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  1. The Philadelphia Eagles are Super Bowl champions. Even if you don’t follow football, you’ve likely heard their rallying cry: “Go Birds!” On the surface, it seems innocuous. An eagle is a bird. It doesn’t take much of a leap to see how they got there. One small problem: the NFL is also home to the Falcons, Seahawks, Ravens, and Cardinals. Sure, the Eagles are champions in part because of their superior roster and coaching, but let’s not underestimate the psychological advantage they gained by claiming the mantel of the one true bird team. Every time the Falcons, Seahawks, Ravens, and Cardinals hear someone shout, “Go Birds,” their ears perk up, and then, crestfallen, they realize that although they’re birds, they’re not the birds. The Blue Jays are well-situated to replicate that enormous competitive advantage and in so doing lay the groundwork for future championships. So let’s look at how they get there. For starters, we need to acknowledge the first hurdle: the phrase “Go Birds” is copyrighted by the Eagles. Although the rallying cry has been in use since 1984, they’ve only had the copyright since 2022. That means we can’t make official Jays merch with the phrase, but it doesn’t mean the fan base can’t take it and run with it. You think those guys selling “One BJ is better than 9 Yanks” shirts out in front of the Dome are officially licensed? Or that there won’t be Etsy shops suddenly filled with associated gear? So we won’t ask for permission. We’ll win a couple World Series and then ask for forgiveness. The Eagles have four other bird teams to contend with, while the Jays get off light, only needing to assert their dominance over the Cardinals and Orioles. The Blue Jays were founded in 1977 and have been around for 48 seasons. That makes them the new kid on the block. The Orioles have been around since 1901 (124 seasons) and the Cardinals even longer (1882, 143 seasons). Those other two teams had a combined 219 years to claim the phrase before the Jays were ever founded and they did nothing! We can call dibs. Is there a championship criterion to consider? The Cardinals have won 11 championships, far outpacing the Orioles’ three and Jays’ two. St. Louis also leads in playoff appearances with 32 compared to Baltimore’s 16 and Toronto’s 10. Of course, if we cut out the head start and only look at 1977 onward, the race gets a lot tighter (STL: 3, TOR: 2, BAL: 1). Returning to the NFL, the Eagles have as many championships as the Ravens and one more than the Seahawks, but they also have the lowest Super Bowl winning percentage of the three, so for this criterion, it’s enough that the Jays are close. Let’s look at the birds themselves. Cardinals have the smallest range of the three birds while Blue Jays and Orioles cover a similar sized area. I’m giving the tiebreak to the Jays here for spending their winters up north while the Orioles migrate south. Where did they get their names? The Blue Jay’s scientific name, Cyanocitta cristata, simply means blue and jay (which is to say, having a prominent crest). Easy, direct, and to the point. Cardinals are named due to their resemblance to the red-clad Cardinals of the Roman Catholic Church. Saving critiques of the Church for another time, I’ll limit myself to saying the having your name tied to a single religious denomination isn’t very inclusive. Moreover, the Arizona Cardinals have already had their chance to be the “Go Birds!” birds, and they lost it. Baltimore Orioles get their name because they resembled the coat of arms belonging to the family of Lord Baltimore and a different species of bird from Eurasia. That coat of arms sports two leopards, a shield, and the golden colour that sparked the recognition. Very convoluted, very classist. Another point to the Jays. Now let’s look at longevity. The oldest recorded Oriole was 12 years old. The oldest Cardinal, 15 years and 9 months. The oldest Blue Jay? 26 years and 11 months!! That’s as old as Bo Bichette! Blue Jays are built to last. It’s clear that in the animal kingdom, the Blue Jay is the dominant bird. We need to leverage that dominance (especially over our Division rival) and bring it to the ballpark. Let your “Go Birds!” calls be heard, and a championship team will emerge.
  2. Spring training is here. Pitchers and catchers reported on February 13 and have already begun working out. The rest of the players will be arriving for full-squad workouts on February 18 (also known as Hope-Vladdy-is-Signed-by-Today Day). This is a light primer to give you some background on some of the new names you'll be hearing over the next six weeks. The Big Names OF Anthony Santander: Signed as a free agent after eight years and 155 home runs in Baltimore. Santander signed a five-year, $92.5-million deal with some deferments and opt-outs/ins. He’ll cover the corner outfield spots and rotate through the DH position as needed. INF Andrés Giménez: Acquired via trade from Cleveland. Giménez is one of the game's great defenders and immediately becomes the everyday second baseman. RHP Jeff Hoffman: Signed as a free agent. Three years and $33 million guaranteed, with a little failed physical drama mixed in. Hoffman is a true lights-out reliever who should be given the first shot at the closer role. RHP Max Scherzer: Signed as a free agent. One year and $15 million. The future Hall of Famer will start as long as he’s able. I also feel compelled to mention that Baseball Reference still projects one save for Scherzer, so keep an eye out for that. RHP Yimi García: Signed as a free agent. Two years and $15 million. If you tuned out at the end of last season, this one might surprise you, but after a deadline trade to Seattle, the Jays have brought Yimi back to the ‘pen. (The prospect he was traded for appears later on.) The Non-Roster Invitees The Pitchers Simon Li has a pretty great breakdown of five of the non-roster invitee pitchers. RHP Braydon Fisher (acquired in the Cavan Biggio trade), RHP Lazaro Estrada (signed to the minors), LHP Mason Fluharty (fifth round pick in 2022), RHP Hayden Juenger (6th round pick in 2021) and RHP Ryan Jennings (fourth round pick in 2022). Of the five, Jennings might have the best shot, but Fluharty’s lefty status can’t be ignored. RHP Andrew Bash: 30th round draft pick by the Angels in 2019, signed as a free agent with the Jays in 2021. Bash pitched 78 innings of AAA ball last year with a 2.97 ERA, 4.00 FIP and a 21.8% K-rate. RHP Adam Kloffenstein: Drafted by the Jays in the third round of the 2018 draft. He was traded to St. Louis for Jordan Hicks in 2023 and is back with the Jays after signing as a free agent. He threw one scoreless inning with the Cardinals in 2024, but spent the final two months of last season out with a shoulder injury. He should be expected to start the year in the minors, but could see a midseason call-up. The Catchers None of these guys projects to see major league time in 2025, but Sosa and Sharp might be names to remember in a few years' time. Phil Clarke: Ninth-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2019. Clarke ran a 137 wRC+ over 29 double-A games in 2024, but struggled in a larger sample size at Triple A. Andres Sosa: Signed as a free agent in 2021, Sosa has struggled to hit over the past few seasons. Jacob Sharp: Acquired from Seattle in the Yimi García trade, Sharp was a 17th-round draft pick out of UNLV in the 2023 draft. He's so far put up passable offensive lines by avoiding strikeouts. Robert Brooks: Signed as a minor league free agent in 2024, Brooks time previously in Tampa Bay’s minor league system. He hit well in 2024, despite some scary strikeout rates. Matt Whatley: Drafted in the third round in 2017 by the Texas Rangers. The 30-year-old spent seven years in the Rangers minor leagues. The Infielders Riley Tirotta: 12th round Blue Jays draft pick in 2021 and made it as high as triple-A Buffalo last season. One to watch. Josh Kasevich: Second-round Jays pick in 2022. Scouting reports typically tout his defense, so eyes will be on his plate appearances to see what he can do there. Charles McAdoo: Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade and the our 10th-ranked prospect. Eddinson Paulino: Acquired from Boston in the Danny Jansen trade and the our 19th-ranked prospect. The Outfielders Alan Roden: Third-round draft pick of the Jays in 2022. Expected to start the season in Buffalo, but could see a late season call up when rosters are expanded. He can hit. RJ Schreck: acquired from Seattle in the Justin Turner trade. Played as high as Double A last year and is expected to spend a couple more seasons developing. Myles Straw: Probably the biggest name (for better or worse) of all the invitees. Acquired from Cleveland in a trade for international bonus pool money that didn’t go to Roki Sasaki. Straw has speed and a Gold Glove, but no bat to speak of. Ssome project him to be on the Jays Opening Day roster… but not me.
