Jesse Burrill

The Blue Jays expected Alejandro Kirk's return to solve a problem. Instead, it may have created a new one. When the season began, Kirk was on the short list of Blue Jays players the team couldn't afford to lose. He’s a middle-of-the-order bat, a leader in the clubhouse, and one of the best defenders in all of baseball. From 2023 through 2025, only Patrick Bailey had a higher Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) than Kirk. All it took was seven games. Kirk took a foul ball off his thumb, suffering a fracture that sent him to the injured list for the next two months. Because of the injury, the Blue Jays found themselves in a difficult spot. Tyler Heineman was expected to handle most of the catching duties, while Brandon Valenzuela, a rookie who had impressed throughout spring training, was called up to fill the void. The transition to the major leagues is difficult for any prospect, but the challenge is even greater for catchers, who must not only adjust to big league pitching at the plate but also learn how to manage an entirely new pitching staff behind it. Valenzuela was more than ready for the task. Since his debut, Valenzuela has posted a 121 wRC+. His seven home runs are tied for second on the team, and his .792 OPS leads the Blue Jays (as of June 17). Defensively, Valenzuela has been just as impressive. His Defensive Runs Above Average trails only Andrés Giménez on the Blue Jays and ranks among the top five catchers in baseball dating back to Kirk's injury. Baseball Savant loves his glove too. His 4.89-second average pop time is in the 82nd percentile in baseball, he’s in the 90th percentile in caught stealing above average, and his framing has been incredible. Only Dillon Dingler and Adley Rutschman have more catcher framing runs than Valenzuela. Valenzuela's emergence has been noticed by the organization, as when Kirk returned from the injured list, the Blue Jays chose to keep him on the roster, despite his having minor league options, even if it meant the risk of losing Heineman (who is a good defensive catcher in his own right) to waivers or free agency. As a team that values depth and roster control, it wouldn’t have been a shock if they chose to send Valenzuela down instead. The challenge for the Blue Jays wasn't determining whether Valenzuela had played well enough to remain on the roster; he clearly had. The challenge is figuring out what comes next. The simple solution would be to just insert Kirk back into the starting role and have Valenzuela take up the traditional backup catcher job, playing once every four or five days or when Kirk needs a break. The problem with that is that Valenzuela has been too good offensively to take out of the lineup right now: (image from https://thatsball.baby/jays) For a Blue Jays team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA, and home runs, it's hard to justify giving one of the best hitters on the team less playing time and expecting the results to get better. There is another factor to consider. For as well as Valenzuela has played so far, he’s still a prospect who needs time to develop at the major league level. Catchers develop differently from other prospects, and the Blue Jays want to be confident that the Kirk-Valenzuela tandem will be their catching tandem of the future. Valenzuela losing reps behind the plate will only slow the evaluation process. With all that said, Kirk remains one of the most important players on the roster. While Valenzuela is still building relationships with Toronto’s pitching staff, Kirk has already established himself as one of the game’s premier defensive catchers. For a team trying to win games now, that familiarity and stability behind the plate carries significant value. As impressive as Valenzuela has been, the Blue Jays still need Kirk in the lineup as often as possible. Finding playing time for both catchers won't be easy. With Heineman now traded to the Angels, the Blue Jays are operating with only two catchers, making lineup flexibility more important than ever. Most teams prefer not to start both catchers on the same day because it limits late-game options and increases the risk of running out of depth if an injury occurs. That reality means Kirk and Valenzuela won't be in the batting order together every day. Still, with the Blue Jays desperately searching for offence, there will be plenty of situations in which John Schneider will be tempted to find a way to fit both bats into the same lineup. The easiest way to get both players into the lineup is to have Valenzuela or Kirk play another position. Recently, John Schneider mentioned that George Springer could see the occasional start in right field, opening the designated hitter spot for one of the two catchers. Valenzuela could also factor in at first base after appearing there 68 times in the minor leagues; he has recently begun taking practice reps at the position again. The good news in all of this is that it is essentially a good problem for the Blue Jays to have. They have too many talented players for not enough lineup spots, so John Schneider can get creative with how he uses his two catchers. Prioritizing Valenzuela doesn’t mean Kirk will see less playing time. Heineman still found his way into 31 games before he was designated for assignment. Taking into account that Valenzuela is a switch-hitter, getting him into the lineup against a tough right-handed pitcher will give the Blue Jays a platoon advantage. In baseball, these things tend to have a way of sorting themselves out. Remember, the Blue Jays were supposed to have too many pitchers for not enough spots, and that hasn’t turned out to be true either. Catchers tend to take on a tremendous amount of wear and tear over the course of the season, so having depth at the position is still incredibly important. But as long as the Blue Jays continue to search for more offence, they’ll need to find ways to get their best hitters into the lineup more often. For the time being, that includes both Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela. The challenge for John Schneider is no longer deciding whether Valenzuela belongs in the major leagues. He has already answered that question. The challenge now is finding enough opportunities for one of the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters to stay on the field. Stats updated prior to games on June 18. View full article

Stats updated prior to the Blue Jays' game on Wednesday, June 10. Ernie Clement is doing something that baseball history says shouldn't be possible. The Blue Jays infielder is among Major League Baseball’s hit leaders despite chasing pitches at a rate that would normally prevent a hitter from reaching the top of the leaderboard. Most hitters in today’s game strive to maximize their power: swinging harder, optimizing their launch angles, and focusing on doing damage at the plate. For some players, that plan works well. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have had great careers doing just that. But one of the great things about baseball is that there is more than one way to be productive. Regardless of the situation, Clement has a knack for getting the bat on the ball. So far in the 2026 season, he has continued to do exactly that. Just take a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hits, and there is Ernie, right near the top: What’s incredibly unique about Clement is that he’s doing it in a way that very few hitters have ever managed successfully. He swings more often than anyone on the Blue Jays and makes more contact than most of his teammates. He doesn’t swing the bat that hard (67.6 mph average bat speed), which results in a low average exit velocity. He doesn’t walk, but he also doesn't strike out; somehow, he just keeps getting hits, and while a .317 BABIP tells some of the story, it's not the whole picture. Jays fans who have watched Ernie play know full well that he swings at almost anything he can reach, so even when a pitcher paints a pitch outside of the zone, he is still able to hit it. It's a skill that very few hitters in baseball possess. These are the 2026 hit leaders on pitches outside of the zone, per Baseball Savant: T-1: Ernie Clement - 27 T-1: Alec Burleson - 27 T-3: Otto Lopez - 24 T-3: Shohei Ohtani - 24 5: Jonathan Aranda - 23 The fact that Clement is near the top of the hits leaderboard isn’t unusual by itself. Every season, someone leads baseball in hits. What's unusual is how he’s getting there. The hitters who typically occupy the top of the leaderboard are disciplined hitters who limit chase and maximize quality contact. Clement is attempting