Not just about record, it's about talent level relative to other contenders and realistic minor league capital for trades/late season call up. Talent level is good, it's certainly isn't a terrible team, it just isn't good enough.
I see no way our SP will be able to compete with the best, that's our biggest issues, one front-line starter in Gausman and a bunch of 3-4 type pitchers (you could argue with Berrios, but I see him as more of a #3 on a championship team). Manoah was never really that guy, even if he figures it out, he's another #3 to me. Our bullpen is very good, good late season potential, no truly elite guys though.
Lineup is good, still our strength, RISP is kind of flukey at the moment, but it was better in past years and not good enough to overcome the SP. I don't believe in Vladdy at this point to be the guy we needed him to be, and that really hurts us. Considering the payroll and how little we have in the cupboard, to me, this team should be in a better place.