the potential for him to hit around .250 with a solid OBP and 20-plus bombs, which is valuable in today’s offensive environment. The upside isn’t huge here, but he could still be the second-best infielding Dozier in the AL Central.

 

Brandon Drury, Diamondbacks

 

Whoa, a guy put up good stats in the Cal League and now everyone likes him! Yes, that petty sarcasm belies Drury’s ability on a baseball diamond, but his overall solid game is more exciting IRL than it is for fantasy purposes. He’s not devoid of upside, and if Drury is to serve as Arizona’s third baseman of the future he’d benefit from great contextual factors. Still, we’re a year-plus away from that happening, and there’s actually a fair amount of competition in the org. If you love Drury and don’t like Garin Cecchini, we’re not boys.

 

Rio Ruiz, Braves

 

Another questionable defender, Ruiz lacks the plus offensive profile of some of the others names on this list, which is why he finds himself near the bottom here. The hit tool is promising at times and he’s got a bit of natural pop, but one of those skills is going to need to take a substantial step forward if the fantasy profile is to become more interesting. The .293/.387/.436 line from 2014 looks pretty, but in the Cal League it’s more “solid” than “outstanding.” More like Rio de Janeiric, IMO.

 

Colin Moran, Astros

 

Moran has received more early negative reviews than the Double Down Dog, and if you look at any of his MiLB stats other than AVG, it’s not tough to see why. Forget about draft pedigree here for a second: a player who’s not a lock to stick at third base, doesn’t offer much power and is getting slammed left and right for being a “low-energy” player isn’t a great buy. He might get to call Houston home for a minute or two before Carlos Correa kicks Jed Lowrie to third, but that’s not enough to get him close to top-100 fantasy prospect status. The Marlins were smart to spare themselves further indigestion, and if someone is attracted to the name value in your fantasy league, follow suit.

 

Others: Eric Jagielo, Yankees; Renato Nunez; Michael Chavis, Red Sox; Nick Delmonico, Brewers; Wyatt Mathisen, Pirates; Ti’Quan Forbes, Rangers; Patrick Wisdom, Cardinals; Mitch Nay, Blue Jays; Jeimer Candelario, Cubs; Victor Caratini, Cubs; Drew Ward, Nationals; Jhoan Urena, Mets; Gilbert Lara, Brewers, Gavin LaValley, Reds

 

We Hardly Knew Ye

 

Kaleb Cowart, Angels

Dante Bichette Jr., Yankees

Richie Shaffer, Rays

Zack Cox, Marlins

Josh Vitters, Cubs

[TwistedLogic]

Thanks a ton, ace. Was hoping they had a write-up on Nay. Oh well.

 

Trying to find a report or an opinion or basically anything to convince me that I'm wrong in being so low on Nay.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70626

 

(Howie from NYC)

Have you gotten to see Mitch Nay and/or Stryker Trahan lately? How are their developments going?

 

(Jordan Gorosh)

Nay has had to adjust/readjust a few times already this year. Has had some pitch rec issues, and the defense is suspect. I think he's a tweener/platoon masher at the end of the day. Dude can hit, but I don't think it's an every day profile.

 

Trahan looked abysmal when I saw him. Long, slow, out of whack. Going to need to make some big overhauls to make it above AA.

 

(Karl from San Angelo)

Two 3B prospects that seem to be hitting well: Hunter Dozier and Mitch Nay. What's your thoughts on them? High ceilings?

 

(Bret Sayre)

I'm a bigger fan of Dozier as he's the better hitter. Nay has a little more power, but his minor league numbers overstate his fantasy potential and I'm not sure how much of that power is usable. Dozier's ceiling is a high-average, decent power third baseman. Those are in pretty high demand these days.

[TwistedLogic]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70626

 

Yeah I caught those on his BP page. None of that makes me feel any better about him than before. It just reaffirms the doubts I have about him.

 

To be honest, I can't really justify ranking Nay ahead of a guy like Tellez, who is already far better than him against similar competition (both spent time at Lansing last year), despite being two years younger. Neither guy is gonna flash a golden glove or set the basepaths on fire. Both guys were touted for their pop, except that Nay has yet to translate that in any capacity to actual games.

 

The only thing that people have against Tellez is his size, which doesn't bother me at all. We'll get his younger years, where it shouldn't be a problem.

[jays4life19]

Sounds like the Jays have let Kal go. It's the end of an era.

 

I found the news after seeing his generic Twitter profile.

 

Finally.

[Angrioter]

He told me on Twitter that he's still hoping to play affiliated ball this year. The Whoppers will root for him wherever he ends up.

 

Insane

Kalfus > DJ Davis

[King]

Yeah he was released back in September after the C's season ended. Not sure if he'll get any offers from affiliated teams after riding the pine in NWL all season, but you never know.

 

Would be funny if he signed to play Indy ball for my hometown team haha.

[L54]

Yeah he was released back in September after the C's season ended. Not sure if he'll get any offers from affiliated teams after riding the pine in NWL all season, but you never know.

 

Would be funny if he signed to play Indy ball for my hometown team haha.

 

Great atmosphere and one of the nicest parks around. I got to play there as a 15 year old with Team Sask. Good memories there!