The Brandon Valenzuela Problem the Blue Jays Didn't See Coming

The Blue Jays expected Alejandro Kirk's return to solve a problem. Instead, it may have created a new one.

When the season began, Kirk was on the short list of Blue Jays players the team couldn't afford to lose. He’s a middle-of-the-order bat, a leader in the clubhouse, and one of the best defenders in all of baseball. From 2023 through 2025, only Patrick Bailey had a higher Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) than Kirk.

All it took was seven games. Kirk took a foul ball off his thumb, suffering a fracture that sent him to the injured list for the next two months. 

Because of the injury, the Blue Jays found themselves in a difficult spot. Tyler Heineman was expected to handle most of the catching duties, while Brandon Valenzuela, a rookie who had impressed throughout spring training, was called up to fill the void. The transition to the major leagues is difficult for any prospect, but the challenge is even greater for catchers, who must not only adjust to big league pitching at the plate but also learn how to manage an entirely new pitching staff behind it.

Valenzuela was more than ready for the task.

Since his debut, Valenzuela has posted a 121 wRC+. His seven home runs are tied for second on the team, and his .792 OPS leads the Blue Jays (as of June 17).

Defensively, Valenzuela has been just as impressive. His Defensive Runs Above Average trails only Andrés Giménez on the Blue Jays and ranks among the top five catchers in baseball dating back to Kirk's injury. Baseball Savant loves his glove too. His 4.89-second average pop time is in the 82nd percentile in baseball, he’s in the 90th percentile in caught stealing above average, and his framing has been incredible. Only Dillon Dingler and Adley Rutschman have more catcher framing runs than Valenzuela.

Valenzuela's emergence has been noticed by the organization, as when Kirk returned from the injured list, the Blue Jays chose to keep him on the roster, despite his having minor league options, even if it meant the risk of losing Heineman (who is a good defensive catcher in his own right) to waivers or free agency. As a team that values depth and roster control, it wouldn’t have been a shock if they chose to send Valenzuela down instead.

The challenge for the Blue Jays wasn't determining whether Valenzuela had played well enough to remain on the roster; he clearly had.

The challenge is figuring out what comes next.

The simple solution would be to just insert Kirk back into the starting role and have Valenzuela take up the traditional backup catcher job, playing once every four or five days or when Kirk needs a break. The problem with that is that Valenzuela has been too good offensively to take out of the lineup right now:

(image from https://thatsball.baby/jays)

For a Blue Jays team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA, and home runs, it's hard to justify giving one of the best hitters on the team less playing time and expecting the results to get better.

There is another factor to consider. For as well as Valenzuela has played so far, he’s still a prospect who needs time to develop at the major league level. Catchers develop differently from other prospects, and the Blue Jays want to be confident that the Kirk-Valenzuela tandem will be their catching tandem of the future. Valenzuela losing reps behind the plate will only slow the evaluation process.

With all that said, Kirk remains one of the most important players on the roster. While Valenzuela is still building relationships with Toronto’s pitching staff, Kirk has already established himself as one of the game’s premier defensive catchers. For a team trying to win games now, that familiarity and stability behind the plate carries significant value. As impressive as Valenzuela has been, the Blue Jays still need Kirk in the lineup as often as possible.

Finding playing time for both catchers won't be easy. With Heineman now traded to the Angels, the Blue Jays are operating with only two catchers, making lineup flexibility more important than ever. Most teams prefer not to start both catchers on the same day because it limits late-game options and increases the risk of running out of depth if an injury occurs.

That reality means Kirk and Valenzuela won't be in the batting order together every day. Still, with the Blue Jays desperately searching for offence, there will be plenty of situations in which John Schneider will be tempted to find a way to fit both bats into the same lineup.

The easiest way to get both players into the lineup is to have Valenzuela or Kirk play another position. Recently, John Schneider mentioned that George Springer could see the occasional start in right field, opening the designated hitter spot for one of the two catchers. Valenzuela could also factor in at first base after appearing there 68 times in the minor leagues; he has recently begun taking practice reps at the position again. 

The good news in all of this is that it is essentially a good problem for the Blue Jays to have. They have too many talented players for not enough lineup spots, so John Schneider can get creative with how he uses his two catchers. Prioritizing Valenzuela doesn’t mean Kirk will see less playing time. Heineman still found his way into 31 games before he was designated for assignment. Taking into account that Valenzuela is a switch-hitter, getting him into the lineup against a tough right-handed pitcher will give the Blue Jays a platoon advantage.

In baseball, these things tend to have a way of sorting themselves out. Remember, the Blue Jays were supposed to have too many pitchers for not enough spots, and that hasn’t turned out to be true either. Catchers tend to take on a tremendous amount of wear and tear over the course of the season, so having depth at the position is still incredibly important.

But as long as the Blue Jays continue to search for more offence, they’ll need to find ways to get their best hitters into the lineup more often. For the time being, that includes both Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela.

The challenge for John Schneider is no longer deciding whether Valenzuela belongs in the major leagues. He has already answered that question. The challenge now is finding enough opportunities for one of the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters to stay on the field.

Stats updated prior to games on June 18.