NHL Thread

[Boxcar]

Can you even skate?

 

I mean, technically

[Jimcanuck]

Bad premonition in a dream last night. Austin Matthews hit a walk off grand slam and was injured in the home plate celebration.

[BTS]

Bad premonition in a dream last night. Austin Matthews hit a walk off grand slam and was injured in the home plate celebration.

 

A season ending Matthews injury would be amazing.

[jays4life19]

It's not really cool to wish injury on anyone with the exception of Toronto Maple Leaf players.

[Krylian]

Go Leafs Go!!

[Spanky__99]

Hahaha... the salt is real. Stay Salty...

 

[Jimcanuck]

Leafs with best odds, Sens way down at the bottom

 

Toronto Maple Leafs +650

Tampa Bay Lightning +800

Winnipeg Jets +850

Nashville Predators +1100

Vegas Golden Knights +1100

Washington Capitals +1100

Boston Bruins +1100

Pittsburgh Penguins +1200

San Jose Sharks +1500

St. Louis Blues +2000

Los Angeles Kings +2600

Philadelphia Flyers +2600

Edmonton Oilers +3000

Anaheim Ducks +3000

Dallas Stars +3000

Columbus Blue Jackets +3000

Calgary Flames +3300

Chicago Blackhawks +3500

Minnesota Wild +3500

Colorado Avalanche +4000

New Jersey Devils +4000

Florida Panthers +4500

New York Rangers +8500

Carolina Hurricanes +10000

Montreal Canadiens +10000

Buffalo Sabres +10000

New York Islanders +10000

Arizona Coyotes +10000

Vancouver Canucks +12500

Detroit Red Wings +20000

Ottawa Senators +20000

[Krylian]

Leafs shouldn't have the best odds clearly. But the fact that they're in the conversation is what gets me excited. I'll be really curious to see how their defensive play holds up. That'll be the make or break.

[BTS]

Looking over the Leafs roster. What’s the plan for Gardiner? Let him walk after the season?

[Jimcanuck]

Leafs shouldn't have the best odds clearly. But the fact that they're in the conversation is what gets me excited. I'll be really curious to see how their defensive play holds up. That'll be the make or break.

 

Hope they finally move that one dimensional Willie for a D-man. They've got Marner, Kapanen, Brown on the right side.

[Jimcanuck]

Looking over the Leafs roster. What’s the plan for Gardiner? Let him walk after the season?

 

They either trade him during the season or let him walk. No way he gets retained, not with Liljegren likely ready next year.

[Krylian]

I think they want to re-sign Gardiner. Whether they can fit him in is another story. I also don't think they're going to hand Liljegren the reigns to start next season. If anything, they'll give him a shot a la Dermott as long as he earns it. He only just turned 19.

[Boxcar]

Leafs shouldn't have the best odds clearly. But the fact that they're in the conversation is what gets me excited. I'll be really curious to see how their defensive play holds up. That'll be the make or break.

 

Probably all the idiot leaves fans shoveling money into the furnace. It's like every year people need to be reminded that books don't make predictions, they react to the market and right now that market is filled with morons who see a year where the Leaves finally don't get knocked out in the first round, which automatically means wooo cup winnarz!!!

[Krylian]

Probably all the idiot leaves fans shoveling money into the furnace. It's like every year people need to be reminded that books don't make predictions, they react to the market and right now that market is filled with morons who see a year where the Leaves finally don't get knocked out in the first round, which automatically means wooo cup winnarz!!!

 

Big off-season = Vegas reacts

 

Same as Jays in 2013. Recency bias.

[TheHurl]

Leafs shouldn't have the best odds clearly. But the fact that they're in the conversation is what gets me excited. I'll be really curious to see how their defensive play holds up. That'll be the make or break.

 

They are only the lowest odds because Leaf fans are so douchey they want to have that ticket that says they bet them to win (even if just $10), that way when the Leafs win (say year 2060) they can show how much faith they had in the team (and how much better they are of a fan than their other fans). I think it was 2010-11 I was in Vegas in late October and Leafs had a great start to the season and I got into a conversation with the manager at the Mirage sportsbook and he said that the Leafs were about 40% of his futures (including football) and about 90% of his hockey futures. Bet down to 3-1 or something like that. I'm not actually seeing anything of value in this years odds. Maybe Minnesota at 35-1 or the Panthers. There is no value in betting futures in Hockey unless it's a real longshot. Odds barely change at playoff time.

 

I will say the Sens should be way over whatever their points total is set at.

[Jimcanuck]

I think they want to re-sign Gardiner. Whether they can fit him in is another story. I also don't think they're going to hand Liljegren the reigns to start next season. If anything, they'll give him a shot a la Dermott as long as he earns it. He only just turned 19.