to do it while chasing pitches at a rate rarely seen among baseball’s elite hit collectors. Looking back at every MLB hits leader over the last 12 seasons and comparing them to their chase rates reveals just how unusual his season has been: Ernie Clement's 2026 chase rate entering play on June 9. What Ernie Clement is doing is statistically unheard of in the Statcast era, and history suggests it's unlikely he’ll ultimately finish with the most hits in baseball while chasing this often. Yet, Clement has one skill that allows him to get away with it. When he swings, he simply does not miss. Clement owns a contact rate of 85.7%, which has him in the top 20 in MLB. While most hitters who chase pitches out of the zone rack up strikeouts, Clement consistently finds a way to get the bat on the baseball. The only reason Ernie gets away with it is how often he takes those out-of-zone pitches he swings at and puts them in play, doing so 44.3% of the time. This is where Clement’s path to accumulating hits begins to emerge. Because he rarely draws walks (3.0% BB rate) and strikes out infrequently (10.0% K rate), 87.0% of his plate appearances end with a ball in play. It's a number that ranks second among qualified hitters, behind only Luis Arraez. (You can find the full leaderboard here, updated before games on June 9.) From there its how many of those batted balls turn into hits. And that's where BABIP comes into the picture. On the season, Clement owns a .320 BABIP, meaning that 32% of balls he puts into the field of play have resulted in hits. It also helps that he's on pace for a career-high 17 home runs; home runs aren't included in the calculation of BABIP. High BABIPs are typically driven by elite speed, hard contact, line drives, or an all-fields approach. Ernie doesn’t necessarily excel in any of these categories. His sprint speed sits at 27.9 ft/sec, 66th percentile in the league. His 19.8% line drive rate (per FanGraphs) sits almost exactly at league average. His average exit velocity sits in the bottom sixth percentile in baseball, and if you take a look at his hit chart, it's fairly safe to say that an all-fields approach isn't behind this either. via Baseball Savant If Clement isn’t generating hits through elite speed or elite power, then the question becomes, what is driving his success? The secret lies in his hand-eye coordination. Baseball Savant measures this through a statistic called squared-up rate. In simple terms, it measures how much exit velocity a hitter generates relative to the maximum possible exit velocity, based on their bat speed and the speed of the pitch. On squared-up baseballs this season, hitters have produced a .380 batting average and a .678 slugging percentage. Clement has squared up the ball 35.2% of the time, placing him in the top six percent of all major league hitters. That doesn't tell the whole story, though. Clement seems to have a knack for hitting the baseball where the defenders aren't; this is evident in the difference between his xBA and his actual BA. His xBA, which calculates how likely a player is to get a hit based on launch angle and exit velocity, sits at .258. The 46-point difference between his .258 xBA and his .304 actual batting average suggests Clement has benefited from some favourable results, but it also raises the question of whether traditional models fully capture his unusual contact profile. Leading baseball in hits is often as much about availability as it is talent. The game’s hit leaders don’t just hit well; they’re also in the lineup every day. Ernie has played in 67 of the Blue Jays' 68 games so far. Given the defensive value he provides and his ability to play anywhere in the infield, playing time is unlikely to be a concern, barring injury. History suggests Clement’s approach shouldn’t work this well. Hit leaders typically don't chase this many pitches, and players with his batted ball profile rarely sustain this kind of production. Yet here he is, sitting among baseball’s hit leaders anyway. Whether Ernie Clement ultimately finishes as baseball's hit king is almost beside the point. What makes his season remarkable is that he’s forcing us to reconsider what a modern hitter can look like. If he keeps doing that, his first All-Star appearance may not be far behind. View full article

It's been a rollercoaster of a ride for the Blue Jays through two months of the regular season. The team has battled injuries and inconsistent production, and its lineup has struggled to score runs regularly. The one standout through all the injuries has been the pitching staff. In May, the Blue Jays' 3.45 ERA ranked fourth in the AL. Their 14.5% K-BB% also ranked fourth, and by the Stuff+ numbers on FanGraphs, the staff ranked third, just behind the Mariners and Rays. Not bad for a team that currently has seven starting pitchers on the IL. Add recent injuries to Joe Mantiply and Tommy Nance to pair with Yimi García’s extended absence, and the Blue Jays are down three prominent relievers as well. In this piece, we’re going to take a look at some of the pitchers that have stood out to make the Blue Jays' staff stand strong as they head into the summer months of the season. Honourable Mention: Mason Fluharty May Stats: 11.0 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 14 K, 2 BB, 0.82 ERA, 0.909 WHIP Mason Fluharty has overcome a rocky start and was one of the team's more dominant relievers in May. Not only is he now the undisputed number one left-handed option in the bullpen, but he’s also been one of the best in all of baseball. Coming into the finale against the Orioles (in which he struck out all three batters he faced), Fluharty’s FIP ranked third among left-handed pitchers during May (min. 10 IP). His 31 appearances on the season have him atop the MLB leaderboard, and his workload will be worth monitoring. But for now, Fluharty has been excellent, has clearly earned his manager's trust, and has established himself as a key member of this bullpen. Honourable Mention: Kevin Gausman May Stats: 28.2 IP, 32 H, 10 ER, 26 K, 4 BB, 3.18 ERA, 1.27 WHIP Out of all the pitchers that have dealt with injuries this season, it's somewhat surprising that the pitcher who threw the most pitches and faced the most batters in 2025 isn't one of them. Kevin Gausman’s month as a whole was quietly effective, but his durability and ability to pitch quality innings don’t go unnoticed. His strikeout totals have dipped from his career norms, but he consistently attacked the strike zone this month, leading all Blue Jays pitchers (min. 10 IP) in walk rate (3.7%) and leading all Blue Jays starters in chase rate (38.4%), accumulating 1.0 fWAR in the process. Gausman just quietly keeps getting it done. Honourable Mention: Dylan Cease May Stats: 30.2IP, 23 H, 11 ER, 43 K, 9 BB, 3.23 ERA, 1.04 WHIP Dylan Cease has been the best Blue Jays starter this season, and he was well on his way to being number one on this list until a hamstring injury put him on the IL for the first time in his career. When he was on the mound, he was nasty as always. He threw seven innings in each of his first three starts of the month, including a 10-strikeout, no-run outing against the Angels. The home run ball caught up to him in his final two starts of the month, allowing two to the Yankees and two more against the Pirates, which made his numbers go from outstanding to just very good. Once Cease recovers from his injury, all signs point to him being a dominant pitcher once again. No. 3: Spencer Miles May Stats: 20.2 IP, 17 H, 9 ER, 19 K, 7 BB, 3.92 ERA, 1.16 WHIP Where would this team be without Spencer Miles? Rule 5 picks with virtually no professional experience rarely become meaningful contributors, let alone one as impactful as Miles. Miles was tasked with being the de facto “long man” out of the bullpen to cover one of the bullpen days, and he’s done it with flying colours. A four-pitch mix with excellent command has done him wonders, and his ability to induce soft contact has been noticeable, as his 85.4 average EV was the lowest among the "starters" (min. 20 IP) in May. Sunday’s rough outing may have been his first sign of fatigue, but it shouldn't overshadow what was an excellent month for him. No. 2: Trey Yesavage May Stats: 31.2 IP, 22 H, 9 ER, 36 K, 17 BB, 2.56 ERA, 1.23 WHIP Welcome back, Trey Yesavage! After his 2026 season start was delayed by right shoulder impingement, Trey returned and immediately made an impact. His 31.2 innings led all Blue Jays pitchers in May, as did his 1.1 fWAR. The swing-and-miss stuff is still clearly evident, as he led all Blue Jays starters with a 14.9% swinging strike rate. The highlight was when he went into Yankee Stadium, matched up against fellow rookie Cam Schlitter, and Yesavage got the better end of it, striking out Aaron Judge three times and, most importantly, earning the win. His command has wavered at times, as evidenced by a 38.7% zone rate and a seven-walk performance on Saturday, ultimately keeping him from the top spot on this list. Still, it's hard to argue with the results, and he was one of the biggest reasons the Blue Jays’ pitching staff excelled in May. No. 1: Louis Varland May Stats: 15.0 IP, 11 H, 0 ER, 16 K, 5 BB, 0.