  3. A quick look at some of the new and lesser-known faces joining the Jays in spring training. Spring training is here. Pitchers and catchers reported on February 13 and have already begun working out. The rest of the players will be arriving for full-squad workouts on February 18 (also known as Hope-Vladdy-is-Signed-by-Today Day). This is a light primer to give you some background on some of the new names you'll be hearing over the next six weeks. The Big Names OF Anthony Santander: Signed as a free agent after eight years and 155 home runs in Baltimore. Santander signed a five-year, $92.5-million deal with some deferments and opt-outs/ins. He’ll cover the corner outfield spots and rotate through the DH position as needed. INF Andrés Giménez: Acquired via trade from Cleveland. Giménez is one of the game's great defenders and immediately becomes the everyday second baseman. RHP Jeff Hoffman: Signed as a free agent. Three years and $33 million guaranteed, with a little failed physical drama mixed in. Hoffman is a true lights-out reliever who should be given the first shot at the closer role. RHP Max Scherzer: Signed as a free agent. One year and $15 million. The future Hall of Famer will start as long as he’s able. I also feel compelled to mention that Baseball Reference still projects one save for Scherzer, so keep an eye out for that. RHP Yimi García: Signed as a free agent. Two years and $15 million. If you tuned out at the end of last season, this one might surprise you, but after a deadline trade to Seattle, the Jays have brought Yimi back to the ‘pen. (The prospect he was traded for appears later on.) The Non-Roster Invitees The Pitchers Simon Li has a pretty great breakdown of five of the non-roster invitee pitchers. RHP Braydon Fisher (acquired in the Cavan Biggio trade), RHP Lazaro Estrada (signed to the minors), LHP Mason Fluharty (fifth round pick in 2022), RHP Hayden Juenger (6th round pick in 2021) and RHP Ryan Jennings (fourth round pick in 2022). Of the five, Jennings might have the best shot, but Fluharty’s lefty status can’t be ignored. RHP Andrew Bash: 30th round draft pick by the Angels in 2019, signed as a free agent with the Jays in 2021. Bash pitched 78 innings of AAA ball last year with a 2.97 ERA, 4.00 FIP and a 21.8% K-rate. RHP Adam Kloffenstein: Drafted by the Jays in the third round of the 2018 draft. He was traded to St. Louis for Jordan Hicks in 2023 and is back with the Jays after signing as a free agent. He threw one scoreless inning with the Cardinals in 2024, but spent the final two months of last season out with a shoulder injury. He should be expected to start the year in the minors, but could see a midseason call-up. The Catchers None of these guys projects to see major league time in 2025, but Sosa and Sharp might be names to remember in a few years' time. Phil Clarke: Ninth-round draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2019. Clarke ran a 137 wRC+ over 29 double-A games in 2024, but struggled in a larger sample size at Triple A. Andres Sosa: Signed as a free agent in 2021, Sosa has struggled to hit over the past few seasons. Jacob Sharp: Acquired from Seattle in the Yimi García trade, Sharp was a 17th-round draft pick out of UNLV in the 2023 draft. He's so far put up passable offensive lines by avoiding strikeouts. Robert Brooks: Signed as a minor league free agent in 2024, Brooks time previously in Tampa Bay’s minor league system. He hit well in 2024, despite some scary strikeout rates. Matt Whatley: Drafted in the third round in 2017 by the Texas Rangers. The 30-year-old spent seven years in the Rangers minor leagues. The Infielders Riley Tirotta: 12th round Blue Jays draft pick in 2021 and made it as high as triple-A Buffalo last season. One to watch. Josh Kasevich: Second-round Jays pick in 2022. Scouting reports typically tout his defense, so eyes will be on his plate appearances to see what he can do there. Charles McAdoo: Acquired from Pittsburgh in the Isiah Kiner-Falefa trade and the our 10th-ranked prospect. Eddinson Paulino: Acquired from Boston in the Danny Jansen trade and the our 19th-ranked prospect. The Outfielders Alan Roden: Third-round draft pick of the Jays in 2022. Expected to start the season in Buffalo, but could see a late season call up when rosters are expanded. He can hit. RJ Schreck: acquired from Seattle in the Justin Turner trade. Played as high as Double A last year and is expected to spend a couple more seasons developing. Myles Straw: Probably the biggest name (for better or worse) of all the invitees. Acquired from Cleveland in a trade for international bonus pool money that didn’t go to Roki Sasaki. Straw has speed and a Gold Glove, but no bat to speak of. Ssome project him to be on the Jays Opening Day roster… but not me. View full article
  4. Great points! I'm really curious to see how the OF is handled this season. The note around the options is valid. Jimenez is the first call if Bo or Gimenez are going to miss time, but I think they're going to block him from playing time while healthy. He could easily occupy Schneider's bench spot though.
  5. Certainly an option! There was a lot of writing/erasing/rewriting as I thought about that spot. Straw not yet being on the 40-man was ultimately why I left him off here. We'll see what projections 2.0 brings...
