Jesse Burrill

The Toronto Blue Jays have made their first major deadline move, sending veteran starter Kevin Gausman to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for outfielder Brett Bateman and infielder Ty Southisene. The move gives the Cubs additional rotation help for their stretch run, and for the Blue Jays, it’s a sign that they will likely be moving away from expiring contracts as they look to re-tool their roster for 2027. Gausman joined the Blue Jays on a five-year deal ahead of the 2022 season and arguably became one of the best free-agent signings in franchise history. He finishes his Blue Jays tenure with a 3.62 ERA, 12.8 bWAR, and 861 innings pitched across five seasons. Among pitchers in franchise history, Gausman ranks seventh in ERA, second in WHIP, ninth in starts, third in FIP, and first in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He was a cornerstone of the Blue Jays' rotation throughout its recent competitive window and was a key contributor through the 2025 World Series run. While the Blue Jays entered the season with expectations of competing for another postseason berth, the team severely underperformed. The Blue Jays currently find themselves in last place in the AL East, and with five teams separating them from the final American League Wild Card spot, the organization decided it was time to capitalize on its expiring contracts. With Gausman set to hit free agency at the end of the season, the Blue Jays opted to maximize his trade value rather than risk losing him for only draft pick compensation. In return for Gausman, the Blue Jays acquired two players who add depth and upside to their farm system. First, outfielder Brett Bateman is a 24-year-old left-handed hitter who was ranked 21st in the Cubs system by MLB Pipeline. Through 81 games in Triple-A, Bateman hit .312/.431/.422 with a 126 wRC+. While a .392 BAPIP helped boost those numbers, Bateman has consistently shown strong contact skills, posting just a 5.0 swinging-strike rate. That ability to control the strike zone is something the Blue Jays have prioritized in recent years. Bateman’s biggest limitation is his power, as he has hit just three home runs this season and is unlikely to ever develop into a middle-of-the-order bat. However, his best tools are his speed and defense, with MLB Pipeline grading his running ability at 70 and his work in center field as above average. That profile likely appealed to the Blue Jays, especially with Daulton Varsho and Myles Straw also on expiring contracts, and both could be moved before the deadline as well. With Ty Southisene, the Blue Jays are acquiring a 5-foot-7, 21-year-old infielder who shares some similarities to Bateman. Splitting time between two levels of the Cubs system, Southisene hit .311/.431/.378 with a 126 wRC+, showcasing the same type of contact-oriented offensive profile the Blue Jays have acquired and targeted in recent years. He consistently puts the ball in play, posting an 82.7% conctact rate, but power remains the biggest question mark in his game, as he has yet to hit a home run through his first two professional seasons. MLB Pipeline noted that Southisene hits the ball on the ground frequently and has struggled against offspeed pitches, areas the Blue Jays will need to help him improve in if he’s ever going to hit his offensive ceiling. However, his speed and defensive ability give him a strong foundation, with second base likely being his long-term position. The Gausman trade is likely the first of what could be a busy deadline period for the Blue Jays. With the team officially showing a willingness to move expiring contracts, attention will now turn towards which other veterans could be moved next. George Springer and Daulton Varsho could draw interest from teams looking to add experience for a postseason run, while players such as Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber could appeal to contenders looking for rotation help. However, the Blue Jays are unlikely to completely tear down their roster. With the acquisition of Jameson Taillon earlier in the day, the Blue Jays have shown it is still willing to add players to the roster as they look to compete again in 2027.. The Gausman era in Toronto is officially over, but his impact on the organization and the community will not be forgotten. Since arriving ahead of the 2022 season, he became much more than just a front-line starter for the team. He delivered countless memorable pitching performances and served as the anchor of the rotation during one of the most important stretches in franchise history. Off the field, Gausman embraced the city, his teammates, and the responsibility that came with being one of the faces of the franchise. While his time in Toronto has come to an end, Kevin Gausman will forever be remembered as one of the defining players in this chapter of Blue Jays baseball. View full article

The MLB Draft has come and gone, as has the Futures Game, and while the MLB trade deadline is the biggest talking point this time of year, there are some notable prospects that have found themselves making noise across the Blue Jays system. The Blue Jays seem likely to add to their farm system over the coming days, and those players will join a list of players who have seen their stock rise over the past month. Here are the candidates for the Blue Jays Minor League Hitters of the Month for July. Honorable Mentions Sebastian Casanova - Dominican Summer League - 18 GP, .483/.557/.439, wRC+, 14.1 K%, 14.1 BB% Welcome to organized baseball, Casanova. The 5-foot-9, 167 lb shortstop has been thoroughly enjoying his first season in organized baseball. The 17-year-old was signed as an international free agent out of Venezuela and has immediately hit the ground running, literally. He stole seven bases in the month and has 19 in his 37 games on the season. On top of that, he’s been raking at the plate, as his 189 wRC+ led the system this month. Pair that with a 30.6% line drive rate, a minuscule 6.0% swinging strike rate, and the fact he’s walking just as much as he’s striking out, and you can see why the Blue Jays like him. It’s going to be a long journey for a player so young, but he looks like one of the best returns from the Blue Jays international free agent class so far. JoJo Parker - Single-A Dunedin - 18 GP, .222/.345/.375, 96 wRC+, 25.3 K%, 12.6 BB% Parker got off to a slow start in July, collecting just five hits in his first 42 plate appearances, but he’s turned a corner since then. He recently had his first multi-home run game of the season, as well as his first triple of the season. He’s still putting the ball on the ground too frequently (60.8 GB% in July), but he’s showing why evaluators believe in the hit tool. Plus, he was able to turn around a 101 mph fastball in the Futures Game this month, which is impressive in its own right: No. 3 Arjun Nimmala Double-A New Hampshire - 15 GP, .255/.354/.545, 132 wRC+, 26.2 K%, 10.8 BB% Arjun Nimmala began the month on the injured list with a hamstring strain, which keeps him from being higher on this list. But he’s picked up right where he left off. Nimmala has continued to tap into his power with four home runs in 15 games, and the contact rate (73.9%) is an improvement on what he posted in his first season in the organization. On top of that, there are positive reports about his work at shortstop. You can see why he’s ranked inside the top 100 of every major prospect list and number three on the Jays Centre list. No. 2 Davis Schneider Triple-A Buffalo - 15 GP, .293/.469/.660, 189 wRC+, 25.0 K%, 21.9 BB% Davis Schneider was sent down to Buffalo at the end of June after posting a .578 OPS in 118 plate appearances on the season. The Blue Jays wanted to see him rediscover his offensive game, and he certainly did that while in Buffalo. His five home runs and 1.128 OPS led all Blue Jays minor leaguers in July. The Blue Jays had seen enough and recalled him to Toronto on July 23. Since his recall, he’s gone 1-for-11 with a double and three walks, so he’s still going to need to put it together in the major leagues, but he has nothing left to prove in the minors. No. 1 Josh Kasevich Triple-A Buffalo - 20 GP, .408/.511/.539, 188 wRC+, 9.0 K%, 13.0 BB% Josh Kasevich entered July with just three home runs and a 96 wRC+, but he has caught fire over the month's final weeks. Reaching base in more than half of his plate appearances is remarkable, but that’s exactly what Kasevich has done in July. He’s reached base in all but two games during the month. He’s also walked more than he’s struck out while posting a minuscule 4.0 SwStr%. Kasevich had a great spring training and was a candidate to make his big league debut this season. Now that his bat has heated up, it shouldn’t be a surprise if he sees time in Toronto later this summer. View full article