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP Louis Varland is not only the best reliever on the Blue Jays, but you could also make an argument that he’s been the best reliever in baseball this season. In the month of May, Varland led all MLB relievers in Win Probability Added (1.66). He led all Blue Jays pitchers in groundball rate, soft contact rate, ERA, and saves. John Schneider has trusted him to get outs against the toughest parts of opposing lineups, and on three separate occasions, Varland has recorded multi-inning saves, highlighted by a scoreless ninth and 10th inning in Detroit earlier in the month. If Varland keeps this up (and there’s no reason to think he won't), then that first All-Star Game is likely in sight. Varland was Jays Centre's Pitcher of the Month for March/April, and he makes it twice in a row with his appearance here in May. Heading into June, the Blue Jays' pitchers will need to continue carrying their share of the load as the club looks to climb back into the playoff picture. With reliable veterans like Gausman, emerging contributors like Yesavage and Miles, and reinforcements like Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber on the way, the pitching staff is finally starting to come together. With Varland continuing his dominance at the back end of the bullpen, the Blue Jays' pitching staff is going to be in good shape going forward. View full article

Editor's Note: This article was written prior to yesterday's game. Hoffman took the loss on Saturday, giving up five runs in the bottom of the ninth. He threw his slider 54% of the time (13 out of 24 pitches), Jeff Hoffman’s removal from the closer role in late April could have easily become one of the defining stories of the Blue Jays season. Instead, Louis Varland ran with the opportunity, emerging as one of the best relievers in baseball and solidifying the late-game picture for the Blue Jays. Lost in Varland’s dominance has been Hoffman's own reinvention. Since being removed from the role, Hoffman has quietly posted a 2.45 ERA, while striking out 20 batters and walking just two. The improved results may not be a coincidence either. Over the past few weeks, Hoffman has made a significant change to how he attacks opposing hitters. Hoffman has been one of the more perplexing pitchers in Toronto’s bullpen since arriving in Toronto. At times, he’s looked virtually unhittable, overpowering hitters with elite swing-and-miss stuff. Then on occasion, he’s been surprisingly vulnerable, particularly when it comes to the home run ball. In 2025, Hoffman allowed 15 home runs, the most of any reliever in the American League, a surprising outcome for a pitcher with such impressive underlying characteristics. Historically, Hoffman has relied on a three-pitch mix: a fastball that averages 97 mph with 17.4 inches of vertical break, a slider that generated a 47.3% whiff rate in 2025, and a splitter that he would use as a weapon predominantly against left-handed hitters. In 2025, as well as early on in 2026, he led with his four-seam fastball, throwing it 37.4% of the time last season, and 38.4% through his first 21 games this season. The problem with that is that Hoffman’s fastball simply hasn’t been very effective. Here's how his three most used pitch types performed in 2025: Four-seam fastball: .915 OPS, 10 HR Slider: .498 OPS, 3 HR Splitter: .642 OPS, 2 HR Those trends have continued so far in 2026: Four-seam fastball: .960 OPS, 3 HR Slider: .725, 0 HR Splitter: .641, 0 HR For Hoffman, the fastball has been the pitch that has given him the most trouble. The obvious solution would seem incredibly simple: just throw it less often. Over his past six appearances, Hoffman has been doing exactly that. Over his last six games, Hoffman has leaned heavily on his slider as his primary pitch, throwing it 64.9% of the time, compared to a 35.2% on the regular season. The fastball is down to just 16% usage, compared to 34.6% overall rate in 2026. The change is an understandable one. The slider has consistently been Hoffman’s most effective pitch, and the disparity in results between it and the fastball makes the adjustment a logical one. Since making the change, he’s thrown six innings, allowed four hits, faced 20 batters, struck out 10 of them, and walked none. On the surface, the adjustment makes perfect sense. After all, Hoffman's slider has consistently produced better results than his fastball. What's more interesting is figuring out why his fastball has struggled so much in the first place. The surprising part is that Hoffman isn’t getting hit because he lacks stuff. In fact, it's quite the opposite. Looking at the Stuff+ metric on FanGraphs, Hoffman’s four-seam fastball ranks eighth in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched: It's unusual for a pitch that grades this well to produce results so poor. In other words, the problem isn’t in the quality of the pitch itself. Usually, when that happens, location is the first issue that comes to mind, but for Hoffman, that hasn’t necessarily been the case either. Location+ has Hoffman's fastball third highest on the team. It is also the second-highest of those eight pitchers named on the previous list. So, if that's not the case, it's time to dive a little deeper, and the problem seems to stem from when he throws his fastball. Here's where he's thrown the pitch when he’s ahead in the count: When he’s behind in the count: And when the count is even: The data suggests Hoffman may be becoming too predictable. When hitters find themselves in even counts, they’re frequently getting a fastball in the portion of the zone where four-seamers are the most vulnerable. At that point, the quality of the pitch matters less than the hitter's ability to anticipate it. Since he’s made the change, Hoffman has posted a 31% zone rate and a 38.5% chase rate on the slider. The challenge with any slider-heavy approach is maintaining enough strike-throwing ability to keep hitters honest. If opposing hitters become too comfortable taking the pitch, Hoffman could find himself back in situations where hitters can sit on his fastball, and as we’ve seen, that doesn’t historically go well. His adjustment also reflects a broader league-wide trend. League-wide, fastball usage has dropped even though fastballs are being thrown harder than ever before. For the Blue Jays, this is another example of them trying to get the most out of what they have in a pitcher. Varland remains the headline act in Toronto’s bullpen, but Hoffman’s recent adjustment may be just as important. By shifting away from a fastball that has consistently been his most vulnerable pitch and leaning into a slider that has long been his most dominant weapon, Hoffman appears to be evolving into a more complete reliever. For a Blue Jays team that has struggled offensively for most of the season, turning late leads into wins is critical, and Hoffman’s new approach could play a major role in making that happen. 