  6. The Blue Jays are welcoming some new faces to Toronto this season. What do we think their lineup will look like for game one of 162? Before we get rolling, I’m assuming good health and an unsurprising spring training for the purposes of this exercise. Taking the assumption train one stop further, the Jays open the season against the Baltimore Orioles, and based on their depth charts they’ll have a righty on the mound (probably Zach Eflin), so we’ll be looking at the Jays facing RHP. Lineup and Batting Order 1. George Springer - RF (R): Springer lost his leadoff spot for a 44-game stretch from May to July last season, but he spent the majority of his time as #1 on the call sheet. He may have a shorter leash this year, but he’ll be there to start and he’ll keep it as long as he produces. 2. Bo Bichette - SS (R): 2024 saw Bichette bounce around the order more than we were used to seeing. When healthy in previous seasons, Bichette has had more of a lock on the two-spot in the order. With the cleanup spot more solidified, expect to see Bo regularly hitting second. 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R): Similarly, Guerrero Jr. has been a mainstay at #3. He's moved around some, but has batted third more than anywhere else in the order the last few seasons. 4. Anthony Santander - LF (S): The Blue Jays’ biggest off-season signing has come to Toronto to do two things: crush baseballs and chew gum, and he's all out of gum. I expect Santander to hit cleanup each day that he's in the lineup. He'll get some starts in RF for sure, and rotate through the DH spot, but on day one, he'll be in left. 5. Will Wagner - DH (L): Wagner can hit. There are questions around his power profile and what position he might settle into with the current Jays lineup – how many starts will Vladdy see at third base? – but he makes contact and puts the ball in play. Expect to see him get most opportunities against righties. 6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R): The days of a three-headed catching platoon are well in the rearview now. The spot is Kirk's for as many games as he can handle it. How does 120 sound? If the pop from 2022 can find a way back, he might move up a spot, but he’ll most likely be shuffling deck chairs with the bottom of the order. 7. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L): Another player we'd love to see regain his 2022 form is Giménez. He's here for the glove, but if even a little of that bat can come back around, he'll be great value. 8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R): Maybe I'm getting a little too cute with the lefty/righty balance at the bottom of the order. Clement had games at all nine spots in the order last season with the bulk at six, seven, and eight. If he can get the K/BB ratio to swing towards a little more selectively at the plate he could move up a spot or two. He can also cover shortstop in a pinch if Bo needs a maintenance day. 9. Joey Loperfido - CF (L): Dalton Varsho is expected to miss the start of the season after ending last year with shoulder surgery (stay tuned for timeline updates). Loperfido will get an opportunity to hold on to the spot until Varsho’s return. The Bench Tyler Heineman - C (S): Kirk will need the occasional day off and there isn't another catcher on the current 40-man roster. Heineman has been serviceable, if unremarkable, and has caught most of the Jays current rotation in his time(s) with Toronto. Addison Barger - 3B/LF/RF (L): In addition to the three positions he played last season with the Jays, he also spent some time at shortstop in Buffalo. Expect Barger and Clement to share the bulk of starts at third base and race to see who gets the hot hand first. Steward Berroa - OF (S): Used primarily as a pinch runner last year, Berroa can fill that role again while providing backup coverage in center until Varsho returns. Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R): To say that Babe struggled last season would be a huge understatement. He put up a ‘perfect’ 0.0 bWAR over almost 400 ABs. His splits don’t suggest a platoon would help and the positions he covers have other applicants ready to take the spot. He’s undeniably entering the spring on shaky ground and could easily spend the year in Buffalo, but the 1.8 bWAR he put up in just 35 games in 2023 is recent enough memory that he might get more time to find that form. Starting Rotation 1. José Berríos (RHP): He’s been the Opening Day starter two of the last three seasons and I expect he’ll get that honor again this year. Berríos has also thrown over 170 innings each of the last 3 seasons and he’ll be counted on to continue that workhorse status. 2. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Even after a down 2024, Gausman is projected to have the highest positive impact from the rotation. He challenged for the Cy Young award in 2023 and if he can return to that form, he’ll be the ace the team craves. 3. Chris Bassitt (RHP): Bassitt will be 36 years old on Opening Day and is in the last year of his contract. With the improved bullpen he shouldn’t be needed to pitch deep into games too often. 4. Max Scherzer (RHP): The newly acquired Scherzer will look to close out his Hall of Fame career with an impactful season in Toronto. Hopefully his playoff experience will be something the Jays need this year. 5. Bowden Francis (RHP): After his historic August Francis will get every opportunity to lock up a regular rotation spot. 6. Yariel Rodríguez (RHP): Bowden Francis is the only Jays starter under 30 and last season was the first time he pitched more than 40 innings in the majors. Even if everyone has a healthy year (don’t laugh, it could happen!) Rodríguez is likely to get some starts as the other pitchers require a maintenance day or even a couple weeks of a six-man rotation when the schedule gets particularly cramped. Until then, he’ll be in the long relief role from the ‘pen. Bullpen Jeff Hoffman (RHP): GM Ross Atkins has said that Hoffman “will get the opportunity to close games”, but there isn’t a full indication yet that he will own the ninth inning. Expect him to get the most chances though. Chad Green (RHP): Chad Green put up 17 saves for Toronto last season and will be counted on again to be a reliable arm out of the pen. Hoffman’s addition likely moves Green to the 8th. Yimi García (RHP): Back with the Jays after a 10-game stint in Seattle following last season’s trade. Working off the theory that Hoffman is pushing everyone’s previous roles back an inning García is slated for the 7th and setup role Erik Swanson (RHP): Swanson struggled last season (a common refrain for the bullpen) and spent some time in Buffalo. Expect a positive turnaround and improved results. View full article
  7. Before we get rolling, I’m assuming good health and an unsurprising spring training for the purposes of this exercise. Taking the assumption train one stop further, the Jays open the season against the Baltimore Orioles, and based on their depth charts they’ll have a righty on the mound (probably Zach Eflin), so we’ll be looking at the Jays facing RHP. Lineup and Batting Order 1. George Springer - RF (R): Springer lost his leadoff spot for a 44-game stretch from May to July last season, but he spent the majority of his time as #1 on the call sheet. He may have a shorter leash this year, but he’ll be there to start and he’ll keep it as long as he produces. 2. Bo Bichette - SS (R): 2024 saw Bichette bounce around the order more than we were used to seeing. When healthy in previous seasons, Bichette has had more of a lock on the two-spot in the order. With the cleanup spot more solidified, expect to see Bo regularly hitting second. 3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1B (R): Similarly, Guerrero Jr. has been a mainstay at #3. He's moved around some, but has batted third more than anywhere else in the order the last few seasons. 4. Anthony Santander - LF (S): The Blue Jays’ biggest off-season signing has come to Toronto to do two things: crush baseballs and chew gum, and he's all out of gum. I expect Santander to hit cleanup each day that he's in the lineup. He'll get some starts in RF for sure, and rotate through the DH spot, but on day one, he'll be in left. 5. Will Wagner - DH (L): Wagner can hit. There are questions around his power profile and what position he might settle into with the current Jays lineup – how many starts will Vladdy see at third base? – but he makes contact and puts the ball in play. Expect to see him get most opportunities against righties. 