glory

Kirk made a lot of hard contact tonight. Good to see.

October 8, 2022: Blue Jays lose in embarrassing fashion to the Mariners in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round. Less than two weeks later: In hindsight, we should have known right there that this organization wasn't serious.

Trade deadline: Bo, Bassitt, Green, Scherzer (if healthy) Should be shopped but won't be due to wanting to contend in 2026: Varsho, Gausman, Hoffman, Garcia Intriguing trade option if performance continues: Springer (salary will likely have to be eaten though). Unmovable due to contract: Vlad, Berrios, Gimenez, Santander, Kirk I don't think anyone above is getting a difference making return back except maybe Hoffman/Garcia given how valuable relievers are at the deadline. It's going to be a long road to get impact young talent back onto this team.

Depressing but spot on. Coming into this past off season you could have commended Shatkins for having such a clear long-term payroll situation where it would have been easy to pivot for the next front office, but then Atkins decided to help his future employer by taking $96M off their hands (and another $11M for a 5th OF), sign a one trick pony DH to a five year deal, and extend a catcher who had a 94 wRC+ and .098 ISO in his last 1015 plate appearances coming into the season and might be one of the most out of shape athletes in the league. That's not to suggest that those contracts won't provide on-field value, they could/might, but none of them are tradable and when you're paying full freight for players rather than getting some sort of team benefit out of it, then it's not advantageous at all. The next GM, whoever it is, will be mandated to compete in 2026, and I honestly don't know how that 1) has a chance of working out, and 2) makes the job desirable for a good candidate. For all we know Shapiro may have already been extended, but if the job is available, then I can't see it being one that a candidate with options is going to jump at. My guess is if the job is available then they'll give it to someone like Zaidi and try to have a quick turnaround rather than someone who sees logic in where the team is on the competitive cycle.

His team options after this season are for $20M annually so he’s no longer cheap either. Wouldn’t mind trading for him regardless if the cost is minimal (that’s all the Jays can offer anyway) since they won’t be rebuilding any time soon so might as well trade for someone with a high ceiling and hope it works, but he doesn’t present the surplus value potential that he used to. The bigger question I have is who is going to handle the trade deadline if/when the team is selling again? A top 5 payroll in MLB while possibly heading towards a 2nd straight last place finish and having one of the worst farm systems in the league doesn’t seem like a situation that warrants a front office extension. Shatkins shouldn’t be within 10 feet of the trade deadline if the team is selling again.

The Jays are now tied for the 2nd worst run differential in the AL and tied for 4th worst in all of baseball. Only the Orioles (lol), Rockies, and Marlins are worse. The sad thing is there’s not much the Jays can actually do. The minor league system is ass and the only injured player they are waiting on is a 40 year old Scherzer who might be washed anyway. On top of that they owe Vlad, Gimenez, Taters, Berrios, and Kirk about $430M from 2026-30 (never mind what they owe Vlad alone for the 9 years after that) so they aren’t going to rebuild. The path to fixing this isn’t very clear right now.

If finishing last again means Shatkins is gone, then I think I’ll take it at this point. This team stinks.

One thing Ross Atkins loves more than opposite field singles is players with options, no matter how marginal they are. I know the AAA depth aren't exactly high valued trade pieces but I can't believe some were not consolidated for more help even if it was for a middle reliever or a bench bat.

Yeah Barger has bat speed and exit velocity. I have no issues taking a chance on that and hoping it leads somewhere positive. There's not much power that can be squeezed out of Roden, Wagner, Clement, Gimenez, Kirk, etc, but I think that potential is there for Barger. Whether he's good enough to take that next step is the question. The other names you mentioned, not so much, certainly not Orelvis anymore since he's trying to hit singles the other way to suck up to the Jays brass.

“I honestly think that this team has forgotten how to pull baseballs. That’s why our home runs are down. You get into batting practice and you’re hitting balls to right-centre, left-centre, instead of working on the proper way of pulling baseballs, and elevating baseballs.” - Matt Stairs, 2008 Just for fun, the Jays 2008 BA farm system ranking: 25th Man, if the 2025 Jays had a few more white dudes and fewer Latinos, then this would be a JP Ricciardi team in every way.