Agreed, Even if the chances are almost zero, if you don't ask you dont have a chance

There is always one question every selling team asks itself at the trade deadline: How can they get back the best prospect package? Sometimes the biggest advantage in trade negotiations isn’t the players being moved, it's the money that can be attached to a deal. As the Blue Jays look more and more like sellers, that financial flexibility could become one of Ross Atkins’ biggest trade assets. Atkins has shown a willingness to take on money in previous trades. If he’s willing to do it again, one club stands out as a particularly intriguing trade partner, and that's the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Jays and Pirates have had a consistent trade relationship in recent years. Pirates GM Ben Cherington previously worked with Ross Atkins as the Blue Jays' vice president of baseball operations from 2016-2019 before leaving for Pittsburgh. Most recently, the teams linked up in a three-team trade with Cleveland that sent Andrés Giménez to the Blue Jays and Spencer Horwitz to the Pirates. Back in 2024, the last time the Jays sold at the deadline, they traded Isiah Kiner-Falefa to Pittsburgh for Charles McAdoo. Recently, Bob Nightengale reported that the Pirates are planning to be aggressive at the deadline as long as it doesn’t increase the payroll. For the Blue Jays, this could be music to their ears. Imagine two clubs offer a similar prospect package for Daulton Varsho. The difference is that one team asks Toronto to cover the remainder of his salary while the other doesn’t. If the Blue Jays are willing to absorb the money, they're no longer trading just Varsho; they’re trading Varsho and payroll relief. That gives the team another bargaining chip, and it’s reasonable to expect a better prospect in return because they’re providing more value to the acquiring team. Pittsburgh is in a precarious position. As of Sunday evening, they have a 54-52 record and find themselves just one game out of a playoff spot. The Pirates haven’t made the postseason since 2015, and with Paul Skenes still in his pre-arbitration years, their competitive window is wide open. The time to make a push is right now. The team does have some areas of need, particularly in the bullpen. As a unit, their bullpen has a 4.50 ERA, and that number jumps to 8.70 in high-leverage situations, so an improvement there is paramount. The Pirates could also use an improvement defensively in center field. Oneil Cruz is great with the bat, but the numbers (-9 defensive runs saved) and the eye test leave you wanting more. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, they have players who fit those needs almost perfectly. Varsho is on an expiring contract, and the Blue Jays will likely look to trade him at the deadline. Myles Straw fits the mold, too. Both players have a history of playing exceptional center field defense, and Varsho also offers some left-handed power. In the bullpen, Jeff Hoffman carries a 4.30 ERA, but the strikeout rate, FIP, and underlying stats remain in line with some of the best of his career. Game 7 of the World Series aside, he also has a proven postseason track record. None of these players would lack suitors. Contenders consistently pay a premium for impact relievers and elite defensive center fielders. If the Jays are going to maximize their return, they shouldn’t just be shopping their players; they should be shopping payroll flexibility as well. Taking on money shouldn’t scare Toronto. The Blue Jays already carry one of baseball’s highest payrolls, and even after selling off at the deadline, they’re unlikely to fall below the luxury tax threshold. If absorbing an additional $5 million is the difference between landing a 40 FV prospect and a 45 FV prospect, then that’s an investment worth making for a club focused on 2027 and beyond. The Pirates could also move on from an expensive contract that the Blue Jays could take on. In their rotation, Skenes, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft are all under control, with additional pitching on the way. Because of that, Mitch Keller and his $39 million remaining on his contract in 2027 and '28 could be expendable. Keller wouldn’t be the centrepiece of the deal. Instead, his contract could serve as the financial leverage that allows the Jays to demand an even stronger prospect package. One player who doesn’t fit the obvious trade candidate mold is Louis Varland. Trading one of the best relievers in baseball with multiple years of control would be unpopular, but that's exactly why his value is so high. Deadline history shows controllable elite relievers can command franchise-altering returns. If the Pirates view themselves as a legitimate postseason team, then Varland is exactly the kind of arm worth paying a premium for. With the prospect package the Pirates could offer, the Jays should at least pick up the phone. Every extra dollar the Blue Jays are willing to absorb could translate into a better prospect this deadline. The Pirates may not be the only club that fits that equation, but this trade match is a great example of how money can serve as a prospect-acquisition tool. If Ross Atkins and company are serious about maximizing every trade, their payroll shouldn’t just be a budget; it should be another asset in trade talks. View full article

Good article, i feel like in order for this deadline to be a success the Jays need to find an impact player somewhere. Its time for the scouts to shine

