Interestingly your second point, despite how stupid your first was (hint: not everything is random) , agreed with my point, which you initially disagreed with...
To help you out some regarding your first analogy, it would be better if you took your car hitting wall scenario, using it to attempt to learn the driver's skill, and instead of determining them to be a bad driver based on whether they hit a wall, look at the random elements around the situation (such as, perhaps a truck ran them into a wall?)
Either way, since you agree his babip will increase from 140 I'm happy to see we are in agreement