glory

There's going to have to be a late Spring Training trade at some point, right? The Buffalo lineup right now will likely have Martinez, Jimenez, Kasevich, Barger, Clase, three of Loperfido/Lukes/Straw/Berroa, possibly Roden if he doesn't make the team, and I'm probably missing a name or two. Turning Barger (for example) into a young backup catcher with team control would make a lot of sense. Either way seems like they will have to do something there.

I know two Arjun's IRL, and it's either "AR-JUNE" (most common way to pronounce it based on my experience, possibly the westernized version of it) or exactly how it's spelled "AR-JUN". Pretty sure you can't go wrong with one of those two. It will take some getting used to as I'm guessing the majority of baseball announcers have never seen the name before in their lives, certainly not on the baseball field.

Did the Pirates announcer think Nimmala was Latino? Manfred calling him “Ar-JOHN” on draft day was also incorrect but less egregious than thinking the “j” was silent.

Yeah AA does not pay market value with extensions. He tries to get the team friendliest deals he can get, and to his credit he gets a bunch of them done, but Vlad has wanted $300M+ at least since 2021 when Tatis signed his deal. There was never going to be a team friendly discount even if AA was the GM.

If you look at the types of players Atkins was going after pre-2023 and the ones he's been after since, it's night and day. Something changed within the organization in 2023, and not just at the big league level either. Maybe it was always there and just became more noticeable in 2023, I'm not sure, but Atkins went from coveting the Teo's and Grichuk's of the world to wanting handcuffs placed on any hitter with a K% above 20. At least he seems to make exceptions based on defensive value (Varsho).

Bloss seems like a pretty ordinary prospect. As long as he’s serviceable #5 quality depth then it’s fine, but I wouldn’t expect anything much more than that.

If Vlad playing 3B is the alternative then you might as well just stick Martinez there. If Orelvis' bat looks legitimately good then you could live with him at 1B/DH. I think that would require him to reach another gear offensively though. He's still young enough to get there, and his power is legit. Let's hope he breaks out this season because he does one thing the Jays absolutely need more of (power) and it's about time they develop another international player.

Orelvis has a lot more upside if he's at 2B/3B, not so much as a 1B, and the fact that they moved him off 3B last season when it's a massive org need probably signifies that he's not playable there (although the Jays standards for defense given how obsessed they are with it might be high). I'm curious to see how the Jays view their infield (2B/SS) for 2026. They have a bunch of bodies in terms of prospects/young players, but no one that really stands out above anyone else. If they view Gimenez as the 2B moving forward, then they should probably look to trade Martinez unless his bat really breaks out and he can be a justifiable 1B/DH option.

February 2025 April 2024

I’m fully on board with Orelvis making the team as the DH if the bat looks like it’s ready. Legit power and should be able to hit LHP, which are/were two big weaknesses on the team. Whether the team would let him DH is the question. Usually having a young prospect in the DH spot isn’t ideal but if he’s the best option for that spot on the team then worry about that later.

Orelvis turning into something would be an amazing development given his strength is something the team sorely needs (HRs/power). Not sure what position he could reasonably play, but at this point just stick him at DH if the bat warrants it.

There's some revenue uncertainty with most MLB teams when it comes to their local media rights, and now MLB announced that they are no longer going to partner with ESPN after 2025, so there's some uncertainty there as well depending on if they can get more money (or equal money) from another media partner(s). Not surprised the market cratered. I think MLB is going to be in much better shape after 2028, as they can negotiate a new media rights package, and Manfred's plan is to bundle the local rights of most of the teams and sell it to a streaming service. That seems like a much better financial scenario for most of the owners. What happens between 2025 and then is the question. Seems like a financial holding pattern for most of the owners.

