max silver
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Everything posted by max silver
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GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
max silver replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
Meh, Roden wasn't on the 40 man roster yet and he was still getting his feet wet in AAA. He took a seismic leap forward in AAA later in the season as well and that may have been delayed if he were called up to MLB too soon. It's really not a situation to continue being upset about after so much time as I recall you griping about this back in September as well. -
This is Vlad negotiating tactics 101. Lets suppose that the Ortiz comment represents something that approaches Vlad's actual asking price. Vlad insists he'll keep "negotiating" (I use that term very lightly) if the front office makes him a reasonable offer, despite this reasonable offer amount almost certainly being so high that there's no team in MLB that would be willing to pay it. More Vlad negotiating tactics: state repeatedly that he wants to be a Blue Jay long term, but liking social media posts with him photoshopped in other team's uniforms. This came along with a generous serving of negotiating through the media as he directly stated the team's initial offering price in an interview. stating that he set a spring training deadline to avoid becoming a distraction but failing to realize this would set off an inevitable shitstorm of media attention and speculation as soon as the deadline came and went. Despite not wanting to be a distraction he continued liking posts showing him in other team's uniforms. That sort of feels like maybe it would be a tiny bit distracting, but then I've been told I need to stop looking through "Shatkins blinders" so what do I even know.
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Jeff Passan is likely the most respected insider in the sport of baseball. He made the original statement that he thought Vlad wouldn't touch $300 million, took a bunch of flak from other baseball people and walked the statement back entirely. I respect the guy even more for being willing to take his lumps and change his viewpoint when necessary, and the only reason I can see for you to use a retracted statement in your argument is that you have very little else to offer in this discussion to back up your viewpoints. Your entire argument is based on a bunch of assumptions. The fact of the matter is that none of us have any kind of idea what Vlad is actually asking for or what the final offer was from the team. We have a report from before the Soto signing that the team was offering somewhere around $350 million or thereabouts. There was an oddly specific opinion posted by David Ortiz that he views Vlad as being worth a 13 year $585 million contract. It's possible that this is what Vlad is asking for from the Blue Jays, but I'm not going to start making definitive statements here because I don't know what Vlad is asking for or what the front office was willing to offer. Go ahead and make a bunch of assumptions and assume that you are correct as that in your typical tact. Try using some basic logic and reasoning in your posts and your opinions might even be taken seriously.
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The supercars that set the market were known for more reliable performance and require a reasonable amount of effort to maintain. Those cars possessed a much higher top end and didn't have periods of time where they were misfiring and offering mediocre performance relative to the financial requirements. The supercar the Blue Jays possess is very heavy in nature and has poor handling and acceleration. It has a miscalibrated electronics system that occasionally leads to itself driving off of the road. It's been known to require more and more maintenance over time that increases the required effort to even keep it on the road let alone maintaining it's performance. As this particular supercar is so unique in it's characteristics it's impossible to know at this point how it would perform in the market due to it's outlying characteristics and uneven performance.
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Passan himself admitted that he's changed his mind on what Vlad's future earning may entail and that he very well could eclipse the $300 million mark. I'm sure you are well aware that he completely walked back the statement and that it's completely irrelevant at this point. If the entire premise of your argument is based on a past statement that's been corrected by the person who originally made it then perhaps your argument isn't particularly sound to begin with.
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GDT: Spring Training Games, Week of 2/23 - 3/1
max silver replied to Pendleton's topic in Game Thread Archive
Bo Bo ran hard plenty of times throughout the game. What's the upside of going 100% in every single play in the first game of spring training before he's even fully conditioned and ready for the season? Spring training exists for a reason, there's no reason to pretend this is the 7th game of the world series. The downside risk of Bo overdoing it in a warm up game is far greater than any kind of upside. This would do nothing more than increasing his risk of injury in a completely meaningless game. If he blows out his calf in spring training by pushing too hard too soon that could easily set him up for another wasted season. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I have the same 3 people that constantly downvote me. They have a really sweet thing going on and they are like the boards edgy boys. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I had no issues with the plan in general, but I didn't agree with bringing in Kikuchi in the middle of the inning vs waiting until he could start an inning without runners on base as he's more accustomed to as a starter. With a little better luck on batted balls the plan could have worked to perfection as well as Kikuchi surrendered a few ground balls that snuck through the infield. -
That's it, I challenge you to a duel!
