glory

Ryan Tepera apparently got a MVP vote. Well deserved.

Gausman has also accepted the QO. Not surprising.

One issue with MLB marketing is that the sport itself is very regional. So Aaron Judge will be a big star in NY, but no where else. That is going to limit his endorsement potential on a national level. When MLB was more of a national sport, it was easier for someone like Griffey to play in Seattle and still be one of the biggest sports stars of the decade. Hell, Nike is still coming out with Griffey shoes in 2021. Now it is going to be harder for any baseball player to have that sort of reach. It doesn't help that MLB was very, very late to the party when it came to social media, so they likely lost a lot of potential fans in the last decade. They are just now being flexible and allowing content creators (Jomboy and others) to promote the sport on YouTube and Twitter without fear of being banned. The entire league needs a makeover in terms of how they promote their stars and the sport itself, and I don't think it's too late to fix it. They just have to take it seriously and not put all the onus on the players to promote themselves.

The QO was perfect for Stroman. It is a big raise from what he got in arb for 2020 (even though he never got to touch most of it due to sitting out), and he didn't even throw a single regular season pitch. Now he gets $18.9 million in 2021 to build up his value for next year on a team that figures to at least be good, if not a playoff team depending on who they add. Someone like Odorizzi last year got screwed by the QO since he was coming off one of his best seasons, but Stroman didn't even pitch. This is one of the rare cases where the QO benefits the player more than anyone else. Even with his massive ego, he had to accept it in this market.

This is why I think the Players Alliance is going to make a significant difference for the sport in the next 5-10 years. You have a group exclusively of current and former big leaguers (Granderson, CC, Maybin, etc) who range from Gen Z to millennial to 40's, that are much more familiar with the plight of black families and how to reach black kids than the corporate types who probably have a great deal of power in MLB sponsored programs. If MLB stays away from the Players Alliance and lets them do their own thing, it has far more potential for real results.

In other news, Stroman has accepted the QO from the Mets.

The RBI program started 30 years ago and the percentage of black MLB players has gone from 17% to 8% during that span. Don't get me wrong, the RBI program is a good thing, and I believe MLB has started to do more recently to increase participation, but there is a reason why former and current black players formed the Players Alliance. More could be done in those communities. Giving underprivileged kids who can't afford to play the sport (a lot of them being black due to obvious factors) an opportunity to not only play it but also develop with proper coaching, will potentially create a pipeline of future baseball players who otherwise would have never even considered the sport due to their financial situation. Worst case, most of those kids decide to do something else, but still get a passion for the sport that they never had before they started playing it. As I said, forget about PR or optics, look at it from a pure business standpoint. Investing more in those areas has far greater marketing upside than practically any other demo they are reaching right now. I don't think there needs to be a quota for the amount of black players in the league. The issue is more so giving kids who can't afford to play the game a chance to play it, and also to increase the black audience watching the sport. You do both of those things to make the sport more popular/money, not to placate anybody or reach a quota. Of course, MLB is really bad at marketing its players of any race, so that brings up another issue that needs to be corrected.

MLB has to do a better job of not only getting more African American athletes, but appealing to African Americans period. It's not about equality or fairness, it's about growing the popularity of the sport. Pop culture and "black culture" are intertwined in 2020. If you lose the black audience, then you'll probably lose young people in general. One part of that is representation. I believe 20 years ago the % of black players was 15%. Another part of that is accessibility. It's more expensive to play baseball than other sports, so you're losing inner city kids who can't afford to play the sport, and/or don't have the fields/training to become better as they get older. There are absolutely benefits for MLB to have more black players and none of those benefits include equality/optics. Get back to 15% and I think there will be a noticeable difference in the perception of the sport. Double down on the inner cities across the country. Invest in it. They will get a return on that investment over time. Another major problem is marketing, and that's unrelated to race since MLB couldn't make Trout or Harper bigger mainstream stars. That's a separate issue.

He was hired because Jerry Reinsdorf felt his biggest regret as an owner was firing TLR 34 years ago. That was legitimately the reason he was hired from what the media is saying.

Yeah I don’t think it’s a race issue exclusively when it comes to TLR. I’d imagine most of the young players on that team are disappointed. This is going to be a trainwreck.

The White Sox going to be unintentional comedy in 2021.

I think the Jays are definitely adding two more SPs. Best case it’s Bauer and then a cheaper option. More likely it will be two mid tier options (ex. Odorizzi/Paxton and Walker). Either way, I can’t see them entering the season counting on 2 of Roark/Stripling/Pearson as guaranteed rotation arms.

It takes two to tango in free agency. If Kluber signs for 1/6 in San Diego (for example), it doesn't mean he would have taken 1/8 from Toronto. The pitchers looking at "pillow contracts" will probably be harder for the Jays to sign (AL East, facing the Yankees/Red Sox/Rays all the time, and now no clue where they'll play home games). Ray just happened to be someone who spent a few months with the Jays coaches and obviously felt comfortable. It's why I suspect they might circle back with Walker at some point if other options fail.