Vlad in a free agent year is probably worth holding onto at this point if the goal is to contend in 2025 (which it obviously is). It's the one time you can probably guarantee that he'll be motivated, and I don't think you can have that same confidence once he gets his big contract. He's someone I can absolutely see coasting for years once he has a $500M guarantee. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish by liking posts like that, assuming that was actually him and not a photoshop (never know nowadays), but I think it leads back to the motivation aspect. This guy is obviously waiting to test the open market, and the Jays will likely benefit in 2025 if he has something to play for. Just have to swallow all that nonsense like that tweet for the next 9 months, because I'm sure there will be a lot of those.

Shapiro’s lack of extension is an interesting wrinkle in all of this but I don’t think it impacts Vlad necessarily. I get the sense that Shapiro doesn’t care for Vlad and possibly hasn’t for years. Vlad is very much a “coasting on my natural ability” type of player which I don’t think Shapiro wants/likes. Whether Shapiro has one foot out the door or whether he’s been quietly extended in the background, I don’t think he has the appetite to give Vlad anything beyond what they feel he’s actually worth. Which wouldn’t even be a bad thing if the team actually knew how to develop young talent. The 2026 roster with or without Vlad seems like a long shot to contend unless they get some significant internal development this season. Even if Shapiro sticks around and tries to contend again, it’s going to be an uphill battle. They really need 2 young position players and at least one SP to emerge from the system this season. Like if Orelvis and Roden (for example) look like 2-3 WAR or better type of players heading into 2026, then you can at least dream on internal development compensating for some of what they’d be losing, making it easier to reallocate money to fix other areas. The development of the farm is a very underrated storyline this season. They need to develop that next wave overnight basically.

Yeah sounds believable to me too, and it's oddly specific on Ortiz's part. For CBT purposes, any extension would likely start in 2026, so if his ask really was 13/585, then it would have been on top of the 1/28 he's owed in 2025, so it would have cleared $600M in total. Who knows what is true or not, but if that number is anywhere close to what Vlad wants, then letting him test free agency is the best alternative aside from trading him (which it's probably too late for at this point). If any team is willing to meet that number, then tip your hat to Vlad and wish him the best. I don't think that's going to happen in reality.

The most reliable dude on X, Hector Gomez, has a tweet up quoting David Ortiz that says: "He deserves a 13-year, $585 million contract. Vladdy Jr. is an elite offensive player, he's young and with Gold Glove-caliber defense". Ignoring the defense part, did Ortiz pull that number out of his ass or is that what Vlad was actually asking for? If it's the latter then the Jays may not have been within $150M of that, justifiably so.

That was a Vlad quote from August 2024. I don't think his opinion of himself was any different after 2022 or even 2023. You don't get that cocky overnight. The chances of an extension looking at it in hindsight were probably next to zero. The Jays weren't going to sign a non team friendly contract early (Vlad was never going to take a team friendly one either), and after 2022-23, the two sides likely weren't on the same planet as far as perceived value. The people saying they should have locked him up when his value was lower don't realize that there probably wasn't a single moment that Vlad thought he wasn't a lot better than he actually was. We were likely destined to get to this exact spot regardless.

Yeah the window to trade Vlad before the season is probably closed right now. Teams that needed 1B have already filled their spots, and the Jays are now at a position of weakness in trade talks with this being so public, so it probably doesn't even make sense to trade him now. Just keep him and Bo, hope both of them ball out, and then hope it leads to a playoff berth. That's really all they can do at this point.

It may not. It's very possible Vlad hits free agency and realizes he's not getting the money he thinks he's worth, but the Jays are going to be up against big market teams with more favorable short and long term contention windows. It won't be the Jays vs the Giants. If the Jays didn't think Vlad was worth overpaying now, then what is going to compel them to outbid the Mets, Red Sox, etc, a year from now? Shapiro in his presser said Ed was involved in the negotiations. If that's true then it's possible Rogers isn't willing to go super high here either. Ultimately, I don't think the Jays are wrong in not wanting to give Vlad a monster extension. They might end up looking very right. I just don't see them winning or even having the appetite to win a bidding war 9 months from now. Judge was always more likely to stay with the Yankees.

