Praxis

Labatt's says remember 1992/1993?

This is also absolutely true. Shapiro and Atkins are being hamstrung, as AA was, by an ownership group worth billions that is content to let the Jays sit 14th in payroll in Major League Baseball. Ridiculous. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/2016/

Boston and LA are also not operating under the payroll restrictions we are. Period. Plus see my above post on the FA 'class' of 2017 and tell me where the higher level replacements are.

I should also add for those in the Cult of Shatkins that the FA pool next year is absolutely s*****. Show me where the money will be spent on better players please. https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/potential-free-agents-for-2017/

And this is precisely the problem. Those already heavily invested in the Shatkins cult argue that the Jays will invest the money saved from EE/JB elsewhere. This is a specious argument based on simple but faulty logic. Casuals may be annoying to some on here perhaps, but Shapiro has said that bums in seats might mean more money spent on payroll in the future. What if those same casuals, pissed off at seeing EE/JB leave, don't show up any more or buy their merchandise? Does that mean the reverse will become true and there would be less money to spend on payroll? You would have to assume so. Plus if the team is shedding potentially large veteran contracts and presumably going into rebuild mode yet again, why would the new FO put serious money into other high profile veteran FA contracts? It simply wouldn't make sense. It would seem more likely that we would yet again go into another death spiral ending up in 15,000-20,000 fans per game and $80-100m payrolls for the foreseeable future as replacement level scrubs filled the gaps. Then we would look more like the Cleveland Indians.

I have been supporting this team for over 25 years and will not stop now simply because I am not a stats nerd, part of the swarm or am unwilling to hail Shapiro and Atkins as the smartest FO that has ever existed on Canadian soil before a meaningful pitch has been thrown. Further seeing Edwin and JB walk, while it may make great business and statistical sense to those huddled in robes in dark corners of this forum as part of the new initiated Shatkins Cult, will not do much to stop the public relations s*** storm that will inevitably follow or the loss of confidence in the organization throughout baseball as one that is unwilling to do what it takes financially to build a winner.

We had better enjoy this year, because after this season it is going to be a long, cold winter.

I know all about EBITDA and how it pertains to the Blue Jays payroll, but a bit of me dies inside every time I hear someone say "If we can get bigger crowds/have playoff success/sell more merchandise we might get a bigger payroll." This is Rogers FFS, the same company that blew billions on hockey, generates revenues of $13bn a year and has an adjusted operating profit of $5bn a year. http://www.rogers.com/web/ir/financial-reporting/financial-history I mean seriously, pass the f***ing bucket around the dressing room please...

Screw Edwin and his contract demands. And Bautista. And Price. And every other elite free agent pitcher/position player. And let Tulo demand a trade if they all leave. Screw 'em all I say and build slowly through the draft, prospects and unspectacular free agent signings; the casuals are wrong - WAR and OPS say so, not to mention Roger's shareholders. And in five years time we might be close to where we were 6 months ago.

Rogers Suits checked ticket and merchandise sales, TV revenue, Canadian dollar futures, marketing impact on production and product concept, EBITDA and earnings interest and then made a strictly baseball decision.

The answer of what the Jays should do next seems to depend on a variety of factors including age, memory of past failures, impressions of the new regime and adherence (or not) to advanced sabermetrics. Fans in the older age bracket who are not such a fan of advanced sabermetrics and who remember the last 20 years of futility and despair will probably look at last season's late run and playoff performance as a platform to build on and are possibly upset that Rogers didn't put up more to sign Price and/or comparable elite free agents. They are likely disturbed by the direction the club seems to be taking in terms of EE, JB and even the Josh Donaldson situation and are not relishing the prospects of yet another 5-10 year rebuild under a new regime. On the other hand are the younger fans who have only really known the Blue Jays for a few years, who are not burdened with the heavy weight of the last two decades and who see last season's run as more of a statistical aberration than a long term trend. They will look at all the numbers and be all to happy to watch a new FO tear down what they would perceive as an aging, declining core who should not be overpaid as they come into the twilight of their careers and so are more willing to wait for success and see the minors/organization be rebuilt from the ground up. Here's the problem for me: I see the merits of both sides but I'm an old f***er and I'm tired of seeing rebuilds. I don't know if I'll live 20 more years to see another playoff run and I'm pretty fed up with seeing Rogers acting like they're sort of interested in what is by far their hottest and best property. Flawed accouting practices, profit margins and suits should not be tightening the budgetary constraints when they have such a unique opportunity with this team to contend and be relevant to an entire nation. Unfortunately this will naturally mean that I will be dismissed as a casual or worse as a bandwagon jumper by the younger crowd despite having watched/followed the Jays for 25+ years in the good times and the bad. Pick your own side I guess; I would have broken the bank this offseason and given it a real go. Hell, we could have picked up the pieces later after raising the banners in the SkyDome. Sorry, Roger's Centre. But that's just me.

