glory

If this happens, then Bellinger to the Yankees is likely the next step.

Their first big move this off season was as much a 2026-beyond move as it was a 2025 upgrade, as Gimenez is likely the starting SS from 2026-onwards. So far Atkins has not been operating in a way that dictates his job is on the line. Even if they end up giving Burnes $250m, it's a move that impacts future teams just as much as 2025 since Bassitt would need to be replaced after this season, and the Jays aren't exactly a pitching factory when it comes to development. I think we will know if Atkins is more "2014-15 AA" if he overpays Santander. That seems like purely a 2025 move with limited upside in future seasons. Gimenez you could at least envision being a 3 WAR SS moving forward, with potential for more if his bat is around league average. As you said I don't think either ownership or the FO wants to rebuild, but so far they haven't gone too deep the other way either. It would help if we knew what Shapiro's long term future with the club actually is. My guess is Atkins is more in danger of losing his job than Shapiro is, but hard to get a read one way or the other given what has happened so far. They haven't traded any of their top prospects (yet) or made a short term "f the future" signing. They basically made a Varsho 2.0 trade and a simple RP signing. I guess it's possible they truly believe this approach is going to work as they haven't really deviated from what they did in 2023 and 2024.

Yeah, Teo signed for 1/23.5 last season (granted, deferred AAV is lower than that), and then proceeded to have a much better season in 2024. I think it will take at least $25m AAV to sign him. That's probably why the Dodgers are balking. They don't need him that much. The Jays do. Whether Atkins would go 4/100 is anyone's guess, but if the alternative is f'n Santander on a 5-6 year deal, then give Teo whatever the hell he wants for 4 years.

I don’t think this has anything to do with Boras. X/Twitter has become a cesspool of randoms who want to troll by acting like they have sources. If they happen to guess right once then they suddenly gain credibility in the eyes of some rumor hungry baseball fans. I don’t think Boras is leaking this to randoms. If Heyman (notorious Boras boot licker) said the Jays had a $250m offer, then it would be more likely to be a Boras leak. This is just some dude throwing s*** at the wall. If he’s right, then he can make up another rumor 12 months from now that gets engagement. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah I don’t believe this at all. Wouldn’t mind if it were true, especially if it’s followed up by a Bassitt trade (bad feeling he’s going to fall off hard next season), but I think Burnes ends up in SF.

Yeah that doesn't seem like a great haul for the White Sox. Time to trade for Robert.

Yeah this is the move to make, IMO. Not a high floor but probably the highest ceiling the Jays could realistically acquire, and as you said contract is very team friendly. Just a matter of what the White Sox are looking for in return, or if he’s even available. Although if I had to put my Ross Atkins hat on, I’m going to guess he trades for someone like LaMonte Wade, given his lefty bat and offensive profile.

Honestly if the Jays are not a desirable FA destination, then moves like that are probably the way to go. Buy low on controllable “expensive” players with 4 WAR ceilings and hope they can be fixed.

Maybe they are only willing to do it for a handful of players because they don't trust Atkins to spend it otherwise. That's the only thing I can think of. After spending $50m on Vogelbach/IKF/KK/Turner/Green, I'm not sure I disagree with Rogers if that's their logic. With that said, yeah it's a pretty stupid mindset either way. Ownership is expecting Shatkins to turn this into a contender in 2025. They can't do that without a lot of money. If they somehow can't sign any of the handful of players that would cause a payroll increase, and payroll isn't going to increase because of that, then what the hell are we doing? It's not like top FA's with options are going to be flocking to the Jays. A few years ago this was a team on the rise with two emerging stars. That's not the case anymore. Spending, and spending big, is all they have left.