Judge turned down more money from the Giants to stay in NY, and the big market teams (NYM, LAD, BOS, PHI, etc) weren't really in on him. Vlad is going to have at least the Red Sox, Mets, and Yankees (if he's willing to play there) after him. Schwarber is a FA after 2025 so the Phillies might have interest. The markets seem very different. The moment he hits free agency, he's gone.

Vlad has every incentive in the world to be motivated this season. He's going to be the top FA in the class, and he knows another non-elite season is going to hurt his value significantly. Obviously we've been down this road before (JD in 2018) and didn't get the desired result, but Vlad at 26 and Bo at 27 playing for their first big contracts means you're probably getting max effort out of both. In Vlad's case, max effort still means he's going to suck defensively and on the bases. That's just the type of player he is.

That's my stance as well. I think the FO is completely reasonable in not wanting to meet Vlad's demands, which I'm guessing were super high after the Soto contract. Vlad has no defensive value or value on the bases, he's had 2 great seasons in 6 years (mixed with some very mediocre ones), and there have been issues with his conditioning since he was 20. Not wanting to give that type of player $500M plus over a decade plus doesn't seem like an unreasonable stance. The issue is the lack of decisiveness. They literally operated this exact same way in 2017, saw it fail miserably from a trade return standpoint, and are making the exact same mistake. The Astros had a much more compelling case to keep Tucker for one more year given their recent success and place on the win curve, but they made a decisive decision. The Jays have more reason to trade Vlad in a Tucker style trade, but instead are operating as if they (and not Houston) are coming off 8 straight playoff appearances and 2 WS titles in that span. The Jays are literally coming off a last place finish with a bottom 10 farm system. If they knew they couldn't extend Vlad, then he should have been traded months ago.

This is why keeping a lame duck front office was a bad idea. They have zero reason to care about anything other than 2025, so trading Vlad and hurting the 2025 team (even if it helps the 2026-beyond teams) wouldn’t be in their best interest. The only other option then would be an extension but they are extremely committed to their own internal valuations/plan, and Vlad has no reason to compromise when every big market team will be after him this winter, so there was very little chance this was ever going to lead to an extension. It’s strange that if both Vlad and Bo are still on the team by the end of 2025, then I actually think Bo is more likely to come back. I don’t see a clear market for him as a shortstop.

That's why I don't see this coming together. It's numbers vs emotion, and say whatever you want about Shatkins, but they don't operate on emotion. They will stick to their perceived valuation or plan almost every single time. This is a deal that Ed will have to come in and override the front office, or Vlad will have to bring his asking price down (which he has no reason to). I think there is logic behind a mild overpay, let's say $450M or something like that, even acknowledging that it won't age well, but if it's $500M or more, then it gets into a really dangerous area. If Vlad was an OF or 3B or something where you can hope for some defensive or baserunning value, then it would have helped his case, but he's basically a player that if he doesn't have a 160 wRC+ every year is likely going to fluctuate from a value standpoint (as he has in his career so far). I hope something gets worked out but I wouldn't necessarily blame the front office if it didn't. The real issue is not having a real plan. He should have been extended or traded. The Astros have had more success than the Jays by a landslide over the last decade and moved Tucker without any hesitation. You have to be decisive, one way or the other.

My guess is that it doesn't happen and Vlad enters the season as an impending FA. Arbitrary deadline aside, is there any real incentive for either side to cave at this point? Vlad can wait a year and test the open market, while the Jays have a lame duck front office that has no reason to care about keeping Vlad beyond 2025. There are also strong baseball reasons to avoid a $500-600M contract for Vlad, assuming that's what he's looking for. Tough spot for the front office, but this is one FO that doesn't seem to care about optics, so I don't think they budge unless it's a level of risk they are comfortable with.