Mike LeSage

Love an Old Hoss Radbourn shoutout!

The newest Toronto Blue Jay sits at 11th on the career strikeouts list. What will it take for him to crack the top 10? Max Scherzer enters the 2025 season with 3,407 strikeouts in his storied career. That’s a lot! In fact, only 10 major-league pitchers have ever thrown more. If Scherzer wants to earn entry into the top 10, he’ll need to chase down two targets, one static and one active. Before we get to the guys Scherzer is chasing, let’s take a moment to look at some of the pitchers in his rearview. Last season, he started the season at 12th on the list with 3,367 K’s. With the first strikeout of his second start, he moved beyond Greg Maddux into 11th place. The 10 players behind Scherzer on the strikeout list include seven Hall of Famers, two future Hall of Famers in Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and Curt Schilling, who would likely be in the Hall already if not for a history of hateful statements. Pretty elite company. Directly ahead of Scherzer, with a lead of just nine strikeouts, is Justin Verlander, who will pitch for the San Francisco Giants this season. The two players were teammates on the early 2010s Tigers teams that made it to three straight American League Championship Series and one World Series. Although Verlander started his career three years earlier, Scherzer slowly started closing the gap around 10 years ago, then leaped into the lead when Verlander missed the entire 2021 season. It’s been neck and neck ever since. The Giants come to Toronto for a three-game set in July; is a head-to-head matchup too much to hope for? Verlander’s K-rate dropped to 18.7% last season (compared to his 24.5% career mark), while Scherzer’s dipped to 22.6% (compared to a career mark of 29.3%). Assuming those trends continue, we should see Scherzer rack up K’s at a slightly higher rate, allowing him to overtake Verlander at some point. If we switch to strikeouts per nine innings and assume that both pitchers continue at the rates they showed in 2024 – 8.3 K/9 for Scherzer and 7.4 for Verlander – we should see Scherzer overtake Verlander once both pitchers have reached 94 innings pitched. If Scherzer is able to reverse that dip and get closer to his 2023 rates, we could see him catch Verlander as early as 42 innings pitched. We’re talking about pitchers in their 40s, so there are clear concerns around their health and workloads. This part of the race may just come down to who can throw more. Both pitchers are reportedly fully healthy and projections have them throwing between 90-120 innings. This will be an interesting race to follow as the season progresses. Maybe both pitchers overcome Father Time and pitch well and often. That brings us to the static target. Walter Johnson is in the ninth spot on the list, with 3,509 strikeouts (102 ahead of Scherzer). In Scherzer’s 17-year career he has only failed to crack 100 K’s three times: the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, his 2008 rookie year (66 K’s in 56 innings) and his injury-plagued 2024. If he continues the lower strikeout pace he ran in 2024, it would take him 110 innings to reach Johnson. After the Big Train come Gaylord Perry with 3,534 and Don Sutton with 3,574. Scherzer would need to both ramp up his strikeout rate and get back to something like 150 innings for a chance at catching Sutton. However, Johnson should be reachable for both pitchers. The chase will add one more layer of intrigue to a make-or-break season for the Blue Jays. View full article

Each active players page has a single line for projections (below featured videos and above Standard Pitching), but I'm not sure if they're aggregated anywhere. I just pulled from each players' page.

Where does Max Scherzer slot into the rotation, and what does his arrival mean for the rest of the staff? The Toronto Blue Jays have signed three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, and the preliminary thinking is that he’ll slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation (for as long as he’s able). How does this affect Toronto’s pitching plan? The table below shows how many innings each potential Blue Jays starter threw last season, along with how many they’re projected to throw in 2025 according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. Player 2024 FanGraphs B-Ref Kevin Gausman 181 196 169 José Berríos 192.1 194 175 Chris Bassitt 171 179 166 Bowden Francis 103.2 149 92 Max Scherzer 43.1 118 97 Yariel Rodríguez 86.2 106 (58 as SP) 103 Jake Bloss Alek Manoah Adam Macko 36 45 147 Last season, while battling various injuries, Scherzer only managed 43 1/3 innings. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference see him with a healthier total this season. Baseball Reference, interestingly, projects one save for Scherzer, which would be the first of his career. Scherzer averaged 160 innings over the three seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2024, so we’ll stand by for a best-shape-of-his-life spring training updates, but it doesn’t seem at all far-fetched to hope for 100 innings from him this season. Ten different pitchers started games for the Blue Jays in 2024. If healthy (if this feels like a constant caveat, that’s because it is), Scherzer should be a fairly direct replacement for the workload that Yusei Kikuchi shouldered: 22 games started and 115 2/3 innings pitched. Kikuchi’s time was shortened by a late-July trade to Houston. That trade and opening in the rotation is what paved the way for Bowden Francis’s regular spot in the rotation and subsequent historic run in August. Expect Francis to be given every opportunity to hold on to that rotation spot. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt are established and locked into the rotation, so there should be no change with them either. That leaves Yariel Rodríguez as the easy bet for odd man out. Last year, Rodríguez started 21 games, while Francis started 13. I expect those numbers to flip this year, with Rodríguez getting the majority of his early season appearances out of the bullpen. Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet has an interesting look at how pitchers who split time between starting and relieving have fared. The biggest takeaway for me is that the ‘pen skews towards helping power pitchers more. If you throw hard and know you only have to be out there for an inning or two, there shouldn’t be much holding you back from throwing your hardest. Rodríguez relies more on his breaking stuff, which might limit his bullpen bounce but should still offer him a path toward improvement in the shorter appearances. Improved performance from Rodríguez, combined with the addition of Jeff Hoffman and the expected bounce back from the bullpen as a whole should help lift the team over the course of the season. We’ve talked about how many innings Scherzer might take on, but less about what he might do with those innings. The projections are generally optimistic, forecasting Scherzer as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. The Jays will be in great shape if he hits those projections. The flipside is what if he’s healthy, but just isn’t good? Scherzer is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and currently sits eleventh on the all-time strikeout list. Is getting into the top 10 something he might be chasing? Justin Verlander is still active and holds that 10th spot, just seven K’s ahead of Scherzer — that should be an interesting race to track over the season. This is pure speculation on my part, but I think as long as he’s healthy we’re going to see Scherzer every fifth day regardless of the results he generates. View full article

