Well - he was coming off seasons of 3.0, 2.2, 1.5 and 2.1 WAR and entering his prime (ages 28-30). I suspect there were positive signs of a potential breakout (3-4 WAR player) and they wanted to lock him up before that happened - recognizing if the breakout doesn't happen, then he should remain a 2 WAR player, which isn't so awful for $11M per.
If I were to guess, the probabilities were likely:
Breakout - 20%
Maintain Current - 70%
Pumpkin - 10%
In 2019 - we got the f***ing pumpkin guys. Does that make this move a bad decision? I'd argue it doesn't - it's just bad results. His GB% is up a bit this year and for some reason the power is gone (otherwise, most of the #'s all look the same). I'd suspect there's a pretty high chance he can make adjustments and return to the 2 WAR level next year - albeit his breakout chances have diminished.
If I were to guess, the probabilities for Sogard this year were likely:
2.2 WAR player, Jays best positional player, traded for a couple lottery tickets - 5%
Below average bench player - 20%
Cut in Spring Training - 75%
I mean Sogard came with absolutely no risk, but I'm not going to praise Shatkins for turning him into 2 lottery picks. They got lucky.