Interesting. This is actually a really good deal for the Jays, as most on here and in the industry have Donaldson projected to around $20m next season. Also I appreciate the symmetrics of splitting the arb proposals this year between $11.4 and $11.8m. Shame it doesn't sound too promising at the moment on the EE/JB front.

Does anyone know yet exactly how this breaks down over the 2 years e.g. 13m/16m? Apologies if obvious question is obvious.

It is not inconceivable that a player would choose to stay with a team he really liked if the money was fairly comparable and he had a real shot at winning with that club.

I've just stumbled across this article from Matt Swartz who argues that Donaldson should be getting $12m: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/arbitration-breakdown-josh-donaldson.html Click bait? Retard? Rage Quit? The only one who should be rage quitting this forum is me frankly, for having the gall to suggest that we look ridiculous and cheap by shortchanging the reigning AL MVP.

Another couple of signings like this we can film Godfather IV. Budda Boom Budda Bing.

Which was exactly the criticism of the poster who said that Donaldson wasn't short changed. See? Ah yes, the classic bait and switch tactic perfected by all good propagandists like the BBC and CBC. Ignore the two articles prior, pick on the weakest one and then pretend this invalidates the entire argument somehow. Amazing how many people fall for this line of specious reasoning. I just picked the first three I found BTW.

I can't tell if you're being serious or not? Argue with the following baseball analysts who dislike the move as well please: http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/ken-rosenthal-blue-jays-josh-donaldson-arbitration-risk-damaging-relation-long-term-450k-011816 "With apologies to Jim Croce, you don’t tug on Superman’s cape, you don’t spit into the wind and you don’t go to arbitration with an MVP." http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25451895/blue-jays-go-to-arbitration-with-mvp-josh-donaldson-over-450000 "It would be so unnecessary and ill-advised for the Jays to go through the exercise in order to save less than 4 percent of the contract." http://www.hngn.com/articles/170650/20160118/mlb-news-toronto-blue-jays-josh-donaldson-heading-to-arbitration-over-450k.htm And on and on.

The funny thing is, all the things the fans are lining up to blame Shapiro for can be almost directly tied to the corporate ownership of the Jays: 1) Not making Price an offer 2) Short-changing the American League MVP 3) Spinning our wheels in terms of the bullpen, closer role, back up catcher and outfield depth 4) Letting virtually every free agent of note go elsewhere 5) EE and Bautista? We'll find out, but my hopes are not high of signing either Shapiro almost has to start again from scratch because this team is getting older, the window is closing on this lineup staying together and sure as hell Rogers isn't going to raise the payroll higher to make any significant additions; apparently there is no-one left to even talk them into it anyway.

I think this is the most likely scenario at this point. Shapiro doesn't seem to be the type to be panicked into making a Vernon Wells type of deal for either player and I highly doubt Rogers would commit the extra funds necessary to keep both at this point and still hold the team together.

I think Obama killing the Keystone pipeline deal might have something to do with it as well, not to mention the recent spate of Buy American legislation, the Windsor-Detroit Bridge issue and the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act. Just saying.

I have Donaldson on all my shirts. MVP! MVP! $450,000!, $450,000! JB and EE will be gone soon, Tulo looked disgruntled from the moment we traded for him and no-one is quite sure what Stroman or Travis will be yet (although injuries aside they do look very promising). Given this current FO I wouldn't be surprised if in 3-5 years no-one on the 2016 roster will be here anyway. Shapiro wants his own team and his own legacy apparently.

http://49.media.tumblr.com/37eef28869ea70ede0f8847c722883d9/tumblr_n7xqgmJKJG1tajjsfo1_400.gif

Fair enough; no offense meant on my part either. This is sadly very close to the truth in some cases!

I simply cannot agree. Arbitration, as Davidi said on the Fan this morning, is a potentially nasty process and to possibly take on Donaldson and his representatives in a formal adversarial hearing two years in a row, especially after he just won the AL MVP, over $450,000 is a PR disaster and runs the very real risk of alienating the player from the organization. I have sat in and been formally trained in arbitration (not related to sports I admit) and they are usually ugly affairs and often a point of last resort to avoid court proceedings after mediation has failed.