Daulton Varsho may be the toughest decision the Blue Jays have to make at this year's trade deadline. The Blue Jays have underperformed expectations, and with the trade deadline fast approaching, moving expiring contracts is becoming a more realistic possibility by the day. Varsho is set to become a free agent after the season, making him one of the team's most intriguing trade chips. Just one season ago, Varsho looked like he’d unlocked another level offensively, hitting 21 home runs in just 71 games, despite dealing with injuries throughout the year. This season, his power has disappeared, his defensive metrics have taken a step back, and the Blue Jays have to decide whether they're looking at a temporary down year or a player in decline. To understand why this decision is so complicated, it's worth looking at how Varsho got to this point. Earlier this season, Varsho’s offensive approach looked noticeably different. He traded some of his fast swings for more contact, and while the adjustment has helped him strike out less and walk more than he did a year ago, the power has largely disappeared. The result has been a 91 wRC+ and a below-league-average offensive season. Considering Varsho was expected to be a middle-of-the-order contributor, that’s been one of the reasons the Blue Jays' offense has struggled. Then there’s the question of the defence. Varsho had been well known as one of the best defensive outfielders in the league (which is thoroughly impressive for a player who came up as a catcher). From 2022-25, according to Fielding Run Value, Varsho was the best defensive outfielder in baseball, and it wasn’t particularly close: But even that number has taken a dramatic step back in 2026. He’s currently tied for 26th out of all outfielders with an FRV of just +3. Part of that is likely because of the rotator cuff surgery, which appears to have affected his arm strength, and some of the defensive decline may also come from a loss of athleticism, as his sprint speed went from 28.4 ft/sec in 2025, down to a below-league-average 27.2 ft/sec this season. In fact, just about everything from his baseball savant profile is down across the board: All of that leaves the Blue Jays facing an uncomfortable question. If Varsho isn’t the same hitter (or defender) as he was a year ago, then what should they do with him at the upcoming trade deadline? That’s what makes Varsho such a fascinating trade candidate. He’s set to become a free agent at the end of the season, and because of that alone, he seems like a likely candidate to be moved at the deadline, but there’s a lot more to it than meets the eye. Unlike many rental players, the Blue Jays already have a fallback option. If they keep Varsho through the season, they can issue him a qualifying offer. If he accepts, they keep a starting center fielder for another season. If he declines and signs elsewhere, they receive draft pick compensation, so any return the Blue Jays get in a trade will need to be more valuable than that. The real test of whether Varsho is moved will be how he’s valued by teams across the league. As previously mentioned, Varsho’s season simply hasn’t been that productive. He's been a worse-than-league-average bat, his sprint speed has taken a step back, and he has been just a one-win player (according to fWAR) on the season so far. If a rival front office views Varsho as the player he’s been in 2026, the return probably isn’t as significant as the Blue Jays might hope. The closest comp could be Cedric Mullins, who was traded from the Orioles to the Mets at last year's trade deadline. Both players are roughly the same age. They hit from the same side of the plate. Mullins had a .690 OPS last season, whereas Varsho’s sits at .689. Both have built their value around elite center field defence, and were/are both set to be free agents at season's end. For Mullins, the Orioles received three right-handed pitchers in that trade, including the Mets' 14th- and 30th-ranked prospects, as well as another unranked prospect in their system, according to MLB Pipeline. It’s a reasonable comparison for projecting what the Blue Jays could expect in return. Is that price worth the potential draft pick compensation or the potential of Varsho coming back on the qualifying offer? It's tough to say. Of course, another team may view Varsho very differently. He is just one season removed from a 20-home run, 123 wRC+ season. He’s also a former Gold Glove winner who now has postseason experience under his belt. If another team thinks they can bring that player back into the picture, the price for Varsho would be much higher, and then the Blue Jays would almost certainly move on from their center fielder. Now, if the Blue Jays do decide to make a trade, there should be several suitors available. Whether the real Varsho is the 92 wRC+, 1.0 fWAR player he’s been this season, or the one who hit 20 home runs in 71 games in 2025, or anywhere in between, he can still provide value to any club headed to the postseason, and center field defence will always be valuable, especially in October, where every play is magnified. With that in mind, contenders with below-average center field production or a need for another left-handed bat could view Varsho as one of the more attractive position players available. Here are some of those teams: The Phillies: By fWAR, they have one of the worst outfields in baseball, and inserting Varsho into center immediately gives them an upgrade on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The Astros: Houston seems like a potential fit for an impact left-handed hitting outfielder. Taylor Trammell, Brice Matthews, and Jake Meyers have been rotating in the outfield, and recently called-up Lucas Spence has been spending time in center. Varsho would fit in here easily. The Rays: Admittedly, this won’t feel great for Blue Jays fans, but the Jays have proven they will trade within their division in the past, and the Rays value outfield defence just as much as anybody. That’s what makes Varsho one of the most fascinating players to watch over the next two weeks. The Blue Jays know exactly what he was in 2025; they also know what he’s been in 2026. What they, and the rest of baseball, still have to decide is which version of Daulton Varsho they believe is the real one. Until another team answers that question with an aggressive offer, the Blue Jays may be better off betting on the return of the Varsho they saw last season. View full article

JoJo ParkerArjun NimmalaNolan PerryJohnny KingJuan SanchezRicky TiedemannCole CarlonGage StaniferSean KeysBlaine BullardJake BlossVictor AriasCarson MessinaDaniel GuerraAustin CatesJake CookWill BrickJosh KasevichCharles McAdooTim Piasentin

Let the trades begin. On Friday afternoon, the Blue Jays made their first of what could be many trades this deadline season, sending right-handed pitcher Tommy Nance and international bonus pool money to the Minnesota Twins for catching prospect Ryan Sprock. On the surface, the move seems like a good piece of business. Nance was 35 years old, out of options, and had gradually slid down the bullpen depth chart. It’s not that he wasn't pitching well; in fact, he’s been quite solid. He'd been pitching mostly in lower-leverage situations, despite posting a respectable 3.86 ERA. John Schnieder had recently noted the club has a surplus of right-handed relievers, and replacing Nance with an optionable pitcher capable of covering multiple innings gives Toronto greater bullpen flexibility. The move feels like one a team that would be selling around the trade deadline would make. Turning an effective major league reliever into a prospect who may not reach the majors for several years isn't the type of move teams chasing a playoff spot typically make. Was this the first sign from the Blue Jays that they’re going to start selling pieces at the trade deadline? The easy reaction is to view every July trade through the lens of buying or selling, but not every deadline move is a declaration of intent. Sometimes it's simply about improving the organization wherever possible, and that appears to be the case here. There are several reasons this trade makes sense, regardless of Toronto’s deadline plans, starting with the fact that Tommy Nance’s value might never have been higher. He’s 35 years old, he’s strictly a one-inning middle reliever, and he doesn’t have any closing experience either. On top of that, Nance had allowed runs in each of his final three appearances as a Blue Jay, including allowing home runs in two of them. The fact that he’s out of options limits his roster flexibility, too, meaning the team has to keep him on the roster, or else they face the risk of losing him to waivers if they try to send him down. Relief pitchers are notoriously volatile from year to year, making it far from a guarantee that his value would improve between now and the August 3rd trade deadline, and if the Twins were offering a prospect they liked now, then why wait? From a Minnesota perspective, the move makes just as much sense. The Twins are looking to strengthen their bullpen for the stretch run, and relief pitching is always in demand around the trade deadline. Nance has shown he can provide reliable middle relief, and because he was pitching in a low-leverage role for Toronto, the Twins were able to acquire a dependable arm without giving up one of their premier prospects. So what exactly are the Blue Jays getting in return? Ryan Sprock isn’t one of the Twins' headline prospects, but he's the type of under-the-radar player Toronto has targeted successfully in the past. Let's take a closer look. Sprock is a 21-year-old catcher (who can also play some 3B and LF). At the plate, his profile is built around contact and strike-zone control. On the season in A-Ball, he’s reached base at a .436 clip, while the zone contact rate was 90% and the swinging strike rate was 5.9%; both would be impressive if they translated to the major league level. Since making the transition to catcher, he’s improved his framing and blocking, and, as a two-way player in college (touching 96 mph), he has a good arm behind the plate. As a bonus, he was just named Florida State League player of the month for June. Including $250,000 in international bonus pool money suggests Toronto identified Sprock specifically rather than taking the best prospect Minnesota was willing to move. The Blue Jays appeared willing to spend additional resources to land a player they believed fit their organizational philosophy. The combination of defensive and contact skills fits the profile of the players Ross Atkins has acquired during his recent tenure. So now what does this mean for the Blue Jays going forward? Well, it's inconclusive. If the Blue Jays were to go into a full-on teardown, starting with Tommy Nance seems like an awkward move. Trading a core veteran such as George Springer, Daulton Varsho, or Kevin Gausman would send a much stronger signal that the organization had shifted into seller mode. What this likely means is that the Blue Jays are trying to walk the fine line between adding to their organizational depth and keeping the big league roster competitive to push for a playoff spot. The balancing act doesn’t come without risk. The Blue Jays bullpen is arguably weaker without Nance than it was with him. Even if John Schneider is right and they can likely get more from the right-handed options further in the depth chart, there is no guarantee they will perform. Here are some of the internal right-handed options the Blue Jays could turn to in Tommy Nance’s absence: Pitcher On 40-Man Roster Shortcoming Chad Dallas Yes Limited experience Lazaro Estrada Yes 5.93 career ERA Chase Lee Yes 8.10 ERA Yimi García Yes Currently injured Yariel Rodríguez No 7.71 ERA Simeon Woods Richardson No 11.61 xERA in Triple-A Tanner Andrews No Limited big league experience CJ Van Eyk Yes Limited big league experience While none of those options is a perfect replacement, the Blue Jays still have enough depth to absorb the loss. Tyler Rogers, Jeff Hoffman, and Louis Varland have stabilized the back end of the bullpen. Rule-5 pick Spencer Miles has been a standout all season, Braydon Fisher has held his own, and the unit as a whole has been impressive; they lead all of baseball with a 3.83 xFIP. As things stand, the Blue Jays’ roster is still unfinished, and more moves are likely before the August 3rd deadline. Ross Atkins has shown he won’t wait until deadline day if an opportunity presents itself. Whether the Blue Jays ultimately buy, sell, or thread the needle, the trade reflects an organization focused on long-term value without sacrificing its chance to remain in the 2026 playoff race. If Ryan Sprock develops into the catcher the Blue Jays believe he can become, this deal may ultimately be remembered less for Tommy Nance’s departure and more as the move that marked the beginning of the Blue Jays’ deadline season. View full article