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The Blue Jays have been searching for a defining moment all season. Between injuries, underperformance from key veterans, and their position in the AL East slipping quickly, the club desperately needed a spark. For now, Daulton Varsho’s walk-off grand slam last Wednesday may be just the spark the Blue Jays were looking for. It was the Blue Jays' first grand slam of the season and one of their biggest offensive swings of the year. More importantly, it came against a division rival they are actively trying to catch in the AL East. For Daulton Varsho, this has to have been a relief. Aside from a small stretch earlier in the season when he hit three home runs in four games, his power had virtually disappeared, mirroring the larger offensive issues the Blue Jays have dealt with as a team. Entering games on May 20, Varsho was on pace for 17 home runs, after hitting 20 in an injury-shortened 71-game season the year prior. A lot of the power numbers – including his SLG, ISO, and barrel rate – have all taken a sharp drop through 46 games this season. At first glance, that change may appear to be a step backward for a Blue Jays team desperate for power, but the underlying production suggests Varsho has not necessarily become a worse hitter, just a different one. Firstly, let's flash back to what made him successful in 2025. Varsho sold out for power in a noticeable way. He mashed 20 home runs in 71 games, his pull-air rate (29.5%) had him in the top 15 in baseball, and his bat speed, and most notably his fast swing rate, soared to 56.2%. Particularly, he became elite at doing damage on pitches low in the zone: The approach did come with trade-offs. Varsho posted a career-high swinging strike rate (15.4%) and a five-year low contact rate (71.7%), but the elite damage more than justified the sacrifice. He enjoyed the best offensive season of his career, mashing 20 home runs while posting a career-high .833 OPS. Varsho had a clear plan of attack at the plate, and with it came immediate success. That is what has made his 2026 season so fascinating. Many of the traits that fueled his breakout 2025 campaign have faded, forcing him to find different ways to remain productive offensively. First, pitchers adjust. If Varsho was going to consistently hammer pitches low in the zone, opposing staffs were naturally going to attack him differently, and that has clearly happened early in 2026: On top of that, some of the skills that made Varsho elite have fallen by the wayside, too. His fast swing rate has dropped significantly, as has his pull-air rate: These changes could be connected. League-wide, batters typically swing slower on pitches up in the zone, and balls that get on you quickly are less likely to be hit in the air to the pull side. But even with that, Varsho still isn’t swinging as hard, even on the pitches he does get down in the zone: In today's game, where teams can identify and attack offensive tendencies almost immediately, hitters rarely survive in the long term with just one version of themselves. The league constantly forces adjustments, and the best players in the game are usually the ones who adjust with them. Varsho appears to understand that. Rather than continuing to chase the exact offensive profile that made him successful in 2025, he has started reshaping his approach to counter the way pitchers are now attacking him. His decrease in bat speed has coincided with improved contact, and while not all of it is good, there have been some notable improvements: Stat 2025 2026 Difference K Rate 28.4% 18.4% +10.0% BB Rate 6.3% 8.6% +2.3% OBP .284 .346 +.062 Line Drive Rate 16.9% 24.8% +6.9% Varsho's plate approach has shifted dramatically. He’s gone from a high-torque, pull-side power approach to a more disciplined approach built around contact and on-base ability. It's an offensive identity the Blue Jays have increasingly embraced as a team. The change in approach isn’t necessarily a bad thing. While the Blue Jays could certainly use more power, especially after John Schneider called out his team's need for slug following Tuesday’s loss to the Yankees, Varsho has remained productive despite the change in approach. As a result, his numbers on the season look quite similar to where they were last year. His wOBA is virtually the same (.345 in ‘25 vs .346 in ‘26), his wRC+ is similar (123 vs 120), and he is currently on pace to be the Blue Jays' best position player by bWAR (4.4). In other words, the production hasn’t disappeared; it's arriving in a different form. If anything, Daulton Varsho has added another dimension to his offensive game. He has already proven he can impact the ball with elite pull-side power, and this season he has shown an ability to contribute through patience, contact quality, and on-base ability. Considering Varsho entered professional baseball as a catcher before developing into one of the sport's best defensive outfielders, his ability to reinvent himself offensively should not be underestimated. The next step for Varsho may be learning when to lean into each version of his offensive game. Can he unleash an aggressive, pull-side swing when pitchers make mistakes inside the zone, while also maintaining the more disciplined approach he has developed this season? If he can consistently blend those two identities together, the Blue Jays may unlock an even more complete hitter. Since Varsho’s grand slam last Wednesday, he’s hitting .500 with a 1.272 OPS in a small sample, offering a glimpse of what this newer version of himself can look like when everything clicks. John Schneider appeared to recognize that as well, hitting him third in the lineup against right-handed pitching over the road trip. There is still plenty of baseball left to play, but Varsho’s season may be less about rediscovering his old form and more about refining a new one. If pitchers are eventually forced to adjust again, it may signal that his offensive evolution is beginning to work and that an even more complete version of Varsho may still be emerging. Stats and graphics updated prior to games on May 20. View full article

Hitting major league pitching is hard. Hitting major league pitching as a rookie is even harder. Pitchers routinely throw 100+ mph, breaking pitches move just a little bit more, and the challenge extends beyond the batter's box. Even if traditional rookie hazing has mostly disappeared, first-year players still have to adjust to heavier travel schedules, heightened expectations, and performing in front of millions of eyes every night. Kazuma Okamoto is different from your typical rookie. Not only does he deal with all the prior rookie struggles, but he’s also doing it all while making an adjustment from Japan to North America. That can be a significant adjustment of its own, and it wouldn’t have been a surprise at all to see Okamoto struggle in his first go-around in the big leagues. Not only has Okamoto been impressive, but he’s also already on the shortlist for one of the best rookie seasons in Blue Jays history. The Blue Jays have only had one player in franchise history to win the Rookie of the Year award (Eric Hinske, 2002), and if Kazuma keeps up his start to the season, he has a real chance to win the award in what is a crowded AL rookie class. Coming into the weekend series against the Tigers, Okamoto is hitting .239/.328/.458, with 37 hits, 10 home runs, and 27 RBI, in 42 games played. Good enough for a 120 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR. Pace that out over the rest of the regular season, he’d be on pace for 139 hits, 38 home runs, 102 RBI, and 3.8 fWAR. Of course, projecting full-season totals in May comes with caveats. Pace assumes health, consistency, and the absence of a prolonged slump, all things that can easily happen over a 162-game season. But just for fun, what would it look like if Okamoto did maintain his current pace? Where would he rank among the best Blue Jays rookies of all time? Let’s take a look. (Note: Rookie status is based on a player’s final rookie-eligible season.) Power Production Home Runs 1. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 38 2. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 24 3. J.P. Arencibia, 2011 - 23 ISO (min. 400 PA) 1. Shawn Green, 1995 - .222 2. Rowdy Tellez, 2019 - .222 3. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - .219 Hard-Hit Rate* 1. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 52.8% 2. Alejandro Kirk, 2021 - 46.9% 3. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 2018 - 45.1% * Exit Velocity data only goes back to 2015 The home run pace is the obvious headline; Hinske’s franchise record of 24 suddenly looks very reachable, and Okamoto could easily become the first Blue Jays rookie to eclipse 30 home runs. What makes the power production especially believable is that the underlying quality of contact supports it. Okamoto’s hard-hit rate isn’t just good for a rookie; it’s elite by any standard. Overall Value wRC+ (min. 400 PA) 1. John Olerud, 1990 - 122 2. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 121 3. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 120 Win Probability Added 1. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 3.83 2. Josh Phelps, 2002 - 1.98 3. Brett Lawrie, 2011 - 1.90 … 7. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 1.09 fWAR 1. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 4.8 2. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 3.8 3. Cavan Biggio, 2019 - 2.6 The power numbers grab the headlines, but Okamoto has been productive across the board. The 3.8 fWAR would rank as the second-best rookie campaign by a Blue Jays position player. Traditional Stats Hits 1. Alfredo Griffin, 1979 - 179 2. