glory

Horowitz and Barger should be replacing Vogelbach and Biggio on the roster. Whatever order they want to make those changes is up to them, but that should be goal.

Clement is out of options, so don't think it will be him given how Atkins usually looks at depth. Logically it really doesn't make sense to have all of Vlad, Turner, Vogelbach, and Horowitz on the same team, even if Horowitz can cosplay at 2B/LF occasionally. Clement at the very least looks like he can be a competent platoon IF, and Biggio is beloved by the Jays org for reasons I can't really wrap my head around. It will be Vogelbach most likely.

If that's the case, then DeMarlo Hale might have to manage tonight. I don't think JS would be able to hold it together for the first 24 hours after hearing the news. But realistically, I think it's more likely to be the end of Danny Burgers, unless Biggio can be sent down. We shall see.

With the team playing Horowitz at 2B in the minors, that would make sense. Clement at least hits LHP so he has some value to the club. Biggio's only value comes from being Craig's son.

What's crazy is Vlad killed fastballs as recently as 2022 (.586 SLG and .403 xwOBA against 4SFB's that year). It's gotten progressively worse since despite exit velocity, hard hit rate, etc, still being excellent. There's not a doubt in my mind now that the next team Vlad is on will unlock his potential.

Only way I see the Jays realistically making the playoffs is if they remain close in mid July (like 1-2 back of the WC3), and then go 2015 AA at the deadline. The roster as is ain't it, and even replacing some dead weight with Horowitz and Barger (assuming Atkins remembers they exist) probably won't move the needle that much. They need a big move that adds impact (ex. Luis Robert type).

Yeah the KK signing was the most egregious one of the off season, with Turner 2nd. IKF, while an overpay, at least made sense given positional need. The Jays literally have no one anywhere in the org who looks like a capable 3B. They had a great defensive CF already in Varsho, and Horowitz in AAA who they could have platooned at DH with a cheap RHB off the bench.

I wonder what the O's would give up for Kikuchi? If there's any team with expendable minor league position player depth, it's them.

Your Braves comparison is not applicable here. You're comparing a 2 month sample size (Braves) to something going on 2 years now (Jays). No one was questioning the Jays offensive strategy at this time in 2023 because the sample was small enough to where more people were expecting things to turn around than questioning whether there was an issue. Now it does feel like a real issue. If the Braves are still hitting like this 12 months from now, I don't think they'd promote their existing coaches, but who knows. I think you're taking the "idolized Mattingly" thing a little too seriously. My point is Atkins is old school (he only looks like a nerd), and promoting Donnie Baseball after what we saw in 2023 made absolutely no sense. This contact heavy approach is all over the organization, so it's not even Donnie in isolation, it's the entire org, that's why it's hard to pinpoint what exactly the issue is or how/why it started. I don't think it's as simple as "the players who used to be really good all just began sucking in their mid 20's". There is a reason why this team hasn't developed a good position player since Bo/Vlad other than Davis Schneider, and they literally had him sitting on the bench for Cavan Biggio in April. I don't think it's pinned down to "1 thing". I just like talking s*** about Mattingly, but it's all over the org, and if change happens, it has to happen everywhere, not just at the big league level.

IKF on the 2015 Jays or 2021-22 Jays would have been much better. He’s a good utility piece on a team that doesn’t need offense. He’s just a bad fit for this team due to their offensive issues.

Preparation, approach, everything seems off with the hitters since 2023. I tend to agree it’s not all on the players. Something is not right within the org. Atkins being a former minor leaguer in the 90s probably idolized Don Mattingly, so that’s his idea of fixing this offense, and it’s simply not going to work in 2024. They need to do an org wide shift in offensive philosophy/training. If Donaldson has any interest in coaching, then hire him or someone who shares his views on hitting.

IKF had a 157 PA stretch in 2023 where he had a 133 wRC+. He finished the season exactly where he usually does. I'd be surprised if he's significantly better than what he normally is by the end of the season. If that leads to a 2 WAR because of defense, then I'm not sure if that's much of a flex, but certainly a useful player. More useful to a good team, though.

They fixed O’Hearn (or he became better somehow) and then gave him more playing time. He’s more comparable to someone like Clement than Vogelbach/Turner. Regardless, the fact that they spent $15m on Turner/Vogelbach (what was their combined projection, 1 WAR?) instead of just playing the 26 year old DH they had on their roster making $700k is pretty indicative of what I’m talking about. I understand the depth and options component to all of this but it’s kind of meaningless when the depth are the ones with potential and the big leaguers (KK, Turner, Craig’s son, Vogelbach, etc) are fungible no upside talent making a combined $30m. There’s a disconnect somewhere. Or the org wasn’t being genuine about wanting “waves of talent”.

I think what’s more frustrating is that they are playing Vlad at 3B now, which opens up 1B and DH, but that configuration is being done so that 150 year old Turner and Vogelbach can be in the lineup at the same time. The Orioles manipulate lineups and positions to play actual prospects, while the Jays do it for guys who will be retired or sign a MiLB deal after this season. Horowitz, Barger, and Martinez are not on the level of the O’s prospects, but playing them over 0-1 WAR talent seems like kind of a no brainer for a club that wants “waves of prospects”.