Trading Horwitz is a nothing burger. At best he’s a platoon 1B with moderate/average power. If he’s a 2 WAR type that’s fine but nothing worth losing sleep over. The issue is getting Gimenez, and more specifically his contract, in return. I’m sure they view his bat as being closer to league average, but that’s not worth nearly $100m. Only positive I can think of is Gimenez is far more likely to put up a 4 WAR next season than Horwitz is (or any of the internal 2B options), even if it will be driven by defense and base running, so wins added are wins added. On another team this deal might have made more sense but not on a team that has way too many offensive holes. Now if they blow their loads on Burnes then it makes the payroll situation a bit more tricky to navigate through. Maybe they move Bassitt in that scenario, or as mentioned maybe they have a Bo trade in the works. I guess I’ll wait for the end result but so far a Jimi + this trade off season wasn’t worth the 6 weeks of radio silence we experienced after the World Series ended.

Gimenez makes $10m in 2025 but has a $15m CBT hit, so not sure how much money the Jays actually have left to spend but it can't be enough to get Burnes + 2 hitters. I have no idea what the plan is here, other than having a Bo replacement in 2026.

If this is leading to a Bichette trade, then that's really the only way this makes any sense. Gimenez with a 90-100 wRC+ should be a damn valuable player at 2B, but it's not what this team needs. If he's a SS and Bo is traded to fill another hole with someone more controllable, then you could at least squint hard enough to see some direction.

Nick Mitchell is included in the deal. So it's Horwitz and Mitchell for Gimenez and Sandlin. No cash involved. Per BNS.

Am I reading his contract details correctly? 10-15-23-23-23, and then a $2.5m buyout. That contract is horrendous for the type of player he is, unless they can unlock some offensive potential in him. Only makes sense if he's the next SS on this team, otherwise paying this much for a defense-first 2B is awful.

Burnes probably getting a 9 year deal at this point. I know one GM who might desperate enough to do it.

First instinct was hoping it was false so gut reaction is not liking the deal, mainly due to Jimi coming off injury. Let’s see how they allocate the rest of the available payroll. Also let’s hope first half 2024 Garcia is legit.

Another team willing to give Romano his projected arb number definitely makes the move to non tender him a bit more puzzling. Obviously we don't know anything about his medicals or what the Jays were looking at but the Phillies (who have done really well with relievers lately) seem to think it was worth the investment, and they likely don't do that if his arm was mush. If you thought the Moreno glazing was annoying the last two years, I can't imagine what Jays social media will be like if Romano bounces back.

Romano getting $7.75m, which was MLBTR's projection for his 2025 arbitration number.

I don't know about Profar getting that much, but agreed on Teo and Santander. Those two will be the back up plans for the teams that missed on Soto. The Dodgers were never truly in on him (anyone who doesn't take deferrals is dead to them apparently) but Red Sox and Yankees are going to pick up the best of what's left most likely. I think the Jays end up disgustingly overpaying for someone, but it's hard to figure out which player that will be. Could easily see Bregman or Santander, but depends on what their markets are.

No deferrals. Wow. Jays probably had to get to $800m to beat that, and there's no guarantee Cohen wouldn't have just matched that too. He was always going to be a Met.

Berrios' player options are at $25m per year. I know the market for SP's is sky high now but I'd still be pretty surprised if he opts out. Obviously what he does in 2025-26 will be a big factor in that decision.

Yeah no position player other than Soto is all that appealing to me on long, expensive contracts. Best case if the Jays do in fact give out a stupid contract is it goes to Burnes or Fried (obviously assuming Soto is out). Those two pitchers on 7 year deals probably wont age well either but at least it’s a position of extreme weakness in the organization. A short term oriented off season with an emphasis on upside (and not whatever last winter was) would definitely be the best way to go given the market. I just don’t think the front office will operate like that. Not this winter. Unless Shapiro’s already been extended and we haven’t heard anything yet.

I think it's the opposite. They'll massively overpay a free agent. It remains to be seen which one it is, I'm sure they'll aim as high as possible and see which FA is willing to take their deal, but I can't imagine they'll be hunting value this winter. They'll go for the biggest FA they can get.

Fisher predictably spending money the second the A's officially leave Oakland. Good news is, the market has made Chris Bassitt very tradable (even though they won't move him). Bad news is, the Jays better be prepared to flirt with a payroll between $275-300m if they actually want to improve the team this winter. Market is looking expensive.