deanmike

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/cavan-biggio/19252/stats?position=2B#advanced-fielding Numbers agree with your eye test on his OF ability

For some reason, the organization now sees Biggio's OF utility as limited to pretty much RF only. His overall utility (in the view of the organization) is 2B/1B/3B/RF, however I don't even think he should be seeing any OF, and probably 3B too once he most likely shows last season's defensive uptick there was just a SSS mirage.

Chapman was never a special case, confirmed by the Rogers shills. Ohtani/Freeman/Seager type FAs are.

IKF isn't going to be the everyday 3B. Both the team and the Rogers shills around them have been pretty open about both 3B and 2B going to be heavily platoon based this year between all the guys on the roster who could see time at either one, or both of these positions. IKF, Biggio, Turner (1-2 times a week per the team) and Espinal/Clement (whichever one of them makes the 26 man) will mix it up at 3B Schneider, Biggio and Espinal/Clement will mix it up at 2B

KingSarcasm is legit so I actually believe the bolded now. That still doesn't change the fact that 2nd threshold budget denial like this should not be happening. It's real, no more denying it, and Chapman never being interested in coming back doesn't change that it's real.

KingSarcasm just provided clarity through his source, on why Chapman didn't come back. He claimed to know all offseason that Chapman wasn't coming back, but wouldn't specify why until now. This still doesn't change the fact that the 2nd threshold budget coming from ownership is real (barring a special case which Chapman wasn't), and the Jays are projected to be 6.3M under it and Chapman's AAV is 18M. Even if Chapman was open to coming back at this stage in the offseason, they still almost certainly wouldn't have been able to do it according to multiple Rogers shills like Shi/BNS/Zwelling. However, it seems Chapman's mindset was "I would prefer to call almost any ballpark home over the new Rogers Centre."

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/11179-General-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread-(2024)?p=1775211&viewfull=1#post1775211 See "Door B"

Don't worry, most of the ones who didn't know, or knew but tried to deny it anyway have been called out directly already by me and others.

You must be mistaken if you think I am an Atkins defender. I am just a context provider.

Wow I didn't even realize Shi Davidi said this shortly before Chapman signed: With me and others OFFICIALLY being right about the whole 2nd threshold relating to the Jays non-Ohtani 2024 budget thing, I need to be honest about something... Since the Chapman news broke, I've been getting a lot of credit like "pour yourself a tall one Dean" and whatnot, that I feel is underserved. It's not like I was even the first one on this message board to figure it out. This all started when I responded to an L54 post after the KK signing, saying something about him making 25% of the budget, Frenchsoup responded asking how he knows that it's 25% of the budget, and I responded to Frenchsoup showing the math on it (because to me and clearly L54 it was always obvious that the 2nd threshold was very relevant to this season's budget). I was just continuing to post the most about it afterward to try and provide what I thought was helpful context to other posters who may not have been aware before. Seems many did not want to hear the truth, and actively tried to believe lies instead, to desperately continue trying to defend that ******** Atkins. Point is though, credit should actually go to L54 for first bringing the 2nd threshold issue to the attention of this board. YOU pour yourself a tall one buddy.

Hypothetical Pivot Scenario (since it's been widely expected the Giants would explore a JD Davis trade if they got Chapman) Jays trade Espinal to the Giants for JD Davis (BTV surplus value gain of 4.3 for Atkins, not quite the 5+ he almost always gets but not egregiously below). Jays remain under the 2nd threshold post trade since they're roughly 6.3M below it now (assuming Vogelbach makes the team) and the AAV swap of Espinal/Davis is less than that. C Jansen/Kirk 1B Vlad 2B Schneider 3B Davis SS Bichette LF Varsho CF Kiermaier RF Springer DH Turner Bench: Biggio, Vogelbach, IKF Thoughts?

https://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/10602-General-Blue-Jays-Discussion-Thread-(2023)?p=1769253&viewfull=1#post1769253 I posted this on January 8 about Chapman. The smoke has been there for a while. Also Chapman's AAV being only 18M means there wouldn't have been nearly as much AAV clearing required among the names discussed (Garcia/Richards/Espinal/Biggio/Vogelbach) to bring him back and remain under the 2nd threshold.