This wasn’t how this story was supposed to go. The Blue Jays entered 2026 with sky-high expectations, but injuries and disappointing performances from many of the players who fueled last year’s World Series run have left them seven games below .500 approaching the All-Star break. Currently, the Blue Jays find themselves in a precarious spot. Every year, there seems to be one team that catches fire after the All-Star break and storms into the postseason. The Blue Jays have as much talent as any club to be that team. But coming into the Giants series, the Blue Jays' playoff odds had dropped to a season low of 25.2%. While there is no guarantee this team will sell off assets at the trade deadline, the front office has to prepare for that possibility. It's a similar blueprint to the one the Blue Jays followed at the 2024 trade deadline, and they’re already seeing the benefits of that approach. That doesn’t necessarily mean a full rebuild. More likely, the Blue Jays would look to move players on expiring contracts or veterans whose value may never be higher, while targeting prospects or major leaguers who could contribute as early as 2027. If that's the direction the team chooses, some players are far more likely to be dealt than others. Here’s a look at the most realistic trade candidates, broken down by how likely they are to be moved. Blue Jays Most Likely To Be Traded SP Kevin Gausman Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 19 G, 3.76 FIP, 17.8 K-BB%, 1.9 fWAR Gausman will likely go down as one of the best free-agent pitching signings in franchise history, and moving him at the deadline would not be a popular move. However, he’s likely the piece that could get the biggest return. He’s a durable workhorse with recent success in the postseason and immediately strengthens any contender’s rotation. The price for impact starting pitching at the deadline always remains high, and the Blue Jays are almost certain to at least listen to offers on the veteran starter. He does have an eight-team no-trade clause, meaning he’ll have some degree of a say in where he goes if the Blue Jays decide to move him. Still, out of all Toronto's potential trade chips, Gausman will be front and center. CF Daulton Varsho Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 78 G, .313 wOBA, 99 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR Similar to Gausman, Varsho is a free agent at season's end and has plenty of big league success under his belt. Although his numbers have dropped this season, he’s been an outstanding center fielder in his career, and there will always be demand for elite defense up the middle. He exploded for 20 home runs and a .548 slugging percentage in just 71 games last season. A contender in need of left-handed power may believe it can unlock that version of Varsho again, making him an intriguing trade target. OF Myles Straw Team Control: Through 2026 (Club Options Through 2028) 2026 Stats: 80 G, .281 wOBA, 77 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR Speed and elite outfield defense can change a game in a flash, and Straw is excellent at both. His range in the outfield is 84th percentile, and despite just two stolen bases on the season, he still has 97th percentile sprint speed. Any contender looking for late-game speed and elite defense could benefit from having Straw on their team. The Blue Jays have shown a willingness to trade players like this before (they traded Kevin Kiermaier at the 2024 deadline), and if the Jays are willing to eat some of Straw's remaining salary (he's making $7.4M this year), they could fetch a fairly solid return. Blue Jays Trade Candidates Worth Watching DH George Springer Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 63 Games, .304 wOBA, 93 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR Like Gausman, Springer is a free agent at the end of the season and has had tremendous success in the postseason. But unlike Gausman, Springer isn’t playing quality baseball at the moment. The now 36-year-old is having his worst offensive season. He’s a negative on the basepaths and hasn’t played in the outfield in over a calendar year. If a contender believes Springer can rediscover the form that produced a 166 wRC+ in 2025, there may still be a market for him. But unless his play turns around dramatically, finding a trade partner doesn’t seem likely. Especially if you factor in his salary and the fact that he has 10-and-5 no-trade rights. Springer would have to give the go-ahead to any trade proposal that is sent his way. SP Shane Bieber Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 3 Games, 9.34 FIP, 3.1 K-BB%, -0.5 fWAR Shane Bieber returned to the Blue Jays after picking up his player option in the offseason. He spent the first half of the season battling an elbow injury, and upon his return, he’s struggled in all three of his starts. Still, he’s a former Cy Young Award winner, and at 31 years old, should still have something left to offer. The Blue Jays would undoubtedly like to get something for a player they’re unlikely to re-sign this offseason, but no team is going to offer much until he starts pitching better. OF Jesús Sánchez Team Control: Through 2027 2026 Stats: 73 Games, .325 wOBA, 108 wRC+, 0.1 fWAR Sánchez is no stranger to being traded, as he was sent from the Marlins to the Astros at last year's trade deadline, and there is the potential that a move could happen again. Offensively, he’s held his own with a 108 wRC+ and has always produced strong exit velocities. The defense and baserunning limit his overall value, but he has the ability to come off the bench and get an extra-base hit in a key spot. There may be a team willing to move a mid-level prospect for that type of player. RHP Jeff Hoffman Team Control: Through 2027 2026 Stats: 41 Games, 2.72 FIP, 27.2 K-BB%, 0.8 fWAR The Jays would face an interesting decision if another team came calling for Hoffman. On one hand, his underlying statistics have been phenomenal all season, and he’s been pitching well lately. Since the start of June, he’s thrown 13 innings with a microscopic 0.69 ERA, and if a team views him like the shutdown reliever he can be, the Jays could get a sizeable return. However, Hoffman is still under team control through the 2027 season, and unless the team goes into a complete rebuild, the Blue Jays are likely to contend again, and having Hoffman in the bullpen is a key part of that. What the Blue Jays decide to do with Hoffman will be an interesting storyline going into the trade deadline. Blue Jays Probably Staying Put OF Nathan Lukes Team Control: Through 2030 2026 Stats: 57 games, .320 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 0.9 fWAR Lukes’ name is on this list simply because the Blue Jays have a plethora of left-handed hitting outfielders on their roster, and moving one of them could clear up the logjam. But with Lukes under team control for four more seasons and only entering arbitration next year, he’s still an inexpensive player to keep around. Combine that with the fact he’s been playing almost every day and hitting in the top of the order, and it feels like he’ll be staying put. OF/2B Davis Schneider Team Control: Through 2030 2026 Stats: 49 Games, .267 wOBA, 68 wRC+, -0.4 fWAR Schneider has had a disappointing season so far. He was set to be a right-handed-hitting platoon bat but has spent most of the season travelling between Toronto and Buffalo. Still, the trade market doesn’t have many right-handed-hitting outfielders, and Schneider does provide power and plate discipline. He could be a spark off the bench for a postseason team. It's unlikely that the Blue Jays would want to sell low on a player, especially one with so much team control, but there is a chance a suitor comes knocking, and the Blue Jays will have to at least listen. RHP Max Scherzer Team Control: Through 2026 2026 Stats: 6 Games, 8.79 FIP, 2.9 K-BB%, -0.7 fWAR The end may be near for the now 41-year-old eventual Hall of Famer. Scherzer is set to become a free agent at the end of the season, and while there may be some value to having him stick around in the clubhouse for a playoff team, he’s been dealing with injuries and also has not been effective when he’s been on the field. Between his struggles, recurring injuries, and a full no-trade clause, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Scherzer is moved before the deadline. The next three weeks will determine the franchise's direction. If the Blue Jays catch fire, they’ll likely spend the deadline adding to a playoff push. If not, they may have no choice but to begin cashing in expiring contracts, even if they are still within striking distance of a Wild Card spot. View full article

