BigCecil

I'm responding to what he said. I think 23% is highly improbable and I'm prepared to back up my view view a bet. He is dancing all over like a drunk ballerina. If he truly believes 1/4 is not highly improbable, it should be a decent bet for the Sheriff. Couple good weeks of play is all cash for him.

Blah blah blah....How about you just stop skating and talking ********, and take the bet? lol You won't because you were talking out your ass as usual. Some "Sheriff" you are...

No, you said "It’s not highly improbable" ^. Because you said and think its not highly improbable they make the playoffs, I'll be benevolent and do you a favor. I'll bet you $500 now they don't make a WC.

Speaking of melodramatic ^. Is 23% more highly probable or improbable? Want to make a bet?

I often wonder how SEA fans view it? They had the likes of Ichiro, King Felix, Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez etc. SEA came into the league in 1977 with the Jays, and have never won a World Series. We have 2. TEX Rangers finally broke through in '23 as well.

So you're saying there is chance??? !!!! Of course its possible. Its highly improbable. Its just math. And yes if we have a good 2 week stretch math will change. If you are seeing things in this team that still give you that warm fuzzy feeling about our chances, then more power to you, and I mean that sincerely. Im hitting 3 games in TOR June 3-6 so I hope to f*** they are playing better.

Agreed. Our win totals are relative to our competitions, for the playoff spots. They are lucky to have the wins they do have now given their run differential. I would prefer neither are handling this deadline but definitely not Ross. If ownership is stuck on Shapiro thats fine by me. Don't want to die on that hill. At this point the FO and all of us fans have built up so many inherent layers of bias since 2016-17 we can't see straight. We really need fresh, detached, clear heads & eyes making these huge decisions.

Thanks mon Cap-i-tan Obvious. I loved the buzz and excitement of that Division chase and win in 2015. Russell Martin HR call in french to beat the Yankees down the stretch. Catching 3 games vs LAA for my 50th in California watching Price on the bump, and balls being smashed all over the f***ing place by Mount Crushmore. That was coupled with playoff series that delivered iconic moments good and bad, after being in the bleak wilderness since start of 1994. It was just f***ing electric. There will never be another Game 5 vs TEX. As you know at that time we had the longest no playoff stretch in MLB of any team.

26% of season complete. To reach 90 wins, which is current projected number required to get a 3rd AL wildcard, the Jays need to play .592 baseball starting today, for the entire remainder of season. To give perspective, 4 teams played better than that for the 2023 season - O's, Rays, LAD, ATL. Optimism at some point meets reality & probabilities.

You know when I look back at it, winning does give me a natural bias affinity to those players.The 1987 young team through to 1993. 2015-16 and those in charge at the time those eras. Was the same for Expos. I remember watching Tim Raines first ever game, playing 2B. Vlad Sr coming up. Blue Monday almost killed me. I remember after that loss walking to a high school dance that night in depressed stupor. Steve Rogers. Guy was a stud - deserved better. Then the '94 strike that buried us. What a team that was. Moises and Felipe. I can coast on those iconic moments when they go our way through a lot of lean times.

I didn't care for JPR but he had a tall order in the AL East. Guy didn't have the payroll relative to todays Jays - and the wildcard era has changed the whole approach to the season and deadline for most teams.

Schwarber hit .197 with 47 HRs and a .333 OBP. His D was so bad his WAR was 0.9 in 2023. He is the Silverbach who actually hits home runs.

Varsho has 150 PAs. His chase and BB rates percentiles way better than '23. Sitting on a 113 wRC+ and on pace for 28 HRs. 27% better than last yr. Big time valuable player if he can maintain the approach and outcomes.

92,91,89 wins the last 3 seasons. Jays have lots of issues but Vlad is the least of them at the moment with a 125 wRC+. Bo has always been flawed and I never wanted to pay a premium for him as a SS on a long term deal. His reliance on BABIP, with low BB high chase rates was never attractive for an expensive deal. Could be worse. Could be the Rays loosing their generational talent SS you just signed under market long term, and have no asset to get value from. For me, its more about the upcoming deadline and off season now, and what happens next. The cake for this season was baked in '23 and last off season. Its angel food cake.

Shapiro is a very smooth talking politician. 10 minutes into his 2023 post season talk he had resurrected both Ross and Schneider from the graves they dug themselves. Blows me away some of the excuses I see for accountability. If he were a PM or a Premier, who make a small fraction of the money of these Execs and are actually responsible for important things, there would be far more heat. In PHI, BOS or NY markets, for example, there is no chance of this track record of failure delivering on commitments made years ago. I don't know whats up with TOR based teams, but Shanahan and Shapiro have morphed into the same protected deity status.

