nextyear

The Blue Jays managed to pull out the game anyway. I was just pointing it out, it seemed funny to me to see the manager yawning just before the game, I can't imagine seeing it in hockey or football.

Even though Troy Tulowitzki has a OBP of only .257 and SLG of .290 over the past 15 games, he still helps the team to win games with his greatly improved defense over Reyes. Tulowitzki's defense should continue to be exceptional and his offense will most certainly get much better. Now that Tulowitzki has been a Blue Jay for almost a month, it is easy to see that it has been a great trade for the Blue Jays.

Gibbons in the post game interview looked very tired. He was also yawning at the start of the game. Maybe it is jet-lag, but luckily he isn't out there playing on the field.

But he allowed the Blue Jays to use up too many of their future runs in one night

Zaun just said that if the season ended today that Donaldson should win the MVP. He should be ashamed like so many other Blue Jays fans (sarcasm intended). Zaun has become like a fish out of water; flip flopping away. However, Zaun is fun to listen to, so it is hard to dislike the guy. I even thought he was Canadian for some reason, but he was born in California so maybe that is why he seems to like the Angels.

Colabello might make a MLB first baseman yet. Good on the Blue Jays coaches for working with Colabello on his first base fielding. Great game by Colabello, Donaldson, Estrada and the rest of the Blue Jays.

Pennington is starting to look like Goins. Buck seems to be confused (but how cares at this point)

In 50 years Goins will be able to tell his grand kids that he pinch hit for Donaldson and got a base hit. Donaldson might be in the Hall of Fame by then (you never know).

Zaun really flip flopped over the past day. He even went so far as to say that Trout has under-performed and has a .200 average over the past 2 weeks. (I am PVRing this telecast, so I am sure that I heard it correctly). However, I can understand your disbelief.

Zaun should be ashamed for suggesting that Donaldson would win the MVP over Trout if the season ended today. What is the world coming to? (sarcasm intended).

Here is the Blue Jays lineup from Shi Davidi's twitter -

Donaldson was more valuable than Trout in last night's 9-2 win by the Blue Jays over the Angels. In spite of what Zaun said, I am not ashamed to think that Donaldson should be MVP for this season. There are still 40 games left, so the MVP award is still up in the air, but Donaldson has one foot in the door

Probably the last inning for Dickey with his at-bat coming up in the top of the 6th inning. Hopefully he will pitch well this inning. Wonder who will pinch hit for Dickey next inning?

I am worried about this game. The Blue Jays need to pretend that they are playing the Yankees again.

Pompey is playing in cf for Buffalo against Rochester tonight. So far he is 0 for 3 with a strikeout, but that is baseball. Here is a link to the Gameday - http://www.milb.com/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2015_08_17_bufaaa_rocaaa_1&mode=gameday

The Yankees must be happy to not be playing the Blue Jays. They can score a bunch of runs again; 5 runs so far in the 3rd inning. I hope it will be the same for the Blue Jays tomorrow in Philadelphia and the Blue Jays will get a bunch of runs. I don't think the Blue Jays hitters are in a slump, they have just faced too many tough pitchers the past two weeks.

I unashamedly voted for BBBB, partly because I smile every time I see his funny avatar.

This sounds reasonable. One source that I found claims to have compared actual wins versus the total team WAR over a period of 10 years for all 30 teams each year (300 data points) and plotted the results. He fit an equation of Actual Wins = (0.973826 * total_team_WAR) + 48.533 wins, which is considered to be significant since 48 wins corresponds to a team made up of all Replacement level players (or in other words, total_team_WAR = 0). The article is at this link - http://stats.seandolinar.com/predicting-baseball-wins-with-war/. The author, Sean Dolinar, did the analysis of the WAR wins and also compared it with Pythagorean equation. For the WAR analysis the author, Sean Dolinar, states that the 95 percent confidence level is 20 wins (it appears to be approximately ± 10 wins of the calculated team WAR + 48, since it appears to be a fairly normal distribution based on the data he provided). The following quote is from the article: "The actual implementation of WAR works really well to predict teams wins. Unfortunately, this model will have a 95% prediction interval of 20 wins. That seems like a lot but, it shows how much luck has to do with a baseball season.". Here is the resulting plot (below) for the actual wins versus WAR over a 10 year period, using the fangraphs WAR values. Note: the article has an interactive plot with clickable data points. http://imagizer.imageshack.us/a/img661/870/l1ujFX.png

Thank you for this thoughtful reply.