The Blue Jays' struggle to score runs has been a disheartening storyline this season. They're 25th in runs scored, 23rd in home runs hit, and are in the bottom five in SLG%, ISO, and xwOBA. In June, there was a small step forward. They’re still 25th in runs scored, but their 30 home runs were tied for 20th in baseball, and both their SLG% and ISO climbed into the bottom third in the league instead of the bottom sixth. Here are some of the players that helped spark the Blue Jays offensively in June, with one of them being crowned the Jays Centre hitter of the month. Honourable Mentions George Springer Stats in June: .239/.340/.398, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB, 109 wRC+ It's safe to say his 2026 season hasn't been what George Springer envisioned coming into the year. But June was his best month yet. Now well recovered from the toe injury that saw him miss 15 games earlier in the season, it looks like he’s turning things around. His average exit velocity increased to a season-best 88.8 mph this month, which helped him set season highs in hits (21), home runs (3), and OPS (.738), all while taking more walks (12.5% BB%). Add in that he stole three bags as well, and Springer is starting to look like he’s turning a corner. Even if the 166 wRC+ season he put up in 2025 is out of reach, June showed there may still be plenty left in the tank. Brandon Valenzuela Stats in June: .250/.327/.500, 3 HR, 9 RBI, 127 wRC+ Brandon Valenzuela continues to be one of the Blue Jays’ best hitters. Now that Alejandro Kirk has returned, Valenzuela’s playing time has been cut, and that's what prevents him from being higher on this list. But when he’s been playing, he’s been hitting. His 127 wRC+ was second on the Blue Jays for the month. His .827 OPS and 10.9% walk rate also ranked second. The Blue Jays only had three offensive players produce a positive WPA in June, and Valenzuela was one of them, highlighted by a game-winning, go-ahead double in Fenway Park earlier this month. He just keeps getting the job done. 3) Andrés Giménez Stats in June: .301/.342/.425, 1 HR, 6 RBI, 4 SB, 115 wRC+ It hasn’t always been pretty, but Andrés Giménez quietly put together a quality month in June. He was the only Blue Jay to hit over .300 during the month (albeit with a .396 BAPIP), and he has been doing his job setting the table for the top of the order. His 30% line drive rate led the team in June, with his six doubles also leading the Blue Jays during that time. He’s already matched his 2025 home run total (7), and on Friday, he matched last year's RBI total in 17 fewer games. Add in his elite defence at shortstop and the fact that he stole a team-high four bases in June, and Giménez has quietly been a very productive player. He deserves a spot on this list, coming in at number three. 2) Nathan Lukes Stats in June: .292/.344/.449, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 123 wRC+ Another day, another hit for Nathan Lukes. Lukes ended June second on the team in home runs and on-base percentage, and he led the team in hits. He had six multi-hit games and recorded hits in 19 of his 26 games in June He’s been using his all-fields approach and just putting together productive at-bats all month long. He’s turning more into an everyday regular instead of just being in a platoon; he’s started nine games in a row, including two of them against left-handed pitching. Since returning from vertigo on May 25, Lukes has produced a 130 wRC+. Even with an inflated .359 BAPIP, he’s maintained his production, and as a result, he comes in second place. 1) Kazuma Okamoto Stats in June: .286/.353/.560, 7 HR, 20 RBI, 152 wRC+ Where would this Blue Jays team be without Kazuma Okamoto? Kaz was the team leader in virtually every batting stat for the month: home runs, RBI, runs scored, OPS, Win Probability Added, barrels... You name it, he did it. Okamoto was our hitter of the month in May, and his June was even better. His wOBA jumped by 55 points, and his line drive rate was up. The strikeout issue has been a talking point since early in the season, but the third baseman made an improvement in June, and his production at the plate rose with it. He was just named AL Rookie of the Month for June, and more importantly, he is Jays Centre's Hitter of the Month as well. View full article

