glory

Vlad has every incentive in the world to be motivated this season. He's going to be the top FA in the class, and he knows another non-elite season is going to hurt his value significantly. Obviously we've been down this road before (JD in 2018) and didn't get the desired result, but Vlad at 26 and Bo at 27 playing for their first big contracts means you're probably getting max effort out of both. In Vlad's case, max effort still means he's going to suck defensively and on the bases. That's just the type of player he is.

That's my stance as well. I think the FO is completely reasonable in not wanting to meet Vlad's demands, which I'm guessing were super high after the Soto contract. Vlad has no defensive value or value on the bases, he's had 2 great seasons in 6 years (mixed with some very mediocre ones), and there have been issues with his conditioning since he was 20. Not wanting to give that type of player $500M plus over a decade plus doesn't seem like an unreasonable stance. The issue is the lack of decisiveness. They literally operated this exact same way in 2017, saw it fail miserably from a trade return standpoint, and are making the exact same mistake. The Astros had a much more compelling case to keep Tucker for one more year given their recent success and place on the win curve, but they made a decisive decision. The Jays have more reason to trade Vlad in a Tucker style trade, but instead are operating as if they (and not Houston) are coming off 8 straight playoff appearances and 2 WS titles in that span. The Jays are literally coming off a last place finish with a bottom 10 farm system. If they knew they couldn't extend Vlad, then he should have been traded months ago.

This is why keeping a lame duck front office was a bad idea. They have zero reason to care about anything other than 2025, so trading Vlad and hurting the 2025 team (even if it helps the 2026-beyond teams) wouldn’t be in their best interest. The only other option then would be an extension but they are extremely committed to their own internal valuations/plan, and Vlad has no reason to compromise when every big market team will be after him this winter, so there was very little chance this was ever going to lead to an extension. It’s strange that if both Vlad and Bo are still on the team by the end of 2025, then I actually think Bo is more likely to come back. I don’t see a clear market for him as a shortstop.

That's why I don't see this coming together. It's numbers vs emotion, and say whatever you want about Shatkins, but they don't operate on emotion. They will stick to their perceived valuation or plan almost every single time. This is a deal that Ed will have to come in and override the front office, or Vlad will have to bring his asking price down (which he has no reason to). I think there is logic behind a mild overpay, let's say $450M or something like that, even acknowledging that it won't age well, but if it's $500M or more, then it gets into a really dangerous area. If Vlad was an OF or 3B or something where you can hope for some defensive or baserunning value, then it would have helped his case, but he's basically a player that if he doesn't have a 160 wRC+ every year is likely going to fluctuate from a value standpoint (as he has in his career so far). I hope something gets worked out but I wouldn't necessarily blame the front office if it didn't. The real issue is not having a real plan. He should have been extended or traded. The Astros have had more success than the Jays by a landslide over the last decade and moved Tucker without any hesitation. You have to be decisive, one way or the other.

My guess is that it doesn't happen and Vlad enters the season as an impending FA. Arbitrary deadline aside, is there any real incentive for either side to cave at this point? Vlad can wait a year and test the open market, while the Jays have a lame duck front office that has no reason to care about keeping Vlad beyond 2025. There are also strong baseball reasons to avoid a $500-600M contract for Vlad, assuming that's what he's looking for. Tough spot for the front office, but this is one FO that doesn't seem to care about optics, so I don't think they budge unless it's a level of risk they are comfortable with.

After last winter where Atkins spent real dollars on 0-1 WAR junk, I'd have no issues with someone like Roden making the team out of ST as long as he's earned it as opposed to trying to find a useful vet in the scrap heap portion of free agency.

Yeah 3/90 in present day value makes the deal a lot better for the Red Sox even with the opt outs. Bregman should still be a solid player over the next 3 years so even if he doesn't opt out it's not a major problem at that AAV. Curious to see what the deferrals looked like, if any, on his 6/170 offer. I don't think he's touching $170M over the next 6 years even if he opts out after 2025, or at least it's not a guarantee. If you assume he doesn't opt out at all, then he makes $120M (not factoring deferrals) over 3 years. To get to $170M, he'd need to sign a deal for at least 3/50 at age 34. I mean, maybe that's possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. The decision to go with a higher AAV/lower years deal looked like a smart one, but less so with the deferrals factored in. He must have really wanted to go to the Red Sox.

As a 2B, assuming he’s average or better there, I think Wagner is fine. It’s the fact that he’s assumed to be the DH with a near 120 wRC+ projection that seems way too optimistic for me. Hopefully I’m wrong on that. Davidi mentioned that he’ll get looks at 3B this spring. Wagner looking like even an average defensive 3B would be a great outcome for the Jays as that would make the roster construction a lot better (Wagner/Clement platoon at 3B), but I have my doubts that he will look average there. Maybe the Jays view him as a more of a bat first utility player anyway, and will use him as such.

Yeah with that AAV (depending on deferrals) I don’t think it’s a lock that Bregman opts out. He just had a 4 WAR season and teams were reluctant to give him big years. Not sure what changes a year from now when he’s 32. A $40M 2B showing signs of offensive decline already doesn’t seem like the best investment but maybe the Sox get lucky. I’m just glad it’s over and we can move on with the off season now without the Alonso/Bregman nonsense. Hopefully there’s a shrewd trade out there.

