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jmomcc

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Everything posted by jmomcc

  1. jmomcc
    The astros won a World Series and are the team to go to find someone to run your front office. This is like 2/3 years after there were stories about free agents not wanting to go there. Credibility means nothing in other words. The players that would be blocked by free agents are guys like Hernandez. His 5% chance of being an above average cost controlled regular is more important than a free agent who will be being paid more fairly and would decline more quickly.
  2. jmomcc
    I would rather give Hernandez or McKinney those at bats. I see the point with Morton.
  3. jmomcc
    You lose the ability to give all those plate appearances to marginal dudes and thus make a decision on them and decide if they could be a regular. It's a real low key thing but I think its useful in terms of winning down the road. I think you could do what you are saying but it's not as optimal imo.
  4. jmomcc
    I have to see 20 more games of Vlad and Jansen hitting ground balls and I'm going to start blaming our new hitting coach.. lol. I know that's crazy but Jansen looks so different its worrisome.
  5. jmomcc
    What's the point of signing decent vets on free agent contracts though? Is it just to make watching the jays this season more fun? I'd guess letting guys like Teoscar and Drury play (and whoever fits that bill next year) is more likely to lead to winning teams when we plan to be good. One hit gives you a cost controlled regular. Also, the good thing about letting these guys play is that a whole season gives you plenty of sample size to cut bait, and give new guys a chance, thus increasing the chances of landing one or two cost controlled regulars. I'll be pissed if they sacrifice that to be slightly better in the short term.
  6. jmomcc
    Are these free agents still going to be good when we are expected to be good? Otherwise, I'd rather just cycle through some more slop and see what cheap gems can be had. It obviously depends on the free agents of course.
  7. jmomcc
    A rebuilding process isn't supposed to be entertaining. It's supposed to be pretty s***** and you half check out until they are good again. Only maniacs are watching these games at all. I totally agree on the 'let the kids play' thing. These games are basically free. There is no expectation to win. Anyone who is marginal but could be a guy under the best case scenario should play, any vet who will have trade value should play and kids who might be on the next good team should play. The only guy who I thought was a waste of time was Sogard.. but now he turns out to be the second coming of Ted Williams so maybe he is tradeable.
  8. jmomcc
    I thought Solarte was a bet that bust but had some logic behind it. They thought he had a great contract, could help now and because of the contract could be traded later for more than Olivares if he performed as expected. They lost all ways but I think it was a decent idea. I do remember being surprised it was Olivares because I saw somewhere that he was listed as a potential riser on the jays system.
  9. jmomcc
    I would give them a pretty long leash because they didn't really get to start the rebuild until 2018 and weren't allowed to tear it down when they could have got maximum value. I also kind of see the sense in the decisions they make in terms of the guys they are making bets on. I also find the idea of the cleveland way (where they seemed to make a habit of getting pop up international guys and could develop pitching) being applied to a larger market. So, I lean favorable anyway. I'd give them a few more years.
  10. jmomcc
    I have to say, a guy like Carroll (especially in the juiced ball era) sounds like a great pick.
  11. jmomcc
    He hasn't played enough to show flaws to work on. Once he is settled in as a major leaguer.. (let's say like 20 games), then maybe start trying to adjust. Right now, it would probably be counter productive. He could be just pressing a little, getting squeezed a little, and finding gloves with hard hit balls. A few of those go on and his approach will reset to his normal approach which he is already quite close to.
  12. jmomcc
    I notice Groshans isn't playing either doubleheader game today. Anyone know what's up? Chavez Young hasn't played in a few either.
  13. jmomcc
    Yea, there needs to be a b in his name for that to work. You can’t just stick any word at the end.
  14. jmomcc
    I feel like it’s been mentioned a few times that he isn’t hitting. And, yes I always hold my sides laughing when a blue jays prospect isn’t playing well.
  15. jmomcc
    I’m guessing Sanchez, Stroman, smoak are available for arms who are closeish. I wonder who we could get? What teams need arms and what teams would be in for smoak? I see a lot of looking at prospect lists of random teams in my future lol.
  16. jmomcc
    Yea, no argument on that.
  17. jmomcc
    ‘At least one run’ was exactly what I was trying to say but failing spectacularly lol. My extension to that would be there must be other times when win expectancy is increased by increasing the possibility of scoring at least one over maximizing run expectancy. It would be interesting to know what they are.
  18. jmomcc
    Yes, I think so. Or, If there is a situation where the possibility of scoring 1 increases, the possibility of scoring multiple decreases and the possibility of scoring none stays the same or roughly the same? Or even something like the possibility of scoring 3 or more really decreases a lot with bunting but not 1/2.
  19. jmomcc
    That wasn’t quite the question I was asking though. I was wondering if there were situations where scoring one run is more likely if you bunt but scoring 3 or more runs is way less likely. I don’t think run expectancy really tells you that. I guess the most pure example would be, if it’s the bottom of the ninth and you need one run to win. Would your win expectancy rise if you bunted the guy to third even if your expected runs fell?
  20. jmomcc
    Expected runs are the average amount of runs scored in that situation?
  21. jmomcc
    Just because the likelihood of success is extremely low doesn’t mean it is zero as implied by ‘warm bodies’.
  22. jmomcc
    I can think of some scenarios where I think it would make sense to sacrifice bunt... but that’s just my intuition. For example, with a 4 run lead in say the 6th, I would put more utility in getting one more run than maximizing my chance to get many more runs. That’s because to me the bunt increases the chance of one but decreases the chance of 2/3/4. That’s my instinct. Is there a way to figure out if that is a good idea?
  23. jmomcc
    Armchair psychology! Lol.
  24. jmomcc
    Alford has 3 walks today which could be the start of a turnaround, lol. Also, Kevin smith is slumping.
  25. jmomcc
    So, why have them at all on a rebuilding team? There shouldn’t be anyone on the roster who’s only upside is decent bench player at this point.
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