glory
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Everything posted by glory
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Look at the FA market. There's not much there, and Tanaka is only 2 years older than Bauer. Some others are interesting but coming off significant injury/down years. Even the best SP trade targets appear to be 34 year old Darvish (coming off a career year) and 33 year old Lynn. Assuming Tanaka stays healthy, and that's always going to be an "if" even though he's avoided it so far, then he's a reasonable target, if not unspectacular. He wouldn't be my first choice in a normal situation, mainly because of his elbow, but the market isn't exactly littered with better options.
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Looking at the FA starters, I'm actually warming up to the idea of Tanaka. His elbow still scares me, but 1) success in the AL East over many years, 2) no drop in velocity, and 3) shouldn't be more than a 3 year deal at a 2-3 WAR type of AAV (~$15M). Whether he'd want to sign in Toronto/Buffalo/Dunedin is another story.
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General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread
glory replied to Bobthe4th's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
AA walking away from the Jays was probably the smartest thing he ever did. He knew he had one foot out the door in 2015, so he went all in, and then left on the highest of high notes after ending a 20 year drought knowing that he didn't have to deal with the consequences afterwards. Then he takes over a job in Atlanta where someone else did all the grunt work and he just has to sign one or two free agents on one year deals every year because the rest of the roster/farm is set for him for the foreseeable future. If he stayed in Toronto and had to suffer the stench of 2017-19, then his stock drops. Boss move(s). I think AA leaving and Atkins taking over worked out desirably for everyone involved. Atkins, while I have been critical of some of his moves in isolation, has overall done a very fine job in rebuilding the farm system and putting the team in position to be a long term contender very soon. I don't think AA coming off 2015 would have been as patient had he stayed. -
They'll have a max slot available next off season, plus all their draft picks. Even if Giannis signs elsewhere, they'll have options. If they strike out on everyone, then I don't see them tanking either way unless Masai leaves.
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I actually like that Masai is preserving cap space for next summer rather than trying to foolishly improve this season's team at the expense of future cap space. Let's face it, other than a trade for Harden, which isn't happening, the Raptors don't have the upper end talent to compete for a championship. The only way to win in the NBA is to have a top 5 player on your roster. If Giannis has even a 5-10% chance of happening, then you have to take that chance unless another star falls on your lap before then. The only way to attract a star in free agency is to have a great team already so that the star feels he can be the missing piece. If the Raptors win 50 games again, even if they lose in the 2nd round, it would still be a desirable outcome for Giannis. More desirable than going to Miami instead? Probably not, but hey, gotta at least try.
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Jays have 5 catchers on the 40 man roster now. There's still some replaceable parts that they can remove when they need a spot opened up (Shaw, Wags, Fisher), but there will definitely be a trade or two involving the catching depth.
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Jays almost had a deal for Joe Musgrove at the deadline but it fell apart at the last minute so they went with Ray and Stripling instead. Wouldn't mind the Jays and Cherington revisiting that this winter, though it will cost real prospects.
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Cohen dumping on Morosi for blatantly making up news/rumors for clicks (which he has done forever) is amazing.
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If the Jays can't sign LeMathieu, then I think I'd rather have Bryant (assuming he comes as cheap as people seem to think) than any of the alternatives. I'd rather not move Bichette off short unless it was for a superstar (Lindor), so I don't particularly care for the SS market this winter (Semien, Didi, Simmons, etc). Moving Biggio to 3B and getting a 2B probably doesn't improve the IF defense as a whole all that much. Bryant in a lot of the ways is the perfect answer. It's not like plugging Shaw in there for a year. Bryant could put up a 4-5 WAR and it wouldn't be all that surprising. He can play 3B for a year, with real superstar upside if he bounces back, and the team can give him the QO and reassess 3B after the season. Really just depends on what it would take to get him.
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Hiraldo being two years away from Rule 5 eligibility gives the Jays less incentive to trade him, not more. They have time with him, and a lot can happen in two years, including trading him for someone else with 2-3 years of control instead of 1. A more realistic trade candidate due to Rule 5 eligibility might be Moreno since Kirk already beat him to the 40 man and Jansen still has 4 years of control. I wouldn't move him for Bryant, but he's probably a candidate to get moved.
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Cano has 2/48 left on his contract after this season. Since he's losing all of the $24m in 2021, I can't see him retiring and missing out on the $48m he has left. He's clearly lost his HOF chances, though. If he didn't lose it after the first suspension, then he has definitely lost it now.
