max silver
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Everything posted by max silver
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I wouldn't be so sure that Grichuk is going to act as a defensive upgrade for the club by switching positions. He likely takes over as 4th outfielder from Anthony Davis who is in fact a superior defender to Grichuk. With Vladdy Jr. and Rowdy Tellez both in the fold there will be limited DH bats available for the outfielders to rotate through. Barring trade Teoscar and Gurriel are still going to be roaming the outfield most games as they offer a lot more overall value than Grichuk due to their far better offensive abilities and higher upside.
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I think the guy took a clear step forward in 2018. What are the red flags with regards to Bauer? He's not getting a Gerrit Cole 10 year contract, if it only takes 5 years to lock him up then that's a no brainer decision. During the last 3 seasons he's accumulated the 6th most pitcher FWAR, I really don't get how people are viewing him as a one year flash in the pan. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=
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You can say the same of every starting pitcher in baseball though. He's still putting up elite numbers against MLB competition either way in 2 out of the last 3 seasons.
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Bauer had a monster 2018 season as well with the Indians, so it's not like 2020 is the only good season he's had in his career. He was good for 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP/3.14 xFIP and 5.8 FWAR. His numbers were off a little in 2019, but he revealed that he was dealing with partially torn ankle ligaments and back spasms throughout that season that affected his mechanics.
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General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
max silver replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Interestingly enough Biggio and Gurriel are within 2 points of each other in career WRC+. They obviously go about producing it in different ways though. Gurriel will most likely produce better power numbers during his career, but he's super streaky. Biggio's elite plate discipline shouldn't be discounted however, it should allow him to avoid deep slumps as he will be able to work the pitchers for walks even when his timing is off. -
General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
max silver replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Sportsnet's Arden Zwelling has a very interesting piece up outlining the ways in which the Jays have been utilizing their new Dunedin complex to allow the minor league players to continue their development despite the pandemic. https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/blue-jays-development-complex-prospects-making-lost-2020/ -
I was thinking of Jon Gray for some reason instead of the obviously more appealing Sonny Gray. Although I suspect Sonny Gray's acquisition cost would likely be super expensive in terms of prospect capital given the remaining years of control and super reasonable contract.
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Gray isn't particularly appealing. He had a really bad 2020 season and only has 1 year of control remaining.
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If Vladdy Jr. breaks out completely and the Jays add a chunk of quality players to the roster the Jays suddenly look very legit as a contender. They are going to score a ton of runs from the looks of the lineup that's already available, just need to sort out the pitching staff so that the team can slow down the runs from the opposition a bit.
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General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
max silver replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
If Bo can play short stop there's no reason he wouldn't be able to play third. I think he has the tools to become an excellent third baseman if that's where he ultimately ends up. -
There's no good way to know how good Semien will be either. His upside is very high, but generally he's provided roughly a league average bat, with his one above average offensive season being the clear outlier.
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I recall Semien's agent mentioning that Semien is worth a 9 figure contract, so it sounds like his asking price is initially very high. Unless there is a decimal place missing in the asking price though there's no way in hell Semien is going to approach an actual 9 figure offer though.
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That looks to be largely predicated on an exit velocity and subsequent babip that are well above his typical career values.
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And in other news it's been announced that water is wet.
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Zips projections for Kim are very positive, he's projected to be a nearly 4 win player right away: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ha-seong-kim-has-big-mlb-aspirations-and-projections/ I've read others have concerns about whether he'll be able to hit MLB velocity or not (Keith Law looks to have a fair bit of skepticism) as his swing is a bit on the longer side.
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It certainly can't hurt the Jays chances of a Kim signing having Korea's best MLB player already on the roster. Kim is such a great fit for the Jays roster, he can play third base on a regular basis and provide cover for short stop in case of a Bichette injury.
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I'd be a little worried about the possibility of cancer relapse with Carrasco. You would think that would have to factor into the acquisition cost though, so maybe the prospect capital required would be lessened a bit.
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You are acting as if the 2020 version of Stripling is guaranteed to be the same level of performance that he delivers going forward. He had a rough couple of months in a pandemic shortened season, one in which pitchers weren't able to utilize their normal training routines due to lockdown measures. Even factoring in the bad results in 2020 Stripling still has a career ERA/FIP/XFIP of 3.77/3.89/3.65. You would have to imagine the front office identified some sort of flaw in his delivery or mechanics that suddenly led to him becoming more hittable than usual. His walk rate was quite a bit higher than his career norms and his homerun rate basically doubled compared to his career norms. His stuff doesn't look to have taken a step back either. If he can get himself back to his usual self and perform up to his career standard he is a pretty nice back end rotation option.
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I seriously doubt Lindor ever puts up another 7 win season though. His foot speed looks to be slowing down as his sprint speeds have been dropping, and the last few years he's been a negative runner based on Fangraphs. Lindor's offensive output has only been decent the last few seasons. He looks like a player who if his defense starts to slip (not out of the realm of possibility due to declining speed) isn't going to be worth a superstar contract. I think Jason Heyward is a pretty decent comparable, so much of his value was achieved by being well rounded in all 3 phases of the game but the bat was never elite. If/when either the bat or the defense slips for Lindor he could very quickly lose much of his value on the field.
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I don't agree with trading away the guy who is likely the team's best outfielder personally, makes more sense in my view to wait until the next offseason when you potentially have a full crop of premiere shortstops to choose from and only give away a comp pick. What is the upgrade of Lindor vs. Gurriel, 2-3 wins max? Plus whatever prospect capital needs to be moved out as well, all for the right of paying a free agent contract to Lindor a year early?
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Just saying I disagree with the projections. Obviously we can't assume any player with meet or exceed their projections, but 2 wins is pretty damn conservative for Gurriel assuming he plays a more or less complete season.
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Those projections have Gurriel projected at 107 WRC+, which he has handily beaten every season since he was a rookie. If he manages to stay reasonably healthy and make it into 140 or so games 3 wins should be well within his grasp. It's amazing how little North American professional experience he has under his belt, he has only played in about 350 games total due to the various injuries he seems to constantly be dealing with.
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Wheeler/Ryu/Pearson would be a crazy good top 3 members for the rotation.
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Zach Wheeler would be an awesome pickup, how desperate are the Phillies to shed salary?
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General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
max silver replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I view Danny Jansen's maximum ceiling being a Yasmani Grandal type dual threat. Both Jansen and Grandal put up similar numbers as minor leaguers, with similar iso numbers, similar k/bb rates, similar WRC+. Jansen needs to start squaring up more baseballs to reach his ceiling, but I see no way that he will be a sub .200 BABIP player forever. Both Jansen and Grandal are very good defensive catchers as well. Trading a player of this potential calibre away for a 1 year rental player is monumentally stupid. I could see him being a key piece to a trade for somebody like Yu Darvish, but the key is the need to get some control back in any trade.