Great ones! Let's hope all but Bassitt hit those marks!

The Blue Jays may end up letting you down, but there are plenty of reasons beyond the wins and losses to watch. Round numbers are aesthetically pleasing (just ask Taijuan Walker). They make convenient markers when we’re grouping players in to tiers. The recent Hall of Fame induction announcements served as a reminder of just how important those milestones can be: Did he have 3,000 hits (Ichiro Suzuki), or 400 saves (Billy Wagner), or 3,000 strikeouts (CC Sabathia)? The Blue Jays roster doesn’t feature any players who are in sight of Hall of Fame milestones (yet), but there’s still plenty to look forward to. During the 2025 season, we’re in line to hit some nice, round numbers. The Ironclad Locks José Berríos - 100 wins (one away) Andrés Giménez - 100 stolen bases (one away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 500 runs (25 away) There’s only one thing that will stop Berríos from reaching 100 wins, and I’m superstitious enough that I’m not even going to risk speaking it into existence here. Toronto opens the season at home against Baltimore and I’m betting he gets it there. Similarly, Giménez should be given the green light to run (just ask Peter Snow and Owen Hill). As with Berríos, I’m betting we see it against Baltimore in the opening series. Even in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Guerrero scored 34 runs. With Anthony Santander hitting behind him, he should be crossing the plate more often than ever. Expect this one to fall early. The Likely to Happen Bo Bichette - 100 home runs (seven away) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 1,000 hits (95 away) Ernie Clement - 100 RBI (24 away) Bichette’s four home runs last (injury-hampered) season were a career low, but so long as he’s healthy and doesn’t get traded, we should see him hit the 100 mark with ease. The homestand against the Athletics at the end of May is where I would look for this to happen. Over the last four seasons, Vladdy has averaged just over 180 hits per year. According to that pace, we should look for him to hit this mark in the home series against the Yankees following the All-Star break. Unless the Blue Jays sign or trade for someone else to play third, Clement is projected to start half the games this season and knock in at least 30 runs. The Outside Shots Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 200 home runs (40 away) Guerrero has only reached 40 home once in his career, and ever since, the debate about whether he’s capable of recapturing his 2021 form has raged on. Until he signs an extension, this is a contract year, and what a perfect time to have (another) breakout season! The Jays end the regular season at home with a series against the Rays. If it’s going to happen, that’s likely where we’ll see it. The Magical Season of Our Dreams Kevin Gausman - 2,000 strikeouts (235 away) Anthony Santander - 200 home runs (45 away) In 2022, Kevin Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. As Jesse Burrill has written, a fully healthy Gausman could see a return to that dominance. If the splitter that Gausman leaned on to strike out almost a full third of the batters he faced in 2023 is truly back, I’d say that qualifies as magical. Santander hit 44 home runs just last season in a power spike that blew him past his previous high of 33. The Blue Jays are certainly betting that his 2024 production is repeatable. Most projections are more conservative, putting Santander in the mid-30s. If he hits 45 this season, Toronto’s front office will likely call it an expected outcome, but I believe in magic. View full article

Beautiful article! I'm starting a petition to MLB to have Stieb's 22 ⅓ innings with CWS wiped from the public record

Yes! He wants $500mill? Okay, pay it. We'll spend the rest of his career trying to replace him if they let him walk.

