According to various sources our payroll right now is about $102m. I still personally believe that after last year's high of $140m it's going to drop significantly to around $100-120m. Last year the pattern was pretty obvious: no-one of significance signed in the off-season, no-one of interest signed during the season and nobody picked up before the trade deadline. $138m was our absolute limit as set by Rogers and in fairness the money was not spent well.
All the factors are against our splashing out the cash this off-season:
1) Rogers love of all things hockey
2) The presence of significant salary albatrosses for 2015 that no-one else will want without a large portion of their salary being eaten (Buehrle, Reyes, Dickey, Romero)
3) AA's dislike of long contracts (again to be fair I tend to agree with this one)
4) The total lack of achievement by this core group of players for 2 years suggests that a few 'tweaks' would not dramatically improve the situation. Why throw good money after bad?
5) The number of teams that are looking to reload and retool who actually have money to spend. It's not just the usual suspects (LAD, NYY, BOS etc.), but also the Royals, Orioles, Detroit, Rangers etc. who are potentially genuine contenders.
6) The general undesirability of the Toronto market for free agents, that can force overpay or lead to suspect trades as an alternative
Not overly optimistic to be honest.