6. Alejandro Kirk - C (R): The days of a three-headed catching platoon are well in the rearview now. The spot is Kirk's for as many games as he can handle it. How does 120 sound? If the pop from 2022 can find a way back, he might move up a spot, but he’ll most likely be shuffling deck chairs with the bottom of the order. 7. Andrés Giménez - 2B (L): Another player we'd love to see regain his 2022 form is Giménez. He's here for the glove, but if even a little of that bat can come back around, he'll be great value. 8. Ernie Clement - 3B (R): Maybe I'm getting a little too cute with the lefty/righty balance at the bottom of the order. Clement had games at all nine spots in the order last season with the bulk at six, seven, and eight. If he can get the K/BB ratio to swing towards a little more selectively at the plate he could move up a spot or two. He can also cover shortstop in a pinch if Bo needs a maintenance day. 9. Joey Loperfido - CF (L): Dalton Varsho is expected to miss the start of the season after ending last year with shoulder surgery (stay tuned for timeline updates). Loperfido will get an opportunity to hold on to the spot until Varsho’s return. The Bench Tyler Heineman - C (S): Kirk will need the occasional day off and there isn't another catcher on the current 40-man roster. Heineman has been serviceable, if unremarkable, and has caught most of the Jays current rotation in his time(s) with Toronto. Addison Barger - 3B/LF/RF (L): In addition to the three positions he played last season with the Jays, he also spent some time at shortstop in Buffalo. Expect Barger and Clement to share the bulk of starts at third base and race to see who gets the hot hand first. Steward Berroa - OF (S): Used primarily as a pinch runner last year, Berroa can fill that role again while providing backup coverage in center until Varsho returns. Davis Schneider - 2B/LF (R): To say that Babe struggled last season would be a huge understatement. He put up a ‘perfect’ 0.0 bWAR over almost 400 ABs. His splits don’t suggest a platoon would help and the positions he covers have other applicants ready to take the spot. He’s undeniably entering the spring on shaky ground and could easily spend the year in Buffalo, but the 1.8 bWAR he put up in just 35 games in 2023 is recent enough memory that he might get more time to find that form. Starting Rotation 1. José Berríos (RHP): He’s been the Opening Day starter two of the last three seasons and I expect he’ll get that honor again this year. Berríos has also thrown over 170 innings each of the last 3 seasons and he’ll be counted on to continue that workhorse status. 2. Kevin Gausman (RHP): Even after a down 2024, Gausman is projected to have the highest positive impact from the rotation. He challenged for the Cy Young award in 2023 and if he can return to that form, he’ll be the ace the team craves. 3. Chris Bassitt (RHP): Bassitt will be 36 years old on Opening Day and is in the last year of his contract. With the improved bullpen he shouldn’t be needed to pitch deep into games too often. 4. Max Scherzer (RHP): The newly acquired Scherzer will look to close out his Hall of Fame career with an impactful season in Toronto. Hopefully his playoff experience will be something the Jays need this year. 5. Bowden Francis (RHP): After his historic August Francis will get every opportunity to lock up a regular rotation spot. 6. Yariel Rodríguez (RHP): Bowden Francis is the only Jays starter under 30 and last season was the first time he pitched more than 40 innings in the majors. Even if everyone has a healthy year (don’t laugh, it could happen!) Rodríguez is likely to get some starts as the other pitchers require a maintenance day or even a couple weeks of a six-man rotation when the schedule gets particularly cramped. Until then, he’ll be in the long relief role from the ‘pen. Bullpen Jeff Hoffman (RHP): GM Ross Atkins has said that Hoffman “will get the opportunity to close games”, but there isn’t a full indication yet that he will own the ninth inning. Expect him to get the most chances though. Chad Green (RHP): Chad Green put up 17 saves for Toronto last season and will be counted on again to be a reliable arm out of the pen. Hoffman’s addition likely moves Green to the 8th. Yimi García (RHP): Back with the Jays after a 10-game stint in Seattle following last season’s trade. Working off the theory that Hoffman is pushing everyone’s previous roles back an inning García is slated for the 7th and setup role Erik Swanson (RHP): Swanson struggled last season (a common refrain for the bullpen) and spent some time in Buffalo. Expect a positive turnaround and improved results.
  8. Max Scherzer enters the 2025 season with 3,407 strikeouts in his storied career. That’s a lot! In fact, only 10 major-league pitchers have ever thrown more. If Scherzer wants to earn entry into the top 10, he’ll need to chase down two targets, one static and one active. Before we get to the guys Scherzer is chasing, let’s take a moment to look at some of the pitchers in his rearview. Last season, he started the season at 12th on the list with 3,367 K’s. With the first strikeout of his second start, he moved beyond Greg Maddux into 11th place. The 10 players behind Scherzer on the strikeout list include seven Hall of Famers, two future Hall of Famers in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and Curt Schilling, who would likely be in the Hall already if not for a history of hateful statements. Pretty elite company. Directly ahead of Scherzer, with a lead of just nine strikeouts, is Justin Verlander, who will pitch for the San Francisco Giants this season. The two players were teammates on the early 2010s Tigers teams that made it to three straight American League Championship Series and one World Series. Although Verlander started his career three years earlier, Scherzer slowly started closing the gap around 10 years ago, then leaped into the lead when Verlander missed the entire 2021 season. It’s been neck and neck ever since. The Giants come to Toronto for a three-game set in July; is a head-to-head matchup too much to hope for? Verlander’s K-rate dropped to 18.7% last season (compared to his 24.5% career mark), while Scherzer’s dipped to 22.6% (compared to a career mark of 29.3%). Assuming those trends continue, we should see Scherzer rack up K’s at a slightly higher rate, allowing him to overtake Verlander at some point. If we switch to strikeouts per nine innings and assume that both pitchers continue at the rates they showed in 2024 – 8.3 K/9 for Scherzer and 7.4 for Verlander – we should see Scherzer overtake Verlander once both pitchers have reached 94 innings pitched. If Scherzer is able to reverse that dip and get closer to his 2023 rates, we could see him catch Verlander as early as 42 innings pitched. We’re talking about pitchers in their 40s, so there are clear concerns around their health and workloads. This part of the race may just come down to who can throw more. Both pitchers are reportedly fully healthy and projections have them throwing between 90-120 innings. This will be an interesting race to follow as the season progresses. Maybe both pitchers overcome Father Time and pitch well and often. That brings us to the static target. Walter Johnson is in the ninth spot on the list, with 3,509 strikeouts (102 ahead of Scherzer). In Scherzer’s 17-year career he has only failed to crack 100 K’s three times: the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, his 2008 rookie year (66 K’s in 56 innings) and his injury-plagued 2024. If he continues the lower strikeout pace he ran in 2024, it would take him 110 innings to reach Johnson. After the Big Train come Gaylord Perry with 3,534 and Don Sutton with 3,574. Scherzer would need to both ramp up his strikeout rate and get back to something like 150 innings for a chance at catching Sutton. However, Johnson should be reachable for both pitchers. The chase will add one more layer of intrigue to a make-or-break season for the Blue Jays.
