How Does Adding Max Scherzer Change the Blue Jays Rotation?

The Toronto Blue Jays have signed three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, and the preliminary thinking is that he’ll slot in as the fourth or fifth starter in the rotation (for as long as he’s able). How does this affect Toronto’s pitching plan? The table below shows how many innings each potential Blue Jays starter threw last season, along with how many they’re projected to throw in 2025 according to both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Last season, while battling various injuries, Scherzer only managed 43 1/3 innings. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference see him with a healthier total this season. Baseball Reference, interestingly, projects one save for Scherzer, which would be the first of his career. Scherzer averaged 160 innings over the three seasons prior to his injury-plagued 2024, so we’ll stand by for a best-shape-of-his-life spring training updates, but it doesn’t seem at all far-fetched to hope for 100 innings from him this season.

Ten different pitchers started games for the Blue Jays in 2024. If healthy (if this feels like a constant caveat, that’s because it is), Scherzer should be a fairly direct replacement for the workload that Yusei Kikuchi shouldered: 22 games started and 115 2/3 innings pitched. Kikuchi’s time was shortened by a late-July trade to Houston. That trade and opening in the rotation is what paved the way for Bowden Francis’s regular spot in the rotation and subsequent historic run in August. Expect Francis to be given every opportunity to hold on to that rotation spot. Gausman, Berríos and Bassitt are established and locked into the rotation, so there should be no change with them either. That leaves Yariel Rodríguez as the easy bet for odd man out.

Last year, Rodríguez started 21 games, while Francis started 13. I expect those numbers to flip this year, with Rodríguez getting the majority of his early season appearances out of the bullpen. Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet has an interesting look at how pitchers who split time between starting and relieving have fared. The biggest takeaway for me is that the ‘pen skews towards helping power pitchers more. If you throw hard and know you only have to be out there for an inning or two, there shouldn’t be much holding you back from throwing your hardest. Rodríguez relies more on his breaking stuff, which might limit his bullpen bounce but should still offer him a path toward improvement in the shorter appearances. Improved performance from Rodríguez, combined with the addition of Jeff Hoffman and the expected bounce back from the bullpen as a whole should help lift the team over the course of the season.

We’ve talked about how many innings Scherzer might take on, but less about what he might do with those innings. The projections are generally optimistic, forecasting Scherzer as a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. The Jays will be in great shape if he hits those projections. The flipside is what if he’s healthy, but just isn’t good? Scherzer is a no-doubt Hall of Famer and currently sits eleventh on the all-time strikeout list. Is getting into the top 10 something he might be chasing? Justin Verlander is still active and holds that 10th spot, just seven K’s ahead of Scherzer — that should be an interesting race to track over the season. This is pure speculation on my part, but I think as long as he’s healthy we’re going to see Scherzer every fifth day regardless of the results he generates.