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 158 3. Dámaso García, 1980 - 151 4. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 139 RBI 1. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 102 2. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 84 3. J.P. Arencibia, 2011 - 78 Strikeouts 1. Kazuma Okamoto, 2026 - 188 2. Eric Hinske, 2002 - 138 3. J.P. Arencibia, 2011 - 133 The swing and miss is still present, and with it, the strikeout total will likely be a rookie record. But in the modern game, that trade-off becomes easier to live with, given elite power production. And Okamoto has provided plenty of that this season. Historically, the Blue Jays haven’t produced many offensive debut seasons at this level. Hinske remains the franchise’s only rookie of the year winner, and even some of the organization's best homegrown hitters (Olerud, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jesse Barfield, George Bell) didn't immediately produce at this level. If Okamoto simply maintains his current level of production, he’ll have a case for one of the best rookie seasons in franchise history. There is reason to believe that Okamoto’s numbers could be even better. On pace numbers take his 42-game season so far and project them over the rest of the season, but Okamoto’s season has looked incredibly different depending on where you split it. Okamoto started relatively poorly. He was chasing too much, and by April 17th, he was hitting just .188/.263/.290 with two home runs and four RBI. The following day, Okamoto made some changes at the plate, particularly by moving farther back in the batter’s box (more on the adjustment here). The tweak has given him more time to catch up to velocity and recognize breaking balls while also helping him cover pitches on the outer half more effectively. From that point on, he started raking. Okamoto has hit .279/.376/.593 with eight home runs and 24 RBI since that change. The real answer is that Kazuma is probably not the player he’s been post-stance change, and he’s probably not the player he was before; the true production lies somewhere in the middle. But if you believe that Okamoto is closer to the latter than the former, then those Blue Jays rookie records could be even more in reach. Now, as challenging as it is to be a rookie, Okamoto was expected to be an impact offensive player off the bat. He’s 30 years old, and unlike a typical 22-year-old rookie, he has eight seasons of professional baseball under his belt. Beyond the individual accomplishment, Okamoto’s success could have broader implications for the organization. The recent success could make the organization more comfortable in the NPB market, and the Blue Jays have ramped up their overseas scouting in recent off-seasons. It may lead to increased interest in players like Hiromi Itoh and Teruaki Sato, who seem likely to be posted for the 2027 season. Kazuma Okamoto has already put together an outstanding start to his MLB career, and if he can keep this up, Blue Jays fans may be witnessing one of the greatest rookie seasons in franchise history. View full article

The Blue Jays' lack of power has been a serious issue this year. Pick your favourite stat: home runs, ISO, average exit velocity, or hard-hit rate. The Blue Jays rank in the bottom third in the league in all of them, and that's part of the reason why they find themselves below .500 early in the season. Take a quick look at the wRC+ leaderboard for the team, and here’s what you’ll see: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 139 Myles Straw - 129 Kazuma Okamoto - 119 Ernie Clement - 100 Daulton Varsho - 96 * Stats going into games on May 5, min. 50 PA The name at the top isn't surprising. But what's more surprising: that the Blue Jays have only three hitters with a wRC+ over 100? Or that Myles Straw is one of them? While the answer to that is likely the former, it’s absolutely a surprise that Straw has been hitting the ball so well. His reputation is that of an elite defensive outfielder, a threat on the bases, and a good quality guy in the clubhouse. The bat, however, has always been an issue. Since 2020, he’s never had a wRC+ above 100, and he’s never hit more than four home runs in a season. It got to the point that the Cleveland Guardians had him play in the minors for most of 2024. Even with that elite speed and defence. Fast forward to 2026, and Straw has looked like a completely different hitter. The results speak for themselves, but the real story is how he's achieving them. Straw is swinging harder and, more importantly, pulling the ball in the air at a rate like never before. That's how you hit rockets into the upper deck. While Straw may never be a true impact power hitter, he’s been able to get the most out of his swings so far. via Baseball Savant The first change is how hard he’s been swinging. His bat speed has been up slightly, but the more meaningful jump is in his fast swing rate, which now sits at 15.5%. Across the league, swings over 75 mph produce a .389 wOBA compared to just .266 on slower swings. Straw may not always swing with elite bat speed, but he's been picking his moments to get a good hack in this year. Swinging harder is only part of the story. He’s made notable changes to where in the field he hits the ball. On a recent episode of Sportsnet's At The Letters, Arden Zwelling mentioned (minute 37) he spoke to Straw after Saturday’s game against the Twins, and Straw explained, “For like six years there, I just kept flying to right, and I decided I didn't want to do that anymore.” So far in 2026, the adjustment is showing up. Straw’s pull rate is the highest of his career, and with it has come a significant jump in production. As you can see, the Pull% is the highest it's been in his career, and the wOBA is elevated as a result. It’s the highest he's had since his nine-AB debut season in 2018. Damage typically doesn’t come from hard groundballs; it comes from balls hit in the air to the pull side. 32% of Straw's batted balls have been this batted ball type, a mark that not only leads the Blue Jays but also puts him in the top 15 in all of baseball. For reference, 66% of home runs across baseball are the result of pulled air balls, and pulled air balls result in a .733 wOBA vs. .353 on those that aren’t pulled in the air. What makes these changes even more impressive is that Straw hasn’t sacrificed contact to make them. His overall contact rate (90.8%) and zone contact rate (95.3%) are both career highs. At the same time, he's seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone, and he’s swinging less because of it. It's no coincidence he is the only Blue Jay with more walks than strikeouts this season. As these changes have taken effect, pitchers have responded by throwing Straw fewer strikes, a sign that the opposing teams are adjusting to the new version of Straw. More damage on contact, without giving up the ability to put the ball in play, is exactly what the Blue Jays want to see from their hitters. The obvious question is whether or not this production is sustainable. Some regression is likely over time, and while that still may be the case, the higher rate of swings and pulled contact in the air indicates a real change in approach. Even if the numbers do take a step back, the process behind them suggests this isn’t just a hot streak. The Blue Jays need more than just a Myles Straw breakout to fix their offense, but his emergence has been one of the few bright spots early in the season. By reshaping his swing, hitting the ball harder and consistently lifting it to his pull side, Straw has found a way to create the kind of damage he’s never done before. If the approach holds, this could be the start of a legitimate offensive breakout, not just a hot start, and that is something the Blue Jays desperately need. View full article

