Olerud363.354
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Everything posted by Olerud363.354
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Guy that hits the ball 440 feet off Ohtani doesn't seem like he would have 12th percentile bat speed. Squares it up a lot, but how do you hit it 440 feet with 12th percentile bat speed? https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb Maybe the bat speed thing is biased somehow. I guess must have different speed of swing as his Ohtani homer was 79 mph compared to a reported average of 69.
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Bo Bichette apparently has 12th percentile bat speed, 1 percentile range, 21 percentile speed and 36 percentile arm, 12th percentile chase yet must do something else well. I bet Jose Ramirez had awful statcast first couple of years to. Maybe Holiday will do what Bichette or Ramirez do.
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I'll admit I'm nitpicking, and you are right Haladay's tools are pretty lame.... but twice as good by WAR is less meaningful 2-1 then it is 8-4. In the limit of that framework some guy with 0.2 WAR is infiinitely better than someone with 0 WAR. Need to use "wins above nothing" for the ratio to be meaningful. For some reason Witt's age 22 season he had a .314 xwOBA and Holliday a .312 xwOBA about the same. Their expected hitting, defense was similar. Witt's advantage was all baserunning. I do see Halladay's tools are blue... so not sure how their xwOBAs (2022 and 2025) ended up so close.
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Jackson Holliday's age 21 season is pretty similar to Bobby Witt Jrs age 22 season. Witt was better, but just a bit. A lot of development left here.
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The Orioles delusional optimists (like myself) probably deserve some ribbing... (never a fanboy just thought they collected so many young players they couldn't fail). However c'mon https://www.thebanner.com/sports/orioles-mlb/orioles-colton-cowser-broken-ribs-injuries-N7F4QE72M5GHHHTYSOPJYX5DIQ/ Guy was injured, just like Bichette in 2024. This whole... 'never realized that so and so was -1 WAR and completely sucks at the age of 25 lol. Orioles done' is stupid. A lot of guys were injured, maybe some randomly under-performed. Regression to the mean is a thing, even with a team you dislike.
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On the topic of Orioles one fascinating thing is how similar Kirk and Rutschman's lifetime stats are to each other. Even their "good" and "bad" seasons are kind of similar. Both are like 15 fWAR lifetime. Kirk fatter still, shorter and a year younger. There was like a moment when Rutchman looked fit, healthy, performing, able to DH when not catching, and Kirk looked like a .250 hitting obese noodle struggling to play 100 games a year. That was like 12 months ago. Now they look they same career-stats wise but with a Kirk at a high point.
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This is just as dumb, or actually dumber then anointing Elias a genius in the midst of a 102 win season. Elias collected a lot of talent, the talent under-performed. Guys like Henderson, Rutchman still have elite projections. Then they have tonne's of guys projected for like 2 WAR in 100 games and out of that collection some will over-perform so would not surprise me if they are right back in the middle of things next year. We will see... The one thing I predicted would happen that has not, and is running out of time to happen, is for the Orioles to get back to 3 million a year attendance. That was one of the reasons, remembering what the 90s were like, I thought the Orioles were in great shape for a long run of success. Get the attendance up, get the revenue up, re-invest, keep the wins up, keep the attendance up, re-invest. Jays have a good shot at that now. Critical year for both franchises to become a Red Sox/Phillies/Mets like organization with multi-generation (a generation being a group of players) that can be successful for a couple decades.
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A big if, but if they were all healthy that is a good rotation. Just stats-scouting that they were all pretty good at times last couple of years but make between 4 and 20 starts. Critical year for them. One of the reasons I thought Orioles would have an extended run ;is that in the 90s they were similar to the Jays, in that they got a new ballpark, had some success and generated a tonne of money, then were a big payroll team and free-agent spender for a few years. Part of the extended success model would have been for them to build revenue, which last year destroyed that momentum. Instead the Jays had a magical year with insane revenue.
