glory

Kirk’s value comes mostly from defense. The Jays have to accept that at this point. He’s not going to hit like he did in 2022 again. Just bat him lower in the lineup and hope he’s around league average offensively.

Why is Kirk always up with the bases loaded?

2025 FA's: $66.5M (Bo, Bassitt, Scherzer, Green, Swanson) 2026 FA's: ~$70M (Varsho, Springer, Straw, Gausman, Garcia) How they reallocate this over the next couple of years combined with player development is going to determine their short term fate. Berrios opting out would be generous on his part as well, but I doubt it. If by some miracle that happens, then that frees up another $25M after 2026 (and another $25M in 2027). I don't know if Atkins is the guy to get the team there, but they basically need AJ Preller/Dave Dombrowski level of GM'ing over the next few years. Just aim as high as humanly possible in free agency and trade. They don't have the farm system to go full Preller, but at this point trade anyone other than Nimmala and get the best talent you can get.

Yeah the Phillies are probably the best case scenario for what the Jays are currently trying to build. Spend big in free agency, make trades for controllable impact talent, and then go from there. Even if the team falls out of it this season and has to sell at the deadline, they could try to sneak under the luxury tax and clear room for more spending in the winter. That's really the only option they have. As you said too much $ allocated to ~2 WAR talent right now (Springer, Berrios, Bassitt, etc). So far they've at least extended or acquired the contracts of players with 4+ WAR ceilings (Vlad, Kirk, Gimenez), but they are seeing the back end of the last round of FA spending so a lot of declining years all at once (Springer, Gausman, Berrios). The next round of FA spending has to be for elite level talent with longer shelf lives and the 2 WAR players should be the ones making $750k. Easier said than done. One thing is for sure, with all the money coming off the books, and Vlad's CBT hit only being about $6M more in 2026-beyond, they absolutely need to sign one of the FA starters available (Gallen, Cease, King, Valdez). Not much on the hitting side other than a pipe dream (Tucker) and re-signing Bo, so they probably have to be creative there.

I know it’s way too early for this but what’s the path for a contending team in 2026-2030? The only way to make this contract sensible is to have an incredible 5-6 year run where Vlad’s best remaining seasons are maximized to the fullest. I just don’t see a path there unless the Jays start developing talent out their asses starting right now but they’ll have a lot of money freed up after 2025 and 2026. If big name hunting is easier with an extended Vlad in the fold then that certainly helps, though I have no idea if that will make a significant difference.

Pros: he’s young enough to accumulate counting stats that might make him a Hall of Famer if he stays healthy, so a forever Blue Jay making it someday would be pretty cool. Cons: everything else. Horrible contract that will age really badly unless Vlad has a David Ortiz career arc (he won’t).

I can't wait for negative WAR Vlad getting 600 plate appearances a season for 8 years from ages 33-40 as he tries to accumulate enough counting stats for the HOF. At least the best remaining years of Vlad's career will be spent on the 2026-30 Jays, who if we're lucky will only be rebuilding for most of the years instead of all of them. Fun times ahead.

The best thing that could happen at this point is not signing him, then if/when the team doesn’t resemble a contender in July, the optics of trading Vlad will be fine. Just give it time. The Jays caving now and giving him 14 f’n years will be a disaster, and the frustrating part is Shapiro knows this but it’s probably out of his hands. That’s not to absolve him of blame, because if he was better at player development, then we wouldn’t be in this position.

It's the 2023 team except with a worse bullpen and worse (older) rotation. With Schneider on the last year of his contract, I think there's a real chance for a mid season firing here but not sure that's going to make a significant difference. They'll need the offense to compensate for a lot of their weaknesses this season, and not sure they have enough power for that.

I wish the season ended after the 7th game of the season. Happier times back then. I didn't watch the game, but Garcia and Hoffman combining for 11 pitches while Little and Sandlin face multiple batters and blow the game is vintage John Schneider.

Man please don't extend Vlad when the team could realistically be selling at the deadline. Absolutely insane if that reported contract happens.

X translation: "I've received information through various channels that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays have agreed to a $500 million, 14-year deal. It seems an official announcement will be made any moment now. Congratulations to Vladi." Man, it's really happening, isn't it?

Yeah if this happens then it's all Rogers. No chance Shatkins values Vlad as a $500M player when he can't field the lowest position on the defensive totem pole on top of being the worst baserunner in the league at age 25 and only having 2 great offensive seasons in 6 years. This contract will age like milk left outside on a hot day. One thing Shapiro said weeks ago during his post-Vlad deadline press conference was that ownership was involved in this deal, and he mentioned Ed and Staffieri by name. This goes beyond Shapiro, which is unfortunate because he could have been the logic in the room, but if this is actually happening, then logic was clearly pushed aside.

I think a bigger issue here is the lack of power in the lineup. Obviously guys like Tony and Vlad will eventually start hitting some out, but there isn't much else beyond those two that you feel comfortable with from a power standpoint, and consistently needing 3-4 hits just to score is not sustainable. How they fix that is a big question. Varsho coming back will help.

I get why they want Kirk hitting behind Gimenez, but while Springer is on a hot streak they may want to adjust.

Game starting at the scheduled time. If this was Toronto's home opener, they wouldn't have even began the pre game festivities yet.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/big-and-sexy-an-inside-look-at-swing-changes-of-blue-jays-andres-gimenez/

I think the ideal spot for Wagner is a bat first utility player, but on this team when Varsho gets back, he needs to start at 3B vs RHP. I think the projections are way too kind to him, but if he's playing 3B at even an average level, then that would be a great scenario for the Jays. Much better than sticking him at DH and hoping he hits enough.

Honestly I don't even think it's Shatkins at this point. A FO as obsessed with their own valuations as they are going that high for Vlad is not like them at all. I'm guessing it's probably an ownership call now, and thankfully Vlad's ego is so big he turned down a deal that would have been a disaster for the Jays.

Ross Atkins watching the first 7 games of the season

Yeah Clement is an idiot for running through the stop sign. Bo was up, I could understand if Straw was due up, but that was a stupid call by Clement.

With that said, I thought i saw Clement run through the stop sign. Not sure if a replay was done to show whether he did or didn't.

I don't get the point of replays if the only way to overturn it is if the umpire made the worst mistake of his life, rather than just an obvious missed call. Clement was safe. Just barely, but he was. Overturn it and make sure the right call is made. Just a stupid system.

The Jays winning today would be the most baseball thing ever considering the pitching matchup and the lineup, which includes the Murderers Row bottom 4 of Clement, Schneider, Heineman, and Straw.

Don Mattingly wiping tears of joy from his face as he sees the Jays score 5 runs on like 25 singles.