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If Bryant is a legit non tender candidate for the Cubs (I don't think he is), then trading for him makes a lot of sense. I'm sure the Cubs can get some value in a trade for him, so a non tender doesn't make much sense, but hard to say with the Covid environment whether a ~$20m rental 3B is going to be in high demand. If the Jays are seriously after Lindor, then I wonder if they'd have interest in Baez. Not a fan of Baez's BB/K rate, but he's clearly a legit SS and likely more extendable than Lindor is.
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The play-in tournament during a normal season is a ridiculous idea. There is no incentive to getting the 8th seed in the NBA. It's not a crapshoot. It's basically a guaranteed sweep or best case maybe a gentleman's sweep, especially in a non bubble environment where homecourt advantage exists again. It made sense to do it this season due to the pandemic, but can't believe they are continuing it.
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Curious what Yu by himself would cost if he's made available. He's been a beast the last season and a half (5.4 WAR, 2.54 FIP, 12.04 K/9, and 1.20 BB/9 in his last 25 starts dating back to last season). It might be wishful thinking as he does have 3 years left on his deal, and if the Cubs rebuild/retool, they might look to move the impending FA's rather than him (or simply try for one more year in a s***** division), but if they are open to moving him, then he'd be my top target. Depends what direction they plan to go in.
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If the Cubs are possibly retooling/rebuilding, what about Darvish at 3/59? Had a great second half in 2019, and then followed it up with an even better 2020 by beating up on the same scrubs that Bauer beat up on. It would be his age 34-36 seasons, so who knows how long he holds up, but he looks a lot better than the non-Bauer FA options.
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The Cubs have a bunch of interesting players on the last year of their deals (Bryant, Baez, Rizzo). Plus there is Darvish with 3/59 left on his deal. Will be interesting to see what Hoyer does.
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Not sure what type of return the Rangers would get for one year of Lynn. I wouldn't give up a top prospect for him either, but I'm assuming due to lack of team control it wouldn't require one. Depends on what type of return they are looking for. I think a trade for someone like Lynn is more realistic than a one year deal for some of the names mentioned, primarily because of what you said. The Jays are not a team that pitchers who want to rebuild value will go to, for a multitude of reasons. Ray is just someone who happened to enjoy his time here so that gave the team the leg up on him. I don't think other FA's in similar spots would feel the same way.
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I wouldn't mind one of the high upside targets (Kluber, Paxton), assuming they'd be willing to take a pillow contract with the Jays (not an easy bargaining position), but preferably the Jays would also add someone who is a more reliable top/mid rotation option. The only pitcher who I can think of that mixes reliability/performance and might be available in this market is Lance Lynn. Find a way to trade for him and then sign Paxton or Kluber (or someone in that category), and the rotation would suddenly look pretty decent with real depth behind them.
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Morton apparently wants to stay in Florida, so unless that changes, I don't think the Jays have a shot. Obviously if he's willing to go to the highest bidder regardless of location, then a one year deal for him would be the ideal fit. This does seem like the type of market where if the Jays are going to go big on someone, it would be better to do it on a position player (Springer or DJ specifically). Other than Bauer, I'm lukewarm on the free SP's. Almost all of them come with risk and varying degrees of upside, and I don't think there is one besides Bauer I'd go more than 1-2 years on and feel confident about it (mostly due to health, ex. Paxton, Kluber, Archer).
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After Bauer and Tanaka (and Morton who definitely won't sign with the Jays), the SP market as a whole is filled with pitchers coming off injury/down years (Kluber, Paxton, Odorizzi, Quintana, Archer, etc). Ray is included in that group as well and the Jays signed him. Upside is there on all of them but health/performance is going to be hard to predict. I've said before I think they end up with 2 more SP's before the off season is over, but I have no clue which direction they'll end up going in. The trade market might end up being a better option.
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Syndergaard is a free agent after 2021. Time to right the wrong from 2013.
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The Marlins roster on the big league level and minor leagues are very heavily Latino/Hispanic. I don't think it matters from a PR/optics standpoint that Ng is Asian instead of Latino. As long as she is good at her job, and builds a winner, that's all fans will really care about. I think Jeter is more concerned about building a loyal fan base in a predominately Latino area, and that's where identifiable players will be important. Ng and front office people in general will always be in the background.
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