Brownie19

I think the DH/OFer signing will have a decent shot of replicating what Belt provided last year and the bounce back seasons from various players should balance the drop from Chapman to IKF. The offense wasn't as brutal as most claim it was last year. The actual runs scored had to be one of the worst possible outcomes that anyone could have reasonably expected. 107 wRC+ as a team, but only 746 runs score. Cincy had a 98 wRC+ and scored 783 runs. Cubs were 6th in MLB with 819 runs scored, with only a 104 wRC+

I have to think they feel comfortable that Vlad, Kirk, Varsho and Springer will all be significantly better - then they'll add a Joc Pederson to the mix and call it a day. It's not a very inspiring offseason, but our offense was 7th in MLB last year in wRC+. I suspect all the models they have suggest the RISP issues they had last year was a lot of bad luck and are very unlikely to occur again (perhaps the talk of additional support to players will help in this regard?). Fans won't like it - but there's probably a lot of truth to this. A breakout season by someone like Davis Schneider, or a healthy season by Jansen may be needed to really provide that extra umph in the lineup.

Get it done. Guy is a stud.

I think the best thing we could hope for is that RJ Barrett follows in the footsteps of Andrew Wiggins. Once Wiggins got out of Minny and escaped the pressures of being a top draft pick and the expectation that he'd be a superstar, he became a lot more efficient in GS and was able to develop into a very good defender. That's really what the team needs Barrett to be - an efficient 3rd or 4th scoring option and ideally, an above average defender. Now of course, that's easier to do when you're going to Golden State... Quickley is going to be a stud here. Raps will have to find a way to sign him long term this summer.

huh? There are people who don't realize that connorp paid Gibby and generally told him what to say? C'mon.

Not to interfere, but Green pitched 83 innings in 2021. Unlikely he approaches that this year. I would suggest the O/U for Green might be 1 or 1.2 WAR.

I don't see your point. If Green is a 1.5 WAR RP - that makes the Jays a lot better. I think the probability that Giolito is a 3+ WAR SPer / difference maker is quite low. I'm shocked it took $19M aav to get him....although I'm shocked Montas got $16M...happy we aren't in dire need of a SPer this off-season.

Sale + cash to the Braves for Grissom

5 WAR upside?? You think Belly has 7.8 WAR upside too?? Based on this logic, we might as well sign Syndergaard - he has big time upside too. And please stop quoting Green's WAR from last year like that matters. The guy has consistently been a 1.5+ WAR reliver. He might out WAR Giolito on his own in 1/2 the innings.

$19M+ annually for 2 years for Giolito? Barf

Barnes has been the #1 guy from Game 1 this season. Siakam and OG will probably both be gone. Tank, keep 1st rounder for a couple of years, build around Barnes.

Why do fans have such a hard time chilling out until the end of the off-season? Outrage on Dec 27th before you have any idea what other moves will be made or what role IKF will play on this team is pretty stupid.

The f*** is this nonsense? KK can't hit for s*** either. We're just saying we have a 27 year old OF who'd be most valuable playing CF over the next 3-4 years for the Jays. How difficult is that to understand?

https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-gifts-joe-kelly-porsche-for-no-17 Ohtani gives Joe Kelly's wife a porsche in exchange for #17. Rich people doing rich people things.

I don't know man. Career 99 wRC+ v. LHP. Career 82 wRC+ hitter. 33.5 K% last year. He's like signing Bradley Zimmer. I think Harrison Bader is a better target. Career 121 wRC+ v. LHP.

I'm not so sure the FA crop in 2024 is going to be lush with players we think are worth $150-$300M either. The reality is that landing franchise type players through free agency is typically a bad approach. Dodgers have been the exception lately, but they're due to have someone completely flop here.

That's rich coming from you.

This is a fair point - Gausman came with risks and that has worked out better than anyone could have envisioned. However, Gausman's underlying numbers suggested he was a legit star. The risk was that he didn't have a long track record of sustaining that type of success. This situation would be a lot more similar if Belly's underlying numbers were glorious and the question was simply whether he could repeat or not.

Interesting take - I'd probably agree that at this point, the best move for the medium-long term is for Atkins to fill holes with veteran stopgaps and rely on internal improvements from the cast of characters who s*** the bed last year (Vlad, Kirk, Manoah, Varsho, etc.) - along with some rookies who may be ready to step up (Schneider, Barger, Orelvis, etc.). But I can already hear the 'jays' fans calling for Atkins head if that doesn't exactly work out and the results aren't there. Completely unable to appreciate the position they are in, the limited options and long term implications of those decisions. Unable to realize that all options have a range of potential outcomes and even if you make the best decisions, they don't always work out. I'm fascinated to see how this all plays out.

I agree. If you're going to blow a wad of your budget on a player, you better "hit" or it will have a huge impact on your success. The issue for the Jays is they are in a "win now" position and are in need of an impact player for 2024....except there really isn't that clear cut star that's worth the $150-$300M deal to now that Ohtani has signed. It puts the Jays is a very difficult position. There is a chance that Belly IS that player we need and could be a 4-5 WAR player for the next 4-5 years. But there's also a risk that he's a 2 WAR player. That risk is higher than most players who are going to get $150-$200M. If Betts or Freeman turned into Anthony Rendon, there's a good chance the Dodgers become the Angels. There's always risk and luck involved in these deals, which are often outside of everyone's control.

What a bold prediction.

I remember thinking that about Anthony Rendon. The guy was coming off 5.9, 5.9 and 6.8 seasons with wRC+'s of 141, 140 and 155. Solid defense at 3rd (which isn't super demanding on the body) and no real red flags in his profile (12% BB rate, 13.5% K rate).

I think this is an odd criticism. I don't think any organization puts focus on building their bullpen through the draft. That said, the Jays now seem to have a wave of good bullpen arms that are now ready to help the big league club (Zulueta, Cooke, Danner, Juenger, Burnette, Brock, etc.).

Interesting thought. I agree - the money would be insane.

There was always going to be some pain after the success they had in 2015-2019, which resulted in a championship. Complaining about the results from the 29th overall pick is really stupid. Most outside the Top 10 bust anyway. I know that's confusing, given just how good the Raps have been at finding legit stars in the 20's (Siakam & OG). The fact they swung and missed a few times shouldn't be unexpected. The Norm and Lowry situations were all a result of trying to win. Could we have moved FFV sooner? Yes, perhaps. He's a ticking time bomb. They were all aging and approaching free agency. Had to keep them to win, but that killed their long term value - none of them were worth much. Norm's the only one who hasn't declined really, but Lowry and FVV were/are at the end of their time as starters in the league. I agree 100% about the Thad Young move - but if that's the worst thing you did, you're doing pretty good. I'm on the fence, leaning negative about the Poeltl trade. Like the player. Pretty sure they just mis-calculated how high of a pick they'd ultimately give up to give them - nobody's perfect. Definitely agree that what they do with Siakam and OG is going to be very interesting and important. I just don't think a team with the 2nd most wins in the last 10 years, which has produced a championship deserved that type of criticism. It seems pretty obviously that they wouldn't be able to sustain that type of success forever and some down years were coming. I think some have some unrealistic expectations - like nothing is every good enough. Calling the org "incompetent" is just plain stupid.