The Blue Jays have spent the first half of the season chasing one goal. Trying to get above .500 On Thursday evening, they did it again. After falling behind 6-0, the team clawed its way back before ultimately falling one run short. It was another comeback that almost was. They keep fighting their way back to the doorstep; they just haven’t found a way to walk through it. After 81 games, the Blue Jays sit at 39-42, third place in the division, and are in a four-way tie for the third and final wild card spot, even with all the injuries and underperformances from key players on the roster. It's still a spot that very few people around baseball thought the Blue Jays would be at. But before you can become a winning baseball team, you first have to get above .500. The Blue Jays have spent the first half of the season chasing the milestone over and over again. Four different times the Blue Jays have fought their way back to even, and four different times they’ve walked away still searching for answers. Here are the four times they’ve had a chance to do so and what happened: Opening Day, March 27th, (0-0) vs Athletics, 65.2% Playoff Odds This was the only time this season the Blue Jays actually went above the .500 mark, but even then, the warning signs were there. Kevin Gausman struck out 11 over six dominant innings, Andres Gimenez supplied the offence, and Toronto appeared poised for a smooth win on Opening Day. But after handing the ball to Jeff Hoffman with a one-run lead in the ninth, Shea Langeliers tied the game with a home run, the Blue Jays had a blown save, and the team was forced to walk it off in the bottom half The Blue Jays ultimately won the game and, in turn, started the season 1-0. The Blue Jays climbed above .500 for the first time on the season. But even in the victory, the warning signs were there, and as we’d soon find out, it wouldn’t last. Second Attempt: April 5th @ White Sox, (4-4), Playoff odds 51.4% After sweeping the Athletics and losing two of three from the Rockies, the Blue Jays entered the finale of the first road series at 4-4 with an opportunity to climb back above .500 after dropping the first two games in Chicago. The offence never gave the team a chance. The Blue Jays managed just six hits, all singles, went 0-6 with runners in scoring position and were shut out for the first time all season. Eric Lauer allowed three runs over 2+ innings, but the lack of offence proved to be the bigger story as the Blue Jays were swept and fell back below .500. Third Attempt: May 30th @ Baltimore (29-29), Playoff Odds 55.3% It took nearly two months for Toronto to fight its way back to .500, but after series wins against the Pirates and Marlins and taking the first two against the Orioles, the Blue Jays had an opportunity to finally get over the hump. They appeared to do everything right. Trey Yesavage battled through five innings, Kazuma Okamoto and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. helped build a 5-1 lead late, and after Jeff Hoffman struck out the Orioles ' lead-off hitter, the Blue Jays had a 99.4% win probability to get over the hump. Then everything unravelled. Hoffman allowed six straight Orioles to reach base, turning a four-run lead into a tie game before Connor Seabold was called in to try to escape the jam, before Pete Alonso completed Baltimore's stunning comeback with a walk-off single, and yet again the Blue Jays found themselves on the doorstep of .500. Fourth Attempt: June 23 VS Houston, (39-39) Playoff Odds 56.4% Less than a month later, Toronto found itself back at .500 once again. Despite falling behind early in Shane Bieber's season debut, the Blue Jays rallied behind home runs from Luis Urias and Daulton Varsho before Kazuma Okamoto delivered a go-ahead two-run single in the eighth inning. With Louis Varland unavailable, Tyler Rogers was tasked with protecting a two-run lead in the ninth. He couldn’t. The Astros pieced together three singles and benefited from a costly catcher's interference to tie the game. After the Blue Jays couldn’t score with a runner in scoring position in the bottom half, Joey Loperfido’s three-run home run completed another heartbreaking loss. Just like that, the Blue Jays had another blown save and yet again fell below .500. This has been the underlying story of the Blue Jays' 2026 season so far. Kevin Gausman said it best: " It feels like we take four steps forward and two steps back." Since that loss, the Blue Jays have lost their next two games, falling behind again. Every baseball season has its peaks and valleys, but championship teams know how to capitalize when momentum finally arrives. That’s been the difference for Toronto. Every time the Blue Jays have climbed back to the doorstep of a winning record, they’ve stumbled before they could walk through the door. If there’s a reason for optimism, it's that the Blue Jays don’t need to prove they can fight back; they’ve already done that four different times. What the second half will determine is whether they can finally turn those comebacks into sustained momentum. The American League remains wide open. The opportunity is still there. The Blue Jays just can’t afford to let their next chance to get above .500 slip away like their previous four. View full article

It feels like we still need one more high-impact bullpen arm. Antonio Senzatela is my guy