  9. The newest Toronto Blue Jay sits at 11th on the career strikeouts list. What will it take for him to crack the top 10? Max Scherzer enters the 2025 season with 3,407 strikeouts in his storied career. That’s a lot! In fact, only 10 major-league pitchers have ever thrown more. If Scherzer wants to earn entry into the top 10, he’ll need to chase down two targets, one static and one active. Before we get to the guys Scherzer is chasing, let’s take a moment to look at some of the pitchers in his rearview. Last season, he started the season at 12th on the list with 3,367 K’s. With the first strikeout of his second start, he moved beyond Greg Maddux into 11th place. The 10 players behind Scherzer on the strikeout list include seven Hall of Famers, two future Hall of Famers in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and Curt Schilling, who would likely be in the Hall already if not for a history of hateful statements. Pretty elite company. Directly ahead of Scherzer, with a lead of just nine strikeouts, is Justin Verlander, who will pitch for the San Francisco Giants this season. The two players were teammates on the early 2010s Tigers teams that made it to three straight American League Championship Series and one World Series. Although Verlander started his career three years earlier, Scherzer slowly started closing the gap around 10 years ago, then leaped into the lead when Verlander missed the entire 2021 season. It’s been neck and neck ever since. The Giants come to Toronto for a three-game set in July; is a head-to-head matchup too much to hope for? Verlander’s K-rate dropped to 18.7% last season (compared to his 24.5% career mark), while Scherzer’s dipped to 22.6% (compared to a career mark of 29.3%). Assuming those trends continue, we should see Scherzer rack up K’s at a slightly higher rate, allowing him to overtake Verlander at some point. If we switch to strikeouts per nine innings and assume that both pitchers continue at the rates they showed in 2024 – 8.3 K/9 for Scherzer and 7.4 for Verlander – we should see Scherzer overtake Verlander once both pitchers have reached 94 innings pitched. If Scherzer is able to reverse that dip and get closer to his 2023 rates, we could see him catch Verlander as early as 42 innings pitched. We’re talking about pitchers in their 40s, so there are clear concerns around their health and workloads. This part of the race may just come down to who can throw more. Both pitchers are reportedly fully healthy and projections have them throwing between 90-120 innings. This will be an interesting race to follow as the season progresses. Maybe both pitchers overcome Father Time and pitch well and often. That brings us to the static target. Walter Johnson is in the ninth spot on the list, with 3,509 strikeouts (102 ahead of Scherzer). In Scherzer’s 17-year career he has only failed to crack 100 K’s three times: the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, his 2008 rookie year (66 K’s in 56 innings) and his injury-plagued 2024. If he continues the lower strikeout pace he ran in 2024, it would take him 110 innings to reach Johnson. After the Big Train come Gaylord Perry with 3,534 and Don Sutton with 3,574. Scherzer would need to both ramp up his strikeout rate and get back to something like 150 innings for a chance at catching Sutton. However, Johnson should be reachable for both pitchers. The chase will add one more layer of intrigue to a make-or-break season for the Blue Jays. View full article
  10. Each active players page has a single line for projections (below featured videos and above Standard Pitching), but I'm not sure if they're aggregated anywhere. I just pulled from each players' page.
  11. Where does Max Scherzer slot into the rotation, and what does his arrival mean for the rest of the staff? The Toronto Blue Jays have signed three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, and the preliminary thinking is that he’ll slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation (for as long as he’s able). How does this affect Toronto’s pitching plan? The table below shows how many innings each potential Blue Jays starter threw last season, along with how many they’re projected to throw in 2025 according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Player 2024 FanGraphs B-Ref Kevin Gausman 181 196 169 José Berríos 192.1 194 175 Chris Bassitt 171 179 166 Bowden Francis 103.2 149 92 Max Scherzer 43.1 118 97 Yariel Rodríguez 86.2 106 (58 as SP) 103 Jake Bloss Alek Manoah Adam Macko 36 45 147 Last season, while battling various injuries, Scherzer only managed 43 1/3 innings. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference see him with a healthier total this season. Baseball Reference, interestingly, projects one save for Scherzer, which would be the first of his career. Scherzer averaged 160 innings over the three seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2024, so we’ll stand by for a best-shape-of-his-life spring training updates, but it doesn’t seem at all far-fetched to hope for 100 innings from him this season. Ten different pitchers started games for the Blue Jays in 2024. If healthy (if this feels like a constant caveat, that’s because it is), Scherzer should be a fairly direct replacement for the workload that Yusei Kikuchi shouldered: 22 games started and 115 2/3 innings pitched. Kikuchi’s time was shortened by a late-July trade to Houston. That trade and opening in the rotation is what paved the way for Bowden Francis’s regular spot in the rotation and subsequent historic run in August. Expect Francis to be given every opportunity to hold on to that rotation spot. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt are established and locked into the rotation, so there should be no change with them either. That leaves Yariel Rodríguez as the easy bet for odd man out. Last year, Rodríguez started 21 games, while Francis started 13. I expect those numbers to flip this year, with Rodríguez getting the majority of his early season appearances out of the bullpen. Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet has an interesting look at how pitchers who split time between starting and relieving have fared. The biggest takeaway for me is that the ‘pen skews towards helping power pitchers more. If you throw hard and know you only have to be out there for an inning or two, there shouldn’t be much holding you back from throwing your hardest. Rodríguez relies more on his breaking stuff, which might limit his bullpen bounce but should still offer him a path toward improvement in the shorter appearances. Improved performance from Rodríguez, combined with the addition of Jeff Hoffman and the expected bounce back from the bullpen as a whole should help lift the team over the course of the season. We’ve talked about how many innings Scherzer might take on, but less about what he might do with those innings. The projections are generally optimistic, forecasting Scherzer as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. The Jays will be in great shape if he hits those projections. The flipside is what if he’s healthy, but just isn’t good? Scherzer is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and currently sits eleventh on the all-time strikeout list. Is getting into the top 10 something he might be chasing? Justin Verlander is still active and holds that 10th spot, just seven K’s ahead of Scherzer — that should be an interesting race to track over the season. This is pure speculation on my part, but I think as long as he’s healthy we’re going to see Scherzer every fifth day regardless of the results he generates. View full article
