BigCecil

SWR FIP 3.95. Worth 3 times the fWAR of Berrios for ML min. Might stick as a 4-5.

An incredible catch. A great starter outing, and we score one run in L. Kind of sums up our season. Congratulations Canadian men’s soccer team!

I haven’t looked at his heat map but he seems that he can be deadly down in the zone yanking balls to RF.

I think he could be a fixture on a lot of playoff teams. Just depends on their roster construction. Maybe they have heavy bats in the corner OF spots etc? His CF D and ability to run into 20+ HRs is valuable. He is a 2-3 WAR player, who if hot at all could be playoff series force both ways. If he is cold at the plate, his D doesn't slump.

He has 2000 PAs as a 96 bat. Currently right at 95. His statcast page is a nitemare. His average and max EVs in '24 - less than Morenos. Hot or cold streaks are irrelevant with that sample size.

Move him. Look at what the CHISOX for for Giolito rental in '23. Dare to dream we could pull similar off for Kooch. LAA are gods gift to trade partners. We just need a desperate team. In that sense the 3rd wildcard is helpful. Kooch is a pretty valuable starter - long man - pen option for playoff run, with a 3.60 FIP and ability to K.

That is so cool for your grandson. They will love it regardless. And that’s a good thing. Started taking my son at 4 in the Colby Rasmus era (we still play his walk up country song) and as you say that solidifies a love of the game through all the highs and lows. He is now a die hard Jays fan and I hope same for your grandson.

I was thinking this morning about '21 and many of our reactions on here the day after we were ousted from playoffs after having incredible seasons from Ray, Teo, Vlad & Semien. Some were optimistic saying "what great experience for our young talent, and if we only played the whole season at RC we would have dominated. We will continue to improve." Nothing wrong with that, its just baseball performance isn't linear. Sometimes you have to jump on the opportunity hard and push more chips in. Others were "What a waste. I hope to f*** we didn't just blow our best shot in this window." Been a tough time. I feel in a place I've not been since '77. When the teams have sucked in past it was low expectations and I didn't get as pissed as I am now. I knew what I was in for and soaked up the good stuff and funny moments with Kawasaki or big crazy comebacks from multiple grand slams Steve Pearce. Or big Shawn Green Delgado seasons...or starts from Doc or Clemens. I hitter Brendan Morrow. Wins and big moments were all found money joys. Our global catering company catered everything at Skydome. In the late 90's we went from 170 corporate boxes being sold to 7. It was a disaster. I just don't see baseball fans in Canada giving Rogers the support if the team continues on this trajectory. The Leafs? Sure. Its a hockey town. I feel completely the opposite now in terms of joy factor and expectations. Mad at the FO at times irrationally loathing new cup holders, $17 beers and our old s***** expensive team with a s***** farm. I'm wishing for low expectations again. The Board and committee will keep Shatkins in place through to off season with tighter restrictions on approvals, and then punt Ross and Schneider. Shapiro will be on shorter leash but stay...and we start again in re- tool mode.

Just looking this morning. Since the trade of LGJ + Moreno for Varsho 1.5+ seasons ago, both Moreno and Varsho have been produced the exact same WAR total of 3.8 LGJ was a 2 WAR player in '23 and is having a 1.3 WAR '24 so far.

Long term wife and 2 kids. Don’t think so.

Like him or not David Samson interesting on Blair and Barker today. Spoke on Jays: - 2024 is over. Its now about the deadline and off season. - Loves Vlad and his Dad but Vlad will want a 10 year deal, and to be paid as one of the Top 3 offensive players in the game. No way he over performs the deal = Bad investment. We have to pass on both Bo and Vlad. Move them out. - Change the window, it doesn't have to be a rebuild. Not a tank situation. More of a re tool. The ownership has the $. - Move pieces in and out and change the window dressing. Not a fire sale. - We always got more value for pitchers at the deadline and bats in the off season. Lots of buyers in the off season for big bat potential. - Owners fired his GM. He didn't really want to. Doesn't just look at record of the team. Thats more about changing the Mgr. - Went into why so few firings of FO people mid season. Anyway...interesting perspective FWIW.

I realize KK sucks but sac bunts suck even more.

An idiot GM gave 6/140 to Javier Baez as a reflection of their view of his value, so maybe.

Very interested. If the Jays believed he was really even close to this ceiling at the MLB level it would beg the question why did they wait so long. He looks awesome right now anyway. Pitch selection. Extra base power. Fingers crossed he can handle adjustments now that he will be on the radar of teams we face.

Cuas and effect = 6 to 2

The FO(next) should test Varsho's market value. Total of 3.7 WAR in 1.5 seasons for us. Current 92 wRC+ & 95 for career through 2000 PAs. 96-99% of MLB hit the ball harder on average, and have a better expected wOBA in '25. K% up BB% up in '25. MAX EV 108. 28 and getting more expensive. $6M AAV in '24. Under control '25 and '26. FA in '27 If another GM has a run prevention focus fever dream, he could be useful to them. Alternatively, if no blow the socks off offers, stick him in CF full time and let him run into 20 HRs and play elite D. He is an emotional fan & board fav, so stick around for retool to add stability and put people in seats and eyeballs on the TV screens.

I know. Sucker GM born in every minute? Easier to move than say a Springer deal but it’s a small relative problem now that will only metastasize.

On the one hand, the track record of IL history is one good indicator of future health. In Berrios's case he has had a rubber arm. On the other hand Berrios is 30 now with 1325 IP. You would have to think over time the IP might take a toll on his stuff? They would be wise to move him given the trend.

Yep. He can opt out after 2026. The way he is pitching no chance that happens. FA deals are great to augment a roster to put it over the top in a window, but there is no value substitute for a solid drafting and development record. Guaranteed a lot of casuals still think he is an “ace” so Rogers might keep him around.

Berrios quietly trending worse than 2022 this year. FIP of 5.05 with his K rate down 2/9. xERA of 4.50. Stuff is no bueno. He is still eating a lot of innings and with the price of pitching prior to last free agency off season $19M AAV is not horrible. But his value is diminished.

They are terrible. Ironically most of alleged noodle bat Moreno's numbers aren't great, but much better than Varshos - avg EV, Hard hit %, xSLG Varsho is 28 with 1900 career PAs - stick him in CF every day to play elite D, and run into the odd home run = 2 to 3 WAR. All good.

His Hard Hit% (11th percentile) and Avg EV (2nd percentile) etc are brutal. His xSLG is 1st percentile. A wRC+ of 94. He runs into some balls. A 28 year old with 1900 PAs who should be in CF. We know what he is by now. His tools are he is an elite defender who runs into some. He is a valuable player. I doubt we will see a 4.4 WAR season again from him or close to it.

When their drafting and development failed they pivoted and threw FA money at the team to catch the window, which half ass worked. Now you deal with the back half of the deals for Springer, Gausman and Berrios, and the consequences. I don’t think you will see Berrios take his opt out after 2026 season.

The resurrection summer of George continues.

lol. Im no expert on framing. I’m looking forward to robo ump appeals. I am not sure how baseball savant correlates the stats. Moreno is 80th percentile and Kirk is 88th. I just assume they have a defensible rationale.