The Blue Jays certainly have a type. On Saturday afternoon, the Blue Jays made a minor trade with the Diamondbacks to acquire infielder Luis Urias in exchange for cash considerations. The move on its own won’t generate a ton of headlines. He has bounced between organizations and is a career .231/.329/.378 hitter over eight big league seasons. Urias had an “upward mobility clause” in his contract, which forced the Diamondbacks to either promote him, release him, or trade him, and the Blue Jays pounced at the opportunity. The Blue Jays' bench has been heavily skewed toward left-handed hitters and outfielders, so the addition of a right-handed hitting infielder doesn't come as much of a surprise. What is surprising, however, is why they chose Urias. Urias has never established himself as a consistent, productive major league hitter. He has an OPS under .700 in each of his last three seasons. He’s in the bottom 20% in the league in sprint speed, and defensively, he’s been a negative in both Outs Above Average (OAA) and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Add it all up, and you can see why the Diamondbacks weren’t willing to give him a spot on their major league roster. The question now becomes, what do the Blue Jays see in Urias that the Diamondbacks don't? The answer may lie in the underlying data. More specifically, the Blue Jays may be betting on a set of underlying skills that look far better than Urias’ traditional numbers suggest. First, Urias made notable changes to his approach in the 2025 season with the Athletics. Prior to that point, he had been known as a patient (or sometimes even passive) hitter. He drew his fair share of walks (career 10.2 BB%), but the approach often came at the expense of impact contact. During that stretch, his line drive rate, average exit velocity, and wOBA all sat below league average. In 2025, however, Urias began making a different kind of contact. Urias’ swing rate stayed relatively inline with his career average, but the amount of contact he was making, particularly on pitches in the zone, skyrocketed. The 91.8% zone contact rate rose by 9.2% over the prior season and by over 7.3% on his career average. That zone contact rate was higher in 2025 than both Bo Bichette (91.7%) and Nathan Lukes (91.0%), who are both relatively well known for their ability to make contact on pitches in the zone. There’s more to hitting than simply making contact; some of the highest contact rate hitters in baseball typically have slower swings. Urias hasn't done that; in fact, he’s started making more contact while also swinging harder. It's a rare combination. The combination of elite zone-contact rates and increased bat speed was a major part of the Blue Jays' offensive identity during their 2025 World Series run. It's exactly the type of skill set the Blue Jays have shown a preference for. Making contact is important, but contact quality matters too. Urias has always been able to hit the ball in the air to the pull side, which adds another layer to his offensive profile. The league-average pull-air rate sits at 16.8%. Urias’ career mark is 19.8%. Hitting the ball in the air to the pull side matters, especially when you're not an exit velocity machine. This chart is from a FanGraphs article from 2023 about wOBA and hit direction based on exit velocity. Urias has never been great at producing elite exit velocity, so when he does get his bat on the ball, hitting the ball to the pull side is going to yield better results. Taken individually, none of these traits is enough to make Urias an impact player. Taken together, however, they paint a picture of the exact type of hitter Toronto has targeted in recent years: a player who controls the strike zone, makes frequent contact, and creates enough bat speed to do damage when he pulls the ball in the air. These are exactly the types of underlying skills teams often target because they tend to stabilise before traditional results do. Part of the reason the Blue Jays bought into Urias is that he’s been keeping up this production in Triple-A so far. On the season, he’s hitting .361/.393/.546. The .367 BAPIP is likely to come down due to regression and making the adjustment to major league pitching, but all of the adjustments he made in 2025 look to be sticking around so far. The zone contact rate is still at an outstanding 92.4%, and while we don’t have public data for bat speed in Triple-A, the 87.3 average EV is slightly higher than the 86.2 EV he had with the A’s in 2025, suggesting that the bat speed is holding firm. The underlying traits help explain why Toronto targeted Urias. Roster construction explains why they moved now. Team needs are a large part of this, too. The Diamondbacks middle infield is set with two all-stars, Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. There wasn’t much of an opportunity for him there, but on the Blue Jays, there was a real need. Down on the farm, the Blue Jays' middle infield options are lackluster. Top prospect Josh Kasevich has just a 94 wRC+ in Buffalo. Arjun Nimmala and JoJo Parker are still too far away to make an impact this season, and there are no other currently healthy middle infielders on the 40-man roster that could help the team. The Blue Jays aren’t asking Urias to save their offence. If they were, he wouldn’t have been available for cash in the first place. Instead, Toronto is betting on a collection of traits that it has consistently valued: elite zone contact, improving bat speed, and the ability to pull the ball in the air. Similar bets have produced mixed results, but the Blue Jays clearly believe Urias is worth the gamble. Whether Urias becomes the next success story remains to be seen, but if nothing else, his acquisition serves as another reminder that the Blue Jays clearly have a type and Urias fits it perfectly. View full article

The Blue Jays expected Alejandro Kirk's return to solve a problem. Instead, it may have created a new one. When the season began, Kirk was on the short list of Blue Jays players the team couldn't afford to lose. He’s a middle-of-the-order bat, a leader in the clubhouse, and one of the best defenders in all of baseball. From 2023 through 2025, only Patrick Bailey had a higher Defensive Runs Above Average (Def) than Kirk. All it took was seven games. Kirk took a foul ball off his thumb, suffering a fracture that sent him to the injured list for the next two months. Because of the injury, the Blue Jays found themselves in a difficult spot. Tyler Heineman was expected to handle most of the catching duties, while Brandon Valenzuela, a rookie who had impressed throughout spring training, was called up to fill the void. The transition to the major leagues is difficult for any prospect, but the challenge is even greater for catchers, who must not only adjust to big league pitching at the plate but also learn how to manage an entirely new pitching staff behind it. Valenzuela was more than ready for the task. Since his debut, Valenzuela has posted a 121 wRC+. His seven home runs are tied for second on the team, and his .792 OPS leads the Blue Jays (as of June 17). Defensively, Valenzuela has been just as impressive. His Defensive Runs Above Average trails only Andrés Giménez on the Blue Jays and ranks among the top five catchers in baseball dating back to Kirk's injury. Baseball Savant loves his glove too. His 4.89-second average pop time is in the 82nd percentile in baseball, he’s in the 90th percentile in caught stealing above average, and his framing has been incredible. Only Dillon Dingler and Adley Rutschman have more catcher framing runs than Valenzuela. Valenzuela's emergence has been noticed by the organization, as when Kirk returned from the injured list, the Blue Jays chose to keep him on the roster, despite his having minor league options, even if it meant the risk of losing Heineman (who is a good defensive catcher in his own right) to waivers or free agency. As a team that values depth and roster control, it wouldn’t have been a shock if they chose to send Valenzuela down instead. The challenge for the Blue Jays wasn't determining whether Valenzuela had played well enough to remain on the roster; he clearly had. The challenge is figuring out what comes next. The simple solution would be to just insert Kirk back into the starting role and have Valenzuela take up the traditional backup catcher job, playing once every four or five days or when Kirk needs a break. The problem with that is that Valenzuela has been too good offensively to take out of the lineup right now: (image from https://thatsball.baby/jays) For a Blue Jays team that is in the bottom 10 in the league in runs scored, wRC+, wOBA, and home runs, it's hard to justify giving one of the best hitters on the team less playing time and expecting the results to get better. There is another factor to consider. For as well as Valenzuela has played so far, he’s still a prospect who needs time to develop at the major league level. Catchers develop differently from other prospects, and the Blue Jays want to be confident that the Kirk-Valenzuela tandem will be their catching tandem of the future. Valenzuela losing reps behind the plate will only slow the evaluation process. With all that said, Kirk remains one of the most important players on the roster. While Valenzuela is still building relationships with Toronto’s pitching staff, Kirk has already established himself as one of the game’s premier defensive catchers. For a team trying to win games now, that familiarity and stability behind the plate carries significant value. As impressive as Valenzuela has been, the Blue Jays still need Kirk in the lineup as often as possible. Finding playing time for both catchers won't be easy. With Heineman now traded to the Angels, the Blue Jays are operating with only two catchers, making lineup flexibility more important than ever. Most teams prefer not to start both catchers on the same day because it limits late-game options and increases the risk of running out of depth if an injury occurs. That reality means Kirk and Valenzuela won't be in the batting order together every day. Still, with the Blue Jays desperately searching for offence, there will be plenty of situations in which John Schneider will be tempted to find a way to fit both bats into the same lineup. The easiest way to get both players into the lineup is to have Valenzuela or Kirk play another position. Recently, John Schneider mentioned that George Springer could see the occasional start in right field, opening the designated hitter spot for one of the two catchers. Valenzuela could also factor in at first base after appearing there 68 times in the minor leagues; he has recently begun taking practice reps at the position again. The good news in all of this is that it is essentially a good problem for the Blue Jays to have. They have too many talented players for not enough lineup spots, so John Schneider can get creative with how he uses his two catchers. Prioritizing Valenzuela doesn’t mean Kirk will see less playing time. Heineman still found his way into 31 games before he was designated for assignment. Taking into account that Valenzuela is a switch-hitter, getting him into the lineup against a tough right-handed pitcher will give the Blue Jays a platoon advantage. In baseball, these things tend to have a way of sorting themselves out. Remember, the Blue Jays were supposed to have too many pitchers for not enough spots, and that hasn’t turned out to be true either. Catchers tend to take on a tremendous amount of wear and tear over the course of the season, so having depth at the position is still incredibly important. But as long as the Blue Jays continue to search for more offence, they’ll need to find ways to get their best hitters into the lineup more often. For the time being, that includes both Alejandro Kirk and Brandon Valenzuela. The challenge for John Schneider is no longer deciding whether Valenzuela belongs in the major leagues. He has already answered that question. The challenge now is finding enough opportunities for one of the Blue Jays’ most productive hitters to stay on the field. Stats updated prior to games on June 18. View full article