  12. The Toronto Blue Jays have signed three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, and the preliminary thinking is that he’ll slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation (for as long as he’s able). How does this affect Toronto’s pitching plan? The table below shows how many innings each potential Blue Jays starter threw last season, along with how many they’re projected to throw in 2025 according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Player 2024 FanGraphs B-Ref Kevin Gausman 181 196 169 José Berríos 192.1 194 175 Chris Bassitt 171 179 166 Bowden Francis 103.2 149 92 Max Scherzer 43.1 118 97 Yariel Rodríguez 86.2 106 (58 as SP) 103 Jake Bloss Alek Manoah Adam Macko 36 45 147 Last season, while battling various injuries, Scherzer only managed 43 1/3 innings. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference see him with a healthier total this season. Baseball Reference, interestingly, projects one save for Scherzer, which would be the first of his career. Scherzer averaged 160 innings over the three seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2024, so we’ll stand by for a best-shape-of-his-life spring training updates, but it doesn’t seem at all far-fetched to hope for 100 innings from him this season. Ten different pitchers started games for the Blue Jays in 2024. If healthy (if this feels like a constant caveat, that’s because it is), Scherzer should be a fairly direct replacement for the workload that Yusei Kikuchi shouldered: 22 games started and 115 2/3 innings pitched. Kikuchi’s time was shortened by a late-July trade to Houston. That trade and opening in the rotation is what paved the way for Bowden Francis’s regular spot in the rotation and subsequent historic run in August. Expect Francis to be given every opportunity to hold on to that rotation spot. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt are established and locked into the rotation, so there should be no change with them either. That leaves Yariel Rodríguez as the easy bet for odd man out. Last year, Rodríguez started 21 games, while Francis started 13. I expect those numbers to flip this year, with Rodríguez getting the majority of his early season appearances out of the bullpen. Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet has an interesting look at how pitchers who split time between starting and relieving have fared. The biggest takeaway for me is that the ‘pen skews towards helping power pitchers more. If you throw hard and know you only have to be out there for an inning or two, there shouldn’t be much holding you back from throwing your hardest. Rodríguez relies more on his breaking stuff, which might limit his bullpen bounce but should still offer him a path toward improvement in the shorter appearances. Improved performance from Rodríguez, combined with the addition of Jeff Hoffman and the expected bounce back from the bullpen as a whole should help lift the team over the course of the season. We’ve talked about how many innings Scherzer might take on, but less about what he might do with those innings. The projections are generally optimistic, forecasting Scherzer as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. The Jays will be in great shape if he hits those projections. The flipside is what if he’s healthy, but just isn’t good? Scherzer is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and currently sits eleventh on the all-time strikeout list. Is getting into the top 10 something he might be chasing? Justin Verlander is still active and holds that 10th spot, just seven K’s ahead of Scherzer — that should be an interesting race to track over the season. This is pure speculation on my part, but I think as long as he’s healthy we’re going to see Scherzer every fifth day regardless of the results he generates.
  13. Round numbers are aesthetically pleasing (just ask Taijuan Walker). They make convenient markers when we’re grouping players in to tiers. The recent Hall of Fame induction announcements served as a reminder of just how important those milestones can be: Did he have 3,000 hits (Ichiro Suzuki), or 400 saves (Billy Wagner), or 3,000 strikeouts (CC Sabathia)? The Blue Jays roster doesn’t feature any players who are in sight of Hall of Fame milestones (yet), but there’s still plenty to look forward to. During the 2025 season, we’re in line to hit some nice, round numbers. The Ironclad Locks José Berríos - 100 wins (one away) Andrés Giménez - 100 stolen bases (one away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 500 runs (25 away) There’s only one thing that will stop Berríos from reaching 100 wins, and I’m superstitious enough that I’m not even going to risk speaking it into existence here. Toronto opens the season at home against Baltimore and I’m betting he gets it there. Similarly, Giménez should be given the green light to run (just ask Peter Snow and Owen Hill). As with Berríos, I’m betting we see it against Baltimore in the opening series. Even in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Guerrero scored 34 runs. With Anthony Santander hitting behind him, he should be crossing the plate more often than ever. Expect this one to fall early. The Likely to Happen Bo Bichette - 100 home runs (seven away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1,000 hits (95 away) Ernie Clement - 100 RBI (24 away) Bichette’s four home runs last (injury-hampered) season were a career low, but so long as he’s healthy and doesn’t get traded, we should see him hit the 100 mark with ease. The homestand against the Athletics at the end of May is where I would look for this to happen. Over the last four seasons, Vladdy has averaged just over 180 hits per year. According to that pace, we should look for him to hit this mark in the home series against the Yankees following the All-Star break. Unless the Blue Jays sign or trade for someone else to play third, Clement is projected to start half the games this season and knock in at least 30 runs. The Outside Shots Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 200 home runs (40 away) Guerrero has only reached 40 home once in his career, and ever since, the debate about whether he’s capable of recapturing his 2021 form has raged on. Until he signs an extension, this is a contract year, and what a perfect time to have (another) breakout season! The Jays end the regular season at home with a series against the Rays. If it’s going to happen, that’s likely where we’ll see it. The Magical Season of Our Dreams Kevin Gausman - 2,000 strikeouts (235 away) Anthony Santander - 200 home runs (45 away) In 2022, Kevin Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. As Jesse Burrill has written, a fully healthy Gausman could see a return to that dominance. If the splitter that Gausman leaned on to strike out almost a full third of the batters he faced in 2023 is truly back, I’d say that qualifies as magical. Santander hit 44 home runs just last season in a power spike that blew him past his previous high of 33. The Blue Jays are certainly betting that his 2024 production is repeatable. Most projections are more conservative, putting Santander in the mid-30s. If he hits 45 this season, Toronto’s front office will likely call it an expected outcome, but I believe in magic.
