glory

Arbitration numbers are slowly coming in. So far: Pop - $900k Varsho - $8.2M

Mariners have claimed Danner. They do well with relievers so wouldn't surprise me if this one ends up looking bad.

In addition to this, the latest from Shi Davidi: "To wit, they’re staying in the game on Anthony Santander, although they’re probably not the favourite to land the switch-hitting outfielder right now. They remain engaged on Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, but are believed to be on the periphery on those fronts, and the same may hold true on Tanner Scott. The Blue Jays are also said to be actively working the trade market, which is where the centre-piece of their winter work thus far – Gimenez – came from." At this point I'm expecting the next time there is a significant Jays transaction (which will feel like a year from now by the time it happens), it will be a name no one was discussing.

There isn’t much left in free agency, especially if the Jays are having trouble attracting FAs, but this would be a pretty blah signing.

Yeah I think the farm system talk is a bit excessive. Hypothetically, if the Jays had a top 5 system in baseball, does Burnes sign here? No. He specifically wanted Arizona. Does Soto sign here? No, the Jays were not outbidding Steve Cohen. Does Teo sign here? No, he wanted to stay in LA, and realistically, the Jays probably didn't have much interest there either given that they found him expendable two years ago. The farm system is not preventing the Jays from signing players. Vlad only being around for 1 more year is probably a far bigger concern with free agents who likely don't want to spend their last few good seasons on a team with Andres Gimenez as the star player, but beyond that, it's money, years, and location. The order of those 3 things varies based on the player, but that's what it will come down to. The quality of the player also makes a difference. Burnes knew he could get money anywhere. Santander being a one dimensional player just turning 30 is far more likely to sign with the Jays due to lack of other options. Ultimately the Jays should be doing a better job with player development, and they haven't. I don't think that's the reason players are going elsewhere, though. If they extend Vlad today, with absolutely no change to their farm system quality, then I'm guessing they become at least a bit more desirable.

If he has an option left then it's a no brainer. He's a reclamation project so bring him on board, try to make whatever adjustments possible in order to maximize his bat, and see what he has. If it fails, it fails, but I legit cannot name a single catcher in the org aside from Kirk and Heineman. If there's any position they need to take these types of gambles, it's probably catcher.

Charlie Morton to the O’s on a one year deal, contract is 1/15 per Passan.

Diego Cartaya was DFA by the Dodgers. His numbers have tanked the last two seasons but he’s a former top prospect and would probably be the 2nd best catcher in the org if he came here (sadly), so might be worth a shot to see if something clicks with him. A team that has trouble drafting and developing needs to get lucky,

If that's true then the Jays should hold firm at 4/82. I don't think any team is topping 4 years, and if Santander thinks he can get a similar or higher AAV elsewhere, then so be it. This is one of the rare times where the Jays sticking to their internal evaluations and not going over might actually work. Unless I'm underestimating Tony's market, I don't see him as a 5 year contract type of FA in today's game. Sometimes you have to be willing to swallow an extra year to get the player but make sure the player is worth it. I don't think Santander qualifies. Ryu was at least a top of the rotation SP and Springer a CF, so it was a bit more justifiable even though there was risk of bad/dead money towards the end.

Yeah Bo's offensive profile is not one I'd want to trust on a long-term deal. I suspect he would have already been traded if he wasn't coming off such a down year in 2024. They have his replacement locked up, and about 100 2B as depth. I think this is a one and done with him. Vlad is the one they have to make the decision on. Bo's likely one foot out the door already. Have to hope money is a great motivator here.

Vlad in his early to mid 20's is already a bad defensive 1B and either the worst baserunner in baseball or very close to it. That typically doesn't get better with age, and after he gets his big contract, can you be sure that motivation is not going to be an issue? I have no doubt that Vlad's bat has the potential to be special for many more years but if he wants to be one of the highest paid players in the game and feels his value is close to Soto's, then the Jays have a very tough decision to make. Either give him that money and live with the risk involved, or move on. If Vlad was a legit 3B, or OF, or any position with real value, and wasn't a complete sink hole on the bases then the case for a record deal would be a little bit better, but a bad defensive/baserunning 1B/DH for that term and dollar amount is scary.

Vlad was quoted as saying he thinks he’s the best hitter in baseball or something to that effect during the 2024 season. If Soto got $800M, then no chance Vlad is settling for half of that, especially if he thinks he can have another elite season in 2025 and enter the market next winter with both NY teams and Boston needing/wanting him. I don’t think there is a number that Shapiro will be comfortable with. Rogers is a different story but they’ve been pretty hands off with baseball stuff under Shapiro. Trading Vlad if he can’t be extended and using that money to sign Alonso (even though he wouldn’t be my first choice) would be the first sign of a real plan by this regime in at least 12 months. I’ve said before you don’t have to rebuild but you do have to maximize assets that are not long term pieces. They did that with Teo, whether you agree or disagree with that trade. They didn’t view him as a long term piece and traded him for the best deal they could get and used the saved money to replace him. That should be done here if the two sides are that far off.

Of all the "Blue Jays are the front runners for" rumors/BS out there this winter, this one seems like the most believable.

