glory

Since July 5: NYY: 24-18 (---) TOR: 25-19 (---) TAM: 21-22 (3.5) BAL: 20-24 (5.0) BOS: 19-24 (5.5) Even going back a bit further, it's actually pretty close all the way around. Since May 19: NYY: 46-39 (---) BAL: 48-41 (---) BOS: 45-40 (1.0) TOR: 46-43 (2.0) TAM: 40-44 (5.5) The Jays have a negative run differential in both stretches, though nothing crazy bad. A .500ish team based on their existing talent level is probably right.

Santander would probably be more appealing to the Jays than Alonso. Should be (a lot) cheaper and is a switch hitter. The Jays badly need power in the lineup. I’d honestly be fine with Vlad at 3B and Horwitz at 1B at this point. If Vlad is extended then they could always move him back to 1B down the line but if not extended then just put the best possible lineup you can out there if the intention is to contend. Vlad at 3B is likely part of the best lineup they can realistically field even if he’s bad defensively. Contract year playing the position he’s always wanted to play, I’d take that gamble as long as they spend wisely on another bat.

Only way I see Bichette moved is if the relationship between him and the org is fractured. Otherwise, as much as I fear his offensive profile and lower body injuries, he's the only player aside from Vlad with 4 WAR potential on the roster. Well, I guess Varsho too, but that's almost entirely on defense. If they want to contend in 2025, then Bichette probably gives them the best shot. Although I wouldn't be against starting Jimenez at SS and trading Bo to fill other areas. That may not be the best way to maximize 2025 wins but probably a better move long term depending on what Bo's trade value will look like in the winter (and what you think Jimenez could do in a full season at short). The easiest position to fill internally is going to be 2B. Jimenez and Clement are out of options, then you have Wagner, Orelvis, and maybe DS if he's fixable. One of those options (or a combination) should be able to fill that spot pretty well. It's 3B and LF that will be the trouble areas, especially 3B. Really hoping McAdoo is actually good and can stick at 3B because that position looks dire throughout the org, and I really don't want a massive Bregman contract on the books for years to come. Maybe sticking Vlad there for a year isn't the worst idea. I'd be fine with a buy low on Moncada as well but it's been a few years since he's been good.

That quote from Vlad certainly doesn't seem like something a player who is willing to take a discount would say, but who knows.

Keeping the lineup the same and just replacing players is fine but pretending it’s June from a statistical standpoint is ridiculous.

Young players who raked in the minors vs. washed vetrins. The pre deadline Jays were depressing to watch.

They are giving Loperfido a long look in LF, and JS would probably quit before he benches Springer, so I don’t think there would be much opportunity for Roden barring injury. Roden doing well is certainly a good thing though.

If Francis is simply a capable #5 caliber starter moving forward, then that would still be a huge development for the Jays. If he's better than that, then obviously it's found money. I mean it's been 9 years, they should have gotten lucky with a pitching prospect by now. Hopefully Francis is that guy.

Loperfido now has a 103 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR in 62 PA since the trade. I haven’t been paying much attention as I was on vacation this past week but he must be on some sort of heater because dude was striking out practically every time he had a bat in his hand a few weeks ago. Would be nice if he developed into something.

Judge has a real shot at 500 home runs which is nuts since he started his career at 25. He is a peak HOF’er but the counting stats were always the question due to when he came up. Let’s see where he ends up by the end of his contract. Still has 7 years left.

Francis developing into a capable back of the rotation starter would be a great outcome during this lost season. Need to see this over an extended sample though.

Presumed Innocent was a good series. Not sure that’s worth getting an Apple TV sub but I’d recommend the show itself.

I don’t think we have to worry about the Jays going on a run to .500. The bullpen is complete ass, they’ll lose a lot of winnable games down the stretch for that reason alone. With that said, getting the first pick in a year where there is a potential difference maker (Holliday) would definitely change the complexion of the org. The lottery will end up helping the Jays on that end since they don’t have to out tank anyone to have a shot at it. Would be amazing if the Jays actually succeeded at building a 2025 playoff team and ended up with the #1 pick at the same time. We can dream.

If Horwitz is a 115-120 wRC+ bat, then I think you can live with him at 1B/DH primarily. The one position you can envision the Jays being able to cobble together above average production internally is 2B (Wagner, Orelvis, DS, Jimenez, etc). They can’t do that anywhere else unfortunately. If they were set everywhere else and just needed a 2B, then yes I think Horwitz at 2B would be the right call. It may be the right call regardless (no guarantee that Wagner and others are any good), but given the team’s needs, intentions (contending), and resources, they might be better off at least initially with Horwitz as more of a 1B/DH/2B hybrid and investing in LF, 3B, rotation, etc. If they decide that they want to invest in a DH like Santander or something, then Horwitz at 2B becomes the best option, but you could argue that’s not the best use of whatever payroll wiggle room they will have.

I thought the Jays had a very good deadline all things considered but man it says a lot about the farm when the returns for a bunch of rentals were able to shoot up the team’s prospect rankings, and justifiably so.