  14. The Blue Jays may end up letting you down, but there are plenty of reasons beyond the wins and losses to watch. Round numbers are aesthetically pleasing (just ask Taijuan Walker). They make convenient markers when we’re grouping players in to tiers. The recent Hall of Fame induction announcements served as a reminder of just how important those milestones can be: Did he have 3,000 hits (Ichiro Suzuki), or 400 saves (Billy Wagner), or 3,000 strikeouts (CC Sabathia)? The Blue Jays roster doesn’t feature any players who are in sight of Hall of Fame milestones (yet), but there’s still plenty to look forward to. During the 2025 season, we’re in line to hit some nice, round numbers. The Ironclad Locks José Berríos - 100 wins (one away) Andrés Giménez - 100 stolen bases (one away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 500 runs (25 away) There’s only one thing that will stop Berríos from reaching 100 wins, and I’m superstitious enough that I’m not even going to risk speaking it into existence here. Toronto opens the season at home against Baltimore and I’m betting he gets it there. Similarly, Giménez should be given the green light to run (just ask Peter Snow and Owen Hill). As with Berríos, I’m betting we see it against Baltimore in the opening series. Even in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Guerrero scored 34 runs. With Anthony Santander hitting behind him, he should be crossing the plate more often than ever. Expect this one to fall early. The Likely to Happen Bo Bichette - 100 home runs (seven away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1,000 hits (95 away) Ernie Clement - 100 RBI (24 away) Bichette’s four home runs last (injury-hampered) season were a career low, but so long as he’s healthy and doesn’t get traded, we should see him hit the 100 mark with ease. The homestand against the Athletics at the end of May is where I would look for this to happen. Over the last four seasons, Vladdy has averaged just over 180 hits per year. According to that pace, we should look for him to hit this mark in the home series against the Yankees following the All-Star break. Unless the Blue Jays sign or trade for someone else to play third, Clement is projected to start half the games this season and knock in at least 30 runs. The Outside Shots Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 200 home runs (40 away) Guerrero has only reached 40 home once in his career, and ever since, the debate about whether he’s capable of recapturing his 2021 form has raged on. Until he signs an extension, this is a contract year, and what a perfect time to have (another) breakout season! The Jays end the regular season at home with a series against the Rays. If it’s going to happen, that’s likely where we’ll see it. The Magical Season of Our Dreams Kevin Gausman - 2,000 strikeouts (235 away) Anthony Santander - 200 home runs (45 away) In 2022, Kevin Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. As Jesse Burrill has written, a fully healthy Gausman could see a return to that dominance. If the splitter that Gausman leaned on to strike out almost a full third of the batters he faced in 2023 is truly back, I’d say that qualifies as magical. Santander hit 44 home runs just last season in a power spike that blew him past his previous high of 33. The Blue Jays are certainly betting that his 2024 production is repeatable. Most projections are more conservative, putting Santander in the mid-30s. If he hits 45 this season, Toronto’s front office will likely call it an expected outcome, but I believe in magic. View full article
  15. On Monday, the Blue Jays signed former Orioles slugger Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5-million contract that is not without its risks. Let's dive into some questions about the deal and what it means for Toronto. Up to six years for a 30-year-old defensively challenged outfielder? Let’s tackle the contract length first. It’s a five-year deal, but it could be a three-year deal if Santander opts out (which could then become a six-year deal if the Jays want to void the opt-out). Who knows what the Jays roster might look like in three years? Right now, the only non-arbitration contracts that run beyond 2027 belong to José Berríos and the newly acquired Andrés Giménez. I’m not going to suggest that the Jays don’t care at all about years four, five, and six of this deal, but if they’re a problem, they’re a problem for another day (and maybe even a different front office). That’s how most long-term contracts work anyway: the player provides the bulk of their value up front, so they’re underpaid in the first few years and overpaid in the last few. The important part of this signing is now. Santander immediately makes this team better. He hit 44 home runs last season and is “only” projected to hit 32 to 36 this year. Those 32 homers would have led the Blue Jays. They need his power and they need it this season. Is this the George Springer signing repeating itself? In 2021, George Springer signed a six-year, $150-million deal to come to Toronto in his age-31 season. He put up a combined 6.7 fWAR in his first two seasons, but he has been below replacement level over the past two seasons. Springer and Santander don’t profile as the same type of player, but the contracts, ages and shared position will draw inevitable comparisons. Will Santander’s power decline gradually or are we headed for a cliff? From an impact perspective, again, the important thing is this season. I don’t think the front office is thinking too far out. Let’s also take a moment to appreciate some intangibles. Springer has been a fan favourite since his arrival ,and his signing really signified that the Jays were contenders in a heated AL East. If Santander is Springer 2.0, maybe that’s not such a bad thing. What about Vladdy and Bo? The contract status of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette is going to be the shadow that hangs over every transaction this front office makes until they’re extended, traded, or allowed to walk. Santander will, at the very least, provide some protection in the lineup for Guerrero Jr. If that boosts his trade value or entices him to stay, then that’s just the way it breaks. Both of Toronto’s pending free agents are going to get paid; the when and where are to be determined. What about Bregman and Alonso? Like Merry and Pippin said shortly after setting off an unlawfully acquired firework: “That was good.” “Let’s get another one!” There is still a pair of big name free agents out there, and the Jays still have a hole (or two) in their lineup. Could Toronto go all in and continue to add? Until we find out they’ve signed elsewhere, we can continue to dream. Alex Bregman is at the top of the list. He has the highest projected fWAR of the remaining free agent class at 4.0, and he comes with the highest projected contract. How does $162 million over six years sound for the (soon to be) 31-year-old third basemen? Bregman still grades out well according to the advanced metrics, and he won his first Gold Glove last year (the Jays love adding a Gold Glover). The Jays have also been linked to Pete Alonso. I’m of the opinion that the Jays should make signing the Polar Bear their priority and immediately cross-promote with the Toronto Zoo just based on the nickname! There would be some positional shuffling required. Santander and Springer would have to play every day in the outfield, while Alonso and Guerrero would have to share first and DH, with Guerrero getting the occasional start at third. But if the front office has decided privately that we’re back to digging the long ball, Alonso is the next bat we need.
  16. Beautiful article! I'm starting a petition to MLB to have Stieb's 22 ⅓ innings with CWS wiped from the public record
  17. Yes! He wants $500mill? Okay, pay it. We'll spend the rest of his career trying to replace him if they let him walk.
  18. On Saturday, we gleaned some takeaways from the Blue Jays' Steamer projections. Today we break down the ZiPS projections. Friday was the day we’d been waiting all winter for. No, not a big (or even medium) free agent signing and not an extension announcement for either of our big-name pending free agents. It’s the Blue Jays’ turn to have their 2025 ZiPS projection revealed! ZiPS is the creation of Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It’s a projection model that uses multiyear statistics for each player, compares them to the historical record for similar players, and aims to project what the 2025 season might look like. For a more detailed and informative breakdown in Dan’s own words, go to FanGraphs and read the entire entry. Now, on to the 2025 Blue Jays, Clint Eastwood Style. The Good The newest member of the team, Andrés Giménez, is projected to be very good, with 3.7 WAR, third-best on the team. Known for his glove, ZiPS sees his offense bouncing back to a 105 OPS+ after two down seasons in a row. If he can somehow return to his all-star 2022 levels we’ll look back at these projections and laugh. ZiPS also predicts bounce-back years for Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR) and Alejandro Kirk (3.5). In the case of Bichette, how early is too early to nominate someone for Comeback Player of the Year? Battling injuries in 2024, he was only able to appear in 81, and who knows how healthy he was when he did suit up? A healthy Bichette is arguably the thing the Blue Jays need most this season. Vladmir Guerrero Jr. projects to lead the team’s offense, putting up 3.9 WAR. Not a big surprise there. He also has the widest floor-ceiling range in his projections. So, depending where you think his true ability is, you’ll find an option in his spread. In all, that leaves four of the five infield spots projected for more than 