glory
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Everything posted by glory
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The Jays have gotten this far due to the offense. Any games that were reasonably close, aside from the bullpen game in Game 4 of the DS, were bullpen implosions (ALDS Game 3, ALCS Games 1-2 and 5). So the Jays have to hit the Mariners starters and make the late game stress free for the bullpen. Close games late will heavily favor the Mariners, even if the Jays are leading. Springer being healthy is a necessity.
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I think two things can be right in this case. 1. Little was a bad decision. 2. The Jays could have still lost the game had they gone to Hoffman/Dominguez since neither of those two are great options. The real correct answer was using Fisher who destroys lefties, but for whatever reason they don't trust him in big spots unless they have no other choice. Realistically a 2-1 lead in the 8th was probably not a high probability win for the Jays given the options available. This is where trading some extra prospect capital for Duran probably would have changed the complexion of the game. The Jays don't have a guy like that. They've been fortunate that all of their wins this post season have been either blow outs or decent sized leads. The two games that were tied or 1 run leads were both evaporated in this series (both by Little). The Jays can't win games like that. Not with this pen.
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The Jays forcing a Game 6 is actually a good scenario after being down 0-2 and losing both games at home. It’s just that losing Game 5 the way they did makes being down 3-2 feel worse than it probably should given how the series started. The sad part is the Jays could have still lost Game 5 even if they managed it differently (ex. Hoffman in the 8th). It’s just that they managed it in the worst possible way. The Little decision stunk but it is what it is. Have to move past it and win the next two.
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Witnessing Ohtani and Judge at the same time is something we will talk about decades from now.
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Little Apr-May: 4.4 BB/9, 26.1 IP June-present: 6.9 BB/9, 42 IP Yes, he's hard to make great contact on, but there's no high leverage RP on earth who can survive with that June-onwards walk rate. That's not the RP you use in a one run game against the other team's best hitters. Ironically, he's the one that should have been used in Game 4 when the Jays had a big lead, but was saved specifically for moments like last night. It's not about the options in the pen, it's about the guy who makes the decisions not knowing who his best relievers are. Or at least his inability to remove his own bias from the equation.
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One thing JS is consistent with is using the players he likes even if it doesn't make sense. It's his way of showing faith in them. For example, there is no reason for IKF to start playoff games. I don't care if he hits a 79 mph double in a game that he starts, he's not a big league starter on a semi-serious team, much less one trying to get to the World Series. But that's JS's guy. He'll find a reason to use him. I have no doubt in my mind that if the Jays are up 1 in a Game 7 scenario that JS will go right back to Little.
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"I wanted to give them a different look" while Louis Varland has pitched in every game for the past 2 weeks against every part of NY/SEA's lineups was a remarkably tone deaf quote by JS. Not only for the hypocrisy, but the fact (as others have mentioned) that a "different look" could have been Jeff Hoffman in the 8th inning if he wasn't used the night before in a gd blowout. I really hope the Jays win the next 2. Losing this series and then having to watch this dude's contract extension press conference a few weeks from now will be torture.
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Yeah they don’t seem him as a high leverage option, which is sad. It’s not like the pen is stacked. Fisher has performed well all season and was unfairly demoted. Since they think Louis Varland is a right handed Andrew Miller and they obviously think the 8th inning is a no-no for Fisher, then they could have tried Fisher in the 6th-7th to face the bottom of the order, and then gone with Varland in the 8th to face the top of the order. Not sure I would have trusted Varland in that spot either but more than Little? Without question.
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If JS knew that Braydon Fisher is one of his best relievers (maybe the best given how Hoffman looked this season), then I think the call in the 8th inning would have been more of a slam dunk. Could Fisher have blown the 8th? Maybe, but that's the analytical move to make. LHB have a .232 wOBA against him. That's what the nerds would/should have been saying to go with. But JS views him as a low leverage option unless he has no choice, unfortunately. So you're left with asking "who was the best option" when the only real options available (because of the manager) were Hoffman, Little, and Dominguez.
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Pulling Berrios was likely 100% pre-planned by the front office/nerds. They did the exact same move with Buntoyo in 2020 (Shoemaker/Ray). The others seem more of a JS call to me, but who knows. Bringing in Mayza to face a switch hitter who hits lefties a lot better than righties couldn't have been an analytical move. Same with Little tonight. DS is more of a question mark. If they don't want DS to hit against any pitcher who throws more than 92 mph, then they should probably trade him this winter. I honestly wonder how Gibbons would have managed this series. I doubt he'd be pulling SP's on 70 pitches, but I wonder if he's using Little in that spot twice now (in Game 1 and Game 5, both resulting in the M's taking the lead).
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I think that's the issue, there is no analytic on earth that would support this decision. Little has legitimately been terrible for a while now. You will be hard pressed to find a good big league reliever who walks 7 per 9 (Little's BB/9 since June 1). Many people said in the beginning of the season that once big league hitters figure out that they don't have to swing at his s*** in the dirt, then the fairy dust is going to wear off, and it has. Honestly the one thing JS said that made sense was Little is hard to square up. I would have probably expected 3 straight walks instead of a HR and 2 walks, but either way, it was a stupid decision that has been universally panned (with good reason). I want to believe JS is just a pawn listening to nerds with computers, but even the worst analytical organization wouldn't suggest putting Little in that spot. This seems 100% like a "he's been my guy since April" gut move that you do in July when the games mean less, not in Game 5 of the f'n ALCS.
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I really want to hear the BS spewing from JS to justify this. A manager with this clueless in this big of a spot is insane. This wasn't a regular season game in August. This was Game 5 of the ALCS in a 2-2 series. Horrible loss. If Springer can't play Sunday then it's going to be tough to win.
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Little has come in for 2 games in this series, tied 1-1 and up 2-1, and blown both. But during the two blow out wins, they didn't use him. Little will be used in this exact same scenario in Game 6 and/or 7 if it happens. Nothing is going to change.
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JS went with Hoffman against the top of the order last night. If that's your closer, then that's the spot to use him. Either use Hoffman for 2 innings or plan for the 9th as it happens, but do not use a guy with a 7 BB/9 over the last 4 months of the season.
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That JS contract extension press conference a month from now is going to be a horrible day.
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Just walk Naylor and take Little out. He's shook.
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At least they used Dominguez yesterday in a blowout so they could save Little for this moment.
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Unbelievable.
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Little against 2-3-4. Holy s***.
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Watching the Fox feed. Any updates on George from the SN feed?
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Make sure he's healthy for Sunday.
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I wish bad things for Bryan Woo.
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Varland against a HR hitter. I'm not nervous or anything.
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Get a 1-2-3 inning here so JS doesnt go to the pen with runners on base.
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Not sure they would have gotten Randy on that, but IKF bobbling anything in his direction at 2B seems to be an every game trend in the playoffs.