Yeah I mean at this point the front office only cares about 2025 wins so having a $20M AAV vet DH after 2025 when they are likely rebuilding isn't going to do much harm. The question is whether Santander's 2025 is worth not only the draft pick but the possible bad money towards the end? I'm not sure his 2025 season is going to move the needle that much unless there are more moves in addition to that. Someone like Bregman makes more sense if they only want 2025 wins and are willing to eat any potential dead money afterwards (they probably won't be around to deal with it anyway, at least Atkins won't), but a 6-7 year deal for a 31 year old who already showed signs of decline before pen hit paper doesn't seem like a smart idea regardless of team direction. At least Santander you might get for 4 years from ages 30-33, which is more reasonable than ages 31-36 or 31-37.

I want no part of Santander unless it’s a very short term deal (3 years or less, which it won’t be) but at this point the Jays don’t have much choice if they want to upgrade the 2025 roster, at least from a power standpoint. If they miss on Santander then there really isn’t much left. I guess the idea of adding Austin Hays and JD Martinez would work if the goal is to sell at the deadline (which they might do regardless of what happens this winter) but if they actually want to legitimately try to put a playoff contender out there then Santander is the best FA option they have. Or at least the safest one.

AA and Shapiro are like oil and water. No chance they would have worked well together, though in theory I agree it could have worked if Shapiro stayed away from baseball decisions. Shapiro just handling Rogers and AA having full autonomy would have been fun, though AA pre-Dodgers was not the same guy he is now. I just don’t think Shapiro is hands off, and certainly wouldn’t have been with AA.

Agreed on the payroll part but being “gifted Vlad” is probably a bit misleading. Vlad has been on the team for six seasons. Two of them were elite (2021, 2024). Two of them were replacement level quality (2019-20). One was very good but not elite (2022). One was a 1 WAR season (2023). If Shatkins was gifted Juan Soto then that would have been a different story, but in the 2 years the Jays made the non-Covid playoffs, Vlad’s combined WAR in those two seasons was below 5.0. He simply hasn’t been a great player enough times. They won because of moves around him most of the years he has been under team control. The 2023 team in particular almost won 90 games with Vlad as a 1.3 WAR player. Atkins deserves every criticism he gets but I think those 2020-23 teams were largely on the backs of players Atkins acquired, not the ones he inherited. That comes down to your other point, which was money/payroll. Without that, this team would have wasted way more of the Vlad/Bo years.

Shapiro is clearly not a good executive if he’s making the exact same mistake twice within 8 years and expecting different results. If he’s cunning enough to get Rogers to spend into the luxury tax then he should be able to convince them to cut bait one year early rather than wait until the bottom falls out. In 2017-18 at least the team was coming off their most memorable run in 20+ years. This current run had better regular season results over a 3-4 year stretch but fans are not going to be clamoring for 2021-23 nostalgia any time soon. If Vlad can’t be extended, then make the damn trade and move forward.

I would have taken Torres at 1/15 over Gimenez at 5/100 (close to it) but obviously this FO has a specific skillset that they like, and Torres isn’t it. I think Bregman might be a real possibility now. I don’t see many other options for him unless the Tigers are still on the market for a 3B, which they might be.

With the Jays needing a DH, this was exactly the type of move they should have been making. Either he still sucks or you catch lightning in a bottle, but either way it's no risk. Maybe they are saving that for Moncada.

Vlad is only 25 and is already one of the worst baserunners and defensive players in the league. If he had Soto's offensive track record then it would have been more justifiable, but he doesn't, and $400-500M for just his bat without that track record is incredibly risky. I can understand the hesitation. Unfortunately this FO has been awful with player development. If they had prospects ready to come up and compensate for losing Vlad then it would have been easier to cut bait. On top of that they don't want to trade him, either because of ownership or because of their own agenda to maximize 2025 wins for job security (probably both), so they won't even sell high in a trade.

If you thought the Jays under Ash and JP had more hope than a team that was seen (in hindsight wrongly) to be a possible World Series contender during this run (2022 in particular), then we will have to agree to disagree. Actual results favor Atkins, and pre-season hype (even though they never lived up to it) goes to Atkins, too. I mean, I'm not going to tell you that you were wrong to feel more hopeful during Ash/JP's time, if that's how you felt then that's fine, but objectively, the results don't match that feeling.

I want Shatkins gone so it pains me to have to defend them here, but romanticizing Gord Ash and JP Ricciardi’s time, especially in contrast to 2020-24, is insane. The 2021 team won 91 games and finished 4th place in their own division. The 2022 team had the 3rd best record in the AL. The 2023 was the most frustrating offensive performance I’ve seen on a good team and they still won 89 games in a season where 14 MLB players alone had a higher WAR than Vlad and Bo combined. Yes they had to spend to compensate for their weaknesses, but whatever. They weren’t trading a borderline HOF with cash attached for Robert Person, or letting what should have been a franchise cornerstone go and reallocating that money to Erik Hanson, or replacing one of the greatest hitters in franchise history with the corpse of Corey Koskie. They’ve by all accounts been in on major free agents, and this FO is the only one that has ever gotten Rogers to spend like they should be spending. I get wanting Shatkins gone, I’m in the same boat, they have overstayed their welcome and change is needed, but longing for the days of Ash and JP is a step too far.

Yeah realistically if they acquired Naylor then they likely had to DH one of them regularly, or put Vlad at 3B full time, and they probably didn’t want to do either of those things. Naylor is more realistic as Vlad’s replacement next year if he leaves. The Jays are either legitimately in on Burnes or are waiting out the Teo/Tony markets because as more backup options start going elsewhere it leaves them in a very difficult spot.

I have no idea who the FO is going to end up getting, which is kinda terrifying after last winter. Players are signing/getting traded elsewhere, and the logical options are starting to shrink.