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Yeah he has a chance to be a very nice pick up for the Red Sox. Have they stated how they intend to use him yet? With how weak their rotation looks that might be the best use of the guy, but their bullpen had issues last year as well so he could make a definite impact in any role for them.

Out of the minor league guys Davis is the one I like the best as well. He doesn't have a super high ceiling, but the floor looks to be higher than the other guys. He's taken a long time to reach MLB as he's needed to repeat a ton of levels in the minors, but each year he has made substantial improvements to his results, adding both improved power and walks to his game. He had a rough MLB debut, but after having a chance to adjust to MLB pitching maybe he improves enough at the plate to provide some value.

Puig is obviously a very polarizing player and his name keeps popping up in various threads at this point. Sooner or later this discussion will die down, he'll sign with somebody, rosters will be set, etc. etc. etc. so. Let's have a friendly wager on who has a better 2020, just for bragging rights. I say both Teoscar and Gurriel will put up better WARs by the end of the year than Puig. Those guys are both still improving while Puig to my eyes looks to be going backwards. This is still a rebuilding squad, and there are a million outfielders the Jays are looking at to see who can perform at MLB. Puig is almost certainly going to be better than all of these guys no doubt, but he's a basket case who has been a disruptive presence. I say let him be somebody else's problem.

Given all of the clamoring for signing this guy and proclamations of 4 win upside I'm not so sure everyone on here actually ever looks at Fangraphs. Why in the world do so many posters seem to have a raging boner for the Jays to sign this player? It seems the most common reason is he is better than Anthony Alford, who is likely gone by the end of spring training anyway, if not shortly afterwards.

You can go back to 2015 if you like, but that just changes the argument from declining player to mediocre player instead. Aside from his sensational debut years Puig has only really had one good year, and that was largely due to a huge defensive season that is a huge outlier and very likely never to be reproduced. The bat is nothing special in this guy, and the overall value is nothing to get excited about either. Here are WAR values going back to 2015: 2015 1.5 2016 1.0 2017 2.9 2018 1.8 2019 1.2 In 3 out of 5 years he has produced less than 2 WAR. This simply isn't a very good player. His projections for 2020 are very generous/optimistic given the long run of mediocrity.

Check out these numbers and tell me you don't see a distinct downward trend the last 3 years. Let's start with walk rates: 2017 11.1 2018 8.1 2019 7.2 Now the k-rates: 2017 17.5 2018 19.6 2019 21.8 How about o-swing%: 2017 29.3 2018 31.1 2019 34.2 Another noteworthy stat xWOBA: 2017 .366 2018 .349 2019 .334 You have me on the swinging strike rate, 2019 wasn't his worst year. It held steady at 10.5% for 2017-2018, but jumped quite significantly to 13.6% in 2019 He has had worse seasons in this stat. But the jump in swinging strikes combined with worst since his rookie season tendency to swing at pitches off the plate are definitely noteworthy. If you can look at these numbers and not see a very distinct possibility of a player with declining offensive abilities then we will have to agree to disagree. This player put up a paltry 1.2 WAR with a WRC+ of only 101. His Zips projection thinks that's the kind of bat he has going forward, and gives him a bump to his defense, despite two consecutive sub-par years by UZR. There is a very good chance he's simply not a good player anymore, and if you combine this with the noted character issues Puig isn't a great proposition to add to a team that with a CEO with a slogan on his whiteboard of "no *******s".

Obviously my post was tongue in cheek, but when you take a look at a huge amount of Puig's numbers you see a guy with eroding baseball skills. He walks less, strikes out more, swings at more pitches off the plate, swings and misses more than ever before, provides no added value on the bases, and might even be below average defensively now to boot. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that he is suddenly going to resurrect his career, he's pretty much the poster child for wasting immense physical talents by not getting the most out of the talent he possesses. His two best seasons he rocked BABIPs of .356 and .383, he hasn't come close to replicating those numbers since, and subsequently never approached the same kind of overall value. It seems apparent that both Panik and Puig have their best days behind them at this point, given that their career best seasons are many years ago. Panik actually has one less year elapsed since his career best season.

Joe Panik put up a 3.8 win season in 2015. Applying the same logic as some like to use on here when projecting Puig we can state that Panik has the possibility of putting up a 3+ win season in 2020.

That Ryan Borucki aceucki nicknake or whatever the f*** it is even worse.

