nextyear

Then explain what I have stated that is incorrect, otherwise you come off an some arrogant prick who doesn't have a clue. I don't accept random chance; that is the same as saying you don't know. In statistics random chance is often used but in reality there is always an explanation whether it is known or not. One explanation is that the equation is not valid; in science this would be the most acceptable explanation.

I actually do understand what WAR is. I wouldn't have such a problem with WAR if was called something like Combined Offensive Defensive metric. However, if you go to fangraphs the WAR metric is described as follows: (source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ ) You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y. A team made up of all Replacement level player (R in the WAR stat) is assumed to win 48 games per year (thereabouts, I don't have time now to look it up). So to get to a 0.500 team all players combined need WAR's to add up to an additional 33 games (to get to 81 games) over 162 games (there is some uncertainty, say +/- 5 games). Based on what I have stated above (from fangraphs) if Devon Travis, who is a plus WAR player, is replaced with Replacement level players (WAR of 0) and other players on the team remain the same then the team should win fewer games. However, in reality this wasn't the case; we know there is some uncertainty so even winning the same number or close (percentage wise) would be acceptable but the difference was well over 10 in the wrong direction. Please, could people stop claiming that I don't understand WAR. I understand it since it is a simple concept. However, WAR is not reliable in determining what it is intended to determine (Wins Above Replacement). I believe Devon Travis is a good player, but assigning a 2.4 WAR to him over his short career is meaningless as indicated by his real WAR when he was actually injured and replaced by a Replacement level player (determined directly) with almost all other players remaining the same (the team WAR didn't change significantly until players like Tulowitzki were acquired). In short, Devon Travis is a good player, but the WAR metric is just an interesting stat which cannot reliably calculate Wins Above Replacement as it is intended to do.

I doubt it. If you are an engineer then you aren't a very ethical one, nor well informed. Also, an engineer wouldn't purposely use incorrect grammar such as "Yur dum". There are methods such as factorial statistical analysis that can analyze such data and take into account the other 24 members of the team. In the simplest case, it is just a matter of doing a comparison with all else equal. If you are an engineer then why don't you understand something so basic as this?

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer. There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

I am still here and still don't believe in the way WAR it is calculated. In 30 years time, the youngsters here who believe in the way that WAR is currently calculated will probably be accused of being from the dark ages. Maybe in 30 years a factorial analysis of actual win data for each player will be used instead of some arbitrary algebraic mishmash of individual hitting and defensive stats that doesn't work.

Well put Baseball Player. You have to be thick-skinned to post on this forum; you seem like you will be able to handle the constant insults.

If I understand correctly, the Sabermetrics enthusiasts on this forum are saying that ERA is a team stat? That is certainly the case, ERA is a team stat since an improvement in the Blue Jays defense has greatly improved the team ERA. Regardless of what any stat says, the combined pitcher/team defense has been much better since the All Star break.

The best thing about watching the Blue Jays over the past couple of weeks is that they rarely make a defensive error any more. No longer do great pitching efforts get derailed by poor defensive plays.

What a fantastic series. The Blue Jays out pitched a very good Yankee pitching staff. Things look good for the Blue Jays if they can remain healthy.

The Yankee pitchers have been tough all 3 games. They have made most of the Blue Jay hitters look bad. But the Blue Jay pitchers have made the Yankee hitters look very bad.

Good eye by Pennington. Will be interesting to see what he can do on the base paths.

Jose and Josh are having a home run contest today.

Donaldson has to be MVP.

I think the Blue Jays will do well today. Navarro is a good hitter (but slow) and can do some damage. Colabello has had a lot of rest and will be motivated to focus on every pitch and show his worth as a hitter. Pillar needs to get going on offense again. Goins has shown improvement in the batters box, but for him to do well the umpires will have to be fair and call balls as balls. The Blue Jays still have Tulowitzki, Donaldson, and Bautista to hammer the ball and cause some damage. The 7, 8 and 9 hitters have to keep getting on base for them.

Interesting stat, thanks for looking it up. I like Goins' defense and lately he has been hitting better but I wouldn't think of putting him in the same class as Tulowitzki. I think if Goins can stick in the MLB as a good utility player, playing in about 100 games per year, then he will have maximized his talent and succeeded in the MLB.

Today's lineup from Shi Davidi's Twitter: and another showing just the Blue Jays lineup, but including bench players with Pennington, from the Blue Jays twitter:

This sounds like a fair and informative assessment. Not many teams have star players at all positions, so I think that the Blue Jays have enough impact players at other positions to still be collectively a playoff team.

Thank you for the information. Do you know if he will be in New York today. I guess we will know once we see his name on the lineup sheet. Has Kawasaki been sent back to Buffalo?

How long will it take to know if Pennington has cleared waivers? I know nothing about the waiver process.

There is no question that the umpires poor strike calling affected the game. The Blue Jays as a whole have become very patient at the plate, so it throws them off when the umpire can't call balls and strikes reliably.

Things are looking good right now. Who would have thought 10 days ago that the Blue Jays would get to 60 wins with only 52 losses. If the Blue Jays continue to do well against the Yankees for the remainder of the year then I think another 30 wins (and 20 losses) might win the East division.

First Travis hurts himself with a big swing and now Edwin (but hopefully Edwin is ok). Nice hit Edwin.

The Blue Jays have quite a few players that look tired, Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Martin and even Goins (no insults please ). Without Travis, Pennington will be important. Navarro will be important for giving Martin rest days.

Still need more.

Smoaked it.