On Saturday, we gleaned some takeaways from the Blue Jays' Steamer projections. Today we break down the ZiPS projections. Friday was the day we’d been waiting all winter for. No, not a big (or even medium) free agent signing and not an extension announcement for either of our big-name pending free agents. It’s the Blue Jays’ turn to have their 2025 ZiPS projection revealed! ZiPS is the creation of Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. It’s a projection model that uses multiyear statistics for each player, compares them to the historical record for similar players, and aims to project what the 2025 season might look like. For a more detailed and informative breakdown in Dan’s own words, go to FanGraphs and read the entire entry. Now, on to the 2025 Blue Jays, Clint Eastwood Style. The Good The newest member of the team, Andrés Giménez, is projected to be very good, with 3.7 WAR, third-best on the team. Known for his glove, ZiPS sees his offense bouncing back to a 105 OPS+ after two down seasons in a row. If he can somehow return to his all-star 2022 levels we’ll look back at these projections and laugh. ZiPS also predicts bounce-back years for Bo Bichette (3.3 WAR) and Alejandro Kirk (3.5). In the case of Bichette, how early is too early to nominate someone for Comeback Player of the Year? Battling injuries in 2024, he was only able to appear in 81, and who knows how healthy he was when he did suit up? A healthy Bichette is arguably the thing the Blue Jays need most this season. Vladmir Guerrero Jr. projects to lead the team’s offense, putting up 3.9 WAR. Not a big surprise there. He also has the widest floor-ceiling range in his projections. So, depending where you think his true ability is, you’ll find an option in his spread. In all, that leaves four of the five infield spots projected for more than 3.0 WAR, which is an awfully strong group. The bullpen is also projected to be improved (how could they get worse?!), putting up 3.2 WAR after a league-worst -2.5 in 2023. While there isn’t a flashy name, even being serviceable will add wins to the team. Kevin Gausman projects to be the top pitcher in the rotation, with a 3.65 ERA and 3.8 WAR. I debated which section to discuss Gausman. He’s projected to be the team ace (good!) and to be improved from last season (good!) but the improvement doesn’t project him returning to the levels we saw in 2022 and 2023 (less good) and his ace status might be more by default than anything else (see the rest of the rotation in the Bad section). His strikeout rate is going to be the thing to watch. Can he increase the whiff-rate on his splitter while giving up some velocity? That seems like a big ask, but Kevin Gausman has been counted out before. Lastly, Alek Manoah’s projected 4.16 ERA (imagine seeing him in the Good section!) and Will Wagner’s projected 110 OPS+ are at the very least, interesting. If either of them can find a way to contribute this season, that would certainly be Good. The Bad I didn’t cover a single outfielder in the Good section. Daulton Varsho should have the inside track on another Gold Glove, and his 2.5 projected WAR is the best in the outfield. Perhaps it’s unfair to have him here. A glove-first centre fielder is a classic archetype, and on a team that generates runs more easily, maybe we could overlook it, but not when combined with George Springer’s projected 1.5 WAR in right field and 2.0 from some combination of Joey Loperfido, David Schneider, and Nathan Lukes in left field. Speaking of multiple players projected to share a position for better or worse. Third base is not projected to be a major source of joy, with another 2.0 WAR projection. Some combination of Ernie Clement, Addison Barger, and others should be serviceable, but it looks like a spot where we’ll be hoping someone catches a spark and stays hot. The rotation behind Gausman. José Berríos and Chris Bassitt both project to be fine. Bowden Francis and Yariel Rodriguez both project to be a tier below, but also fine. A league-average rotation might be fine elsewhere, but unfortunately we’re not in a league-average division. Designated Hitter is the worst spot, with the Jays projected just for 0.9 WAR. The Blue Jays don’t have a dedicated DH player and given the holes in the lineup it’s something I’d rate as a luxury at the moment. Something to aspire to. The Ugly The ugly is less about any single player’s projection and more about the direction of the team. Earlier. I touted Bo Bichette as a Comeback Player of the Year nominee, and I believe he’ll have a good-to-great season. What I’m less sure of is what team he’ll be playing for during game 162. The Blue Jays are projected to be a middle-of-the-AL-East team and that’s a tough spot to navigate from at the best of times – do you go all-in on a playoff push? Do you build for the future? Without a contract extension for either Bo or Vladdy, the front office has to be exploring trade packages. The rotation doesn’t seem strong enough, the bats need help, and the front office hasn’t been able to entice the top free agents to come to Toronto. For all the talk about team control when the Blue Jays acquired Varsho, he’s a free agent after the 2026 season (along with Gausman and Kirk). For a Few Dollars More I’ll try to end with some optimism. It’s still early January, the days are getting longer, pitchers and catchers don’t report for another 32 days. Maybe between now and then we’ll get one or both of those extension announcements. Maybe we’ll get to see what Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, or Anthony Santander can do in a Jays uniform. It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. These are just projections, after all. That’s why they play the games. View full article