I don't think it will go up. It may stay around the same general area ($130-135M), but I can't imagine Rogers would increase it after doing nothing at the trade deadline (when the probability of making the playoffs was probably over 50% at that point) and all the circumstances around the season, ownership, dollar, etc. Beeston did say it would go up, and he'd be an idiot if he said something like that so emphatically only to lie about it, but who knows with this group.
I think we will see some moves that give the impression that they are spending money (i.e. signing a closer), but with options being declined and possibly some players being traded (Lind? Happ?) to save some money, I think the payroll will ultimately go back to around the same general area as last season. Which is still big enough of a payroll to win, but whether Alex is the one who can right the ship is the issue.