This org is f***ed under this regime. No hitting prospect will ever fully develop at this rate when hitters are being told to not only go against their natural swing tendencies, but also adopt an approach that is less likely to make them effective big leaguers. It's possible Barger, Schneider, and Martinez all suck and wouldn't have developed anyway, but the Jays organization has done them zero favors from a development standpoint. What other org operates like this in 2025? No wonder so many young players who helped this team in 2020-22 suddenly lost their ability to hit for power. It couldn't have been Donnie (even though I like making fun of him) because this has infiltrated the minors too. Maybe James Click? Something changed in 2023, and man it has destroyed this team's short and long term prospects. It's up to Rogers now to make a change.

Nimmala is so screwed the longer Shatkins is here.

I didn't watch either of the games, but read that Gausman threw 50+ pitches in an inning. I understand they needed to eat up innings but that's a bit unreasonable.

Since returning from the IL in August 2023, he has a 0.9 WAR and 81 wRC+ in 587 PA with a .103 ISO (7 HR). Keep Ed Rogers away from the negotiating table on this one.

The entire dugout was probably sneezing when all the dust from the home run jacket flew everywhere. That hasn't seen the light of day in a long time.

I thought for sure the Jays would be at least top 3 in singles, but they are tied for 8th. The one/only thing they are good at and they aren't even top 5. Sad times. Maybe they can climb back into the top 5 in singles after tonight. Carrasco is good hitting, so it will be singles galore most likely.

Carrasco: 5 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 0 HR

Yeah I see zero reason to commit to Bo long-term. His offensive profile is not likely to age well, and he doesn't move the needle marketing-wise as much as Rogers seems to think Vlad does. I don't think this team is going to rebuild regardless of who is the one making the decisions (Shatkins or someone else) but either way there is likely a better path to roster construction than doubling down on a Vlad/Bo combo for $700-800M. The Gimenez contract is not ideal, but IMO it would make it a bit less egregious if he's a SS, so just move him over and find a 2B somewhere else.

I thought I read last year that Vlad prefers batting 3rd. Don't know if that was an actual quote or not, but if that's true, then yeah just put him 3rd in the lineup. Now that Springer is hitting again, do something like Springer-Bo-Vlad-Tony. Won't magically solve anything, but why not?

I'm still curious how any human being or computer system thought Will Wagner was going to have a ~120 wRC+ in 2025. The knock on Wagner when acquired was that he doesn't hit the ball with any real damage and hits a lot of ground balls. He just has great bat to ball skills, which obviously makes Ross Atkins have to cross his legs to avoid his excitement showing, but I don't see how that translates to a well above average offensive player. Maybe I'm wrong and he turns into Arraez or something, but the fact that the FO throws his name around like a top prospect is sad. He'd be a nice option at 3B only because the Jays literally have no one else, so a ~100 wRC+ slap hitting 3B is probably an upgrade on this team, but he has a ways to go to be league average with the bat at this point. Looking at the system (AA and AAA) is kinda depressing. Only player who looks like they could help is Clase, but he's not hitting the ball hard at all so probably facing a similar reality check once he sees MLB pitching consistently.

This is year 3 now of the limp dick offense that needs pitching and defense to be perfect in order to win. It's not fun to watch even when it works (2023) and unwatchable when it doesn't.

Taking the bat out of Kirk's hands doesn't sound like a bad idea, but Straw is on deck, so pick your poison.

Lukes hitting a home run and then getting benched the next day is hilarious.

2024 vs 2025 comparison after 24 games (league rank in parentheses) 2024: 13-11 (11th), 93 R (22nd) 21 HR (21st), 101 wRC+ (12th), -12 RunDiff 2025: 12-12 (15th), 87 R (24th), 13 HR (29th), 98 wRC+ (18th), -14 RunDiff I mean, it's very early, so the team could easily get hot, especially when the schedule eases up, but this has the look and feel of 2024 to me so far. The 2023 season required god tier pitcher health, in addition to performance, which I don't think we can expect again this year.

Yeah it's possible this contact obsession was always there, we just never noticed it because the team (especially in 2021-22) was actually hitting dingers. Now that the power hitters were phased out and they've tripled down on line drives and contact, it's become a lot more noticeable. Even looking at Grichuk, his ISO dropped every year from 2018-2021, but so did his K%. He was acquired as a 30% K% player, and by the end of his Jays tenure he was down to 20%, but lost a lot of his power as well. I'm sure if I google it there will be "Jays have tinkered with Grichuk's swing" stories from that time period. Teo is really the one true development success story looking back. Teo gone, replaced by KK. Chapman gone, replaced by f'n IKF. Schneider hitting like Babe Ruth for two months but losing playing time to Craig's son. These guys have been hiding in plain sight. What a damn mess.