The Toronto Blue Jays' farm system has produced some impact bats in recent years. Players like Addison Barger and Davis Schneider played key roles during the club's 2025 World Series run, while homegrown stars like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk remain central to the current core. At the minor league level, however, the overall picture hasn't been as strong. As a system, the Blue Jays rank near the bottom in strikeout rate, on-base percentage, and wOBA while having the lowest exit velocity in affiliated baseball (where Statcast data is available). Some of that can be attributed to the recent success of the big league team and having fewer early-round draft picks, but it doesn’t fully explain the lack of impact production across the system. Even so, there are still reasons for optimism. Here, we will highlight the hitters who have stood out and forced their way onto the radar early in the season. Honourable Mentions Tucker Toman, 2B/3B (A+): 18 G, .311/.456/.492, 2 HR, 19.0 BB%, 27.8 K%, 170 wRC+ It's good to see some success from Toman, who struggled early in his minor league career. He’s abandoned switch-hitting and is now exclusively batting left-handed, and it's a change that is paying off. The underlying profile still raises some questions: a 65% groundball rate and a .447 BABIP suggest regression is likely. Still, the improved plate discipline and emerging power are real positives for Toman and bode well for him going forward. Josh Kasevich, SS (AAA): 26 G, .283/.365/.424, 1 HR, 10.6 BB%, 11.5 K%, 115 wRC+ Kasevich was one of the biggest standouts in spring training, and he’s carried that into the season with steady production. He leads all Blue Jays minor leaguers in doubles (8), owns a system-best 5.2% swinging-strike rate, and has even shown more aggressiveness on the bases after failing to successfully steal a base in 2025. With his profile, he’s firmly on the shortlist to make his MLB debut later this season. Peyton Williams, 1B (A/A+): 19 G, .339/.476/.508, 1 HR, 20.7 BB%, 14.6 K %, 172 wRC+ Williams has bounced back nicely after a disappointing 2025 season. The Blue Jays sent him back to Dunedin to start the year to help him reset and refine his approach, and so far, the results have been encouraging. He’s already moved back up to Vancouver, and he's showing a much more refined approach, walking more than he’s striking out while dramatically improving his contact ability (7.8% SwStr%, down from 15.6%). If that contact gains hold, the power he already possesses could allow him to get back on track and move quickly through the farm system. Top 3 #3 - Blaine Bullard, OF (A): 20 GP, .234/.322/.455 4 HR, 14 SB, 9.9 BB%, 36.3 K%, 109 wRC+ No first-year player has made more of an impact in the system than Bullard. The Blue Jays look sharp for having given the 12th-round pick an over-slot bonus in the 2025 draft, and he’s off and running. Literally. The speed is a true weapon, as he’s already accumulated a system-high 14 stolen bases through just 20 games played. Pair that with him hitting four home runs, and the power/speed combination immediately stands out. Bullard ranked 14th on Jays Centre's top prospects list coming into 2026, and if he can keep up this pace, he’s going to be much higher on our list by season's end. The strikeout rate (36.3%) is the clear concern, and it's what keeps him at number three in this piece, but there is no doubt that Bullard has been one of the most dynamic players in the system this month. #2 - Carter Cunningham, 1B/OF (A+): 23 GP, .299/.431/.609, 6 HR, 2 SB. 13.8 BB%, 25.7 K%, 185 wRC+ At 25 years old and in High A, it's time for Cunningham to dominate, and so far, he has. The 2024 10th-round pick has been on a tear to begin the 2026 season. He’s tapped into his power in a meaningful way. His 49% fly ball rate is a career high, and paired with a 53% pull rate, it is clear he’s made an intentional swing change, which is how hitters turn their raw power into game power. The results speak for themselves: his 23 RBI lead all Blue Jays minor leaguers. Just as importantly, he’s improved his contact skills, cutting his swinging-strike rate and increasing his contact rate, without sacrificing impact. He’s turned himself into a dynamic hitter, and the next step will be proving it against upper-level pitching, which will come quickly if this power binge continues. #1 - Sean Keys, 1B/3B (AA): 21 GP, .321/.436/.705, 9 HR, 1 SB, 11.7 BB%, 25.5 K%, 184 wRC+ In a system that has struggled to generate offensive impact, Keys has been the exception. After setting the Vancouver Canadians home run record in 2025, Keys picked up right where he left off, this time in Double A. His nine home runs not only lead the Blue Jays system, but all of Double A, and they're coming with authority. At 6-foot-1, 232 lbs, Keys has the build of an elite power hitter. He won’t maintain the 50+ home run pace he’s on, but it isn't a fluke stretch. The power is real, and it's showing up consistently, even in cold weather conditions in the Northeast. Keys is quickly turning himself into one of the most impactful power bats in the system. No hitter in the system has matched his combination of power, production, and impact, making him the clear choice at the top spot. What Keys is doing is impossible to ignore. For more on the slugging infielder, Jays Centre's Cory Sparks recently made a great video, which you can watch here. All stats up-to-date through games on April 30. View full article

Baseball can change, and baseball can change fast. Just take a look at Yariel Rodríguez. In 2024, he was a key piece in the starting rotation, making 21 starts and pitching to a respectable 4.47 ERA. In 2025, he joined the bullpen and was dynamite in the first half, with a 2.47 ERA and a 25.6% K rate. He quickly became a key high-leverage reliever for the team. But all that seems like a distant memory. Yariel struggled in the second half. His velocity dropped, the strikeouts followed, and everything else (walks, WHIP, and ERA) went in the wrong direction. With that, the man who was relied on heavily in the first half of the season was left off the playoff roster and has since found himself much further down on the depth chart. In what was a surprising move this offseason, the Blue Jays outrighted him off the 40-man roster entirely, and he went unclaimed on waivers. Rodríguez was then at a turning point in his career. He could accept that this was just the new normal and ride buses in the minor leagues for the remaining two years of his four-year deal, or he could get back to work and try to figure out how to get back to Toronto and help the big league team. So far in the minors, it looks like he chose the latter. Through Buffalo’s first 21 games of the season, Rodríguez has appeared in six of them (prior to games on April 21), throwing 8.2 IP, and early returns look promising. He has a respectable 3.12 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and he’s holding opposing hitters to a .133 batting average against. Under the hood, the numbers look even better. He’s sporting a 21.7% swinging-strike rate, which has led to an exceptional 47.2% K rate. That’ll play. Missing bats was never really the issue for Rodríguez; his problems had been a decline in velocity and in command. At first look, the walks are still elevated (13.9% BB rate), but he has been able to find the strike zone more consistently, currently sitting at 59% (95 of his 161 pitches have been strikes), which is up from the 56.5% he was at in the second half of 2025. As for his velocity? It's still down from the 96.1 mph he averaged in the first half of 2025, but in the second half, he sat around 95 mph, and that's right where he sits currently. 95 mph is still playable in the big leagues. In a small sample, the results have been promising, but it's how he’s getting the results that really stands out. He’s completely changed his pitch mix, throwing his fastball significantly less and leaning more heavily on his splitter. Here’s the pitch mix in 2025: And in 2026: So far, the splitter has led to exceptional results. Rodríguez has thrown 50 splitters this year. Here is how they have performed: Whiffs - 20 (40% of all splitters) Balls - 21 (42%) Fouled off - 3 (6%) Called Strikes - 2 (4%) Balls in play - 3 (6%) Hits allowed - 1 (2%) This has led to an outstanding 74.1% whiff rate (whiffs divided by total swings). There is certainly some small sample noise contributing to this, but you don't achieve high numbers like this by accident. For context, Trey Yesavage's splitter had a 57.1% whiff rate, and Brendon Little’s knuckle curve was at 55.6% in 2025. Major league hitters won't swing and miss as often as Triple-A bats, but still, Yariel Rodríguez has unlocked something with this wipeout pitch. So, should the Blue Jays call him up? Well, the simple answer is no. The small-sample change is encouraging, and with his revamped pitch mix, there is a legitimate case that he’s trending back to being a major league-calibre arm. But baseball is a game of adjustments; word of Yariel’s splitter will get around the league, and other lineups will adjust. This is similar to what happened to Little and his knuckle curve: He was striking out the world with that pitch, but other teams have learned to take it, and as a result, Little has been far less effective since. How Rodríguez reacts to these inevitable adjustments will give the Blue Jays a better sense of whether he’s ready to rejoin the team. There is also the issue of the players in front of him. No one has warranted losing their job. For as injury-prone as the Blue Jays have been as a whole, the bullpen has largely remained intact. Jeff Hoffman has had his struggles, but even if he’s removed from the closer role, he’ll still be on the roster. Louis Varland, Braydon Fisher, and Tyler Rogers have been terrific. And the Blue Jays risk losing Tommy Nance (out of options) or Spencer Miles (Rule 5 pick) if they decide to demote them from the roster. There simply isn’t a spot for Rodríguez on the roster right now. There’s also the issue that he is no longer on the 40-man. Chase Lee is likely the first name called up if there is a need for a right-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the impending returns of Yesavage, José Berríos, and Yimi García are likely going to have an effect on the bullpen as well. Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Yariel's return to the big leagues is not likely anytime soon. For now, Yariel Rodríguez can’t focus on that. He just needs to focus on what he can control, and right now, that's what he’s been doing on the pitcher's mound. If the splitter continues to miss bats at an elite level, then the Blue Jays will not be able to ignore him, and the conversation quickly becomes not if he’ll rejoin the big league team, but when. View full article

“It feels like we just keep getting punched in the mouth.” It wasn’t the first time Eric Lauer spoke about taking a punch to the mouth. But this time, instead of joking about a fat lip courtesy of Max Scherzer, he was talking about something far more damaging: the injury bug that has battered the Blue Jays early in the 2026 season. “It’s one of those things where we want it to just stop at some point. But we’ve just got to keep going through it, hoping the next guy steps up. Keep grinding.” Lauer has a point, and you can tell that the injury bug has gotten to the Blue Jays. Just this week, George Springer fouled a ball on his left toe, causing a fracture. After getting X-rays done, the Blue Jays decided to put him on the 10-day IL, joining several of his teammates that are currently hurt, only 15 games into the young season (as of April 14). Springer joins a list of offensive players on the sidelines that includes Addison Barger, who is on the 10-day IL with a sprained ankle, Alejandro Kirk who is out with a fractured thumb, and, dating back to the spring, the Blue Jays can factor in Anthony Santander, who had shoulder surgery in February and will likely not be back until September, if he returns at all. On paper, the Blue Jays are missing four of their projected top six hitters, and although they have depth on the roster, it's a situation no team wants. On the pitching side, things aren’t much better. Shane Bieber, Bowden Francis, José Berríos, and Trey Yesavage were all expected to be key pieces in the starting rotation. Yimi García was set to be a flamethrower out of the bullpen, but none of them left spring training healthy. Cody Ponce, who was expected to be a key part of the rotation after signing a three-year, $30 million contract this winter, lasted only 2.1 innings before he tore his ACL and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the 2026 season. There’s no way to sugarcoat it; the injuries have been brutal, and they're a big reason why the Blue Jays are below .500 early in the season. But just how bad have things been? The Blue Jays actually don’t have the highest number of players on the injured list (the Diamondbacks lead the way with 13), but in terms of the expected value of their hurt players, no team in baseball has been hit harder than the Toronto Blue Jays. Graphic per the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger Coming into the season, Baseball Prospectus projected the Blue Jays to win about 88 games and produce approximately 41.4 WARP (wins above replacement player). Through just 15 games, the Blue Jays have already lost a meaningful chunk of their projected production to injuries. If that pace holds (nearly 1.0 WARP lost every 15 games), it would equate to about 10 fewer wins than expected coming into the season, which would be the difference between making the playoffs and missing them entirely. Yesavage is reportedly nearing his return, while Springer isn't expected to be out for long. Still, Bieber, Ponce, Santander, García, and Berríos are set to miss significant time, and it's almost certain more players will get hurt between now and the end of the season. It hasn’t been all injuries; the Blue Jays haven't necessarily played their best on the field, either. But PECOTA now projects Toronto to end up with just 83.5 wins overall, a pretty sizeable drop this early on in the season. That's still the fifth-highest win projection in the American League. The concern is whether it keeps dropping. Every season, one team gets decimated by injuries. In 2025, it was the Houston Astros, who lost 12.44 WARP and narrowly missed the playoffs on the final day of the season. In 2024, the Atlanta Braves lost even more value (13.11 WARP), and they still made it in. The Blue Jays now find themselves in this exact situation, and there is no single blueprint for how a season like this plays out: Year Team WARP Lost Playoff Result 2025 Houston Astros 12.44 Missed Playoffs 2024 Atlanta Braves 13.11 Made Playoffs 2023 New York Yankees 13.42 Missed Playoffs 2022 Minnesota Twins 9.601 Missed Playoffs 2021 New York Mets 14.43 Missed Playoffs 2020 Houston Astros 6.305 Made Playoffs* 2019 New York Yankees 17.98 Made Playoffs 2018 Cleveland Guardians 8.752 Made Playoffs There’s no clear cutoff; teams in the past have both survived and collapsed under similar injury loads. The good news? Injury-plagued teams can still make the postseason. The 2018 Guardians, 2019 Yankees, and 2024 Braves all managed to do it. But they had something the 2026 Blue Jays don’t: they were coming off 100+ win seasons. Their baseline was so high that even a significant drop still left them in contention. The Blue Jays don’t have as much luxury. Injuries alone don't determine a team's fate, but they do expose it. Teams with strong foundations and a high floor can survive them, but teams without those assets don’t have the same margin for error. The key for this team is just to try to do whatever they can to stay afloat until reinforcements arrive. Being three games below .500 with a -25 run differential, one of the worst in baseball early on, is what it is. But no one in the American League is running away from the pack. One good week, and the Blue Jays can be right back on top again. The Blue Jays are doing everything they can to make that happen. Just this past week, the team signed Patrick Corbin to reinforce the starting rotation. They’ve also made trades with the Giants and White Sox for Tyler Fitzgerald and Lenyn Sosa, respectively They’ve recalled Brandon Valenzuela, who has shown flashes of promise so far, and called up Eloy Jiménez, who had a two-hit game in his season debut. If the Blue Jays can get some impact from elsewhere on the roster and start putting some wins together, it may be the difference between this team fighting for a spot in October and being on the outside looking in. Whether they can do it won't just depend on getting healthy; it'll depend on whether or not the Blue Jays were good enough to weather this in the first place. For Eric Lauer and the rest of the Blue Jays, it's their turn to do the punching. They will keep grinding, they will keep going until the next man steps up, and if that does happen, then they get to do the sweetest punch of all, and that's punching their ticket into the postseason. View full article

Just some more "fun" RISP stats to share: - Blue Jays tOPS+ with RISP is 87, 3rd worst in baseball. - zero HR with RISP - 24 RBI with RISP 29th in baseball despite being 7th in ABs - .241 xWOBA with RISP 29th in baseball - 86.1 AV EV with RISP 30th in baseball