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Anything can happen, especially if Grayson goes to the bullpen but I guess the medicals aren't clean on Rodriguez. This idea of medicals isn't black and white. Medicals aren't clean on Grayson, Hoffman and likely Bieber. Their value is down but it's all just very gray. Maybe using a closer without clean medicals will burn you, or maybe it won't. Maybe Bieber loves his friends, or maybe his arm hurts. Probably the medicals say Grayson is in for a rough road but isn't completely worthless, and the Angels will take the risk while the Orioles want to contend next year and get more certainty.
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Soto = 750 million (2026 projected = 6) Vladdy = 500 million (2026 projected = 5) Tucker = 400 million (2026 projected = 4.4) Bo = ? million (2026 projected = 4)
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If you just go by WAR and say Tucker's fWar worth a 400 million than Bo fWAR worth 320 million, based on the 5 to 4 ratio that the fangraphs website reports. If you say the ratio between something other than 5-4 than maybe there are reasons that you have but one of the reasons is NOT backward fWAR.
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Both have played about 750 games, 5 fWAR per 150 for Tucker, 4 fWAR per 150 for Bo Bo 122 wRC+. Tucker 138 wRC+. Tucker is better going backward. But very slow bat for such a good hitter. But actually Bo even slower bat. Vlad fast bat. Tucker medium. Bo slow. I think it is true see https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
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Tucker. Not entertaining. No 80 grade tools but better WAR than Vladdy. If I was an agent I'd sell Vlad on the tools and entertainment, and Tucker on the solid performance. The question is whether the the data supports Tucker going forward as a 5 WAR guy without elite tools? 5 WAR is 5 WAR whether you do it with tools or not. But the tools may indicate something about how it goes moving forward to age 29-39.
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He has the same lifetime wRC+ and wOBA as Vlad Guerrero Jr. with much better defense and baserunning. Not that you are wrong. The things that he is great at are chase% and bb% and I don't know enough to say if those are tools that will age well. Things that he is good are sweet spot %. Things Guerrero is good at is hitting the ball harder than anyone but not quite getting the results you expect consistently (though has had his moments for months at a time, including the 2025 playoffs). Tucker's tools, outside of plate discipline, are from what I can see, worse than Guerroros (exit velocity, spring speed, arm all worse... which sort of makes you wonder if Guerrero should be playing some outfield and third). Anyway the agents will put together a package highlighting the players strengths and making the comparions good as possible. So the agent will have a Tucker/Guerrero comparison package that will use wRC+, defense and baserunning to argue Tucker deserves as much if not more. Not saying agent will convince a team, but just needs to convince one.
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Steamer has Clement at 1.6 in 118 games with declining defense. Weird thing is that it has Varsho's defense going negative. So not sure exactly why it is predicting these guys to fall off a cliff defensively. Clement in 150 games with decent defense is more like 3 WAR again... so if you make that trade by projections you assume the model is correctly modeling Clement's defense and playing time... which it may not be.
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What do you think he'd cost? Years ago Blue Jays got Randal Grichuk and Aledmys Diaz from the Cardinals, at a similar age and stage of career, and they cost almost nothing. Daulton Varsho cost a top 5 (overall in MLB) prospect and Gurriel. Interesting that the incremental cost between 2 WAR projected guys and 4 WAR projected guys was so steep. If you consider Donavan a 3 WAR projected guy what is the price? (of course beyond WAR and projections there are all kinds of internals we don't know about)
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He has an almost .400 minor league on base percentage. The projection systems don't seem to like him that much, but still project him as better hitter than IKF. Projected for a .320 on base in the majors. Just eyeballing the projections they have him at 1/2 a win better than IKF in limited time.
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Rather have had Cavan on the team then IKF I think. Just the story. Legacy trio wins world series 1. Vlad Guerrero greatest playoffs ever 2. Bo Bichette inspirational comeback and big World Series hits on one knee 3. Cavan Biggio - hits .100 and scores winning run with 80th percentile sprint speed and max use of sliding glove Craig would be proud for sure.
