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Severino is probably not a good contract but that's a relative term. He's like 30% of oakland's payroll next year. He would be 10% of ours. The whole point of being a big market team is taking 'bad contracts' because we can afford to. The only contracts generally that are majority good deals are either minimum, arbitration or early extensions. That's it. Also, because we are a big market team we can use money as well as prospects to make deals. And there are less teams able to use money, so therefore it is a softer market. Severino should be cheaper therefore than someone like kellar, even after factoring difference in performance. Also, he does have some factors that make him attractive. If our stuff model is similar to the public ones, then he does have pretty good stuff. 108 stuff+. 104 fastball, 95 sinker, 94 cutter, 92 change and a 131 slider that he barely throws. He's also barely lost any velo. Its not hard to look at that and see potential. And it should be cheap.

Possibly but that's basically all that is available anyway. And then there's stuff to work on over the offseason.

Yea, marlins, As, cleveland maybe are teams that really value control and close to the show. I'd do anything close to that deal plus 30% even, and honestly do that and severino. Two starters for next year as well.

He seems to just not throw many sliders any more and stuff plus loves that pitch. I'd like to know why he stopped.

My immediate reaction to this is yes yes yes do it now. Probably means its too light.

If someone looks at Jax and thinks he could be a starter next year...? Might be worth it. He is nasty. I still want Severino. The contract makes him gettable and he could be a top 3 guy for us pretty easily imo.

Listening to rates and barrells. Eno was saying starter the main thing and thinks our rotation is our big weakness. Thinks we should try to trade guys who came up to majors this years and showed something while they are hotter commodities. Presumable excluding barger.

Any data on how he handles velocity? That was something fangraphs said he might struggle with in the majors because of his swing mechanics.

Any rumour what the full trade would look like? Cherington is rumoured to be fired soon.

I'd put manoah in the pen to start. Two innings relief.

Dodgers have so much pitching injured. I'd try to figure out if they do have a 40 man crunch coming and if we can grab someone with options.

I'd agree with this. Go hard on the bullpen. If anything they should dfa green. The others have options.

Kellar is a good contract obviously and he probably starts a playoff game for us but i'm not sure he is that far ahead of say bassitt as people generally think. He also would probably replace Lauer in the rotation, who is performing really well. It might allow you to leave berrios off a playoff roster? Also some signs of subtle decline. Velo is down just over a tick on the fastball and sinker over the last two years. Stuff+ numbers are correspondingly down. 2023 seems like a real high water mark for him. Seems like more of a move for next year more than this? If we are willing to do this and get bednar, and a couple of other bullpen arms, that's good though.

Roden as a 50FV left fielder is such an interesting profile. Like, i'd expect a power hitter with that profile. I've had him in my mental bucket of 'we are trading this dude to the As' for a while.

Yea but that means he less surplus value so the price should be cheaper, right? So, yea obviously the astros were more down on bloss than fangraphs.

The only problem is that we don't know how the front offices value the players. like the kikuchi trade last year, if you go by how fangraphs rated our return on the astros list, they way way overpaid compared to kikuchi's surplus value. But in reality maybe we had bloss as a 45+ rather than a 50. If the current fangraphs prospect rankings are correct, we could get alcantara for something like roden, rojas, wagner. That seems light though.

this is a cool video. It shows you basically how to calculate surplus value and then use that to create realistic trade packages.

I think i'd be willing pay a good price for Alcantara. His stuff is still great. Ryan as well. After that, i'd be ok with a medium price for severino. Then, i'd drop way down to the rental back end section. The charlie morton/tyler mahle zone. As i said before also, someone smarter than me needs to look at the dodgers 40 man situation. There almost has to be a pitcher they would be willing to deal that could be a 6th starter for us. The bullpen is doable. I think you could really improve the bullpen, and if you can't get a top starter, maybe also get a real deal leverage reliever as well.

Hems under contract year for 35m payroll/25m luxury tax. Then club option in 2027.

Yea, which is why rounds 6-10 are often underslot. The thing i always find funny is the small differences. Like, why does one guy get 2.5k and another 5k.

They were talking today on effectively wild about research on international signings and they said that basically there is no correlation between bonus size and success rate. We tend to give out big bonuses and should probably stop.

You can go below that. You see 2.5k, 5k, 7.5k pretty regularly. I think i saw 1k once. It does count towards the pool to my knowledge.

Looking at the rental reliever market, there is decent depth there. I think you could grab a long relief, and then a couple of 7th inning types like sewald and have a better pen. Also, looking at the starting pitching... unless you are getting joe ryan or degrom, there are a lot of guys that aren't that great. Like more third playoff starter judged by their stuff numbers and underlying stuff. Like Lugo for example. I'd prefer scherzer and gausman start playoff games over him. Would there be anything to paying a steepish price for someone like griffin jax who has nasty stuff. Then have him, hoffman, and garcia for leverage. Then guys like sewald, little, fisher, rodriquez down a rung, then long relief (i like milner from texas). Then, you can run openers in front of berrios and maybe bauer? And also sign one back end starter. Basically make the deadline priority a drastically better pen. The dodgers also have pitching injured. If they have guys coming back, you could grab one of their young guys with options. That would be expensive. One reliever with options and nasty stuff is Holderman. Nasty stuff but bad control. Stick him in triple A and work on it and see if he can help when rosters expand. An interesting guy for next year is dustin may. His stuff numbers have completely fallen off in his walk year. But, i'd do a speculative free agent signing on him. My favourite for starting pitching at the deadline is still severino. I'm kind of unsure we would want that contract maybe.

Absolutely no data to judge this on but i feel like spreading the money around is a better international strategy. I hope we don't trade Rojas because he gives off real 4/5th starter for the jays as soon as next season vibes. With maybe more.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45709418/mlb-draft-2025-kiley-mcdaniel-recap-analysis-all-30-teams Worth a read. He seems to like a lot of our picks. Looks like other than Spencer there are another couple of senior pitchers he likes as well.