Been reflecting on status of our team and looking back on lots of 2016-17 media interviews with Shapiro, talking about investment in development and perpetual waves of impact talent coming up from the Minors. It all sounds awesome. His thesis that you don’t need to be a “window” team because we will build a sustainable competitive team is tantalizing. What actually happened? I remember not really liking him chucking AA under the bus at the time, but I was excited that we were going to have a cutting edge kick ass sustainable winner based on these waves. I had hoped that he was going to renovate the team, and not just the stadium. It’s a popular myth on this board that Shapiro is not involved in baseball operations. I know for certain that is inaccurate. Anyone who has worked at higher levels in in a big pubco knows that any GM has very rigid approval thresholds on decisions that impact asset valuations and capex. There are good reasons for this reality that should be obvious. The buck stops with the guy who is accountable for the valuations, forecast and budget he sold the Board. He has to review, give input and approve all material decisions. This team has become the exact inverse of what Shapiro promoted. The Emperor has no clothes. It’s an old, very expensive team jacked up on Free Agents predominantly. They won 92,91,89 games 21-23. They benefitted from expanded wildcard. Pretty dam solid, but it’s a sustainability mirage without more drafting & development success. The 9 year sample size objectively is not good. A lot of their top picks and prospects were traded to create the past and current roster construction. The point being I don’t know why we would trust them to do another reboot/rebuild and handle the end of this era, which is now right in our windshield. We all know only 26% of ’24 is complete, and we can all look at fangraphs playoff odds. Obviously they could get on a roll, but its bad bet. At a minimum Ross needs to go. Sooner the better to prep for deadline. Shapiro has acknowledged that while the 2017 season was a disappointment, it was not unexpected, terming the club “fragile” because of the age of the 25-man roster, and a lack of upper level minor league talent. Shapiro has an eye of the future, stating that, “We’re trying to construct a development system that maximizes the potential of our players,” and he says that he’s encouraged by this year’s draft, the work of Assistant GM Andrew Tinnish (who heads up international scouting and player development), and by the development being done at the minor league level. “That building effort is a long-term play,” he added for good measure. Shapiro does not believe in taking short cuts when it comes to building a winner. "We are close to getting a significant renovation that I think has a chance to be a game-changer on both resources and culture for our player development system…ultimately, it’s shifting Dunedin away from just being a spring training site, where we prepare our players for the season, to a 365 days of the year, state-of-the-art training and rehabilitation centre, and a base for our US operations." - October 2017 Mark Shapiro says his club’s farm system is better than it was two years ago, but still largely a work in progress. “Not where it needs to be,” Shapiro told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand in a recent Q&A. “I think we’re really excited about what’s happening at [high Class A], at Dunedin, the Florida State League and below. Still concerned about Double-A and Triple-A, the depth of prospects there.” Shapiro said he would rank Toronto’s farm “probably in the upper half, maybe closing in on the upper third” of all MLB organizations and highlighted the success of top prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who both began the season in Lansing before advancing to Dunedin. “You don’t just need two guys, you need waves of guys,” said Shapiro. “And behind them, you need another wave of guys. I feel like that’s coming. It’s probably two to four years away that it’s going to get here, but when it comes, what we’ve continued to execute on whether it’s [assistant GM] Andrew Tinnish leading us in international, we’ve got waves of guys coming. “I’m encouraged by that.” August - 2017

Romano is rule 5 found money. But he is 31 now and costs $8M ARO likely to go up in arb. Maybe some decline ^. He has been rock solid for us and is a nice piece for team looking to add a leverage arm for a run. Much like we picked up Hicks last deadline and we know what he cost.

I'm there since last off season. Not delivering on the hype & promises on drafting and development that they made in 2016-17 ensures I that don't want them in charge for the next critical phase of decision making. At a minimum, Ross needs to move on. He has had his chance and a good run overall. The off season we had wasn't great IMO, but the paramount reason I would like to see change in leadership is ^ above. We need fresh, objective and more clinical eyeballs on our current state, and the big decisions in the windshield. With our big payroll, and a GTA plus national audience, this team could be a juggernaut franchise. But the foundation of a "sustainable winner" is D & D.

Starting to feel like 85 wins I predicted for season was high. The comparisons from a couple we heard very early on in '23 of this team to 2017, I just couldn't fathom. Becoming eerily prescient at this point.

Our pitching and D can't bail us out every game, and when you score this few runs, we are proper f***ed. Brutal loss after some elite pen work and D.

lol lol

Yep. Only since Doug Ault hit 2 home runs on a snowy day in 1977.

I don't doubt it. He is a smart hitter. Just being facetious at ol' Tabby's expense. Hazel Mae made a big deal, and the camera panned on JT talking to Biggio a few weeks ago on the dugout steps, while the broadcast was going on about the knowledge he was passing on. Whatever wisdom JT imparted on Biggio, it sure hasn't taken yet.

Tabby would have been in full rut over JT if he was still on our broadcast: "He is a ballplayer" "He knows how to play the game" "He has big strong hands" "He is just a professional hitter" "He brings vetrin presents to this clubhouse and is like having another hitting coach" ...and so on.

Silverbach will go. They will give Votto a shot. Swap out lotto tickets. Much as I loved the short story non story around Votto I’d be happier just to give the Bisons Horwitz some at bats.