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Scored more runs in 2021 and 2022 (with respect to league average) I was critical of Shapiro and Atkins in late 2023 when it looked like they were way behind the curve with respect to Baltimore and Tampa Bay. 2025 that has obviously changed. Is it sustainable? We will see. Interesting to look at key players (by WAR) and how Atkins got them Bichette, Kirk, Barger, Schneider, Yesivage - signed/drafted developed by Atkins Guerrero - signed by AA, developed by Atkins team, signed long term by Atkins Springer, Gaussman, Bassit, Hoffman, Santander - big ticket free agent signings. Clement, Straw, Lukes, Lauer, Heineman - Free struggling minor league vet reclamation projects (I know Straw was kind of accidental but still fits that profile as he was in the minors all of 2024) Varsho, Berrios, Giminez, Bieber - acquired for Atkins draft picks Morena/Martin/Horwitz Probably forgetting a few people and bullpen pieces
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He had 1 fWAR in 50 games. I mean... c'mon. I didn't say "he is showing consistent year to year 3 WAR performance". This board needs to shape up. Just headed to the fate of the old board where no new posters will ever join because of the ridiculous negative vibe that goes on here. Proper way to respond to my comment "Dear Olerud363.354, while Martin did have 1 fWAR in 50 games, which would be 3 in 150 games, I do believe he will never reach that potential. He will be injured. He will regress. He will be forever a dissapointment. It is my hard held belief that the 3 WAR potential of Austin Martin will never be realized"
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Austin Martin and Spencer Horwitz are also both looking good enough to be 7th hitters on a playoff team (or a 2 hitter on Pirates/Twins). I mean we don't know yet how their careers go exactly, both are late bloomers, but showing 2-3 WAR potential. Martin especially was one of the reasons we hated Shatkins, for screwing up the 5th overall pick, but last year Martin kind of played well as a high on base speedy outfielder. If somewhow Berrios and Martin both have 3 WAR next year it will make Shatkins look even better.
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I guess on the other hand it is impossible to know what skills and situations will become important in a playoff series. This World Series, with Bo Bichette not able to run and 2 extra inning games with 3 runners thrown out on the bases (2 at home plate) in those games... is like the baserunning World Series. A different world series maybe there is a bunch of hard plays in the middle infield. Will say would be nice if you don't have to use multiple players for 1 substitution. Like Lukes/Schneider/Straw sequence where 2 players used over 1 out.
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Though arguably Little was needed. Any extra innings game you do need those pitchers. Problem is IKF is an average runner. Like honestly Cavan Biggio would have been better in that role. Or Joey Loperfido. Joey Loperfido has played 50 minor games at second base. And if you don't want to put Loperfido at second put Davis Schneider there. Like maybe a bad idea to put Loperfido at second in the World Series not being there for two years. What I mean is put Loperfido at second a few times in the regular season just in case.
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I went back to look at the exit velocities from the Monday June 9th game. The Jonatan Clase game. Turns out he had the second best exit velocity that game at 108... The 108 wasn't the homer. The homer was 106. I think those may have been his two hardest balls as a Jays though. Nothing super-special for "best EV" or "best distance"... but at a dramatic moment. Sprint speed and arm though rank high. Routes? Apparently not super-great. The 20 homer minor league season is promising. 56 total minor homeruns vs Straw 7. Like Clase has more of a chance for a big swing somewhere.
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What was his sprint speed? Kind of amazing though to do even that being thrown into AA at 30 without having played baseball in 12 years. I kind of feel like 1994 Jordan would have been a good fit for 5th outfielder. Maybe get him some reps at second. 1. Great sprint speed 2. Championship experience 3. Long reach If the 1994 Jordan was on third instead of IKF Jays win world series, good sprint speed, long wing span, athletic ability to do head first dive. =
