Ray

Jays also interested in Ryu and Keuchel, as per Morosi on MLB Network Radio.

4-seamer Wheeler: .285 xWOBA, 96.8 mph avg, 2341 rpm spin, 13.1 inches of vertical drop, 10.5 inches of horizontal break Cole: .243 xWOBA, 97.1 mph avg, 2530 rpm spin, 10.9 inches of vertical drop, 11.4 inches of horizontal break Slider Wheeler: .298 xWOBA, 91.2 mph avg, 2386 rpm spin, 26.2 inches of vertical drop, 2.1 inches of horizontal break Cole: .217 xWOBA, 89.2 mph avg, 2622 rpm spin, 31.8 inches of vertical drop, 4.9 inches of horizontal break Changeup Wheeler: .297 xWOBA, 89.0 mph avg, 1771 rpm spin, 24.1 inches of vertical drop, 12.4 inches of horizontal break Cole: .240 xWOBA, 88.6 mph avg, 1870 rpm spin, 22.9 inches of vertical drop, 15.3 inches of horizontal break Curveball Wheeler: .210 xWOBA, 80.7 mph avg, 2647 rpm spin, 54.1 inches of vertical drop, 8.1 inches of horizontal break Cole: .252 xWOBA, 82.6 mph avg, 2901 rpm spin, 55.6 inches of vertical drop, 11.7 inches of horizontal break Just writing that out, it's quite obvious Cole is better by most every pitch, but there's a good Cole-esque pitcher hiding in Zack Wheeler somewhere. Mets also had him inexplicably throw as many sinkers as 4-seamers in 2019 despite one being vastly superior to the other. The real danger with Wheeler is the injury risk, but I guess the positive there is he doesn't as many miles on his arm either.

Mets are looking to move their bad contracts. I would love to be able to get Dominic Smith for nothing if we’re willing to give some salary relief to the Mets.

After the non-tender deadline, the Blue Jays have the 2nd lowest committed payroll in all of baseball ($69.3 million) behind only the Marlins ($65 million). Lower than the Rays ($70M), Pirates ($71M), Orioles ($80M), and Royals ($85M).

CJ Cron vs. lefties in 2019 (143 PA): .326/.385/.636, 11 HR Could be a cheap platoon option for 1B.

Sanders wasn't in the organization in 2016 when we drafted Bichette and Biggio. That's looking like a great draft that could get even better if Zeuch becomes anything.

Another big blow to our front office. Steve Sanders (head of amateur scouting) is leaving the Jays to go to Pittsburgh with Cherington. Really sucks. Our amateur drafts were great under him.

Great potential in the rotation as well. Luis Castillo 1, Sonny Gray 2, Trevor Bauer 3. They need to fill that hole at short however.

Definitely didn't see Moustakas at that much. MLBTR had him pegged at 2/20, Fangraphs had him at 3/36. The free agent market has picked back up a bit this year, it seems.

Mike Moustakas to the Reds on a 4 year deal.

It'd be nice to add someone on the position player side without a level of volatility attached to them for once. We already have enough of those types on our 40-man. Yeah, you could add Travis Shaw and hope he bounces back .....or just add Mike Moustakas who's pretty much guaranteed to give you at least 2.5 fWAR barring injury and will only cost money, which we have more than enough of. Consistent production is what this team desperately needs more of.

There's at least 3 relievers I'd rather have than Derek Law on that list. Did anyone else know HOU's payroll stands at $221M right now (including arb estimates)? Very little chance that Sanchez back up on that team, imo.

Free agents aside, what other pitching trade candidates are interesting?

We likely would've had to offer $40M and 4 years to actually get him? That's more money than I care to spend on a guy who only posted an ERA+ greater than 100 twice in his 7 seasons. He was attractive at 3/30, but that's kind of the upper limit for him. If we're going to be spending $40M anyways, I'd rather use that to shell out $52M to Keuchel. Similar vein pitcher in terms of giving up a lot of hits, but he's had a long track record of doing well despite that. Gibson, not so much.

I liked Kyle Gibson mainly because of the surplus value he could've provided on his MLBTR projected contract (2 years, $18M). I don't think I would've gone any higher than say, 3 years and $27M. Friedman is right when he says " “If you’re always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent.”. Kyle Gibson is not worth avoiding rationality for, however.

Detroit gets 1st shot to claim him, then the Royals, then us. I'd say we have a good shot.

I'd be open to adding Villar and shifting Cavan to 1st. Villar can move around and play the OF too. Seems like a guy the Jays should be adding. We had a hilariously bad team OBP last season.

With Gibson off the board, I'd like to take a run at Keuchel. Projected at 3 years, $39M by MLBTR and still projected at 2.7 fWAR next season. There's still ample enough starting pitching to improve the team. Gibson seemed like a good value buy, but I'd be happy with Keuchel and Pineda.

Padres are paying Pomeranz more in millions than Pomeranz actually pitched elite relief innings last year.

I like Pomeranz as a reliever, but that's a lot of money for a guy with a half season sample of being successful.

I’m surprised the Padres gave up on Urias

That may be true, but I'd still rather have him on our 40-man than say, Sam Gaviglio or Jason Adam, especially if the acquisition cost is low enough.

It might be that what I think Pivetta could be is clouding my judgement on what his true value is. If we could get Pivetta for McKinney or any of our surplus outfielders, I would definitely do it.

The thing that's odd about his 4-seam profile is that on paper, it's not that far off from Verlanders: Verlander: 94.6 mph average, 10.7 inches of vertical drop, 10.1 inches of horizontal break, 2577 rpm spinrate Pivetta: 94.6 mph average, 12.8 inches of vertical drop, 9.9 inches of horizontal break, 2340 rpm spinrate Verlander's fastball isn't as dominant as one might think (.330 wOBA against in 2019), but obviously he manages to make it work. It's not like Verlander throws a changeup either to get lefties out. His curveball/slider is just that dominant. Whatever the problem is with Pivetta (pitch sequencing like you mentioned or maybe something else), I think the potential reward more than justifies the risk. I'd call the Phillies and see if they'd be willing to do Pivetta+ for Giles.

Nick Pivetta is so interesting. 95 mph, avg 4-seam velocity, 66th percentile fastball spin 92 percentile curveball spin In 2018, his curveball had a .215 xWOBA and slider had a .260 xWOBA. The inches of drop/vertical and horizontal movement on his 4-seamer, curveball, and slider all break well above average. He should've had a much better season in 2018 than his stats indicated. 3.80 FIP and 3.42 xFIP in 2018, but let down due to horrendous Phillies defense. The one glaring issue is, he's missing a true changeup against to get lefties out.