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Why on earth is everyone so quick to assume that Ross Atkins is some sort of evil domineering mastermind? He strikes me as more of a Ned Flanders type than someone that has his fingers in every single decision the organization makes. The team has a horde of dudes in Khakis to come up with schemes like this. My only real complaint is that it appears as though nobody informed the players of this plan. Take your pick of whether this is something that Atkins should have done, or if an in game decision like this should be relayed by the manager as he's supposed to be the on field leader of the troops. -
I've been a little preoccupied with the looming Vlad extension deadline and ensuing drama. Please forgive me if I've missed out of a few other tidbits of recent news.
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I'm assuming this is a challenge based system vs full ABS?
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Both of Schneider and Atkins said exactly the same thing that this was Schneider's decision when to implement the move. I don't see any reason to believe this isn't true. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
That move required a massive set of balls given how bold and controversial it was. -
Vlad had a bad start to the season, that's it. He turned around his season towards the end of April, as over the last 5 months of the season he was MLB's second best qualified hitter behind Aaron Judge. I hate this false narrative that he only produced when the team was out of the race as it's simply not true. The team was hanging around the .500 mark until June and Vlad had turned around his season far before that time.
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When did I even suggest that was the case? Soto is essentially a guaranteed hall of famer at this point, and he possesses a skill set that is very likely going to age well. He's been super consistent in his career and is one of the best bets to continue being an elite hitter in the sport. That contract has really raised the bar in salaries, but he's the type of hitter that rarely becomes available in free agency. Vlad simply hasn't been anywhere close as consistent, has a remarkably low floor when he's not hitting, and has produced a far less valuable peak season than Soto. Vlad has shown up out of shape several times in his career, is MLB's least valuable baserunner and defender, has a chronic wrist issue, and has already suffered from several knee issues at this point of his career. He's an incredibly risky proposition to extend at something closer to a Devers type of contract, and if he's asking for $450 million or more that's patently absurd.
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I'll throw this line of thinking right back at you. How much of a Vlad fanboy do you need to be to insist upon handing him an above market value contract that he has in no way shape or form earned with his on the field results? I fully expect if he doesn't replicate the 5 month stretch in 2024 when he was MLB's second best hitter he is going to be in for a rude awakening in free agency. MLB teams aren't as illogical as the average fan tends to be, and they are largely paying players now based on their proven ability to produce wins on the field. Vlad has been so up and down through his career and comes with more question marks and concerns than nearly every other star player in the sport.
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Vlad received a huge raise after the monster 2021 season that set this all in motion. The arbitration system is largely broken in that players can still receive sizable raises despite not really earning them. Vlad is the perfect illustration of this, as he was on track to earn a sizeable raise in arbitration after his terrible 2023 season despite producing a 1.3 FWAR season. If anything it would have been perfectly fair and reasonable for him to see a pay reduction based on the poor results in 2023 and even 2022.
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Go compare these guy's careers and I suspect you'd understand why Vlad hasn't earned anywhere close to what Soto was paid in free agency. Vlad has produced a total of 17 FWAR in his career in 3540 PA, good for an average of 3.125 FWAR per 650 PA. Contrast that with Soto who has produced 36.3 FWAR in 4088 PA, good for 5.77 FWAR per 650 PA. Soto has been much more consistent to the point where he has produced over twice the wins above replacement with only about a single season of extra playing time. Based on what these guys have respectively accomplished in their careers up to this point there is no conceivable way that Vlad has earned even half of what Soto was just paid. We don't even know what Vlad was asking for, but there could be a hint from David Ortiz who posted that Vlad was worth a 13 year/$585 million contract. If Vlad is actually looking for these types of numbers it should come as no surprise that the team balked at these demands.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2025)
max silver replied to Ryu In My House's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Part of the issue last season was that the team didn't really have anyone better for the leadoff spot early on in the season. The only decent option was IKF but handing him the most plate appearances on the team would have been questionable to say the least given his long term track record of well below average offensive production.