-Patrick Murphy gets called up mid season and forms a nice 1-2 flamethrowing starter punch with Pearson -all three of Gurriel, Grichuk and Hernandez out WAR Puig -Nate Pearson comes up in May and proceeds to win rookie of the year award for AL -Mathew Shoemaker miraculously makes it through an entire season without serious injury -Red Sox finish 4th in AL East -Torkelson drops to 5th and gets drafted by Jays (gotta dream big)

I just don't think the Jays are interested in lower end outfield upgrades this off-season. They've already passed on inexpensive guys like Pillar and Calhoun who would have upgraded the overall roster, but without the baggage that Puig brings. Rightly or wrongly they look committed to figuring out which guys in their glut of AAA and AAAA outfielders has a chance to turn into something. Could certainly be that none of Alford/Fisher/McKinney/Davis ever amount to even 4th outfielders though.

Hey at the very least I can help generate new Jays content by sharing my unpopular opinions. Although I don't think there was any squabbling going in with regards to Cavan Biggio if that is the previous article you are referring to, we seem to be in agreement that he's a very good underrated player.

I guess I just don't agree with the projections for Teoscar vs. Puig. Initially I missed the fact that the fangraphs depth chart projections for Puig were only for 86 games vs 125 for Teoscar, my bad there. To my eye Teoscar showed real improvements both in the field and with the bat last year, and I just don't see why he should project so low for 2020. I guess the projection systems don't think his improvements were sustainable. I saw a player in 2019 that was getting better, I just don't see why he projects to get worse going forward. When I look at Puig's numbers I see a lot of red flags that suggest he's going backwards in a lot of key categories, his plate discipline numbers are declining, and his walk and k-rates are also getting worse over time, not just a one year dip but something that's been happening over several seasons. His BABIP wasn't overly low, and WOBA and xWOBA are within a few points of each other, so to my (admittedly untrained) eye this suggest that his bat going forward very well could be only league average. Maybe he outperforms his 1.2 WAR in 2019, but I wouldn't be willing to bet money on that. With the off the field and on the field issues that have plagued Puig I guess I just don't think the upside outweighs the drawbacks. This seems to be an unpopular opinion but it just looks like to me that Teoscar and Puig are very likely to put up similar value on the field. But one guy hasn't even hit arbitration yet and gets paid peanuts, and the other guy is a free agent that will get paid real dollars. One guy seems to be liked by his teammates (although the sunflower seed thing would be annoying as f***) and hasn't caused any issues that we know of, and the other guy wore out his welcome with the Dodgers.

Most of the bad boy types you mention are far superior players compared to Puig at this point of their respective careers. Star level production would certainly incline a team to deal with a guys ******** compared to someone who projects to be average. I just don't see that Puig has 4 win upside at this point of his career given how long it's been since he was able to offer that level of production. The team I think Puig may be the best fit for is the Indians. They have a terrible looking outfield, and should still be competitive in the AL Central. They should already be familiar with what he offers both good and bad, and would already be familiar with how he fit with their particular squad. Indians are notoriously cheap though, especially when it comes to making outfield additions as that's been an ongoing area of concern for them for a lot of years.

Puig is far from some type of angel. He has repeatedly clashed with his teammates and coaches even refusing to accept coaching input, and is always a moment away from snapping on the field and starting a fight with the opposition. Baseball fights are generally nothing events, but from time to time guys actually end up injured after these fights occur. I'd be livid if one of the Jays young players were to end up hurt because management decided to sign a powder keg personality like Puig. Given the emphasis placed on culture by the Jays front office this is exactly the kind of guy they would stay away from. There is very little upside to signing a guy like this. You likely exhaust the rest of your available payroll and take away money that could be used for sensible mid-season improvements if the opportunity arises, take playing time away from young players that are out of options, bring a potentially disruptive presence into your clubhouse, and all of this is for a guy that is potentially not even an upgrade on what you already have. Projection systems are far from infallible, there is a possibility Puig is declining based on his three year output, and ends up even worse than 2019. This is a team that isn't likely to contend, and still in their rebuild state. How does bringing in a guy like Puig make sense for the Blue Jays? Let's say he is a small upgrade, adding a single win to the roster despite all the potential drawbacks seems pointless if you believe this team is like to win 75 wins, and even if you think they are closer to 80+ wins I don't see a huge benefit either.

What does Puig even guarantee though? In 2019 The guy put up WAR of 1.2 with a WRC+ of 101. He simply isn't the same guy that he was in 2013/2014 when he created such a sensation.

Teoscar put up a 142 WRC+ in the second half last year, there is massive potential in his bat. Whether or not he can sustain anything close to that over an entire season remains to be seen of course.

