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BigCecil

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Everything posted by BigCecil

  1. BigCecil
    Fair enough. I agree that with the 3rd Wildcard lots of teams have a fighting chance to make a Wildcard series. 85 ish should do it ya. I think at this point its a pretty safe bet to say 4 of 6 years of Springer's deal could suck. Not just the last couple. FA median cost/WAR last off season was $4.4M. 3 WAR for $50M in 23 & 24 is not Rendonian, but its just not a good investment. There is a glimmer of hope in his xwOBA, and if he stays healthy maybe there is a resurrection year. But I don't think it would be wise for the FO to bet on it.
  2. BigCecil
    Springer being healthy, which is unusual, put up 3 WAR for $50M over the last 2 seasons. A 2.5 WAR season would be a godsend, but I’d take the under.
  3. BigCecil
    Berrios enigma. Almost a 5 FIP and xERA of 5 and sub 1 fWAR season. K rate down 2 per 9. Been lucky this season. His carrer FIP and ERA are almost identical. Not a FIP beater normally.
  4. BigCecil
    Yes, the fanbase got re engaged nationally in 2015 because we won the AL East after being in the wilderness since '93. 2016 was also exciting. 21, 22 and 23 we were in the hunt. The late 90s they went from 170 corporate boxes sold to 7. It was depressing. Higher ticket prices matter, but being in the wildcard hunt with a 3rd spot now should keep attendance and eyeballs at solid levels. The renos will help, but that has a shelf life. They have to put a legit competitive team on the field or our history says attendance and viewers wanes pretty quickly.
  5. BigCecil
    Hortwitz has impressed. Bit concerned about a 54 wRC+ vs LHP for a DH. But a useful player to have in the line up to work in.
  6. BigCecil
    Kirk creeping up on 3 WAR season. D has been great and the bat has come on after horrible start.
  7. BigCecil
    Looks good. Gausman of old.
  8. BigCecil
    Brandon Lowe seems to KILL us. Dong off Swanson. Thankfully, we got the extra years of control of him in that deal for Teo. Ladies and Gentlemen...your 2017 Jays in 2024. Can't wait for this season to come to an end and watch real teams in the playoffs. Also, Shatkins can be blasted off into the sun anytime.
  9. BigCecil
    This FO record of developing impact pen arms & starters for us is gruesome. We would all love to see more options developed in house. But watching Yariel all year & today, you have to think given the cost of pitching that the $6.4M AAV for him should be valuable for us over the next 4 seasons. There is lots to like.
  10. BigCecil
    Just depends on the deal. Someone is going to pay him a lot I think. He is 33 and hasn't exactly been consistent. I can appreciate the criticism from Astro's fans but its kind of funny how badly that deal got panned at the deadline. Now he is shoving for them. Watched that start Thursday and his stuff looked electric.
  11. BigCecil
    Straight the HOF for this unicorn. I’ve seen a lot of greatness in baseball but this guy is a new level of elite. Need a new descriptor word coined to describe him.
  12. BigCecil
    Yordan Alvarez is only 20 months older than Vlad. Alvarez has a CAREER 166 wRC+ and 23 fWAR. Alvarez signed for 6/115. Vlad's '24 wRC+ is 163 and we all know he was a 1.3 WAR player in 2023. We have pissed away Vlad's two elite seasons. Vlad is not signing for any discounts. Thats for certain and thats why he isn't extended already. He sees himself as one of the top 3 in MLB. He isn't. He is not worth the money and term he wants.
  13. BigCecil
    Krylian Nostradamus post ^ from April 4th this '24 season. Pretty funny to read back ITT the hopium being smoked by many at that time (not that authentic optimism is a bad thing - others just shilled for this FO). After a couple wins, the '24 Jays are pretty much on the 76 win pace of the 2017 team. The O's won 75 that season. I thought 81 wins was about as likely as 85 - but I honestly didn't think it would be this rough of a '24. I'm sure as hell not enthused about rolling it back in '25.
  14. BigCecil
    Hell of a job by Gausman to limit the early soft contact and some spotty control damage, with some help from Barger. Get out of this 4th and we still good.
  15. BigCecil
    1st percentile on Avg EV contact given up. Rockets all day. 7.8 /9 K rate. FIP over 4.50 Hard hit and barrel rates off him cringe. Nobody wanted him much this past deadline, with the $10.5M AAV cost. Having said they we are stuck with him, and we'll need his arm in '25 with the amount of holes to fill in the pen.
  16. BigCecil
    Dam. What an outing Bowden. Well done. No way you don’t get an MLB starting job in 2025.
  17. BigCecil
    This is exciting. Shades of Stieb and Morrow starts. Go lights out Bowden!
  18. BigCecil
    Nice job by the finest FO in the game selling high on IKF, and dumping that deal. He has turned back into IKF in PITT.
  19. BigCecil
    Wild game. We kinda saw the challenge of Barger and Horwitz IF D. Deal was too $ for Green coming off surgery. A solid 6-7-8 inning arm in a good pen. He is giving up more avg EV than 98% of MLB arms. His K rate is down. He has been pretty lucky this season, when he has been successful. Jays made it interesting today. Horwitz remains intriguing. He has had some lulls, to be expected, but he bounces back. Need a position for him.
  20. BigCecil
    Gross. 4.5 FIP with a K rate under 8/9 and 0 WAR for Green - all for the pen bargain bin price of $10.5M AAV. Never liked that deal coming off the surgery. He isn't the guy he was in 2021. Unfortunately for our pen where everything is relative, he has been one of our better stabilizing lights out leverage arms.
  21. BigCecil
    Great story Francis. Rowdy legacy. If he can actually be a legit 4/5 some serious found money for us.
  22. BigCecil
    Its simple for Vlad. His risk is injury or a season more like '23 in '25. If Jays put enough term/AAV in an overpay on the table to offset that risk he would sign here long term. Otherwise, he goes to market. Soto isn't a good comparable but if he gets huge money, Vlad's agent will push towards that ceiling over whatever another 1B like Alonso gets. The last 4 seasons his lowest xwOBA is .351 Even though he adds so little D value, at 26 thats going to be tantalizing for some GMs
  23. BigCecil
    I remember Big Papi pre season interview on B and B where he was supremely confident Vlad would have a big year. For awhile it didn’t look like it would happen. He was right. A fav target around here for under performance he sure has turned that around even if the team hasn’t. Only an overpay will keep him from the market unless he goes back 2023 ish next year. The FO was getting credit for not extending at one point. Its going to be interesting how this all plays out.
  24. BigCecil
    Chris Sale and Aaron Bummer have worked out extremely well so far for ATL. More controversial AA moves. Bummer has a 2.10 FIP, 11K/9 cut his BBs by 3/9. Robbie Ray as a reliever turnaround like.
  25. BigCecil
    Varsho is 143rd in MLB with a .255 xwOBA. 2.2 WAR Guy is an elite defender and likable player, but way over fapped.
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