3.0 WAR, which is an awfully strong group. The bullpen is also projected to be improved (how could they get worse?!), putting up 3.2 WAR after a league-worst -2.5 in 2023. While there isn’t a flashy name, even being serviceable will add wins to the team. Kevin Gausman projects to be the top pitcher in the rotation, with a 3.65 ERA and 3.8 WAR. I debated which section to discuss Gausman. He’s projected to be the team ace (good!) and to be improved from last season (good!) but the improvement doesn’t project him returning to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2023 (less good) and his ace status might be more by default than anything else (see the rest of the rotation in the Bad section). His strikeout rate is going to be the thing to watch. Can he increase the whiff-rate on his splitter while giving up some velocity? That seems like a big ask, but Kevin Gausman has been counted out before. Lastly, Alek Manoah’s projected 4.16 ERA (imagine seeing him in the Good section!) and Will Wagner’s projected 110 OPS+ are at the very least, interesting. If either of them can find a way to contribute this season, that would certainly be Good. The Bad I didn’t cover a single outfielder in the Good section. Daulton Varsho should have the inside track on another Gold Glove, and his 2.5 projected WAR is the best in the outfield. Perhaps it’s unfair to have him here. A glove-first centre fielder is a classic archetype, and on a team that generates runs more easily, maybe we could overlook it, but not when combined with George Springer’s projected 1.5 WAR in right field and 2.0 from some combination of Joey Loperfido, David Schneider, and Nathan Lukes in left field. Speaking of multiple players projected to share a position for better or worse. Third base is not projected to be a major source of joy, with another 2.0 WAR projection. Some combination of Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and others should be serviceable, but it looks like a spot where we’ll be hoping someone catches a spark and stays hot. The rotation behind Gausman. José Berríos and Chris Bassitt both project to be fine. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez both project to be a tier below, but also fine. A league-average rotation might be fine elsewhere, but unfortunately we’re not in a league-average division. Designated Hitter is the worst spot, with the Jays projected just for 0.9 WAR. The Blue Jays don’t have a dedicated DH player and given the holes in the lineup it’s something I’d rate as a luxury at the moment. Something to aspire to. The Ugly The ugly is less about any single player’s projection and more about the direction of the team. Earlier. I touted Bo Bichette as a Comeback Player of the Year nominee, and I believe he’ll have a good-to-great season. What I’m less sure of is what team he’ll be playing for during game 162. The Blue Jays are projected to be a middle-of-the-AL-East team and that’s a tough spot to navigate from at the best of times – do you go all-in on a playoff push? Do you build for the future? Without a contract extension for either Bo or Vladdy, the front office has to be exploring trade packages. The rotation doesn’t seem strong enough, the bats need help, and the front office hasn’t been able to entice the top free agents to come to Toronto. For all the talk about team control when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho, he’s a free agent after the 2026 season (along with Gausman and Kirk). For a Few Dollars More I’ll try to end with some optimism. It’s still early January, the days are getting longer, pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 32 days. Maybe between now and then we’ll get one or both of those extension announcements. Maybe we’ll get to see what Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Anthony Santander can do in a Jays uniform. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. These are just projections, after all. That’s why they play the games. View full article
  19. Friday was the day we’d been waiting all winter for. No, not a big (or even medium) free agent signing and not an extension announcement for either of our big-name pending free agents. It’s the Blue Jays’ turn to have their 2025 ZiPS projection revealed! ZiPS is the creation of Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It’s a projection model that uses multiyear statistics for each player, compares them to the historical record for similar players, and aims to project what the 2025 season might look like. For a more detailed and informative breakdown in Dan’s own words, go to FanGraphs and read the entire entry. Now, on to the 2025 Blue Jays, Clint Eastwood Style. The Good The newest member of the team, Andrés Giménez, is projected to be very good, with 3.7 WAR, third-best on the team. Known for his glove, ZiPS sees his offense bouncing back to a 105 OPS+ after two down seasons in a row. If he can somehow return to his all-star 2022 levels we’ll look back at these projections and laugh. ZiPS also predicts bounce-back years for Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR) and Alejandro Kirk (3.5). In the case of Bichette, how early is too early to nominate someone for Comeback Player of the Year? Battling injuries in 2024, he was only able to appear in 81, and who knows how healthy he was when he did suit up? A healthy Bichette is arguably the thing the Blue Jays need most this season. Vladmir Guerrero Jr. projects to lead the team’s offense, putting up 3.9 WAR. Not a big surprise there. He also has the widest floor-ceiling range in his projections. So, depending where you think his true ability is, you’ll find an option in his spread. In all, that leaves four of the five infield spots projected for more than 3.0 WAR, which is an awfully strong group. The bullpen is also projected to be improved (how could they get worse?!), putting up 3.2 WAR after a league-worst -2.5 in 2023. While there isn’t a flashy name, even being serviceable will add wins to the team. Kevin Gausman projects to be the top pitcher in the rotation, with a 3.65 ERA and 3.8 WAR. I debated which section to discuss Gausman. He’s projected to be the team ace (good!) and to be improved from last season (good!) but the improvement doesn’t project him returning to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2023 (less good) and his ace status might be more by default than anything else (see the rest of the rotation in the Bad section). His strikeout rate is going to be the thing to watch. Can he increase the whiff-rate on his splitter while giving up some velocity? That seems like a big ask, but Kevin Gausman has been counted out before. Lastly, Alek Manoah’s projected 4.16 ERA (imagine seeing him in the Good section!) and Will Wagner’s projected 110 OPS+ are at the very least, interesting. If either of them can find a way to contribute this season, that would certainly be Good. The Bad I didn’t cover a single outfielder in the Good section. Daulton Varsho should have the inside track on another Gold Glove, and his 2.5 projected WAR is the best in the outfield. Perhaps it’s unfair to have him here. A glove-first centre fielder is a classic archetype, and on a team that generates runs more easily, maybe we could overlook it, but not when combined with George Springer’s projected 1.5 WAR in right field and 2.0 from some combination of Joey Loperfido, David Schneider, and Nathan Lukes in left field. Speaking of multiple players projected to share a position for better or worse. Third base is not projected to be a major source of joy, with another 2.0 WAR projection. Some combination of Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and others should be serviceable, but it looks like a spot where we’ll be hoping someone catches a spark and stays hot. The rotation behind Gausman. José Berríos and Chris Bassitt both project to be fine. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez both project to be a tier below, but also fine. A league-average rotation might be fine elsewhere, but unfortunately we’re not in a league-average division. Designated Hitter is the worst spot, with the Jays projected just for 0.9 WAR. The Blue Jays don’t have a dedicated DH player and given the holes in the lineup it’s something I’d rate as a luxury at the moment. Something to aspire to. The Ugly The ugly is less about any single player’s projection and more about the direction of the team. Earlier. I touted Bo Bichette as a Comeback Player of the Year nominee, and I believe he’ll have a good-to-great season. What I’m less sure of is what team he’ll be playing for during game 162. The Blue Jays are projected to be a middle-of-the-AL-East team and that’s a tough spot to navigate from at the best of times – do you go all-in on a playoff push? Do you build for the future? Without a contract extension for either Bo or Vladdy, the front office has to be exploring trade packages. The rotation doesn’t seem strong enough, the bats need help, and the front office hasn’t been able to entice the top free agents to come to Toronto. For all the talk about team control when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho, he’s a free agent after the 2026 season (along with Gausman and Kirk). For a Few Dollars More I’ll try to end with some optimism. It’s still early January, the days are getting longer, pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 32 days. Maybe between now and then we’ll get one or both of those extension announcements. Maybe we’ll get to see what Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Anthony Santander can do in a Jays uniform. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. These are just projections, after all. That’s why they play the games.
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