I don't disagree with those who want to aim higher, I am in the same boat, but I don't think they make this move if they felt it took them out of other bigger players. They got Anderson early last season at around the same cost and still spent over $106m total ($35m in 2020 money) on Ryu, Roark, and Yamaguchi after that. This is probably a combination of "a bird in the hand" and possibly buying low on a mid rotation starter who actually wanted to come back. I have no idea if this will make a difference to other FA's, but players know that teams/owners are going to try to screw them more than usual this winter, so the Jays coming in this early in the winter and giving a player a contract that might be considered a bit of an overpay in today's Covid market certainly couldn't hurt in endearing them to other FA's. Doesn't mean they'll sign better players, but maybe gives the signal that they are one of the few teams that won't be as impacted by the Covid revenue losses.

I think 1/8 is a fair deal with upside. He is only 29, velocity went up post trade, and track record of a 2-3 WAR starter in the 5 years prior. Bit surprised he got $8 million though, especially this early in the off season. I guess the teams who have money to spend might view this off season like a normal one rather than waiting until March to sign players. It always takes an overpay to sign free agents, and a pitcher wanting to recoup his value signing a one year deal in the AL East where he doesn't know where he'll be pitching during home games probably warrants one as well. Either way, as long as this doesn't hinder spending on higher end free agents, it's a solid move.

At least the Jays were able to make a deal with Brodie before he lost his job.

If the Indians are such a hot mess financially, then maybe they'd look to move Ramirez, but $9m + 2 cheap team options for a MVP candidate can't be that expensive even by Cleveland standards. Plus once they move Lindor they should be fine from a payroll standpoint. Finding a pre-breakout star like Grisham would be great but harder to do that without a 2020 minor league season to go on. They'd have to really guess right. I'm sure the Jays can (and will) make some trades, but for a star at a position like CF or SS/3B seems really unlikely. I recall reading they were very close to trading for Joe Musgrove at the deadline but it fell apart at the last minute. I could see trades like that happening. Solid/mid-tier players with 2 years of control for prospect depth. A trade for a legit star with years of control left seems much harder. That's why I don't mind the free agent option, even if it means a slight overpay. Of course if they sign Bauer instead, then they can be a little more creative in finding the position players.

Which star CF/SS/3B with 2-3 years of control left figures to be available in a trade, though? Those types are usually not traded, and I don't really see a player that stands out as a realistic trade candidate. Acquiring someone like that would be great, and maybe the Covid related financial losses will make teams do stupid things, but that seems on the highly unlikely side unless I'm missing an obvious trade target. Would the A's be so cheap (and disgusting as an organization) to trade Matt Chapman? Ketel Marte has 2+2 left on his contract, not sure if the D-Backs would move him. I think it's far more likely to get an upgrade in free agency in one of those spots, and it won't cost you top prospects. Agreed on Bauer. Catering to his demands (pitching every 4 days) would actually help the Jays since Ryu needs more rest during the season, and we don't know how many innings Pearson can handle next year. Giving Bauer 40+ starts, if that's something that he wants, should be pretty easy as long as he stays healthy. If you told me the Jays sign Bauer and then do nothing else of real significance, then I'd be fine with that since 2-3 WAR players will be fighting for contracts this winter, so signing the best FA available and then cheaping out the rest of the way is probably a high win proposition in this market.

You're right that serious contention will depend on internal players taking the next step (Vlad, Bo, Biggio, Pearson, etc), but I think you can both wait for that development and improve the roster at the same time. The Ryu signing is an example of that. There's still 3 years left on that deal so it could easily turn sideways in the future, but it was a reasonable gamble to take on a player with front end ability. The Jays should be focusing on moves like that. I don't think any FA, even the top ones, are getting more than 5 year deals, either due to age or possibly by choice (Bauer). That fits right into the team's timeline with the current core group. I think this free agency + market is something the Jays need to take advantage of, assuming Rogers is willing to spend. Don't do the free agent equivalent of 2013 AA or anything crazy like that, but aim high, and see what happens from there. The bargains are going to be there either way due to league finances.

Slim, gun toting Vlad about to shock the world next season.

Turning Roark into Seager would be a good move, but not sure the Mariners would do it. While Seager's $15m in 2022 would become a player option with a trade, it's a team option as long as the Mariners keep him, so a Roark/Seager swap would save the M's about $6m in 2021 and that's about it. The Jays would likely have to throw something in. If the Jays took Seager's salary outright, then it shouldn't cost much, but if they are willing to go $18m on a player, then might as well try for DJ first who is better offensively and more versatile defensively.

Bauer trolling every fanbase but he’s a breath of fresh air for baseball. The off season is boring more often than not. At least Trev is engaging with fans and giving some anticipation/excitement for where he goes. More players should do this.

Out of all the QO players, DJ is probably the most realistic one assuming all it will take is an overpay to get him and he doesn't have a strict preference on location. Bauer will have a huge market, as will Springer, and Realmuto doesn't make sense as a target since Jansen might have some upside left and if not, Kirk is right behind him. Stroman is out for obvious reasons, and Gausman probably accepts it. If there is any year for the Jays not to put much weight on the QO, it is this one.

DJ would be my first choice as an acquisition. Hard contact, doesn’t strike out, draws walks, can play anywhere. Only downside is age (on a long term deal) but skill set is perfect for this team on just about every level. I don’t think he leaves the Yankees, and I think he ends up getting a bigger deal than MLBTR is predicting, but who knows what the market will look like.