Stop hiding and post this from your main account instead of burner

These "highlights" are missing the most important part of the Chapman discussion that ocurred. The answer to "should/could the Jays re offer the QO" ended up being a pretty resounding no. BNS and Zwelling re-iterated that the Jays don't have enough under the 2nd threshold to outright sign Chapman. Zwelling makes a jab right after (directed at the casuals who know nothing about the budget, act like they do, and don't even care to educate themselves), saying "Espinal's 2.725M isn't quite the level of subtraction required that Atkins was referring to." On this board we haven't had much of this level of defiance of reality, but off board the casual takes have been staggeringly bad. They also do clarify though that in special cases the FO can make a case to ownership to go over budget if it's for the right move. Outlined examples of past FO targets like Ohtani/Freeman/Seager. They make an added clarification after: "Chapman is not one of those special cases." Time for the people who were trying to wish Chapman being a special case into existence to pick between the realistic Door A/B scenarios I provided for their pivot opinions.

You seem like you were the type of kid in school who got his/her/their head dunked in toilets

It's become blatantly obvious that all the Rogers Sportsnet guys who cover the team do now, is tow the Jays company line. So that's how I'm going to refer to them.

Pretty much this, they have basically outright said before that they would prefer to carry 14 arms if they had the choice.

Rogers mouthpieces are starting to ramp up the narrative that Bowden Francis maybe earning a rotation spot out of camp, is one of the sneaky storylines of spring. Interesting timing, because all I was seeing from the Rogers mouthpieces up until after Manoah's first spring start was it's still Manoah's job to lose. I swear one of the mouthpieces even threw out some crazy hyperbole like "Mitch White would have to allow only 1 run in spring to take Manoah's rotation spot" The mouthpieces also seem to have finally realized Clement is out of options, so they are finally starting to respect him as a possible 26-man guy to start the season. I think if the Jays don't end up needing to move Espinal's 2.7M to clear AAV for another add, they might just option him to Buffalo to start the season and Clement takes his roster spot to avoid losing him for nothing. Unless of course, the pseudo-vet treatment for arb guys with options is a real thing.

The Jays are gonna be pissed about this lol They already hate the 13 pitcher maximum to the point where I almost wonder if their refusal to use the 13th position player on the roster since the 13 pitcher rule was implemented is a silent protest to the existence of the rule.

The expected winning percentage is the same just applied differently by the different sites I think. ESPN likely rounded up to 95 because a .586 pythag winning % is roughly 94.9 wins in 162 games. MLB.com likely rounded down because 94.9 is factually less than 95 wins, the pythag record itself can be interpreted slightly different. Personally I round up to 95 because 94.9 is close to 95, and their actual win total was higher than 95. Edit: Nevermind glossary says different exponents of choice are used (and apparently Baseball Reference has their own pythag record too, maybe its better than both ESPN and MLB.com)

https://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/year/2023/sort/expWinPct This list could be wrong but it's the one I was going off of, says 95-67 here

Their pythag record was 95-67 last season, so they only overperformed it by 6 wins, They also had the 5th best pythag record in baseball, with only 3 teams having 100+ win pythag records last season (Braves/Dodgers/Rays). I guess if you consider that "not even close"...

Correct me if I'm wrong or misread, but I'm pretty sure Espinal would make the same salary even if the Jays option him because he's an arb player Could end up being like BNS favourite trade proposal he loved to throw around this offseason: Espinal to any team for cash considerations

That projection has them missing the playoffs lol (best AL team to miss to be exact). Seems projected record on there is just based on projected run differential and Jays projected for the 6th best RD in the AL, but the AL Central winner projects for the 7th best RD in the AL so basically Fangraphs thinks Jays are missing the playoffs. West: Astros +97 East: Yankees +79 Central: Twins +34 WC1: Rays +53 WC2: Mariners +43 WC3: Orioles +40 Jays +35 More optimistically, Fangraphs projected team WAR totals has the Jays as 2nd best in the division, 3rd best in the AL. So maybe that's the Fangraphs projection you optimists should cling to.