I just don't really see how Puig is a great fit for this roster. If he could play center field he would be a lot more interesting. Atkins is on record that he was amenable to bringing in outfield upgrades, but only if they were notable improvements on what was already on the roster. They have already passed on better options such as Marte and possibly Akiyama depending on he adjusts to MLB pitching, so bringing in Puig seems super unlikely at this stage. Gurriel likely outperforms Puig by several wins, only issue likely preventing this from happening would be health issues for Gurriel. Grichuk and Puig are likely to put up similar value by the end of the year, but Grichuk can play center field and is getting paid $10+ million already, so the Jays are sort of forced a little bit to play him regularly to attempt to salvage some value from that deal. I view Teoscar as not having hit his ceiling yet, and the potential he has shown with the bat leads me to believe this guy should play every day until you fully establish what he is capable of going forward. This is still a development year at this stage, and bringing in a guy who is incredibly likely to be a marginal upgrade doesn't make a lot of sense when looking at things from more of a long term perspective. Yasiel Puig looks to be going backwards with the bat, and optimistic scenarios have him putting up a 2 win season, hence likely a marginal upgrade over guys already projected to start. I see no reason to completely write off talented young players before exhausting all options for major league playing time, and that is what happens to either Fisher or Alford for certain if you sign Puig. Sure it's possible that Alford and Fisher both end up flaming out completely, but they aren't there yet, and writing them off at this stage accomplishes nothing. If we are to believe reports up to this point the Jays have likely exhausted most if not of their available payroll to start the season, there might not be money left to bring in Puig anyway. Perhaps jettisoning Drury off of the roster could save a little money, but that wouldn't free up enough cash to sign Puig in all likelihood. And we haven't gotten to the character related issues yet, this is likely the biggest reason aside from money that the guy hasn't found a job yet.

I wonder what other offers Moustakas had on the table? 4 years and $64 million was pretty crazy given the way players of his ilk had been paid recently.

I'm not so sure Puig is worth the headaches the on the field shenanigans are inevitably going to lead to. He projects very similarly to Teoscar at this point, and bringing Puig aboard very likely leads to no room for Fisher or Alford on the roster as Puig leads to 4 MLB outfielders on the roster. I'd rather Fisher and/or Alford get a decent shot to prove themselves before most likely losing them to waivers. This team isn't expected to compete, so I think it makes more sense to see what the current crop of guys is capable of.

Nice, I didn't know that spin rate information was readily available for minor league pitchers.

According to this chart Hatches fastball could be a sneaky good weapon with regards to swinging strikes: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HI-dikWN64clxSGJu2QV8C64R9Bkzt8K-jFaeHj4X7k/edit#gid=0 It looks like Hatch would likely fall into the 8.5-11% range where this article (while a little old now as it's from 2014), shows fastball swinging strike percentage was only 6.95 for 4 seam fastballs: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/swinging-strike-benchmarks-for-pitch-types/

Here you are again dazzling us again with your unrelenting sense of optimism. I find myself wondering if there has been a skill change with his control, wouldn't it be hard to fluke your way into a 0.51 BB/9? According the Fangraphs it takes 170 batters faced for walk rates to stabilize, so Hatch has quite a ways to go on that front as he only pitched 35 innings with a whip of 0.76. He likely only faced in the neighbourhood of 75-80 batters total, so there is almost certainly some regression expected here, but even so that's a very impressive walk rate. I am taking the whole narrative about the shoulder inflammation causing the control woes with a bit of a grain of salt as well, but given the arsenal present and nice second half results I would hope for more than middle reliever here.

Sportsnet put up an interesting piece on Thomas Hatch today. It's revealed within that the main reason that his control improved so dramatically after his trade to the Jays was that he was suffering through a pretty severe case of shoulder inflammation for a good part of the season. Once he healed up fully he had a dramatic turnaround in his walk numbers at AA for Toronto. https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-thomas-hatch-finding-success-health-change/ This seems like a guy who is being overlooked by much of the scouting industry. His numbers in New Hampshire are pretty damn impressive, 0.51 BB/9, 2.25 xFIP jump off the page immediately when perusing his numbers. He was hurt a bit by the homerun, but perhaps the 20.8% HR/FB will normalize, previously his high was only 10.4%. It seems he possesses a high spin fastball, effective slider/cutter, and a nice splitter like changeup. What is a realistic ceiling for this guy? I wonder if mid-rotation is attainable by this guy personally, it sounds like he has a lot of good tools at his disposal.

I read that he thinks his new delivery is actually allowing him to utilize his lower half more effectively, and it may have unlocked further velocity for him. The shoulder issue last season was supposedly due to the high frequency of bullpens he was throwing, and just some inflammation without any actual damage, so with that it appears he has been mostly healthy going all the way back to 2016.