 

Dubas too smart to sign a mistake prone d-man in his decline years to a multi year

[Krylian]

They are only the lowest odds because Leaf fans are so douchey they want to have that ticket that says they bet them to win (even if just $10), that way when the Leafs win (say year 2060) they can show how much faith they had in the team (and how much better they are of a fan than their other fans). I think it was 2010-11 I was in Vegas in late October and Leafs had a great start to the season and I got into a conversation with the manager at the Mirage sportsbook and he said that the Leafs were about 40% of his futures (including football) and about 90% of his hockey futures. Bet down to 3-1 or something like that. I'm not actually seeing anything of value in this years odds. Maybe Minnesota at 35-1 or the Panthers. There is no value in betting futures in Hockey unless it's a real longshot. Odds barely change at playoff time.

 

I will say the Sens should be way over whatever their points total is set at.

 

So are Jays fans douchey as well considering the 2013 odds?

[Krylian]

Dubas too smart to sign a mistake prone d-man in his decline years to a multi year

 

It would have to be the right dollar amount and term of course. I'm not convinced that he's back but I know Dubas has mentioned that they'd like to extend Gardiner. Now... Is that lip service? Quite possibly. But it was said. Maybe he wants to bring him back for 2 years and $8m (which would never happen)... Who knows

[BTS]

If Gardiner repeats his season from last year it seems like he’d be in line for like 5-6 years @6+ per year

[Krylian]

If Gardiner repeats his season from last year it seems like he’d be in line for like 5-6 years @6+ per year

 

Yup. The offense is very good and someone will pay for it (literally and figuratively). He doesn't fit in with the Leafs at that price. If he's interested in taking a major discount then maybe, but that's highly unlikely.

[Frag]

Yup. The offense is very good and someone will pay for it (literally and figuratively). He doesn't fit in with the Leafs at that price. If he's interested in taking a major discount then maybe, but that's highly unlikely.

 

Only issue is that he's currently the team's best defenceman (although, Dermott looks like he could be better), which is hard to replace.

[Jimcanuck]

Only issue is that he's currently the team's best defenceman (although, Dermott looks like he could be better), which is hard to replace.

 

Reilly is better.

 

"Morgan Rielly had his best season in the NHL this past season. In 76 games, he registered 6 goals, 46 assists and 25 PPP. He was among the best defenseman in the NHL this season, being one of only three players (along with Doughty and Hedman) to play against top competition while scoring 50 points and putting up a positive corsi."

[Spanky__99]

Dubas too smart to sign a mistake prone d-man in his decline years to a multi year

 

[Jimcanuck]

Spanky, the decline for a d-man starts roughly at 28 years old Signing Gardiner, a defenseman that relies on speed more than physicality, to a multi year as he enters his age 29 season is to be avoided if possible. I would be very surprised if Dubas signs him given the cap crunch the Leafs will be in.

[Spanky__99]

Spanky, the decline for a d-man starts roughly at 28 years old Signing Gardiner, a defenseman that relies on speed more than physicality, to a multi year as he enters his age 29 season is to be avoided if possible. I would be very surprised if Dubas signs him given the cap crunch the Leafs will be in.

 

I agree with not signing him, cause there's bigger fish to fry, but a 28 year old Defenseman is hardly in his decline, he's in his prime.

[Jimcanuck]

I agree with not signing him, cause there's bigger fish to fry, but a 28 year old Defenseman is hardly in his decline, he's in his prime.

 

that's not correct, performance curves show decline starting at 28 for d-men

 

Reilly is in his prime

[Spanky__99]

that's not correct, performance curves show decline starting at 28 for d-men

 

Reilly is in his prime

 

Really, I've always assumed the D-man matures later in age, and guys like Reilly are the exception. Where'd you read this, I'm intrigued? To be honest, I thought Jake should be a winger, a good 2-way player.

 

P.S I still believe he's in his prime, but it's moot as I doubt the Leafs re-sign him.

[Jimcanuck]

plenty of charts here

 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

 

rate of decline depends on methodology, but shows for d-men performance somewhat plateau'ed then around age 28 a noticeable downward slide

 

clutch and grab era the decline was probably later and more gradual

[Spanky__99]

plenty of charts here

 

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23/a-new-look-at-aging-curves-for-nhl-skaters-part-1/

 

rate of decline depends on methodology, but shows for d-men performance somewhat plateau'ed then around age 28 a noticeable downward slide

 

clutch and grab era the decline was probably later and more gradual

 

That makes sense, thanks. Thing is Gardiner's a fantastic skater, so I doubt the decline hits him at his age 29 through 32 years, I can see it after that.

[Krylian]

f*** the Habs