Ray

Good get for Seattle. Wonder what they gave up

Lourdes's cryptic comment on that IG post too.....interesting

He's broken Jays signings in the past well before anyone else: Semien signing, Yimi Garcia signing, Berrios extension. He has legit sources, but just gonna have to wait to find out.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa OAA at shortstop in 2021: 4th percentile.

We had 32 starts made throughout the season between guys like Trent Thornton, a wild Nate Pearson, Tanner Roark, Anthony Kay, TJ Zeuch, & Tommy Milone. That will be hopefully replaced by a full season of Berrios (that is massive), and 12 more starts of Manoah. Gausman and Ray project for the same value. Same with Kikuchi and Matz. The rotation is actually in a better spot than 2021 because it's solidified for the entire season (knocking on wood that no one gets injured). Hopefully Springer gives us a full season. For all of Biggio's faults, he's still projected to be a 2 WAR guy next season. We don't have to replace 7 WAR by Semien. It's probably closer to even than most people think. Not too worried either, because I think a big bat is coming, but even if it isn't, I'm quite happy with the roster we have. An impact bat would just send us over the top.

I'm pretty sure he's just going to be making league min. The "major league" deal portion of it just means that he's guaranteed a 40-man roster spot to open the season (unless he's released or DFA'd).

Perfectly fine 5th starter with upside. Rotation is set now. Let’s get an infielder and go.

We also get a couple extra roster spots for April (I think 28?) If he’s good, keep him. If he’s trash, you can easily release him. Minor league peripherals are really intriguing.

Kershaw back to the Dodgers on a 1 year deal.

Rule 5 draft cancelled this season Another season to figure out if Samad Taylor and Joey Murray are good.

Seems like a pretty strong offer, all things considered.

What a pretty swing by Manuel Beltre. Sounds impactful too. Hard to believe he’s only 18. Super excited to see his progress this year. Yhoangel Aposte looks good too.

Teoscar is also training with Vladdy, and he’s looking great: Teoscar Hernández (@elchino242) • Instagram photo WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 5,505 likes, 42 comments - elchino242 on February 27, 2022: "Rodéate de personas que te ayuden a descubrir todo el potencial que dentro de ti se encuentra🙏🏽💪🏽🙌🏽 #Diosprimero#fortunatrainingfacility @josefortunaafit @vladdyjr27". I know people here wanted to sell high on him this offseason, but I think he’s going to have a monster season and get even better. He had another season of cutting his K-rate and increasing his contact while maintaining his power numbers for the most part. I’m predicting somewhere around a .950 OPS. Hope they can get something done with him this offseason. Maybe somewhere in the neighbourhood of $70M-$80M over 5-6 years makes sense for both sides.

Bring Freeman home!

Vladdy is in incredible shape: Instagram WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

So we're ranked anywhere from 5th (Law) to 19th (Baseball-America) to 21st (Kiley). Still waiting on Fangraphs Farm System rankings, but there is a clear outlier here.

If you offer Vlad $350M over 13 years when the lockout ends, does he take it?

Keith Law Jays Top 20: 1. ⁠Gabriel Moreno, C 2. ⁠Orelvis Martinez, SS 3. ⁠Kevin Smith, SS 4. ⁠Jordan Groshans, 3B 5. ⁠Gunnar Hoglund, LHP 6. ⁠Leo Jimenez, SS 7. ⁠Manuel Beltre, SS/2B 8. ⁠Sem Robberse, RHP 9. ⁠Ricky Tiedemann, RHP 10. ⁠Otto Lopez, 2B/OF 11. ⁠Rikelbin De Castro, SS/2B 12. ⁠Estiven Machado, 2B 13. ⁠Miguel Hiraldo, 2B/3B 14. ⁠Dasan Brown, OF 15. ⁠Eric Pardinho, RHP 16. ⁠CJ Van Eyk, RHP 17. ⁠Samad Taylor, 2B 18. ⁠Adam Kloffenstein, RHP 19. ⁠Irv Carter, RHP 20. ⁠Hayden Juenger, RHP

Vladdy is looking great these days: Jose Fortuna (@josefortunaafit) • Instagram photo WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM 999 likes, 52 comments - josefortunaafit on February 8, 2022: "Welcome to FTF @vladdyjr27 the best hitter of the MLB2K21 season. Let’s make 2k22 even better. #FTF #justresults #nodaysoff #noexcuses #mlb #offseason #training #toronto #bluejays #plakata #passion #legacy #godisgood". Seems like he’s been working with Teoscar this offseason. I don’t think I’ve seen him look in this great shape before. You can definitely see it in the face.

Some kind soul was nice enough to compile Gabriel Moreno’s AA highlights into a YouTube video: That swing is so compact, yet powerful. Eric Logenhagen was saying he doesn’t see 30+ homer potential in that bat, but with his innate ability to make contact combined with his reported exit velos, I’ll have to disagree with him there. We’re gonna need a “Guess the stat line for Gabriel Moreno” thread before the season starts. I honestly think an .800 OPS is the floor here. He’s objectively chasing some bad pitches in that video, and still driving them lol.

He must be much higher on our young international crop than the rest of the industry. Namely, Orelvis Martinez Estiven Machado Manuel Beltre, Leo Jimenez, Sem Robberse, Victor Mesia, Rikelbin de Castro, all of whom have looked good-to-great at the lower levels. He might be expecting them to pop even further. Aggressive ranking for sure, and downright bold to rank us over some other teams. We'll see if it comes to fruition.

Keith Law's Farm System rankings are out. They are...interesting to say the least: 1. Dodgers 2. Mariners 3. Diamondbacks 4. Rays 5. Blue Jays 6. Pirates 7. Royals 8. Guardians 9. Giants 10. Orioles 11. Rangers 12. Tigers 13. Cardinals 14. Marlins 15. Padres 16. Cubs 17. Braves 18. Twins 19. Reds 20. Red Sox 21. Mets 22. Yankees 23. Angels 24. Astros 25. Rockies 26. Brewers 27. Nationals 28. Phillies 29. Athletics 30. White Sox Blurb on the Jays

The approach, like you said, seems to be to go big and splash for that one IFA that everyone in the org has real conviction in (i.e. Vladdy, Orelvis, Bonilla), and then spread out the remaining allotment amongst some other lottery tickets that the scouts like (i.e. Kirk, Moreno). There were some cases where we spread out the bonus pool relatively evenly amongst a bunch of players. I believe when we signed Miguel Hiraldo, Leo Jimenez, & Eric Pardinho, the strategy there was to spread out the total bonus pool amongst 3 guys they liked. The international market is so hard to gauge though. Generally speaking, the deals are agreed upon years before the signing period, and it's contingent on your area scouts and scouting director having built relationships with the people who run the elite academies that produce these players. For example, in 2017 3 of the top 6 players ranked were Wander Franco, George Valera, & Julio Rodriguez. Could simply have been that we didn't get to those guys fast enough when they were developing, and the Rays/Mariners/Indians just beat us to the punch in identifying those guys before we did. In most cases, you probably have to identify them at 13 or 14, build that relationship with them and their coaches, agree to a signing bonus, and then hope they progress as you projected and into a top prospect before the lists are even released. Kind of crazy to think about. Projecting them at 16 when they're eligible to sign is is hard enough, but in most cases you're probably evaluating them at 12-14 and hoping their meet your projection by the time they're 16.