Am I the only one who thinks the Wagner 2025 projections are very optimistic? If he's a 2B then fine, but at DH, I'm not sure that's the way to go. Of course if they stick with internal options then they don't have many other options. Just take whoever rakes in ST between Wagner, Martinez, Barger, Roden, etc.

Curious to see what the years are if the Jays and Vlad do agree on a deal. A 10 year extension would take him through age 36. An 11 year extension takes him through age 37. You're still likely to see some dead money in that scenario, but no where near the "AJ Preller on a coke binge" type of contracts that the Padres were handing out a couple of years ago. I think the ideal scenario might be a big extension with an opt out after year 4 or 5 so Vlad can hit the market again at age 30 or 31. At that point you hope he opts out so you get the best remaining years of his career without the back end.

Yeah the Jays financial picture is pretty solid, especially for a luxury tax paying team. If Berrios opts out (spoiler: he won't) then it's even better. Either way, the front office hasn't gone bonkers trying to field a contender even when their jobs are (presumably) on the line so it's a team that should have an easier time pivoting if 2025 were to go south.

Ke'Bryan Hayes must be really injured because that's a Ross Atkins trade if I've ever seen one.

Between the lack of impact talent available in the FA market aside from a bad-contract-waiting-to-happen in Bregman, and the fact that the Jays do have a little bit of MiLB depth that they can move from (Buffalo infielders), this is probably the best way to go. I can't imagine it will be Luis Robert unless the team is willing to gut the top end of their already mid farm system, but I'm sure there are options out there where it wouldn't take much and the player coming back has some upside/impact potential.

Robert is 27 with 3 more years of reasonable control. Only issue is the floor is low with the high ceiling, so you don’t really know what you’re going to get. I’d have no issues moving Tiedemann for him. Of course it’s unclear what the White Sox would actually ask for. As mentioned, only prospect I’d miss if traded is Nimmala. Everyone else is fair game.

I still think the trade route is the way to go. Bregman has more suitors than Alonso so unless the Jays offer is significantly better than everyone else, it’s likely a long shot. Luis Robert, Luis Arraez, Adolis Garcia, Jesus Sanchez….someone should be available and reasonably priced to acquire.

Curious if there is a trade out there for a hitter. The RP market still has useful arms so that’s a more likely way to add impact to this roster. Bregman obviously is a great fit for what the Jays need but 6 years for a 31 year old is a long damn time.

The home runs would have been nice but realistically it wasn’t a great fit, especially if Vlad had to play a lot of 3B. That’s a great price for the Mets, though.

That's a great tweet by Hector. "The wait will soon be over" works whether Vlad signs or doesn't. Either Vlad signs and that tweet was breaking some insider knowledge, or Vlad doesn't sign and Hector was just saying that we will know soon enough because Vlad's deadline is coming up. He can't be wrong either way. When it comes to engagement farming, that was well done.

Yeah I don't get the complaining about the high payroll. Who cares if the Jays have a $290M payroll as long as they make the playoffs even as a WC team? The 2014 team was in a WC spot at the trade deadline and sat on their hands because Rogers didn't want to increase payroll even slightly. Those days weren't fun. Rogers realizes that spending excessively is the only way to contend in 2025. They had too many holes to fill and not enough internal help. The fact that they are doing it is a great thing, for short term and the future. Maybe it works and we see post season play in 2025. If it doesn't then they'll trade a bunch of guys in July to get below the thresholds.

It would have to be an opt out after year 1 given his age, but realistically would he opt out of a guaranteed 5 more years at age 32 even if he had another 4+ WAR season? I feel like the opt out is pointless in this case, unless he has an MVP season in 2025 or something. Teams are reluctant to sign him due to age + term, not money or the QO. The former is going to be even worse when he's a year older in 2026. I mean, if it's a 6 year deal, Bregman has a 5 WAR season and then opts out, then that would be perfect for the Jays, but that also seems pretty unlikely. If the Jays actually do have a 6 year offer for him, then they are obviously fine taking that risk. He's a well above average bat who rarely strikes out and plays great defense at a position the Jays don't have a long term solution at anywhere in the org. I could see the logic. Just have to be prepared for Springer 2.0.

The Jays saw diminishing returns on Springer’s contract by year 3 of 6, and he wasn’t showing any sign of decline when signed. Bregman for the same term sounds like a really bad idea. I guess it’s good for 2025, which might be the intention especially if they can’t sign Vlad, but it’s likely going to age poorly. Kinda hoping for Alonso for that reason, best case he opts out after 2025, worst case it’s a Bellinger situation with the Cubs.

If it takes a $300M payroll to make the playoffs and hopefully win a few playoff games in the process, then so be it. No shame in being the AL version of the 2022-24 Phillies, as long as it works. As of now this is still an easy roster to pivot off of in July if things go south (Vlad, Bo, Bassitt, Max, Green all FA’s and tradable). That still applies even if they extend Vlad. However I think one more add to the lineup puts the Jays in a good position to contend for a WC spot at the minimum, so hopefully they aren’t done.

Shi Davidi initially wrote in an article that Straw's money didn't count against the CBT, but apparently edited the article later to include this: "This is a corrected version of the original story, which erroneously stated that Myles Straw’s salary doesn’t count against the CBT. Straw’s salary does, in fact, count against the CBT." Davidi has been taking L's all winter, so add another one. I was hoping he was right but unfortunately not. Probably increases the chances of Straw being put on the 40 man at some point.

Awesome. If Max can give the Jays 100-130 innings then I think he's worth this deal easily. Hopefully he has one more good season in him.