They are going to have to trust at least a couple of young players to fill those holes next season. They simply can’t fill all of them externally. Best bet based on performance, age, and nepotism is Horwitz at DH and Wagner at 2B. If you assume those two spots are filled then you would turn your attention to LF, 3B, and catcher on the position player end. It’s harder to do that on the pitching side since they don’t have any young players who can fill those spots. Maybe Bloss but he probably needs more minor league seasoning. At least Francis is going to get a good look the rest of the way. Maybe they get lucky with him.

Shapiro's job might be safe based on how Rogers has operated recently, but as far as letting a lame duck sacrifice the future, Rogers has already done that once. They were tampering to find a replacement for Beeston/AA prior to 2015, and still allowed AA to sign Martin, trade for Tulo, etc. I don't think they'd get in Shapiro's way if he were to make some big signings this winter, as long as it fits the agreed upon payroll. With that said, Shapiro and AA are very different. I think Shapiro whether his job is safe or not will still err on the side of caution to some degree with big moves. I don't think he's taking back a Tulo contract just to get as many 2025 wins as possible and not caring about the 5 years after that, for example. Luckily the Jays system is still kinda ass even after a solid trade deadline so I don't think they'd miss anyone if they were to trade them. Maybe Nimmala, but that's it.

One thing the front office seemed reluctant to do the past few years was to sign anyone beyond 2025-26. Even last season when they were dying for offensive upgrades they went with 1 year deals or a relatively cheap 2 year deal for IKF. I doubt they'll realistically be able to fill holes this winter via free agency without accepting a 3-4 (or more) year deal for someone, possibly more than 1 player. It will be interesting to see the types of deals they sign. A front office with job security may be fine with getting the best 1 year deals they can find and then pivoting at the deadline if/when that doesn't work, but a front office that is fighting for their jobs might have different plans. The one thing the Jays really need is impact talent. This past off season was universally considered s*** because there was practically no upside to it, and the floor wasn't even that high (KK/Turner/IKF/Vogelbach). It was just short term 1 WAR filler. If that's their plan for 2025 then they might as well start their sell off in December rather than next July. If they are going to go 2015 AA, then aim as high as possible.

I also threw up a bit reading this but I don’t think there’s any chance they actually go through with a young lineup in 2025. Maybe if they are out of it in July, but definitely not to start the season. Only young player I see having an everyday role on the 2025 team is probably Horwitz, and possibly Wagner given that he’s 35 years old already. Jimenez is out of options so he’s either a bench piece or traded. My guess is they are either going to go for a home run signing, or more likely “spread the risk” with some mid tier guys like Santander. Given how much Shatkins loves depth, it wouldn’t surprise me if everyone who has options start in AAA.

Would love to see the Jays find a way to trade for Walker and put him back at 3B. He’s a horrid OF and the only other spot that might open up for him in STL is 1B with Goldschmidt a free agent. Maybe that’s their plan. I doubt the Cardinals would sell so low.

I’d be surprised if the AAV for Soto isn’t $50M. He’s a 25 year old free agent with a HOF track record already. He’s not taking less AAV than Scherzer, Verlander, etc, and with deferrals factored in Ohtani’s AAV is in the high 40’s I believe so he will try (and succeed) at clearing that given his age. Factor in Steve Cohen in the bidding and it’s going to be monster contract. I’d have no issues with the Jays signing and extending Soto and Vlad. If you’re going for stars and scrubs, then those two (assuming Vlad is fixed moving forward) are the guys to do it with. Hell the Jays actually have possible league average-ish position player depth in AAA/MLB. Between Horwitz, Jimenez, DS, Barger, Clase, Orelvis, Roden, Wagner, Loperfido, etc, you could probably find some combination that could work around Soto and Vlad. It’s just a question of whether Rogers is willing to do something like 12/600 for Soto and 11/350 for Vlad (just spitballing). That’s kinda a lot of money. I’d have no problem doing that and then having to move other pieces to save money, but it’s hard enough envisioning that type of investment from any ownership (Rogers or otherwise), much less convincing Soto to choose a last place team over both NY teams and likely the Dodgers too.

If Rogers is willing to commit a billion dollars to two players, then I'm down. It won't happen, but we can dream. At least extending Vlad is realistic. If the Jays outbid NYY/NYM/LAD for Soto, then Atkins or whoever is in charge this winter is a damn magician.

Anyone who thinks Vlad isn’t getting at least $300m if he’s putting up 2021 numbers is going to be disappointed.

I'm not sure what happened or is happening behind the scenes, but if Shapiro intended to give Click the job, then Click could have been running things at the deadline anyway with Atkins as more of a figurehead until the end of the season. Something similar probably happened during the JPR to AA transition in 2009, though I have no idea if it did or not.

My guess is he will, especially if he’s maintaining this level of performance. Obviously historically 1B are usually not given these massive contracts but I think Vlad will be one of the exceptions. Whether the Jays are the ones who give it to him is the bigger question. I would have been fine trading him this past deadline but since they didn’t and they intend to keep him for 2025, then I’m fully on the extend him train. I think I’m partially on that train because watching the Buffalo boys at the big league level and seeing just how average they look across the board makes me want to just extend any elite talent the team already has, and Vlad is the only one.