Ray

Cal Stevenson is very quickly becoming one of my favourite guys to follow in our system on a daily basis.

That's great news. Stroman has to be the best starter on the market right now, and theres' a huge glut of contenders desperate for a good SP. Keep driving up that price. Maybe we can convince AA to give us Drew Waters and Kyle Wright for Stroman.

I legitimately believe that this front office would actually PREFER to sign Stroman to a long term deal over trading him. Given the need this team has for pitching, locking down a #3 SP for the foreseeable future would go a long way into helping this rebuild. Plus, look at where Atkins and Shapiro come from. The Indians are known for locking down pitchers to team friendly deals as soon as they possibly can, and that was when they had a bottom 5 payroll to work with. The fact that they've come to this market which has a significantly larger budget should afford them the luxury to extend players to lesser team friendly deals and absorb more risk to take on the potential reward (i.e. the Grichuk extension). I don't believe for a second that they want to trade him due to him mouthing off on Twitter or whatever antics he gets up to. I think his off-field stuff is a complete non-factor. What I do think is a factor is Stromans asking price. It might be so outrageously high that it doesn't even make sense to get in the same room since the numbers are so far apart.

No team bases their decisions soley on what models tell them, but I can guarantee you they do put a large amount of emphasis to gather as much information as they can. At least the 2 that I talked to when I interviewed with them. I generally agree though. The upside with Stroman is worth the risk, especially if he starts throwing more of his secondaries. wIf this front office doesn't want to give Stroman $75M over 5 years, they should take a ton of blame. If Stroman is asking for a Patrick Corbin type contract though, I can understand why they're hesitant.

Correlation doesn't imply causation, but every front office has different models that take every aspect of a player into account when they are considering extensions/free agents. That's one of the primary ways they assess future performance. In this case, they'll likely use a discount factor since the sample size is small, but within that dataset, the track record is still not great. You apply general aging curves to the already short stature he has, and Stroman is fighting an uphill battle to be valuable into his 30's. I'm in the camp where they should absolutely sign him to an extension considered fair for both sides, but if his ask is well over that number, then it doesn't really make sense.

Aging well isn't just about performance. It's also about health and making sure the player can actually stay on the field to provide said value. This is especially true in the case of starting pitchers. Give me the list of Starting Pitchers 5 feet 11 and under who didn't completely fall apart when they entered their 30's. Seriously. It's a very very short list (no-pun intended) and absolutely something to consider when handing out a large extension. Tim Lincecum - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - fell apart at the 1000 inning pitched mark Fernando Valenzuela - 5′ 11″ 170lbs - 31 WAR from ages 19-27, 3.1 WAR from ages 28-34. Kris Medlan - 5′ 11″ 190lbs - consistently injured past age 29 (despite being a reliever) Travis Wood- 5′ 11″ 175lbs - 839 IP (mostly as a starter) from age 23-28, absolutely fell apart afterwards Obviously some of those guys aren't close to Stroman's level, but some are, and Lincecum is especially a cautionary tale that comes to mind (and he was significantly better than Stroman). Pedro is really the only guy who held up from ages 30 and on. The track record isn't great. Cueto and Colon as well, albeit those guys have very large frames.

Seems like the type of guy we should be taking flyers on during a rebuilding phase

Kirilloff and Graterol for Giles and Stroman kind of makes sense if you look at in terms of a value proposition. According to Fangraphs, Kirilloff is a 55 FV prospect and Graterol is a 50 FV prospect. Using Fangraphs prospect valuation chart, that means Kirilloff is worth $46M and Graterol is worth $21M. So that means you're getting back $67M in prospect value. If you can project Giles to be worth 2.5 WAR in the next 1.5 years (possible given his career average), Stroman would have to provide 5 WAR in the next season and a half to really be worth that package at $9M/1 WAR (which is also pretty possible). Not to mention whatever value they end up providing for the 2 postseasons as well, so you might be able to get a 40 FV guy like Gonsalves back in the deal as a throw in.

Nate Pearson filth

Unbelievable catch by Aaron Hicks to end the game. Heartbreaker for the Twins.

And now the Twins tie it again! Fun game. I can't imagine how the fans are feeling though.

This is exactly why I think the Twins are the team to trade Giles (and maybe Stroman) to. It's not everyday that a team has the offense they currently do, let alone a smaller market team. They are a couple pieces away from being legitimate World Series contenders. Leverage that.

This Twins/Yankees game is insane.

BleacherReport has posted some hypothetical Stroman trades: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2846395-potential-trade-packages-and-landing-spots-for-mlb-star-marcus-stroman?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter#slide5 If the Padres or the Twins actually offer that, accept, and then hang up the telephone.

I still think we could end up getting a 40-45 FV guy for him, which isn't nothing (and you never know who's gonna pan out). Yonathan Daza for Smoak and maybe a reliever like Hudson? Daza apparently has a 70 arm, 65 field, and has intriguing enough minor league numbers.

The Rockies literally just added Yonder Alonso to be their 1B. Potential Justin Smoak destination? Also, they ended up DFA’ing Seung Hwan Oh (trade him for Forrest Wall)

Ian Kennedy for Kyle Muller is pretty outrageous.

I'm not sure why they would keep him on the 40-man all these years if the end result was just going to be a DFA. Seems a bit of a waste. Sure during the actual seasons, he was mostly kept on the 60-day DL's so it didn't count for much, but that was a legitimate 40-man spot wasted during the offseason. One that could've been used on someone else. Not to mention, there's some legitimate 40-man fodder that could easily be DFA'd without any severe consequence to make room for him (Derek Law?). And I'd rather give Pompey an extended look than someone with options. Just seems like terrible roster management from the outside looking in.

Also, I hope they consider taking back some dead weight soon to be expiring contracts if it increases the return in prospect capital.

I'm holding firm at Deivi Garcia + Clint Frazier as a starting point for Stroman if I'm Atkins. Make Cashman pay more for inter-divison. Tons of other suitors in the Twins, Astros, Brewers, Braves, Phillies otherwise.

Kevin Smith with a heartbeat. Since June 22nd: 17 games, .311/.362/.738, 208 wRC+ Still sporting a really high 33.3% k-rate during that hot streak though.

Brewers lose Brandon Woodruff to an oblique injury. Sucks for them, but great for us as it opens another big player for Stroman.

Philip Clarke has been mashing down in Vancouver. .333/.412/.511, 5K, 5BB May end up being a steal out of the 9th round.

You would think, but he hasn’t really been ranked in many Top 100 lists despite being drafted fairly high. And he’s ranked #5 in Fangraphs list in a pretty meh Phillies system. I’m just saying. I think he’s gettable as a 2nd piece. Especially if Philly is desperate enough.

I do like Hasely quite a bit. I think he’ll hit for sure, but not entirely sure about his defense. Fangraphs likes him enough to think he can be a perennial 3 WAR guy. If that’s his floor, I wouldn’t mind him as a secondary piece.