Stats updated prior to the Blue Jays' game on Wednesday, June 10. Ernie Clement is doing something that baseball history says shouldn't be possible. The Blue Jays infielder is among Major League Baseball’s hit leaders despite chasing pitches at a rate that would normally prevent a hitter from reaching the top of the leaderboard. Most hitters in today’s game strive to maximize their power: swinging harder, optimizing their launch angles, and focusing on doing damage at the plate. For some players, that plan works well. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have had great careers doing just that. But one of the great things about baseball is that there is more than one way to be productive. Regardless of the situation, Clement has a knack for getting the bat on the ball. So far in the 2026 season, he has continued to do exactly that. Just take a quick look at the MLB leaderboard for hits, and there is Ernie, right near the top: What’s incredibly unique about Clement is that he’s doing it in a way that very few hitters have ever managed successfully. He swings more often than anyone on the Blue Jays and makes more contact than most of his teammates. He doesn’t swing the bat that hard (67.6 mph average bat speed), which results in a low average exit velocity. He doesn’t walk, but he also doesn't strike out; somehow, he just keeps getting hits, and while a .317 BABIP tells some of the story, it's not the whole picture. Jays fans who have watched Ernie play know full well that he swings at almost anything he can reach, so even when a pitcher paints a pitch outside of the zone, he is still able to hit it. It's a skill that very few hitters in baseball possess. These are the 2026 hit leaders on pitches outside of the zone, per Baseball Savant: T-1: Ernie Clement - 27 T-1: Alec Burleson - 27 T-3: Otto Lopez - 24 T-3: Shohei Ohtani - 24 5: Jonathan Aranda - 23 The fact that Clement is near the top of the hits leaderboard isn’t unusual by itself. Every season, someone leads baseball in hits. What's unusual is how he’s getting there. The hitters who typically occupy the top of the leaderboard are disciplined hitters who limit chase and maximize quality contact. Clement is attempting to do it while chasing pitches at a rate rarely seen among baseball’s elite hit collectors. Looking back at every MLB hits leader over the last 12 seasons and comparing them to their chase rates reveals just how unusual his season has been: Ernie Clement's 2026 chase rate entering play on June 9. What Ernie Clement is doing is statistically unheard of in the Statcast era, and history suggests it's unlikely he’ll ultimately finish with the most hits in baseball while chasing this often. Yet, Clement has one skill that allows him to get away with it. When he swings, he simply does not miss. Clement owns a contact rate of 85.7%, which has him in the top 20 in MLB. While most hitters who chase pitches out of the zone rack up strikeouts, Clement consistently finds a way to get the bat on the baseball. The only reason Ernie gets away with it is how often he takes those out-of-zone pitches he swings at and puts them in play, doing so 44.3% of the time. This is where Clement’s path to accumulating hits begins to emerge. Because he rarely draws walks (3.0% BB rate) and strikes out infrequently (10.0% K rate), 87.0% of his plate appearances end with a ball in play. It's a number that ranks second among qualified hitters, behind only Luis Arraez. (You can find the full leaderboard here, updated before games on June 9.) From there its how many of those batted balls turn into hits. And that's where BABIP comes into the picture. On the season, Clement owns a .320 BABIP, meaning that 32% of balls he puts into the field of play have resulted in hits. It also helps that he's on pace for a career-high 17 home runs; home runs aren't included in the calculation of BABIP. High BABIPs are typically driven by elite speed, hard contact, line drives, or an all-fields approach. Ernie doesn’t necessarily excel in any of these categories. His sprint speed sits at 27.9 ft/sec, 66th percentile in the league. His 19.8% line drive rate (per FanGraphs) sits almost exactly at league average. His average exit velocity sits in the bottom sixth percentile in baseball, and if you take a look at his hit chart, it's fairly safe to say that an all-fields approach isn't behind this either. via Baseball Savant If Clement isn’t generating hits through elite speed or elite power, then the question becomes, what is driving his success? The secret lies in his hand-eye coordination. Baseball Savant measures this through a statistic called squared-up rate. In simple terms, it measures how much exit velocity a hitter generates relative to the maximum possible exit velocity, based on their bat speed and the speed of the pitch. On squared-up baseballs this season, hitters have produced a .380 batting average and a .678 slugging percentage. Clement has squared up the ball 35.2% of the time, placing him in the top six percent of all major league hitters. That doesn't tell the whole story, though. Clement seems to have a knack for hitting the baseball where the defenders aren't; this is evident in the difference between his xBA and his actual BA. His xBA, which calculates how likely a player is to get a hit based on launch angle and exit velocity, sits at .258. The 46-point difference between his .258 xBA and his .304 actual batting average suggests Clement has benefited from some favourable results, but it also raises the question of whether traditional models fully capture his unusual contact profile. Leading baseball in hits is often as much about availability as it is talent. The game’s hit leaders don’t just hit well; they’re also in the lineup every day. Ernie has played in 67 of the Blue Jays' 68 games so far. Given the defensive value he provides and his ability to play anywhere in the infield, playing time is unlikely to be a concern, barring injury. History suggests Clement’s approach shouldn’t work this well. Hit leaders typically don't chase this many pitches, and players with his batted ball profile rarely sustain this kind of production. Yet here he is, sitting among baseball’s hit leaders anyway. Whether Ernie Clement ultimately finishes as baseball's hit king is almost beside the point. What makes his season remarkable is that he’s forcing us to reconsider what a modern hitter can look like. If he keeps doing that, his first All-Star appearance may not be far behind. View full article