“This is not our brand of baseball.” That was manager John Schneider’s message after the Blue Jays were shut out by the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, a loss that capped off a series sweep and dropped the Blue Jays to a 4-5 record. It marked the first time the team had been below .500 since May 28, 2025. A 4-5 start (now 4-7)* isn't disastrous, but it feels underwhelming after three series against the A’s, Rockies, and White Sox, especially with the latter two teams having lost 100-plus games in 2025. The concern isn't necessarily the results; it's how they’ve gotten there. Injuries have played a role, and the roster has changed, but the Blue Jays simply don't look like the team we’ve come to expect. In 2025, the Blue Jays relied on their team chemistry, elite defense all around the diamond, and their ability to put the bat on the ball and put pressure on opponents' defenses to succeed. It's a formula that worked well, leading the team into the Fall Classic. A large part of the success belongs to hitting coach David Popkins and his staff. They helped spark a resurgence from George Springer, breakout performances from Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho, and meaningful offensive contributions from the back half of their roster. They also had the Blue Jays swinging harder in the second half. A report from Eno Sarris of The Athletic noted that every Blue Jay was swinging harder in the second half of the season (aside from Andrés Giménez) and that number carried over into the postseason. Elite contact ability, combined with the intent to swing hard at hittable pitches, drove the Blue Jays’ success in 2025. Fast forward to 2026, and that identity is starting to slip. Their contact rate is stable, but take a look at how their fast-swing rate compares between the second half of 2025 and where we are in 2026: Fast-Swing Rate 2025: 29.1% 2026: 25.8% The situation only gets worse when you look at what pitches they're swinging the bat at. As a team, the Blue Jays have been swinging too much at pitches out of the zone. Their out-of-zone swing rate (per SIS) has climbed from 33.2% in the second half of 2025 to 36.5% so far in 2026. It doesn't matter how hard you swing when you're swinging at pitchers' pitches. Every Blue Jay that has had extended playing time over the past three seasons has seen their chase rate rise in 2026. Regular small-sample caveats apply, but it's not an encouraging sign, especially when it's happening across the board. Defensively, this team should be better than it was in 2025. Gone is Bo Bichette, who, according to Baseball Savant, ranked in the 4th percentile in fielding run value last season. He’s been replaced by Giménez at shortstop, who ranked in the 86th percentile in fielding run value in 2025. Ernie Clement has taken over at second, and Varsho remains in center field. The Blue Jays have won the team Gold Glove award in two of the past three seasons, and the good news is, they can do it again! Statcast's outs above average and fielding run value both have the Blue Jays ranked among the top five in the league early on. The issue is that the team is still making its fair share of errors. Fielding percentage is a flawed stat in many ways because not all errors are created equal, yet it's still worth noting that the Blue Jays have posted a .978 fielding percentage, ranking 23rd in baseball. Take Tyler Heineman, for example. He's stepped in as the Blue Jays' catcher after Alejandro Kirk left a game with a thumb injury, and made a bad throw that helped the White Sox push across a run and hand the Blue Jays another loss. The very next day, it was more of the same; the Blue Jays were down a run late, and another bad throw allowed the White Sox to add some insurance runs. The Jays couldn't catch up. Speaking of catcher defense, the Blue Jays have had their issues throwing out baserunners. In 2025, they allowed 110 stolen bases, 16th-most in baseball, right in the middle of the pack. So far in 2026, Kirk has allowed 10 baserunners to steal, while Heineman has allowed three, and Valenzuela one. Those 14 stolen bases against are the second-highest in baseball so far. Errors will happen, and just because they've happened early doesn’t mean they’ll continue. Still, that's not how the Blue Jays were built to play, and in the early part of the season, it's been costing them games. Right now, they aren’t being beaten; they're beating themselves. The good news? It's April. A slow start isn't insurmountable, and one strong week can reset everything. But if the Blue Jays want to get back on track, it starts with rediscovering their identity, controlling the zone, and swinging with intent. If that returns, so will the wins, and the Blue Jays will be back to playing their brand of baseball Stats updated before games on April 7. View full article

Welcome to the big leagues, Spencer Miles. As far as major league debuts go, the Blue Jays have had some memorable ones. J.P. Arencibia hit two home runs in a four-hit performance, Davis Schneider launched one over the Green Monster during an electric opening series, and while Kazuma Okamoto's didn't have the same flair, he reached base twice, recorded his first major league hit, and scored the game-winning run. Miles' debut was different. He made the team out of camp as a Rule 5 pick from the Giants system, meaning the Blue Jays must keep him on the roster for the whole season or risk losing him back to San Francisco. The plan was to ease him into low-leverage situations, let him get his feet wet, and introduce him to life in the big leagues in small doses. Baseball doesn’t always care about your plan. Game two of the season, and the Blue Jays' bullpen was already under pressure. After Dylan Cease left in the sixth inning, Toronto cycled through six relievers to reach the ninth, where Alejandro Kirk hit a game-tying home run to send the game to extras. John Schneider was then looking for options for the top of the 10th. The options were slim. He could have let Louis Varland work another inning, but he was already pitching on back-to-back days. Alternatively, he could have turned to Jeff Hoffman, who had also pitched the previous day, but Schneider had indicated he wanted to avoid overusing Hoffman and would only use him in a save situation, leaving just one option remaining. Enter Spencer Miles, who had thrown just 14.2 innings of affiliated baseball since being drafted in 2022. Injuries had limited his time on the field, leaving him with very little professional experience to draw from. But at this point, the Jays were desperate. They needed a win, and Spencer Miles was the one tasked with getting the job done. The inning began with the automatic runner on second, so the pressure was immediate. His first test was no easy one: two-time All-Star and former batting champion Jeff McNeil. After a first-pitch curveball missed outside for ball one, Miles left a sinker over the plate that McNeil sent right back at him. From there, baseball instinct took over. Without hesitation, he charged forward and immediately ran at Jacob Wilson, catching him in a rundown for the first out. A tremendous display of instincts for a pitcher with so little game experience. The next batter was Max Muncy. Miles opened with a slider just off the plate, then came back with another that Kirk framed perfectly for a strike. He followed it with a 98.3 mph sinker for another called strike, and two pitches later, he finished Muncy with a front-door slider that started off the plate and caught the zone, which Muncy swung over the top of for his first big league strikeout. A four-pitch walk and a flyout to right later, and Miles was out of the inning. He had inherited the automatic runner on second base and ended the inning without allowing the runner to score. He did exactly what the team needed: he gave them a chance to win. Sure enough, the Blue Jays did just that. After a Kirk strikeout and an intentional walk to Daulton Varsho, Ernie Clement delivered a line drive to left-center field, securing the win and ultimately, Miles’ first big league victory. “I blacked out a little bit. It's surreal; you dream of this as a kid,” Miles said postgame. “For them to even put me in that situation, I think it's just surreal.” John Schneider has to be encouraged by what he’s seen from the 25-year-old rookie, who has now passed his first big league test. On the whole, Miles threw 16 pitches – eight of them sliders – and generated two whiffs on just four swings. His fastball touched 98.2 mph, and his early Stuff+ numbers were impressive, including a 145 mark on his slider. Take the small sample with a grain of salt, but for a Blue Jays bullpen with early question marks, continued contributions like this could prove extremely valuable. For what it's worth, through two games (prior to the finale on Sunday), Spencer Miles was leading the pitching staff in Win Probability Added: via FanGraphs Whether this turns out to be a brief blip or the start of something bigger, Spencer Miles has already had his big league moment and, more importantly, helped the Blue Jays win a game in the process. If this outing is any indication, it may not be the last time he’s trusted in a big spot. View full article