One thing I remember about 2015, that rings more true today, is Cleveland fans on social media celebrating Shapiro leaving. I didn't understand it at the time, but boy does it make sense now.

He has an option for 2025 as well. Dude will be 28 before he gets a chance somewhere.

When has Atkins ever sold high on a Major League talent? He sells high on minor league talent that end up being trash anyway, but I don’t recall a single time where a player with team control was overachieving/playing well and the team decided to sell high. Maybe I’m forgetting someone. I’m not sure IKF would have much value regardless, but even if he did, it’s more likely the team views him as 3B depth next season than a trade chip. Would be pretty slick if they could trade him and get something useful, though. I just don’t see it, both because of his trade value and because Atkins probably has no interest in doing it. Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, Richards, Turner, KK. Those are probably the trade chips. If Atkins trades anyone controlled through 2025, then he’s become a changed man.

The argument was "there was nothing Atkins could do" to fix the offense, which if true, leads to a bunch of other questions that directly fall on Atkins' feet. If the core wasn't good enough then he could have pivoted. Maybe trade Bo, or Vlad, or Romano, or whoever. Switch the core up. He didn't do that. If the FA market sucked, then he could have filled holes internally, at least the ones with obvious candidates available (ex. Horowitz, possibly Barger). My point wasn't that Atkins was the only GM that overpaid players (though I don't think Teoscar falls under that category, that's a separate discussion), but rather that if the options available to him all sucked, then he spent $40m in a market that had no chance of putting the team over the top, so either way that puts him in a bad light. Realistically, if the Jays had signed Teoscar and Hoskins (just using examples brought up before), then even if they still fell short of a contender, at least those moves would have made sense given the team's needs (mainly power). Doubling down on defense when a big part of 2023's success came from completely unsustainable pitcher health (and in some cases performance) was not the right path, and many people said as much at the time, especially since it was reasonable to expect that all of KK, IKF, and Turner would be downgrades offensively from 2023 KK, Chapman, and Belt (though IKF has done well so far). Then the one area where defense was irrelevant and they needed a middle of the order bat, they went with 100 year old Justin Turner and the one player in the league who makes 2020 Vlad look like Hercules by comparison. Again, if the argument is the Jays realistically could not have signed anyone that could have turned this team into a true contender, then no disagreement from me. The moment they promoted Mattingly you got the sense that the team didn't view 2023 as an issue but rather a blip, which has been proven wrong this season. However, I'm not sure that argument really makes Atkins look better. Ultimately the biggest issue with the team as we have mentioned a million times is player development, so what Atkins did in the off season was basically irrelevant to the larger issues with this team.

The Jays spent about $40m on IKF/KK/Turner/Vogelbach this winter, in a weak FA market where players (when they weren't settling for MiLB deals) were signing for peanuts. Even if you truly believe that there was "no way Atkins could have fixed the offense", which presents another set of questions (like why the hell didn't he retool if there was no way to fix this?), then he set fire to $40m and put the Jays in the CBT territory again (which will lead to further penalties with picks and int'l signings) for a team that was never going to be good enough. If he pocketed that money and put Horowitz at DH (with a cheap RHB to platoon with him), Barger at 3B/LF, etc, would the team be that much worse (or worse at all)? Atkins is to blame regardless of how you want to look at it, whether anyone is defending him or not. If the FA market sucks and it isn't worth spending money on it, then....don't spend. Problem solved. Spending $40m in a market where 1-2 WAR players were signing for $2m AAV's and then saying "there was nothing he could have done" is more damning of Atkins than it is anything else. Ultimately, I agree with MikeM about the process, not necessarily the core, being the issue. If they don't want to rebuild then change the org structure (hitting coaches/philosophy, etc) and see if there is more juice to be squeezed out of the young players rather than just assuming they are unfixable because they decided to turn into singles hitters the moment they locked eyes for Don Mattingly.

If Atkins was a true seller (he won’t be), then he will definitely hedge on any trades. So if he traded Bichette next month (he won’t), then it would be for Luciano and change, for example, so he’d have an MLB ready player to replace Bichette. If Shatkins’ last time selling is any indication, then replace Luciano with Trey Sweeney for a more accurate MLB ready return but you get the point. I wouldn’t mind keeping Vlad and working on an extension with him, but keeping Bichette is insanity if they fall out of it. They even have a SS prospect in AAA who could be adequate.

Shatkins was in this exact same position around this time in 2017, an old team at the end of its competitive window coming off 3+ million in attendance the previous season. We saw what they did. They've either learned their lesson or they'll prove to be believers in the definition of insanity. I think we all know which direction they will choose.

Turner is going to have a negative wRC+ against RHP at this rate. Just call up Spence and use Turner as a lefty masher.

I doubt this is more than a 1 game thing, unless he looks like Scott Rolen defensively today. With that said, with the way the season has gone and looks like it will go in the next couple of weeks, why not? Just run with it going forward. It's not like they have a great 3B option anywhere in the org.

Desperation is very apparent.

Giants and Dodgers both need a SS. Would be irresponsible to keep Bo at this point.