I agree with the rationale of Sabermetrics. I followed the game back in the early 1970's when on-base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG) weren't even mentioned on TV and radio broadcasts, even though it was realized by a few that it was a better measure than batting average going back as far as the 1950's - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slugging_percentage. (before I was even born) There is little question that Sabermetric stats such as OBP and SLG (to mention just a couple) provide far more information than just batting average or home run totals as was commonly provided on broadcasts 40 years ago. However, not all Sabermetrics are justifiable and some are even disputed by people such as Bill James, who is one of the pioneers of Sabermetrics. I posted this short article in the General Thread - http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/29/bill-james-not-a-statistical-guru-not-impressed-by-war/ There is also a question and answer session that is posted by ESPN - http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/3503 Since this thread isn't intended to discuss the validity of all Sabermetric statistics, is there a separate thread for discussing the validity of ones such as WAR and FIP?. I believe in most of Sabermetric stats but there are few that I don't believe in (or more accurately, I question their reliability as predictive values). If Bill James can question some Sabermetrics such as WAR then I am not stupid or an idiot to do so also (as some have suggested in another thread). In short, is there a separate thread to discuss the validity of some of the Sabermetrics?

The lineup has been posted on the Blue Jays Twitter page - https://twitter.com/bluejays. Everyone knows how big this game is. A loss will be very deflating whereas a win will show that the Blue Jays really have the talent to win the AL East. Hutchison will have to have a big game today.

Yes, I agree. Just from watching him play and not really looking at any statistics it seems like he is one of the leaders on the team and has contributed greatly to the team's success.

I found this interesting article that quotes Bill James, who was a pioneer of Sabermetrics (derived from the acronym SABR from Society for American Baseball Research), that is titled - Bill James: not a “statistical guru,” not impressed by WAR - http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/29/bill-james-not-a-statistical-guru-not-impressed-by-war/ The following is an abstract from the short article: And you wanna know what else? He’s not at all impressed by Wins Above Replacement (WAR), the stat that has become a proxy in the larger battle between stat-oriented people and traditional baseball people: “Well, my math skills are limited and my data-processing skills are essentially nonexistent. The younger guys are way, way beyond me in those areas. I’m fine with that, and I don’t struggle against it, and I hope that I don’t deny them credit for what they can do that I can’t. “But because that is true, I ASSUMED that these were complex, nuanced, sophisticated systems. I never really looked; I just assumed that the details were out of my depth. But sometime in the last year I was doing some research that relied on these WAR systems, so I took a look at them, and … they’re not very impressive. They’re not well thought through; they haven’t made a convincing effort to address many of the inherent difficulties that the undertaking presents. They tend to get so far into the data, throw up their arms and make a wild guess. I don’t know if I’m going to get the time to do better of it, or if it will be left to others, but … we’re not at anything like an end point here. I assumed that these systems were a lot better than they actually are.” Bill James seems like rational person who loves baseball. He was also instrumental in analysing baseball stats and realizing the limitations of some stats such as batting average and developing a better stat called secondary average - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_average (amongst many others) I like most of the new Sabermetric statistics. However, I agree with Bill James, in that I am not really impressed by WAR since the metric supposes to determine wins better than a replacement level player. However, I believe that when separated into offensive WAR and defensive WAR it gives an additional indicator of a players performance in each category (as opposed to believing that it actually determines win contribution). Although Bill James was a pioneer of Sabermetrics, he doesn't seem to be a Sabermetrics extremist.

Excellent idea. Anyone who wants to post on this forum will surely be willing to wait 24 hours. That would cut down on the trolling accounts. It would also eliminate people from creating a new account within minutes of being banned.

Equality is important. A very thick skin is also very important. I hope that if another moderator is added it will be someone who understands Sabermetrics but tempers that knowledge with an enjoyment of the game of baseball, which is played by humans and anything can happen on any day. In other words, I hope it won't be a fundamentalist Sabermetrics extremist; if it is, I am sure that I will be permanently banned on his/her very first day.